MLD 2017 semifinal: Regina Capitals vs. Chicago Wolves
- Thread starter VanIslander
- Start date
tony d
Registered User
Best of luck to 70's in this series, looking forward to reading your thoughts and arguments and having a spirited and fair debate.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
I believe Mikko finally passed Saku last season with his Selke finalist nomination in his 9th year as NHL captain.n (But gawd how we loved Saku!)
tony d
Registered User
Unfortunately don't have much time to debate here due to work commitments but I do like the Lucic and Corson matchup here. Both guys are solid players and will be thorns in their opponents side. As to the Koivu debate, I think both guys are equal at this point. Saku is the more offensive of the 2 while Mikko is the more defensive of the 2. Still both are going to be valuable contributors for their teams.
Looking forward to seeing a rebuttal from 70's. Wish I had more time to break down the matchup but don't have the time right now.
Looking forward to seeing a rebuttal from 70's. Wish I had more time to break down the matchup but don't have the time right now.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
OK, so let's start with what kind of players we're dealing with (set expectations) and then look at who is most likely meet, exceed, or fail to meet those expectations in a playoff setting.
First lines:
VsX scores (7 year):
Cooper 80
Lacroix 76
Hedberg 63
Nilsson 59
Hartnell 58
Lambert 48
For every one of these players except the bottom two, these numbers include some conversion from other leagues. Lacroix, Hedberg and Nilsson had 14 of their combined 21 best seasons in the WHA. And Cooper had five of his best in the OHA - senior hockey.
I believe that Cooper is a player we have been seriously underrating, as he may be the most dominant scorer in OHA history, and he did it at a time that it was still quite meaningful. There are plenty of reference points to look at, based on how well he did and against whom, to call his 1920-1924 seasons extremely impressive:
1920:
Ernie Parkes 28
Harry Watson 21
Carson Cooper 20
Nels Stewart 20
1921:
George Hiller 17
Bill Carson 16
Carson Cooper 16
Billy Burch 14
Harry Watson 14
1922:
Billy Burch 23
Carson Cooper 23
Harry Watson 22
Bill Carson 18
1923:
John Brackenborough 28
Carson Cooper 27
Harry Watson 25
Dalton Meeking 19
Bill Carson 18
Hap Day 15
1924:
Carson Cooper 40
Frank Carson 29
Butch Kelterbourne 25
John Brackenborough 25
Hooley Smith 24
Hap Day 17
Yeah, there are a few no-names up there, but we're talking Hart winners, Olympians, HHOFers and don't forget Bill Carson, who stepped into the NHL and placed 8th and 10th in points. And scattered in there, just not in the top few names, are guys like Dunc Munro, Leo Reise Sr., Lionel Coancher, Babe Siebert, and Jimmy Herberts (who, like Bill Carson, placed top-10 in NHL scoring twice), We know there was some top-end competition here, and we've never given Cooper proper credit for these seasons. I did my best to do so in a way that was modest and didn't overvalue the OHA, and even still, he came out with arguably the best offensive resume in this draft. Even if one were to drastically scale back the OHA years, he still has two excellent (and three good) NHL years to fall back on. Either way, his resume dwarfs that of his counterpart, Hedberg. I mean that - even if you just consider his NHL years, his VsX score is still 55, and you have to completely ignore his OHA dominance to get there.
On the surface, Lacroix and Nilsson look equal as WHA players, but they're not. Lacroix's top-end dominance is a little better (1st, 1st, 2nd in scoring as opposed to 3rd, 3rd, 3rd) but beyond that, Lacroix was often much more of a one-man show, outscoring the 2nd place scorer on his team by margins of 18, 44, 40, 11, 22 and 38 points. Nilsson was 22, 9 and 7 points behind the leading scorer on his own team, before leading by 6 points in his last WHA season. If two players achieve the same results and one does it with a revolving cast of undrafted players and the other does it with Hedberg and Hull, it is pretty clear who the better talent is. And, their results were not the same, or really that close at all. Not to mention, Lacroix is actually an underrated defensive player and penalty killer - I know of no other skills Nilsson brought to the table.
