Blue Jays Discussion: Midway point in the season and things don't look.. Ugh.. Good

[BertCorbeau]

Continue

Click to read more...

 

[ShaneFalco]

They'd have to go on quite a tear to make things interesting

But some tough decisions ahead nonetheless

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Reading the closed thread was fun. You think when you split with the best team in AL, people would be less.....well, Blue Jay fanny.

Also, to address Metafour's comment from several pages back: Steamer and Zips, and ultimately fangraphs' projections, had them at 87 wins, and the first wild card team.

https://web.archive.org/web/2017040...raphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Hearing the mainstream media talk about Vlad Jr. and Bo for the last two weeks is also fun. (late as ****, but welcome to the party).

Reminds me slightly of the Lansing Three.

 

[Discoverer]

Hearing the mainstream media talk about Vlad Jr. and Bo for the last two weeks is also fun. (late as ****, but welcome to the party).

Reminds me slightly of the Lansing Three.

I guess that would make Edward Olivares their Nicolino.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I guess that would make Edward Olivares their Nicolino.

Lol I meant moreso in the sense that someone who doesn't actually follow prospects suddenly knows a couple names, and is "woke" (or at least BSing like they're woke). I'm confident the fan 590 'starting lineup' has no idea who Edward Olivares is.

 

[zeke]

even more exciting is that they're younger and more dominating than the lansing 3....not to mention they're already done with lansing.

 

[Bluelines]

2017 futures game superlatives

Good read on Vlad Jr:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/futures-game-superlatives-2/#iFBXWRUu42Cmc7WT.97

But accounting for all the factors involved—pure hitting ability, age and level—no hitter was more impressive than Vladdy Jr. Guerrero is 18, which means he’s the same age as the high school picks from the 2017 draft. Even some of the players who will get drafted in 2018 were only born a few months apart from Guerrero.


Another good read on the Futures game:

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/7/10/15946500/blue-jays-futures-game-recap

 

[Discoverer]

Lol I meant moreso in the sense that someone who doesn't actually follow prospects suddenly knows a couple names, and is "woke" (or at least BSing like they're woke). I'm confident the fan 590 'starting lineup' has no idea who Edward Olivares is.

Haha I knew what you meant. For whatever reason, it is a lot of fun to have national attention on these guys.

It's pretty amazing that Guerrero was the only '99-born player in the Futures Game, and it's even more amazing that the only '98-born player was Bichette.

Guerrero may not have hit the #1 spot in rankings yet, but there isn't a prospect in baseball I would trade him for.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Haha I knew what you meant. For whatever reason, it is a lot of fun to have national attention on these guys.

It's pretty amazing that Guerrero was the only '99-born player in the Futures Game, and it's even more amazing that the only '98-born player was Bichette.

Guerrero may not have hit the #1 spot in rankings yet, but there isn't a prospect in baseball I would trade him for.

Absolutely fun. Though the conversation has shifted to how far they are, and the fact that there's no real bridge to them (which I believe is false of course).

As for Vlad, I think he's #1 at seasons end simply because Moncada will graduate. I really want Bo and Alford to finish strong to get the three in the top 25. Both should be there currently, IMO. Alford has been penalized because of the injury, which is nonsense. If his Double-A numbers held through June (had he not been injured), that's an easy call IMO.

 

[Discoverer]

Absolutely fun. Though the conversation has shifted to how far they are, and the fact that there's no real bridge to them (which I believe is false of course).

As for Vlad, I think he's #1 at seasons end simply because Moncada will graduate. I really want Bo and Alford to finish strong to get the three in the top 25. Both should be there currently, IMO. Alford has been penalized because of the injury, which is nonsense. If his Double-A numbers held through June (had he not been injured), that's an easy call IMO.

Alford definitely deserves it.

Call me crazy, but I think Jansen deserves consideration for the Top 100. There are very few catching prospects having as impressive a season as he is.

 

[zeke]

Danny's the real deal imo.

Alford's numbers are good but no slam dunk tho.

 

[Discoverer]

Danny's the real deal imo.

Alford's numbers are good but no slam dunk tho.

I think a lot of Alford's success will depend on maintaining his improved K-rate. I've been really, really high on him since he committed to ball and showed an advanced approach right away, but if his newfound contact abilities are sustainable, then I think he goes from a "really good" prospect to "elite".

 

[King Mapes]

Biagini was excellent out of the rotation for a while, then had a few bad starts.

I'll disagree. He didn't have many brutal games I guess but almost every game he gave up at least 3 runs, aside from the first couple starts. 3 starts were brutal. He just seemed much better out of the Pen and instead we kept tossing Grilli out there instead.

 

[zeke]

Inherited controllable players fwar (fwar/ra9war avg for pitchers):

Stroman 2.6, Smoak 2.2, Osuna 1.6, Martin 1.6, Donaldson 1.5, Pillar 1.0, Barnes 1.0, Travis 0.6, Carrera 0.6, Tepera 0.5, Tulowitzki 0.4, Loup 0.0, Sanchez -0.2, Goins -0.6 = Total 12.3fwar, $67m

Added Players:

Estrada 1.2, Happ 1.0, Smith 0.8, Leone 0.6, Biagini 0.5, Liriano 0.4, Bautista 0.3, Beliveau 0.2, Howell -0.2, Latos -0.2, Pearce -0.4, Barney -0.4, Morales -0.5, Coghlan -0.6, Salty -0.6, Grilli -0.7, Maile -0.8 = Total 0.6fwar, $82m

 

[zeke]

I think a lot of Alford's success will depend on maintaining his improved K-rate. I've been really, really high on him since he committed to ball and showed an advanced approach right away, but if his newfound contact abilities are sustainable, then I think he goes from a "really good" prospect to "elite".

yeah for sure that K rate has to be a legit improvement (and i think it is).

i still worry that he needs such a high babip to put up a good but not great overall line....and that's mostly because his power has yet to show up and i'm a bit worried it never will.

