Michael Dal Colle (C/LW)

[mm11]

I hate to beat a dead horse but this kid is on the path to bust level. Looking back at the 2014 draft we had a few chances to select top line forwards and swung and missed again. Dal Colle is just not doing in the AHL. Dissapointing to say the least. Just another of our top Five misses.

my question is: What were the scouts looking at? I heard his attitude was great with an NHL shot. You would think the eye test would prevail no? I remember Ehlers looking like a fast young big point producer in the QMJHL. (his 1st year I believe as well) Heck Pasatrnak was taken at 25, Ho Sang at 28 and not to mention Nylander, Ritchie and a few more that just leap over Dal Colle in development.

Is it our scouts or player development? Strome, Reinhart, and Dal Colle are big misses for this franchise.

Click to read more...

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

Hindsight is 20/20. If you remember correctly, Dal Colle was the consensus 5th overall pick in nearly every mock draft and scouting report you could imagine. Plus, with our need for LW prospects, his game seemingly being a good fit for Tavares, and the most likely coincidental fact he was an Oshawa General, there was no way we didn't take Dal Colle.

I still think he can be an NHL player. Ho-Sang didn't put up ridiculous numbers in the AHL either, but that doesn't deter us from thinking he can be a star. In fact, Dal Colle put up more points than Ho-Sang last season. I think MDC is a complementary player, which means he needs skilled players on his line, more a center than another skilled winger like JHS.

Regarding other players in that draft, you have to remember where players were ranked at the time. The only players that would have made sense to take at the 5th spot other than MDC would have been Virtanen, Nylander, and Ehlers. I think if Draisaitl fell to the 5th spot, we would have taken him. I went to a Q&A with Garth and one of the scouts mentioned him, MDC, and Ehlers as guys they were looking at. But you're right, maybe Ehlers and Nylander would have been better picks. Obviously, we should be happy we didn't take Virtanen. But you can't mention Pastrnak, he wouldn't have made sense at the time. Now, of course, he would have been a stellar pick, but it doesn't work like that. My Dad, who is a Michigan fan, always says we should have taken Larkin at that spot. He's wrong to say that.

Strome was ruined by bad coaching. Reinhart was well liked because he was big. Niederreiter was a baby. I'd say that is one of Snow's biggest problems, he keeps missing on top-5 picks.

 

[seabass45]

I think this is one you can say was a big miss all around. There was a huge consensus around him being our guy so it's not like you can call it a reach. 3 out of 4 guys here had him at #5. http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings/

But yeah it was wrong. He has an elite shot but seems boring otherwise, and maybe that's the problem. Reinhart was another pick that just screamed "steady". Garth doesn't really go with boom or bust picks with these early first rounders, and 2014 would have been a good year to do that. Need more Ho-Sang FU picks.

 

[doublechili]

Sorry, but I don't give Snow a pass on MDC because he was the consensus pick on draft websites (assuming that's even true). Nylander and Ehlers are way ahead of MDC at this point. And you didn't have to dig too deep to see that MDC's 5 on 5 production in juniors wasn't top 5 pick level. Not to mention legit concerns about his skating.

I'm not giving up on him and am hoping he's one of those late-blooming big wingers....

 

[mm11]

Sorry, but I don't give Snow a pass on MDC because he was the consensus pick on draft websites (assuming that's even true). Nylander and Ehlers are way ahead of MDC at this point. And you didn't have to dig too deep to see that MDC's 5 on 5 production in juniors wasn't top 5 pick level. Not to mention legit concerns about his skating.

I'm not giving up on him and am hoping he's one of those late-blooming big wingers....

I have to agree here. Even my dime store Hockey scouting eyes would of noticed MDC's skating was way worse than Ehlers or Nylander. Great point about 5 on 5 as well. Geez, isn't that in the "how to be a scout manual?" Did the Isles scouts just read the Hockey News and say "yep, that's our guy!" Seriously, in this day and age there is so much data to form your opinion so misses like this should be few and and far between. (especially top 5 no?) Unlike 30-40 years ago watching grainy video in a smoke filled basement out in Canada or something......anyway, sorry for the rant, the game now is speed, speed, speed and the Isles made a safe bet into a calamity of a pick unfortunately . Not sure who was the head scout that made this decision but man alive how can you miss so bad? Like I said Ehlers flat out came in the QMJHL and dominated with speed and skill in his 1st year.

 

[redbull]

Dylan Strome also doesn't skate that well, nor does Pulock or Michael Dal Colle. He was the consensus top 5 for his smarts, shot, hockey sense and size. He was a skinny kid and if he improved his skating, he could have been a solid NHL player. I doubt anyone can tell the difference between Johnny Gaudreau or Nik Ehlers or Nail Yakupov on draft day.