Yvon Lambert was a role player in real life. To call Hartnell a role player would be understating his own offensive abilities, but no doubt he has all the skills required to play a role - size, physicality, defense, leadership, agitation. Lambert was just an average NHL player who was therefore a role player, and therein the difference lies - he and Hartnell possess many of the same attributes, to varying degrees, but the major difference is he lacks proven offensive ability and Hartnell doesn't, to the point where Hartnell can play on an MLD scoring line and not weaken its capacity to be effective, but Lambert cannot. Shayne Corson, who is on my 4th line, was a higher producer than Lambert.
Conclusion: Greater offensive potential at every position, and a better glue guy in Hartnell gives Regina the clear advantage.
2nd lines:
VsX scores (7 year):
Unger 73
Whitney 73
Pederson 68
Cain 65
Dineen 59
Foligno 54
At center, Unger holds a strong offensive edge on Pederson. Unger wasn't much defensively, and Pederson was a pretty strong penalty killer himself. Unger had an understated toughness to him, that allowed him to play a pretty aggressive game and avoid injury. These players are close, but as even strength players I take Unger.
At LW, Regina has the premier offensive LW in this draft, Ray Whitney. Cain is a good (but not great) deal behind Whitney as a scorer. Does either bring anything else to the table worth mentioning? I know Whitney does not. I am mostly certain Cain does not either.
At RW, Dineen and Foligno both are clearly playing the glue guy roles. Both are far less talented players than their linemates but are the worker bees who will throw their bodies around and help the scorers on their lines work safely. Dineen holds an offensive edge here, and if I remember these players correctly, a physical edge as well. Neither was much of a defensive presence. While Foligno is not the anchor that Lambert is to the 1st line, he falls short of Dineen's level of play.
Conclusion: Better offensive players at all positions, and a better glue guy - clear edge to Regina. Added bonus for the sweet chemistry of the rare playmaking winger and the rare goalscoring center. Consideration given to Pederson's defensive game (the best defensive player on either line) but it won't be enough - Regina's 2nd line will outscore Chicago's.
3rd lines:
Chamberlain and Lucic are both warrior types who will go to battle willingly. Lucic has a slightly better offensive record but he also played on the PP and with more talented players at ES every season - Chamberlain was always on a checking line (and I doubt ever on the PP) and scored pretty well despite that. I don't think he's any less talented and their physical games are a wash. The big difference here is Chamberlain's defensive game. It was very good (dare I say, elite?) and Lucic has no defensive game to speak of.
At center, it's Conroy vs. Holik. Holik's converted CSSR scores put him well above Conroy offensively, and Conroy's scores are only as good as they are mainly because of '02, '03 and '04 with Iginla. That said, I'm trying to stay away from raw numbers on the 3rd/4th liners because they can be too PP-influenced. Suffice it to say, Holik appears to be more talented. But on the other hand, Conroy has a few seasons with some excellent selke votes: 2nd, 3rd and 5th in voting. Holik was a very well-rounded player:
" a big brute of a center... famous for his emotional and agressive style in both ends of the ice... hardest-hitting ... played a hard, highly focused game of hockey. He had very high expectation of himself and of others [...] He had no tolerence for insincerity or hypocrisy.... mostly a defenceman, a tireless worker who inspired the other players because he never considered a match to be lost.... Disdaining the finesse style of most Czech hockey players, Holik was instead a banger and fighter.... For years he had engaged in bloody confrontations with Alexander Ragulin, a hulking Soviet defenseman who outweighed Holik by 40 pounds.... was the most visible person in the middle of this guerilla warfare. He blocked shots fearlessly, without regard for his well-being. He threw himself around the ice trying to show, as a people, how the Czechs would not be dominated... Big warrior, nothing is lost to him, could lift up others too. Man with immense will,... Aggressive player who is active all over the ice. Unafraid of physical encounters..."
Aside from Jiri Holik and Josef Golonka, I don't know of any other Czech forward from this era with this much good stuff said about his intangibles. Not only does this guy have an offensive game capable of a 2nd line role in this draft, but he's a beast. Personally, I wouldn't dream of taking a "meh" player like Conroy over him, but I will leave this one to individual viewers.
