Mock Draft Lottery

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by bit82, Jul 15, 2005.

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  1. bit82

    bit82 Registered User

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    I did mock draft lottery based on tsn's article about how the draft lottery will be structured. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314
    I did this 30 times to see how it turns out. Here are the results
    OTT won 6 times (1 ball)
    PIT won 4 times (3 balls)
    NYI won 3 times (1 ball)
    CHI won 2 times (2 balls)
    MTL won 2 times (1 ball)
    NYR won 2 times (3 balls)
    MIN won 2 times (2 balls)
    BUF won 2 times (3 balls)
    ANA won 1 time (2 bals)
    LA won 1 times (2 balls)
    STL won 1 time (1 ball)
    PHI won 1 time (1 ball)
    CBJ won 1 time (3 balls)
    TOR won 1 time (1 ball)
    CAR won 1 time (2 balls)

    teams with 3 balls won a combined 9 times. (this consisted of 4 teams)
    teams with 2 balls won a combined 7 times. (this consisted of 10 teams)
    teams with 1 ball won a combined 14 times. (this consisted of 16 teams)

    according to this poll, the 4 teams that have 3 balls each will win 30% of the time.
    according to this poll, the 10 teams that have 2 balls each will win 23.3% of the time.
    according to this poll, the 16 teams that have 1 ball each will win 46.7% of the time.

    This poll gave me the idea that the 4 teams that have 3 balls each have the best chance of winning (each of those teams with about a 7.5% chance of winning). Even though the 1 ball teams won the most, 16 teams won a combined 14 times. This gives each one of the 1 ball teams about a 2.9% chance of winning).
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2005
  2. HABIMUS-MAXIMUS

    HABIMUS-MAXIMUS Registered User

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    That's pretty encouraging for every team......pretty ironic that Ottawa won so many times....the odds don't favour one team as much as we thought
     
  3. Impossibles

    Impossibles Registered User

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    How did you simulate the random results?
     
  4. bit82

    bit82 Registered User

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    I wrote down every team on pieces of paper the same size and put the amount of balls which in this case was paper and picked them out a box after the box was shaken so that the same pieces of paper weren't all in the same areas. That's how i did it.
     
  5. al3x

    al3x Registered User

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    there are far more accurate lottery results on other threads
     
  6. dmcilvan

    dmcilvan Registered User

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    There's a 25% chance that a team with three balls with win the lottery(12/48)
    There's a 41.67% chance that a team with two balls with win the lottery(20/48)
    There's a 33.33% chance that a team with one ball with win the lottery(16/48)

    I don't really see how doing a bunch of trials works better for percentages than just some simple math, but it's still interesting that Ottawa won 6 times.
     
  7. Fozz

    Fozz Registered User

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    This is all irrelevant since the draft order wont be determined by the average of a number of draws but by a single, final draw in which anything can happen. We all know the odds: a team with 3 balls has 3 chances out of 48; a team with 2 balls has a 2 in 48 chance and a team with 1 ball has a chance in 48. Those are the odds and they cannot change no matter how much you try.
     
  8. Potted Plant

    Potted Plant Registered User

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    But what is a 3-ball team's chances of getting in the top 7? The top 15? What are the chances that a particular 1-ball team gets a top 5 pick? What are the chances that a particular 3-ball team ends up with a pick after #25?

    Basic arithmetic won't answer those questions. You can sit down with pen and paper and work it out, but that would take all day.

    BTW, the answers to those questions are, in order:
    40.3%
    75.2%
    10.9%
    2.2%
     
  9. DINO22CICCARELLI

    DINO22CICCARELLI Registered User

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    on't you people understand THIS LOTTERY IS RIGGED for the rangers to win? What is it you do not understand? Largest market and needs a influx of talent. This is a no brainer since it is in their interest to place him there. Any questions?
     
  10. Jag68Sid87

    Jag68Sid87 Nothing Else Maattas

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    So I ran the lottery simulator 30 times to see how many teams would get shut out of the top pick. Here are the results, in terms of how many times a team landed the No. 1 pick:

    Minnesota 5 times
    Phoenix 2 times
    Carolina 2 times
    Pittsburgh 2 times
    Vancouver 2 times
    Anaheim 2 times
    Atlanta 2 times
    Nashville 2 times
    Chicago 2 times
    Washington 1 time
    Buffalo 1 time
    Edmonton 1 time
    Montreal 1 time
    Boston 1 time
    Philadelphia 1 time
    Dallas 1 time
    Calgary 1 time
    Ottawa 1 time

    Toronto, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Florida, Columbus, St. Louis, Detroit, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose shut out


    The scary part is seeing a team like Minnesota come up so often :eek:

    12 teams never got a sniff, including two of the four clubs with 3 chances (NYR and CBJ).

    One interesting result was when one of the times Vancouver wound up with the top pick, the Habs picked second. This led me to ponder the following...

    If the Canucks get the top pick and the Habs place second, would it be plausible to see a swap of picks if the Canadiens deal Theodore to Vancouver? Not saying this would ever happen, but it does make a little bit of sense to me. The Canucks finally get their goalie and take the consolation prize of drafting local boy Gilbert Brule. The Habs get the coveted Crosby and then go on the UFA market for a goaltender (Fernandez, Thibault?, Joseph, Khabibulin).

    Hey, ya never know.
     
  11. NJDevils#4

    NJDevils#4 Since 2002, bishes

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    I followed suit...did it 40X

    This is the results

    1 Devils
    2 Blackhawks
    3 Bruins
    4 Devils
    5 Oilers
    6 Hurricanes
    7 Flames
    8 Canucks
    9 Lightning
    10 Penguins
    11 Avalanche
    12 Kings
    13 Rangers
    14 Blue Jackets
    15 Oilers
    16 Rangers
    17 Devils
    18 Oilers
    19 Panthers
    20 Hurricanes
    21 Red Wings
    22 Avalanche
    23 Panthers
    24 Sharks
    25 Hurricanes
    26 Islanders
    27 Flames
    28 Wild
    29 Canucks
    30 Kings
    31 Kings
    32 Panthers
    33 Senators
    34 Flyers
    35 Canucks
    36 Predators
    37 Sabres
    38 Coyotes
    39 Predators
    40 Blackhawks
     
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