 

[Discoverer]

I'll disagree. He didn't have many brutal games I guess but almost every game he gave up at least 3 runs, aside from the first couple starts. 3 starts were brutal. He just seemed much better out of the Pen and instead we kept tossing Grilli out there instead.

In Biagini's first seven starts, he had a 3.38 ERA and 2.91 FIP. He was outstanding.

Then the wheels fell off. But the alternative was to put Biagini back in the pen and let Bolsinger start.

Even when you include his more recent bad starts, Biagini has a 3.82 FIP as a starter.

 

[Discoverer]

Inherited controllable players fwar (fwar/ra9war avg for pitchers):

Stroman 2.6, Smoak 2.2, Osuna 1.6, Martin 1.6, Donaldson 1.5, Pillar 1.0, Barnes 1.0, Travis 0.6, Carrera 0.6, Tepera 0.5, Tulowitzki 0.4, Loup 0.0, Sanchez -0.2, Goins -0.6 = Total 12.3fwar, $67m

Added Players:

Estrada 1.2, Happ 1.0, Smith 0.8, Leone 0.6, Biagini 0.5, Liriano 0.4, Bautista 0.3, Beliveau 0.2, Howell -0.2, Latos -0.2, Pearce -0.4, Barney -0.4, Morales -0.5, Coghlan -0.6, Salty -0.6, Grilli -0.7, Maile -0.8 = Total 0.6fwar, $82m

Justin Smoak was not an inherited, controllable player for the 2017 season.

 

[zeke]

thought he was under control for 2017?

if not:

inherited: 10.1war, $63m
added: 2.8war, $86m

 

[Discoverer]

yeah for sure that K rate has to be a legit improvement (and i think it is).

i still worry that he needs such a high babip to put up a good but not great overall line....and that's mostly because his power has yet to show up and i'm a bit worried it never will.

It has already at least started to show up. Since coming back from his last injury in 2016, he's hit 11 HR in 405 PA with a .168 ISO. That's a significant power increase, and it works for a guy who profiles as more of a speedy linedrive hitter anyway.

 

[Discoverer]

thought he was under control for 2017?

if not:

inherited: 10.1war, $63m
added: 2.8war, $86m

Yep. That speaks to the dangers of having to fill significant holes through free agency.

 

[Stats01]

Haha I knew what you meant. For whatever reason, it is a lot of fun to have national attention on these guys.

It's pretty amazing that Guerrero was the only '99-born player in the Futures Game, and it's even more amazing that the only '98-born player was Bichette.

Guerrero may not have hit the #1 spot in rankings yet, but there isn't a prospect in baseball I would trade him for.

Guerrero will be #1 eventually when Moncada gets promoted to the White Sox which he might later this season. The Jays have never had a prospect like Guerrero before, people can argue with me and debate about guys like Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, Delgado, olerud etc. .but I still think what Guerrero is doing at his age and how fast he's progressing he's probably the best prospect this franchise has ever had. He's going to be a special special piece to our core in a few years. Kid was born to hit.

I agree with you there isn't a prospect in baseball right now I'd trade him for. He was really impressive in the Futures game, 18 years old and he's blasting 100 mph fast balls for base hits. His bat speed is rediculous

 

[hockeywiz542]

he was loved when he left following the 2015 season, but nobody seemed to remember the hand-wringing wrought by alex anthopoulos at the 2011 winter meetings when he publicly established a link between attendance at rogers centre and “payroll parameters.â€

whether in a positive or negative light, nobody’s felt comfortable enough to again make that link as blatant until mark shapiro did so with his recent comments about the power of this marketplace and the need to keep open the toronto blue jays‘ window of competitiveness.

None of us should have been as surprised as we seemed to be.

overlooked in the fantasy chatter about buying or selling – chatter that will no doubt grow to a crescendo now that sunday’s 19-1 humiliation by the houston astros has five days to marinate – is the fact that shapiro, president and chief executive officer of the blue jays and (and this is important) rogers centre, is in the middle of planning for a major refurbishment of the facility that includes nuts and bolts stuff that is wearing out as well as amenities.

Although no one has said anything formal, the guess here is shapiro will attempt to get an all-star game for the city (which hasn’t hosted one since 1991) as a carrot to ameliorate some of the impact on ownership but make no mistake: This project will cost a couple hundred million dollars, and it’s a lot easier to convince ownership to sink that amount into a stadium when the place is almost full each night and television ratings and merchandise sales are robust. And that doesn’t even touch on the inevitable discussion that must be had with ownership when the day comes to buy out a chunk of troy tulowitzki’s contract and expedite a move. That’s coming; you and i both know it.

I reported two weeks ago shapiro saying that intellectually there are similarities between this team and the cleveland indians team he tore down in 2002, but that he “doesn’t operate in an intellectual vacuum,†referring to the team’s attendance and television ratings. He might also have been saying that as president and ceo of rogers centre, he cannot achieve his biggest tasks without fans in the stands. Nobody would make their job made more difficult by blowing this thing up; nobody has as much to lose for management to do anything other than make baseball trades for baseball reasons and keep the customers happy.

 

[zeke]

of course i still don't see how moncada can be the #1 prospect in baseball with his K issues.

 

[hockeywiz542]