Stewart and Smyl are quite different players. Stewart was more of a quiet, up and down the wing, responsible kind of guy who killed penalties with the best of them. Smyl was a fiery, physical, heart and soul leader. Smyl is the more accomplished offensive player, by about 11% at even strength (based on ESVsX) but how much of that can be explained by Stewart being buried in the Leafs' deep late-O6 era lineup, and Smyl getting opportunities on a shallow Vancouver team he may not have received elsewhere? Anyway, most important thing is that Stewart adds defense to the line and Smyl adds physicality.
Conclusion: These lines are fairly equal in offense. Conroy the most established defensive presence, followed by Stewart and Chamberlain. Physicality is a wash. With the wings ill-equipped to play a defensive kind of game for Chicago, I like Regina's line there, but Chicago does have very good pieces there nonetheless.
4th lines:
Bonin being moved down from last year's role on a scoring line is a good thing - he's not that kind of player. He's compared to a guy who is also moving down from a scoring line role last year - a deeper draft will do that - the main difference is that Corson wasn't out of place on a scoring line last year. Well, 51-46 isn't exactly a huge difference in VsX scores, and besides, their ES scores of 56 are identical. So who's the better role player down here on the 4th line? I know Corson brings a good deal of defense, toughness, physicality and leadership (when he has his head on straight, that is). I know to some degree that Bonin has much of the same, plus prodigious physical strength. I wish he had a bio for me to refer to, but it doesn't look like he does. All told, I think these two guys occupied about the same relative spot in their era's pecking order.
Mikko is definitely better than Saku. It was really only longevity holding him back, and now that he's played 843 games, you can't use that against him anymore. As ES scorers in their primes, they were exactly identical (62 ESVsX) but what really sets them apart is Mikko's defense. Saku received 10 selke votes in his entire career. In each of the seasons when Mikko finished 3rd, 4th and 8th in Selke voting, he earned that many and more. In addition, Mikko is a superior penalty killer, who was used much more often, for much more successful penalty kills.
Mike Murphy is an ideal 4th liner - salt of the earth leadership kind of guy, with a solid physical game and very good defensively. Warwick is more of a pint-sized power forward who is slumming it on the 4th line. Warwick has a 23% advantage offensively, but he played so long ago that we can't isolate that out by situation. It's very likely he played on the PP, and entirely possible that if we could look only at ES, Murphy would be his equal, and Murphy has more in the way of intangibles. So they will likely achieve just as much, but in different ways.
Conclusion: washes on the wing means that Regina holds the edge thanks to the younger Koivu being the better of the two. This is by no means a huge edge.
First lines:
VsX scores (7 year):
Cooper 80
Lacroix 76
Hedberg 63
Nilsson 59
Hartnell 58
Lambert 48
For every one of these players except the bottom two, these numbers include some conversion from other leagues. Lacroix, Hedberg and Nilsson had 14 of their combined 21 best seasons in the WHA. And Cooper had five of his best in the OHA - senior hockey.
I believe that Cooper is a player we have been seriously underrating, as he may be the most dominant scorer in OHA history, and he did it at a time that it was still quite meaningful. There are plenty of reference points to look at, based on how well he did and against whom, to call his 1920-1924 seasons extremely impressive:
1920:
Ernie Parkes 28
Harry Watson 21
Carson Cooper 20
Nels Stewart 20
1921:
George Hiller 17
Bill Carson 16
Carson Cooper 16
Billy Burch 14
Harry Watson 14
1922:
Billy Burch 23
Carson Cooper 23
Harry Watson 22
Bill Carson 18
1923:
John Brackenborough 28
Carson Cooper 27
Harry Watson 25
Dalton Meeking 19
Bill Carson 18
Hap Day 15
1924:
Carson Cooper 40
Frank Carson 29
Butch Kelterbourne 25
John Brackenborough 25
Hooley Smith 24
Hap Day 17
Yeah, there are a few no-names up there, but we're talking Hart winners, Olympians, HHOFers and don't forget Bill Carson, who stepped into the NHL and placed 8th and 10th in points. And scattered in there, just not in the top few names, are guys like Dunc Munro, Leo Reise Sr., Lionel Coancher, Babe Siebert, and Jimmy Herberts (who, like Bill Carson, placed top-10 in NHL scoring twice), We know there was some top-end competition here, and we've never given Cooper proper credit for these seasons. I did my best to do so in a way that was modest and didn't overvalue the OHA, and even still, he came out with arguably the best offensive resume in this draft. Even if one were to drastically scale back the OHA years, he still has two excellent (and three good) NHL years to fall back on. Either way, his resume dwarfs that of his counterpart, Hedberg. I mean that - even if you just consider his NHL years, his VsX score is still 55, and you have to completely ignore his OHA dominance to get there.
