More Kessel vs. Toews

Interesting stats--they both have played 32 games so far this season...

Kessel has taken slightly over double the number of shots than Toews has (159 vs. 74) --Kessel has 14g and Toews 16g (of course Kessel has way more assists: 22 to just 8 for Toews) ---but it is those glaring shooting % differentials that stand out : just 8.9% for Kessel to 21.6% for Toews...so it seems a valid statement that Kessel is far more creative but not really a sniper (he just generates so many shooting chances--or one might also say he wastes a lot of shots which are ineffective) whereas Toews is more of a sniper and has to improve to get more shots off (imagine how many goals he'd score if he even got to 3/4 of Kessel's shot total...

What I cannot determine is the % of shots Kessel takes on the PP vs. 5x5
and the same for Toews--the difference in the relative PP dominance for Minnesota vs. for North Dakota could also play a big part in this...

One might speculate as to what better goaltending and defense at the NHL level
will mean to the two--but my bet is on the player with the much higher shooting% to weather that increase in difficulty better in terms of becoming a top goal scorer...the better shooter is also liable to survive best (as a goal scorer)should his linemates at the NHL level not be very good (both these kids will be going to bottom feeder teams inthe draft) ...one could argue that the better playmaker (Kessel) might not continue in that advantage if his NHL linemates have trouble finishing after he sets them up...conversely,if the problem was that the team picking Kessel has finishers but no playmakers--then he might help them a lot
(this assumes Kessel's playmaking on the PP has not been inflated due to the Potulny/Irmen excellence) ...

In short--NHL GM's will need to decide if they want a more dynamic and perhaps dominant player (Kessel) or a more efficient goal scorer (Toews),and whose abilities will translate better at the next level playing in the NHL...

 

You gusy think they will be playing in the NHL next year? I don't think so from what I've seen of them. what about you guys?

 

Sorry hf50. I stopped readin after "Interesting stats"

 

I seriously doubt it.

 

Agreed. Neither Kessel or Toews will be NHL ready next season. As for this thread, it's readily apparent that the poster has no clue what type of player Kessel is or what his function on the Gophers is. He is THE offensive catalyst, especially on the PP. He's the guy that stirs the drink, and as such takes alot of shots. It would be nice if he finished a bit more, but the results for the team in general and his linemates in particular are there. He's shown himself to be a much better playmaker than anticipated and is very creative. Crunching numbers doesn't tell the whole story, especially if you haven't seen a player like Kessel live or on television.

 

I don't think so either.

Just some things that the stats don't tell. Kessel seems to generate alot of his offense off of the rush. One of the more impressive things that Kessel does is shoot while he's skating. There aren't many players that do that and he looks a little like a mirrored version of Alex Mogilny when doing it. Another thing is that Kessel misses the net alot, at least earlier in the season, so those numbers don't truely indicate the number of shots he's taken. He does get a ton of juice on that wrist shot though.

Toews seems to get open alot around the net and scores gritty goals. He doesn't plant himself in front of the net but uses his sense to go in and out of traffic. He can score on the rush too, like the Sakic-like two on one he had this past weekend, but for the most part his goals seem to come off of a short game. He has a great shot and a great release.

 

I had my doubts early in the season, but Kessel seems to have adjusted nicely. He still needs to get much stronger though.
Another year at the U (and a shot at the Hobey) will do him good.

I can see Toews being at UND for probably 2 more years. He's still really young. Age wise the guy should be a true freshman next year. The year after that, UND should be 'his' team.

 

I'm combining stats with having seen Toews in about 10 games and Kessel in about 6 and what i've noticed in how much each player is on the PP. The Gophers strive on their powerplay. Year in and out it's top 5 in the country. Kessel is benefitting from playing on an amazing powerplay unit. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a great player, but just look at his stats 5v5 vs on the PP. While Kessel makes some great passes, a lot of his assists are cleaning up after his shots. Kessel (with all of the shots he takes) gets the assists after the goalie makes the 1st save. Kessel also scores most of his goals on the PP. 8 of his 14 are with a man advantage and just 1 is 5v5. The PP numbers are amazing, but he's being held in check for the most part when things are even.

Meanwhile, Toews is not a part of UND's #1 powerplay. He is usually on the 2nd PP unit with TJ Oshie (STL), Chris Porter (CHI), Brian Lee (OTT) and Taylor Chorney (EDM). That's four freshmen and one junior on the 2nd unit. They're still young and learning how to work together. As you can see... the team has gotten a lot better over the past couple weeks and Toews has started scoring more goals. It's a chicken/egg thing... but I think Toews has provided a spark for UND.

I'm a bit biased, because I've seen Toews more, but I'd take him over Kessel. There are a lot of players in the NHL who can shoot the puck... but there aren't a lot of snipers. If you put Toews on the Gophers and in the same situation as Kessel... I think his numbers would be higher, specifically PP. If you put Kessel on UND, I'd imagine his 5v5 numbers would be better, but his PP would suffer significantly.

