Monahan + Gaudreau vs MacKinnon + Kucherov

Which duo?


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GirardSpinorama

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Aug 20, 2004
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Also, does everyone realize this is a career year for MacKinnon? Same as when Eberle was going to be a franchise player because he could sneeze at a puck and it would go in the opposing net for a season.

edit: And just to be clear for anyone who gets cranky about this: I'm not saying MacKinnon is bad. I'm saying he's probably not going to be an Art Ross challenger on an annual basis. This is just based on the fact that this same thing has happened to dozens of players in the past, and almost none of them repeated it.

Hes the youngest player in this poll.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Jun 29, 2009
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People said exactly the same thing about Eberle. The nice thing about massive jumps in shooting percentage is they almost 100% of the time regress to the norm. Especially in a player who's been in the league for four seasons already. Or do you think Duchene was stealing all of MacKinnon's multivitamins while he was in Colorado?

Why do you keep comparing MacKinnon to Eberle? Eberle's never been a line driver or a guy who can carry a team like MacKinnon is doing.

I mean, I could maybe see an argument for comparing MacKinnon to Hall or something. But bringing up Eberle all the time seems weird to me because even in his best year, Eberle was more of a complimentary player.
 
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SmellOfVictory

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Jun 3, 2011
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Why do you keep comparing MacKinnon to Eberle? Eberle's never been a line driver or a guy who can carry a team like MacKinnon is doing.

I mean, I could maybe see an argument for comparing MacKinnon to Hall or something. But bringing up Eberle all the time seems weird to me because even in his best year, Eberle was more of a complimentary player.
I'm comparing them because they both had a season where their shooting percentages drove through the roof in comparison to their respective career averages, and based on that season people proclaimed them to be better than they are (in MacKinnon's case, better than he likely is long term).

I always use Eberle when someone says "this player is now the greatest" based on a SH% jump season because he just happens to be the first guy I really noticed it happening to (and he got a hefty contract as a result of it). It really doesn't matter if the guy is a line driver, a passenger, a forward, or a dman, because shooting percentage nearly always does the same thing: regresses toward career average over the long term.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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I'm comparing them because they both had a season where their shooting percentages drove through the roof in comparison to their respective career averages, and based on that season people proclaimed them to be better than they are (in MacKinnon's case, better than he likely is long term).

I always use Eberle when someone says "this player is now the greatest" based on a SH% jump season because he just happens to be the first guy I really noticed it happening to (and he got a hefty contract as a result of it). It really doesn't matter if the guy is a line driver, a passenger, a forward, or a dman, because shooting percentage nearly always does the same thing: regresses toward career average over the long term.
...you're talking about the career average of a 22 year old...
 

SmellOfVictory

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Jun 3, 2011
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...you're talking about the career average of a 22 year old...
...who's in his 5th NHL season. This isn't NHL 18. Players don't gain shooting and skating stats until they're 25. Especially high end players, who tend to peak quite early. If you want to prove me wrong, I'd be happy to see a list of established NHLers whose shooting percentages increased by 50% after their 4th season and continued with that percentage career-long. Even five of them would be impressive.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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I'm comparing them because they both had a season where their shooting percentages drove through the roof in comparison to their respective career averages, and based on that season people proclaimed them to be better than they are (in MacKinnon's case, better than he likely is long term).

I always use Eberle when someone says "this player is now the greatest" based on a SH% jump season because he just happens to be the first guy I really noticed it happening to (and he got a hefty contract as a result of it). It really doesn't matter if the guy is a line driver, a passenger, a forward, or a dman, because shooting percentage nearly always does the same thing: regresses toward career average over the long term.

It kind of does matter though, because line drivers or guys who are known for being the ones to create for their line are less likely to regress badly than guys who are complimentary players who just happened to bury an unsustainable amount of chances one given season.

When is the last line driver who had a great season who suddenly regressed to a 50 point guy afterward and never approached that high point again? There's been a tonne of complimentary players who have (Eberle being one of them), but I can't think of any guys who drive their lines who did.
 