On the surface, Lacroix and Nilsson look equal as WHA players, but they're not. Lacroix's top-end dominance is a little better (1st, 1st, 2nd in scoring as opposed to 3rd, 3rd, 3rd) but beyond that, Lacroix was often much more of a one-man show, outscoring the 2nd place scorer on his team by margins of 18, 44, 40, 11, 22 and 38 points. Nilsson was 22, 9 and 7 points behind the leading scorer on his own team, before leading by 6 points in his last WHA season. If two players achieve the same results and one does it with a revolving cast of undrafted players and the other does it with Hedberg and Hull, it is pretty clear who the better talent is. And, their results were not the same, or really that close at all. Not to mention, Lacroix is actually an underrated defensive player and penalty killer - I know of no other skills Nilsson brought to the table.
Yvon Lambert was a role player in real life. To call Hartnell a role player would be understating his own offensive abilities, but no doubt he has all the skills required to play a role - size, physicality, defense, leadership, agitation. Lambert was just an average NHL player who was therefore a role player, and therein the difference lies - he and Hartnell possess many of the same attributes, to varying degrees, but the major difference is he lacks proven offensive ability and Hartnell doesn't, to the point where Hartnell can play on an MLD scoring line and not weaken its capacity to be effective, but Lambert cannot. Shayne Corson, who is on my 4th line, was a higher producer than Lambert.
Conclusion: Greater offensive potential at every position, and a better glue guy in Hartnell gives Regina the clear advantage.
2nd lines:
VsX scores (7 year):
Unger 73
Whitney 73
Pederson 68
Cain 65
Dineen 59
Foligno 54
At center, Unger holds a strong offensive edge on Pederson. Unger wasn't much defensively, and Pederson was a pretty strong penalty killer himself. Unger had an understated toughness to him, that allowed him to play a pretty aggressive game and avoid injury. These players are close, but as even strength players I take Unger.
At LW, Regina has the premier offensive LW in this draft, Ray Whitney. Cain is a good (but not great) deal behind Whitney as a scorer. Does either bring anything else to the table worth mentioning? I know Whitney does not. I am mostly certain Cain does not either.
At RW, Dineen and Foligno both are clearly playing the glue guy roles. Both are far less talented players than their linemates but are the worker bees who will throw their bodies around and help the scorers on their lines work safely. Dineen holds an offensive edge here, and if I remember these players correctly, a physical edge as well. Neither was much of a defensive presence. While Foligno is not the anchor that Lambert is to the 1st line, he falls short of Dineen's level of play.
Conclusion: Better offensive players at all positions, and a better glue guy - clear edge to Regina. Added bonus for the sweet chemistry of the rare playmaking winger and the rare goalscoring center. Consideration given to Pederson's defensive game (the best defensive player on either line) but it won't be enough - Regina's 2nd line will outscore Chicago's.
3rd lines:
Chamberlain and Lucic are both warrior types who will go to battle willingly. Lucic has a slightly better offensive record but he also played on the PP and with more talented players at ES every season - Chamberlain was always on a checking line (and I doubt ever on the PP) and scored pretty well despite that. I don't think he's any less talented and their physical games are a wash. The big difference here is Chamberlain's defensive game. It was very good (dare I say, elite?) and Lucic has no defensive game to speak of.