The pattern for the Isles (outside of 2009) is first round disappointment - be it at the draft table or on-going development. In some cases, a trade is made before it's too late (Griffin Reinhart) or just a bad one (Nino Niederreiter) or a desperate one (Ryan Strome) - but what we've NEVER seen is Mitch Marner and William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.

From the later rounds, hardly ANYTHING since 2009.

The owners have to know this. They have to see this and have to act.

 

[seafoam]

NYI under Garth Snow historically been scared to venture out of North America for talent.

In addition, their inability to foresee that the game was moving towards being a skater's league has also hindered their ability to draft talent.

In conclusion, Garth Snow has done things the way he's wanted for his entire tenure without having ANYONE put in place to question his train of thought.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sorry, but I don't give Snow a pass on MDC because he was the consensus pick on draft websites (assuming that's even true). Nylander and Ehlers are way ahead of MDC at this point. And you didn't have to dig too deep to see that MDC's 5 on 5 production in juniors wasn't top 5 pick level. Not to mention legit concerns about his skating.

Agreed. I think an issue with using "he was the consensus pick" argument is it fails to address the fact that NHL teams have their own scouting departments to analyze these prospects for themselves, and should be able to pick up on certain character traits or skillsets that will or won't translate to the pros. If drafting came down to essentially picking whoever CSS or Red Line or TSN says you should pick at the spot you're picking, then why even send scouts to games?

One common theme sticks out immediately about Snow's collection of Top-5 picks: lack of foot speed. Reinhart, Dal Colle, Strome, and even Niederreiter to an extent (I'd consider him a decent, but not great, skater) all had question marks about their skating. In a league where speed and skill are the new fad, picking a bunch of guys who are slow skaters already puts the picks into question.

Then there's the idea that Snow and Co. insist they place a high emphasis on character when drafting. But are they evaluating the right thing? Those same Top-5 picks all seem to be lacking a bit in character or heart. So what "character" are they drafting, when none of the guys they took seem to be the heart and soul type?

With Dal Colle specifically, I wonder if he's a case of a player who simply plateaued at an early age. Similar to how some boys grow tall at an early age, but then stop growing by 14. Sometimes hockey players look great at 17/18, but then that's the best they ever become. Could that be the case with Dal Colle? Ahead of the curve at 16-18, but then he essentially reached his peak at 18? Because usually you see a marked improvement post-draft year. Dal Colle, even at his best in Kingston, looked the same player he was at 17 in Oshawa.

 

[doublechili]

I have to agree here. Even my dime store Hockey scouting eyes would of noticed MDC's skating was way worse than Ehlers or Nylander. Great point about 5 on 5 as well. Geez, isn't that in the "how to be a scout manual?" Did the Isles scouts just read the Hockey News and say "yep, that's our guy!" Seriously, in this day and age there is so much data to form your opinion so misses like this should be few and and far between. (especially top 5 no?) Unlike 30-40 years ago watching grainy video in a smoke filled basement out in Canada or something......anyway, sorry for the rant, the game now is speed, speed, speed and the Isles made a safe bet into a calamity of a pick unfortunately . Not sure who was the head scout that made this decision but man alive how can you miss so bad? Like I said Ehlers flat out came in the QMJHL and dominated with speed and skill in his 1st year.

I'm not sure but I think the head scout was Klatt. And I don't think his record was stellar on top picks during his tenure. I recall posting about that once but don't feel like going through the exercise again.

And I agree about speed. Jankowski seemed to value hockey sense. Klatt maybe liked size? It's kind of early to judge Jorma Kaukonen but hopefully he places more value on speed.

 

[doublechili]

Then there's the idea that Snow and Co. insist they place a high emphasis on character when drafting. But are they evaluating the right thing? Those same Top-5 picks all seem to be lacking a bit in character or heart. So what "character" are they drafting, when none of the guys they took seem to be the heart and soul type?

Good distinction. The kind of character that should matter is heart, will to win, and especially will to succeed. A kid drafted at 17 or 18 still has to put in a tremendous amount of work and be totally committed to making it in the NHL. I assume that is the kind of "character" they've been focusing on, but recent results make you wonder.

 

[Seph]

I'm not sure but I think the head scout was Klatt. And I don't think his record was stellar on top picks during his tenure. I recall posting about that once but don't feel like going through the exercise again.

And I agree about speed. Jankowski seemed to value hockey sense. Klatt maybe liked size? It's kind of early to judge Jorma Kaukonen but hopefully he places more value on speed.