Both players have a great upside, both will be amazing... if I were a gm I'd take Toews... but having kessel wouldn't be bad either.

 

Agreed. Frankly, if I was a scout I would be alot more enthused about a guy getting a bunch of shots but having a lower shooting % than I would about a guy getting not that many & having a high shooting %, & even more so if the guy getting alot of shots was a good playmaker. Over the course of time, shooting % tends to level out somewhat between around 11-15%.

 

So now Kessel isn't a "sniper" because his production in his freshman year lags behind his shot totals? Going in he was known as a goal scorer in the Bure mode and now he's merely adequete when it comes to finishing and he's more of a PP specialist/playmaker? Curious.........

 

Yep your right on

 

I agree. Kessel can do alot more then whats advertised right now. How he has 14 goals is shocking. But if you ask me, I will take Kessel over Toews rather quite easily.

 

A lot of kessel shots lead to assists, and penalties. So i do not think his lack of actualy scoring goals means he is less productive. The two players IMO think differently too. Kessel i can see having the puck and thinking hey shoot it, and good things will happen. More of a now type of player. Towes in the same position might think, pass to the open guy, he passes over there we get a shot from the point and then a rebound or we just keep control and good things will happen the longer we have the puck in the zone.

If you look a guy like Sakic. I think it is much harder for a center to be a pure goal scorer vs a wing. Towes is playing more wing and Kessel a center. Sakic is a career 13% guy. He has had his, 8.4% and 10% years too. Now I know Kessel and Towes hit pipes and been unlucky at times. If Kessel plays at the U next year and is still at 8% i might worry. But he has been more unlucky to no luck at all this year then anything else. There have been times the goalie flinched when Kessel shot because he got hit with the puck and never saw it.

 

Wow.

With the exception of Porter, that would be one of the better PP's in the NHL in seven years.

 

my bet is on the kid who is second in scoring on the #1 team in the nation. as a freshman. who should be a HS senior. Who plays with ineffective linemates 5v5

 

lol what the heck is that? That means absolutly nothing...

 

Plus he's a puckhog the gophers play the exactgame needed to match his strengths!

 

Ok--but we still come back to the same question: IF Toews was given the same featured time on Minnesota's potent PP unit as Kessel has had this season--would he have similar points as Kessel does? Would he have lots more goals because he shoots better and also lots more shots because Goligoski is such a great PP QB from the point,and because of sheer increased PP time on a #1 unit--and also would not Toews have more assists because Potulny and Irmen are still very very good finishers?

To say that Kessel is the biggest "catalyst" of the Minnesota PP is to degade all the other great parts of it --one could argue that if Kessel's low shooting % equalled Toews' high shooting % --that Minnesota PP would be even more amazing
than it already is...as I said--we'll never know for sure--that is why IMO--some scouts will get it right (recommending taking Kessel ahead of Toews) =if in truth, Kessel is "THE" catalyst for the Minnesota lethal PP --or get it wrong (ie. Toews is the better prospect,and Kessel just benefits immensely from the talent he plays with on that PP ) ...chicken &egg arguments...

 

Just stop.

 

All I can tell you is there is no scout on the face of this planet that would suggest Toews is more of a sniper than Kessel. All players go through "slumps," even great goalscorers. Look at Bill Guerin with the Stars this year.

 

What drives you to hate Kessel so much that you come up with nonsense like this?

 

It's not hate, but sheer ignorance. He has NO idea how the Gophers as a team operates.

 

I appreciate both players, but this might not end up being accurate. A lot of scouts have watched the two this year, and they've seen Toews snipe some awfully pretty goals.

 

I've seen Steve Martins "snipe" some awfully pretty goals. Does that make him a sniper? I'm not doubting Toews's goalscoring ability or skill. I'm not sure he's a sniper though.

 

One reason the gophers PP is so good is Kessel. He can skate the puck from end to end and control the zone and set it up. Giving them almost a full 2min to operate. That really helps. He also posses a hard slapper that he can get off as fast as anyone. So when he gets te puck on the half boards and skates it up top, someone has to pay attention to him. He opens the PP up. When that happens our offensive minded D men can jump up in the play or sneak in for an easy tap in. And Kessel has the speed to get back in a hurry should his passes go astray. Those are all things that Towes does not bring to the table. Plus keep in mind several PP were set up by Kessel blowing through the neutral zone and catching a hook or some lazy forward holding up an on rushing wing.

And overall NoDak has 4 less goals then the gophers. Not that big at all. In conference and i think in the NCAA all comparitive stats should use only conference stats the gophers hold a 16 goal lead.

To sum it up. Yes Towes numbers would go higher if he played for the gophers. But not enough to catch Kessel's. Plus he may not even be good enough to crack the MN top PP spot either.