At center, it's Conroy vs. Holik. Holik's converted CSSR scores put him well above Conroy offensively, and Conroy's scores are only as good as they are mainly because of '02, '03 and '04 with Iginla. That said, I'm trying to stay away from raw numbers on the 3rd/4th liners because they can be too PP-influenced. Suffice it to say, Holik appears to be more talented. But on the other hand, Conroy has a few seasons with some excellent selke votes: 2nd, 3rd and 5th in voting. Holik was a very well-rounded player:
" a big brute of a center... famous for his emotional and agressive style in both ends of the ice... hardest-hitting ... played a hard, highly focused game of hockey. He had very high expectation of himself and of others [...] He had no tolerence for insincerity or hypocrisy.... mostly a defenceman, a tireless worker who inspired the other players because he never considered a match to be lost.... Disdaining the finesse style of most Czech hockey players, Holik was instead a banger and fighter.... For years he had engaged in bloody confrontations with Alexander Ragulin, a hulking Soviet defenseman who outweighed Holik by 40 pounds.... was the most visible person in the middle of this guerilla warfare. He blocked shots fearlessly, without regard for his well-being. He threw himself around the ice trying to show, as a people, how the Czechs would not be dominated... Big warrior, nothing is lost to him, could lift up others too. Man with immense will,... Aggressive player who is active all over the ice. Unafraid of physical encounters..."
Aside from Jiri Holik and Josef Golonka, I don't know of any other Czech forward from this era with this much good stuff said about his intangibles. Not only does this guy have an offensive game capable of a 2nd line role in this draft, but he's a beast. Personally, I wouldn't dream of taking a "meh" player like Conroy over him, but I will leave this one to individual viewers.
Stewart and Smyl are quite different players. Stewart was more of a quiet, up and down the wing, responsible kind of guy who killed penalties with the best of them. Smyl was a fiery, physical, heart and soul leader. Smyl is the more accomplished offensive player, by about 11% at even strength (based on ESVsX) but how much of that can be explained by Stewart being buried in the Leafs' deep late-O6 era lineup, and Smyl getting opportunities on a shallow Vancouver team he may not have received elsewhere? Anyway, most important thing is that Stewart adds defense to the line and Smyl adds physicality.
Conclusion: These lines are fairly equal in offense. Conroy the most established defensive presence, followed by Stewart and Chamberlain. Physicality is a wash. With the wings ill-equipped to play a defensive kind of game for Chicago, I like Regina's line there, but Chicago does have very good pieces there nonetheless.
4th lines:
Bonin being moved down from last year's role on a scoring line is a good thing - he's not that kind of player. He's compared to a guy who is also moving down from a scoring line role last year - a deeper draft will do that - the main difference is that Corson wasn't out of place on a scoring line last year. Well, 51-46 isn't exactly a huge difference in VsX scores, and besides, their ES scores of 56 are identical. So who's the better role player down here on the 4th line? I know Corson brings a good deal of defense, toughness, physicality and leadership (when he has his head on straight, that is). I know to some degree that Bonin has much of the same, plus prodigious physical strength. I wish he had a bio for me to refer to, but it doesn't look like he does. All told, I think these two guys occupied about the same relative spot in their era's pecking order.
Mikko is definitely better than Saku. It was really only longevity holding him back, and now that he's played 843 games, you can't use that against him anymore. As ES scorers in their primes, they were exactly identical (62 ESVsX) but what really sets them apart is Mikko's defense. Saku received 10 selke votes in his entire career. In each of the seasons when Mikko finished 3rd, 4th and 8th in Selke voting, he earned that many and more. In addition, Mikko is a superior penalty killer, who was used much more often, for much more successful penalty kills.
Mike Murphy is an ideal 4th liner - salt of the earth leadership kind of guy, with a solid physical game and very good defensively. Warwick is more of a pint-sized power forward who is slumming it on the 4th line. Warwick has a 23% advantage offensively, but he played so long ago that we can't isolate that out by situation. It's very likely he played on the PP, and entirely possible that if we could look only at ES, Murphy would be his equal, and Murphy has more in the way of intangibles. So they will likely achieve just as much, but in different ways.
