Mock Draft Lottery

[bit82]

I did mock draft lottery based on tsn's article about how the draft lottery will be structured. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314
I did this 30 times to see how it turns out. Here are the results
OTT won 6 times (1 ball)
PIT won 4 times (3 balls)
NYI won 3 times (1 ball)
CHI won 2 times (2 balls)
MTL won 2 times (1 ball)
NYR won 2 times (3 balls)
MIN won 2 times (2 balls)
BUF won 2 times (3 balls)
ANA won 1 time (2 bals)
LA won 1 times (2 balls)
STL won 1 time (1 ball)
PHI won 1 time (1 ball)
CBJ won 1 time (3 balls)
TOR won 1 time (1 ball)
CAR won 1 time (2 balls)

teams with 3 balls won a combined 9 times. (this consisted of 4 teams)
teams with 2 balls won a combined 7 times. (this consisted of 10 teams)
teams with 1 ball won a combined 14 times. (this consisted of 16 teams)

according to this poll, the 4 teams that have 3 balls each will win 30% of the time.
according to this poll, the 10 teams that have 2 balls each will win 23.3% of the time.
according to this poll, the 16 teams that have 1 ball each will win 46.7% of the time.

This poll gave me the idea that the 4 teams that have 3 balls each have the best chance of winning (each of those teams with about a 7.5% chance of winning). Even though the 1 ball teams won the most, 16 teams won a combined 14 times. This gives each one of the 1 ball teams about a 2.9% chance of winning).

Click to read more...

 

[HABIMUS-MAXIMUS]

That's pretty encouraging for every team......pretty ironic that Ottawa won so many times....the odds don't favour one team as much as we thought

 

[Impossibles]

How did you simulate the random results?

 

[bit82]

How did you simulate the random results?

I wrote down every team on pieces of paper the same size and put the amount of balls which in this case was paper and picked them out a box after the box was shaken so that the same pieces of paper weren't all in the same areas. That's how i did it.

 

[al3x]

there are far more accurate lottery results on other threads

 

[dmcilvan]

There's a 25% chance that a team with three balls with win the lottery(12/48)
There's a 41.67% chance that a team with two balls with win the lottery(20/48)
There's a 33.33% chance that a team with one ball with win the lottery(16/48)

I don't really see how doing a bunch of trials works better for percentages than just some simple math, but it's still interesting that Ottawa won 6 times.

 

[Fozz]

This is all irrelevant since the draft order wont be determined by the average of a number of draws but by a single, final draw in which anything can happen. We all know the odds: a team with 3 balls has 3 chances out of 48; a team with 2 balls has a 2 in 48 chance and a team with 1 ball has a chance in 48. Those are the odds and they cannot change no matter how much you try.

 

[Potted Plant]

There's a 25% chance that a team with three balls with win the lottery(12/48)
There's a 41.67% chance that a team with two balls with win the lottery(20/48)
There's a 33.33% chance that a team with one ball with win the lottery(16/48)

I don't really see how doing a bunch of trials works better for percentages than just some simple math, but it's still interesting that Ottawa won 6 times.

But what is a 3-ball team's chances of getting in the top 7? The top 15? What are the chances that a particular 1-ball team gets a top 5 pick? What are the chances that a particular 3-ball team ends up with a pick after #25?

Basic arithmetic won't answer those questions. You can sit down with pen and paper and work it out, but that would take all day.

BTW, the answers to those questions are, in order:
40.3%
75.2%
10.9%
2.2%

 

[DINO22CICCARELLI]

on't you people understand THIS LOTTERY IS RIGGED for the rangers to win? What is it you do not understand? Largest market and needs a influx of talent. This is a no brainer since it is in their interest to place him there. Any questions?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

So I ran the lottery simulator 30 times to see how many teams would get shut out of the top pick. Here are the results, in terms of how many times a team landed the No. 1 pick:

Minnesota 5 times
Phoenix 2 times
Carolina 2 times
Pittsburgh 2 times
Vancouver 2 times
Anaheim 2 times
Atlanta 2 times
Nashville 2 times
Chicago 2 times
Washington 1 time
Buffalo 1 time
Edmonton 1 time
Montreal 1 time
Boston 1 time
Philadelphia 1 time
Dallas 1 time
Calgary 1 time
Ottawa 1 time

Toronto, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Florida, Columbus, St. Louis, Detroit, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose shut out


The scary part is seeing a team like Minnesota come up so often

12 teams never got a sniff, including two of the four clubs with 3 chances (NYR and CBJ).

One interesting result was when one of the times Vancouver wound up with the top pick, the Habs picked second. This led me to ponder the following...

If the Canucks get the top pick and the Habs place second, would it be plausible to see a swap of picks if the Canadiens deal Theodore to Vancouver? Not saying this would ever happen, but it does make a little bit of sense to me. The Canucks finally get their goalie and take the consolation prize of drafting local boy Gilbert Brule. The Habs get the coveted Crosby and then go on the UFA market for a goaltender (Fernandez, Thibault?, Joseph, Khabibulin).

Hey, ya never know.

 

[NJDevils#4]

I followed suit...did it 40X

This is the results

1 Devils
2 Blackhawks
3 Bruins
4 Devils
5 Oilers
6 Hurricanes
7 Flames
8 Canucks
9 Lightning
10 Penguins
11 Avalanche
12 Kings
13 Rangers
14 Blue Jackets
15 Oilers
16 Rangers
17 Devils
18 Oilers
19 Panthers
20 Hurricanes
21 Red Wings
22 Avalanche
23 Panthers
24 Sharks
25 Hurricanes
26 Islanders
27 Flames
28 Wild
29 Canucks
30 Kings
31 Kings
32 Panthers
33 Senators
34 Flyers
35 Canucks
36 Predators
37 Sabres
38 Coyotes
39 Predators
40 Blackhawks