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
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It kind of does matter though, because line drivers or guys who are known for being the ones to create for their line are less likely to regress badly than guys who are complimentary players who just happened to bury an unsustainable amount of chances one given season.

When is the last line driver who had a great season who suddenly regressed to a 50 point guy afterward and never approached that high point again? There's been a tonne of complimentary players who have (Eberle being one of them), but I can't think of any guys who drive their lines who did.
Most high end players don't seem to have a single massive swing in SH%, that's true. But when they do have jumps, it goes back down. Benn's SH% climbed as high as 16%, but his career average is around 13%; Iginla was the same; Ovechkin has climbed from 12.5 career to 14.5 some seasons; even Crosby, who is a model of consistency, has seen his SH% fluctuate from 14% career average to 17% over a full season.

And that's just looking at personal sh%, which is only one indicator (also need to look at total on-ice sh%, individual points percentage). I'd bet money on MacKinnon's sh% dropping long term, and his point totals relative to the league dropping as well. Not back to a 50 point player, but certainly below Art Ross contention.
 

Koonta

The Boss Wears White
Jan 1, 2012
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Well so far one person is completely delusional. The people have spoken....this should be put to pasture and erased from our memories forever.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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Most high end players don't seem to have a single massive swing in SH%, that's true. But when they do have jumps, it goes back down. Benn's SH% climbed as high as 16%, but his career average is around 13%; Iginla was the same; Ovechkin has climbed from 12.5 career to 14.5 some seasons; even Crosby, who is a model of consistency, has seen his SH% fluctuate from 14% career average to 17% over a full season.

And that's just looking at personal sh%, which is only one indicator (also need to look at total on-ice sh%, individual points percentage). I'd bet money on MacKinnon's sh% dropping long term, and his point totals relative to the league dropping as well. Not back to a 50 point player, but certainly below Art Ross contention.

But it doesn't always stay down. Just because a player has a high shooting percentage one year and it goes down a bit the next year, doesn't mean you'll never see it go back up again.

Crosby, for example, shot 17.1% when he scored 51 goals. People said he'd never shoot that again because his career average was like 13% and thus, he'd never win another Rocket. Last season, he shot 17.3% en route to 44 goals and his second Rocket. In between those two seasons he shot in 10.7% to 14.5% range, but always fluctuating each year.

Point being, it's not out of the realm of possibility that MacKinnon could shoot 15% again, even if he's probably going to shoot 10-11% most seasons. And even if MacKinnon drops down to average around 11% instead of 15%, he generates enough shots that that's still probably in the 30-goal range each season.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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The guy on our top line who's shooting % I expect to drop significantly after this season is Landeskog's. He's a great defensive player who does a ton of heavy lifting for that line, but he's scored sooooo many flukey goals this year. Just look up that hattrick he scored, avs fans were ripping into his play with the puck all game & two of those should not have bounced in, but at the end of the day Gabe had his hattrick & we could only laugh. It feels like half his goals have either come in games where he was fighting the puck or just didn't make sense :laugh:

MacK's sh% will dip a bit, but if he keeps playing as well as he is moving forward, and continues being as smart with his shots, it shouldn't get anywhere close to his "career averages".

While Rantanen's shouldn't drop much at all: he was around this level last year, he was absolutely lethal in San Antonio as well, and his shot is a part of his games that avs fans have been excited about since the team picked him ahead of Crouse.
 

Ivan13

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May 3, 2011
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Monahan ain't even close to those 3.
How dare you? He is a God among men.

He is amazing defensively, even though he is actually quite bad defensively, he is better than Nate, even though he is not, he is not a product of Johnny, even though he is. Can you even imagine what kind of God like powers he has since he was able to make Flames fans think he is all that, despite being are far inferior player compared to the image they have of him?

You'd think a team with two guys better than Nate, Selke caliber C, best D core in the league and I don't know what else would manage to be a serious contender instead of an afterthought and a model of mediocrity.
 
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