Conclusion: washes on the wing means that Regina holds the edge thanks to the younger Koivu being the better of the two. This is by no means a huge edge.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Defense:
Here are the 9 modern defensemen in this series who have TOI stats available:
Turnbull | 74-81 | 27.21 | 1.06 | 27.74
Awrey | 68-75 | 23.93 | 1.39 | 26.68
Smith| 88-95|24.90|1.14|26.01
Babych | 81-88 | 26.02 | 0.93 | 25.40
Engblom | 80-87 | 23.35 | 1.15 | 24.45
Aucoin | 99-07 | 24.77 | 0.93 | 24.18
Marois | 82-89 | 23.85 | 1.03 | 24.08
Hamhuis | 07-14 | 22.67 | 1.08 | 23.25
Iafrate|87-94|23.40|0.96|23.08
Visnovsky | 04-12 | 23.10 | 0.92 | 22.47
The top four defensemen on the list are Regina's. The bottom four are Chicago's. None of them have particularly bad stats for TOI (Visnovsky the exception) but they are dwarfed by the results Regina's defensemen posted. Across the board, these guys were more relied on by better teams.
Add in that regina has Tex Evans on the 2nd pairing (who made an O6 all-star game on merit and almost made the 2nd all-star team another season) and Clem Loughlin (a multiple PCHA all-star) and it's clear that the recognition Regina's defensemen received from their coaches, media and observers is overall much greater than that of Chicago.
Goaltending:
Mike Vernon is finally down in the MLD where he belongs. Roach is my 2nd favourite goalie in this MLD. It's clear who I prefer. However, I find the majority of the goalies in this year's MLD to be hard to definitively sort out, since they all played in different leagues, eras and situations. I don't mind calling goaltending a wash to avoid splitting hairs.
Coaching:
This is Jack Adams versus Alain Vigneault. Need I say more?
Leadership groups:
Regina has cup winning captain Clem Loughlin wearing the C, Kevin Dineen, who served as captain for three NHL franchises wearing an A, and a nine-season NHL captain Mikko Koivu, wearing the other A. Noted leaders Hartnell, Holik and Corson provide support.
Chicago has Aucoin wearing the C. Aucoin was a captain for 2 seasons in Chicago. Mike Murphy, a 6-season NHL captain, is a worthy assistant. Brian Engblom has no major leadership experience that I'm aware of. Other standouts include Foligno, Smyl and Saku.
You know, this team doesn't lack leadership, but two of its best leaders aren't wearing letters! Smyl goes without saying (8 seasons in Vancouver) but Foligno was also a 3-season captain in Buffalo and plays the right way. Koivu is a 9-season captain of the most illustrious franchise in history.
You should have Smyl wearing the C, and Murphy and Koivu with the As. It seems pretty obvious given their combined 23 seasons experience captaining NHL teams.
This won't win or lose anyone the series, but interesting nonetheless.
Powerplay:
The forward units are almost exactly the same as the top-2 lines, and it's established that there is a lot more firepower on Regina's top units. On defense, these are our VsXD scores:
Babych 79
Visnovsky 79
Turnbull 77
Loughlin 70
Iafrate 61
Aucoin 58
Marois 57
Smith 49
...now this is what MLD powerplays should look like. Lots of firepower here. Babych and Visnovsky are a wash, but Turnbull is much more proven than Iafrate. On the 2nd units, Loughlin was a better producer than Aucoin, but Marois is better than Smith to nearly the same degree.
Overall, thanks to the differences at forward, Regina stands to have a better PP. Turnbull is the piece on the backend that Chicago doesn't have an answer to; otherwise they are close.
Penalty kill:
PK 1: Marcel Bonin-Craig Conroy-Brian Engblom-Dan Hamhuis
PK 2: Yvon Lambert-Saku Koivu-Mario Marois-Adrian Aucoin
VS
PK1: Koivu - Stewart - Awrey - Evans
PK2: Chamberlain - Corson - Smith - Babych
Conroy and Koivu have almost identical PK successes in their careers. Slight edge to Conroy though. Bonin doesn't have a single SH point in his career. I wonder if he killed any penalties at all. The Canadiens had ES and PK specialists, and Bonin was likely the former. Guys like Bob Turner did all the penalty killing. I think he's a bad choice here, compared to Stewart, whose 36 career SHP nearly made him the all-time leader as of the time of his retirement. Like Kelly Miller, Stewart may not be an all-time great player overall, but he is an all-time great penalty killer. No contest here. On defense, we have three guys who were all very utilized and very successful post-expansion and then Jack Evans, for whom no PK stats exist. But he DID score 4 SHP that we know of, so he did play on the PK, and knowing how often defensemen scored SHP in the o6 era, I suspect it was more than his share. Overall, there's no major difference in our defensemen's abilities. It's the Stewart/Bonin gap that is huge and that's why the 1st unit is advantage Regina.
Corson and Koivu both enjoyed long careers as two-way forwards. Corson was used just a little more, and his teams were just a little more successful. No major advantage there, but the major advantage is in comparing Chamberlain, one of the best defensive forwards of his era, to Yvon Lambert, who only killed 8% of his team's penalties. This is another guy who shouldn't be on an MLD penalty kill. You have Murphy and Pederson, these guys should really be playing over Bonin and Lambert, and then we'd be even steven on the PK. Because the Marois/Aucoin tandem is actually a more proven PK duo than Babych/Smith. A couple smart changes would tip this one in Chicago's favour.
Conclusion:
Regina has more offensive firepower in the top 2 lines where it counts, defensemen who were much more useful and valuable to better teams, better coaching and a better PP. If Chicago doesn't make a couple of last minute changes, Regina also has a better penalty kill. For these reasons they should prevail in this series.
Here are the 9 modern defensemen in this series who have TOI stats available:
Awrey | 68-75 | 23.93 | 1.39 | 26.68
Smith| 88-95|24.90|1.14|26.01
Babych | 81-88 | 26.02 | 0.93 | 25.40
Engblom | 80-87 | 23.35 | 1.15 | 24.45
Aucoin | 99-07 | 24.77 | 0.93 | 24.18
Marois | 82-89 | 23.85 | 1.03 | 24.08
Hamhuis | 07-14 | 22.67 | 1.08 | 23.25
Iafrate|87-94|23.40|0.96|23.08
Visnovsky | 04-12 | 23.10 | 0.92 | 22.47
The top four defensemen on the list are Regina's. The bottom four are Chicago's. None of them have particularly bad stats for TOI (Visnovsky the exception) but they are dwarfed by the results Regina's defensemen posted. Across the board, these guys were more relied on by better teams.
Add in that regina has Tex Evans on the 2nd pairing (who made an O6 all-star game on merit and almost made the 2nd all-star team another season) and Clem Loughlin (a multiple PCHA all-star) and it's clear that the recognition Regina's defensemen received from their coaches, media and observers is overall much greater than that of Chicago.
Goaltending:
Mike Vernon is finally down in the MLD where he belongs. Roach is my 2nd favourite goalie in this MLD. It's clear who I prefer. However, I find the majority of the goalies in this year's MLD to be hard to definitively sort out, since they all played in different leagues, eras and situations. I don't mind calling goaltending a wash to avoid splitting hairs.
Coaching:
This is Jack Adams versus Alain Vigneault. Need I say more?
Leadership groups:
Regina has cup winning captain Clem Loughlin wearing the C, Kevin Dineen, who served as captain for three NHL franchises wearing an A, and a nine-season NHL captain Mikko Koivu, wearing the other A. Noted leaders Hartnell, Holik and Corson provide support.
Chicago has Aucoin wearing the C. Aucoin was a captain for 2 seasons in Chicago. Mike Murphy, a 6-season NHL captain, is a worthy assistant. Brian Engblom has no major leadership experience that I'm aware of. Other standouts include Foligno, Smyl and Saku.
You know, this team doesn't lack leadership, but two of its best leaders aren't wearing letters! Smyl goes without saying (8 seasons in Vancouver) but Foligno was also a 3-season captain in Buffalo and plays the right way. Koivu is a 9-season captain of the most illustrious franchise in history.
You should have Smyl wearing the C, and Murphy and Koivu with the As. It seems pretty obvious given their combined 23 seasons experience captaining NHL teams.
This won't win or lose anyone the series, but interesting nonetheless.
Powerplay:
The forward units are almost exactly the same as the top-2 lines, and it's established that there is a lot more firepower on Regina's top units. On defense, these are our VsXD scores:
Babych 79
Visnovsky 79
Turnbull 77
Loughlin 70
Iafrate 61
Aucoin 58
Marois 57
Smith 49
...now this is what MLD powerplays should look like. Lots of firepower here. Babych and Visnovsky are a wash, but Turnbull is much more proven than Iafrate. On the 2nd units, Loughlin was a better producer than Aucoin, but Marois is better than Smith to nearly the same degree.
Overall, thanks to the differences at forward, Regina stands to have a better PP. Turnbull is the piece on the backend that Chicago doesn't have an answer to; otherwise they are close.
Penalty kill:
PK 1: Marcel Bonin-Craig Conroy-Brian Engblom-Dan Hamhuis
PK 2: Yvon Lambert-Saku Koivu-Mario Marois-Adrian Aucoin
VS
PK1: Koivu - Stewart - Awrey - Evans
PK2: Chamberlain - Corson - Smith - Babych
Conroy and Koivu have almost identical PK successes in their careers. Slight edge to Conroy though. Bonin doesn't have a single SH point in his career. I wonder if he killed any penalties at all. The Canadiens had ES and PK specialists, and Bonin was likely the former. Guys like Bob Turner did all the penalty killing. I think he's a bad choice here, compared to Stewart, whose 36 career SHP nearly made him the all-time leader as of the time of his retirement. Like Kelly Miller, Stewart may not be an all-time great player overall, but he is an all-time great penalty killer. No contest here. On defense, we have three guys who were all very utilized and very successful post-expansion and then Jack Evans, for whom no PK stats exist. But he DID score 4 SHP that we know of, so he did play on the PK, and knowing how often defensemen scored SHP in the o6 era, I suspect it was more than his share. Overall, there's no major difference in our defensemen's abilities. It's the Stewart/Bonin gap that is huge and that's why the 1st unit is advantage Regina.
Corson and Koivu both enjoyed long careers as two-way forwards. Corson was used just a little more, and his teams were just a little more successful. No major advantage there, but the major advantage is in comparing Chamberlain, one of the best defensive forwards of his era, to Yvon Lambert, who only killed 8% of his team's penalties. This is another guy who shouldn't be on an MLD penalty kill. You have Murphy and Pederson, these guys should really be playing over Bonin and Lambert, and then we'd be even steven on the PK. Because the Marois/Aucoin tandem is actually a more proven PK duo than Babych/Smith. A couple smart changes would tip this one in Chicago's favour.
Conclusion:
Regina has more offensive firepower in the top 2 lines where it counts, defensemen who were much more useful and valuable to better teams, better coaching and a better PP. If Chicago doesn't make a couple of last minute changes, Regina also has a better penalty kill. For these reasons they should prevail in this series.
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seventieslord
Student Of The Game
As far as playoff performances go, i think Regina has Whitney and Lacroix who are likely to fall short of expectations, while guys like Holik and Smith have the playoff and big game pedigrees to exceed them. On Chicago, no one stands out to me as a particularly strong our week playoff performer. I know Vernon has a Smythe, but he had some god-awful performances as well, to the point that it probably evens out. I guess if I carryout Smith for his contributions to a dynasty, i should do the same for Lambert. Visnovsky, in the other hand, has an abnormally weak record.
I don't know, does anyone see anyone else whose performances or results have been far outside of the norm or outside of expectations? I think playoff records don't really help or hurt either team overall.
I don't know, does anyone see anyone else whose performances or results have been far outside of the norm or outside of expectations? I think playoff records don't really help or hurt either team overall.
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Johnny Engine
Moderator
- Jul 29, 2009
- 4,979
- 2,360
By the narrowest of margins, Gary Unger puts this series to bed with a double overtime goal in game 7 for Regina.
Andre Lacroix is the standout skater, and Mike Vernon is a close second . Hedberg, Roach, and overtime hero Unger all have a great series.
Andre Lacroix is the standout skater, and Mike Vernon is a close second . Hedberg, Roach, and overtime hero Unger all have a great series.
tony d
Registered User
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