I agree with your assessments of Janks and Klatt. Klatt seemed to utterly disregard foot speed as a problem when it came to making picks. Here's every skater we drafted in the top 3 rounds with Klatt as head scout:
2011: Strome, Mayfield, Sundstrom
2012: Reinhardt, Pokka, Pelech
2013: Pulock, Cammarata
2014: MDC, JHS

Other than JHS, foot speed is a concern for every single one of those guys. Possessing size does seem to be a common theme, with half of them having above average size and only Cammarata and Ho-Sang being below average there.

So far under Kautonen, the top 3 rounds have looked like this:
2015: Barzal, Beauvillier, Mitchell Vande Sompel
2016: Bellows
2017: Salo, Ben Mirageas

We still have Bellows and Salo as players drafted in spite of foot speed issues, but the rest are considered at least plus skaters, with Beau and MVS being excellent skaters and Barzal arguably being in the elite territory. So, overall it seems like there has already been much more importance placed on skating/footspeed.

Granted, this doesn't give Snow a pass, since he hired Janks and Klatt and the final decision on a pick is his. But hopefully it'll be better under Kautonen.

Agreed. I think an issue with using "he was the consensus pick" argument is it fails to address the fact that NHL teams have their own scouting departments to analyze these prospects for themselves, and should be able to pick up on certain character traits or skillsets that will or won't translate to the pros. If drafting came down to essentially picking whoever CSS or Red Line or TSN says you should pick at the spot you're picking, then why even send scouts to games?

While I agree with you, since many of the same people who complain about Snow drafting MDC are the same people who lambaste Snow for thinking his scouting team knows more than the consensus or the commonly accepted knowledge, it's still worth pointing out that in this case, MDC was the consensus pick.

Then there's the idea that Snow and Co. insist they place a high emphasis on character when drafting. But are they evaluating the right thing? Those same Top-5 picks all seem to be lacking a bit in character or heart. So what "character" are they drafting, when none of the guys they took seem to be the heart and soul type?

With Dal Colle specifically, I wonder if he's a case of a player who simply plateaued at an early age. Similar to how some boys grow tall at an early age, but then stop growing by 14. Sometimes hockey players look great at 17/18, but then that's the best they ever become. Could that be the case with Dal Colle? Ahead of the curve at 16-18, but then he essentially reached his peak at 18? Because usually you see a marked improvement post-draft year. Dal Colle, even at his best in Kingston, looked the same player he was at 17 in Oshawa.

The character focus I believe was more when Jankowski was the head scout. My understanding (and I could be wrong, this sort of thing is not widely reported on) was that the lengthy personality tests started under Jankowski's time as head scout and ended when Klatt took over.

Your assessment of MDC could very well be correct, as he certainly seems to have plateaued. He could still hit the next tier though, as progression often times is not linear. But I do think something needs to happen to spark that, and I have no idea what it may be.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

While I agree with you, since many of the same people who complain about Snow drafting MDC are the same people who lambaste Snow for thinking his scouting team knows more than the consensus or the commonly accepted knowledge, it's still worth pointing out that in this case, MDC was the consensus pick.

I'd just like to make a quick clarification with regards to my view of the distinctions between criticisms over taking the "consensus" versus criticisms over taking a "reach because a scouting staff knows more than most". With consensus, I think criticism is valid if there are players rated just as highly, but were passed on for a specific player.

It's, IMO, why there's a difference between criticizing Dal Colle over Nylander or Reinhart over Trouba, and between criticizing Dal Colle over Pastrnak or Reinhart over Parayko. In the former cases, both those players were rated around that spot the Isles were drafting. In the latter cases, it's more hindsight because no one expected those guys to go 4th or 5th overall.

 

[Lame Lambert]

A good shot for a forward is useless if you can't get open to shoot it. Defensemen are a little different in that they're usually joining the rush last anyway.

 

[doublechili]

...with Klatt as head scout:
2011: Strome
2012: Reinhardt
2013: Pulock
2014: MDC

Thanks for doing that Seph. Looking at only the top picks under Klatt - Yikes. If in each of those drafts they had instead only taken the next Euro player drafted I have a feeling we would have done much better.

 

[Nassau Revisited]

Snow has failed for a decade drafting. Not much to see here

 

[Beautvillier]

Snow has failed for a decade drafting. Not much to see here

he's been bad at it in the early first round but most of his later picks have been good.

 

[doublechili]

Thanks for doing that Seph. Looking at only the top picks under Klatt - Yikes. If in each of those drafts they had instead only taken the next Euro player drafted I have a feeling we would have done much better.

Just to follow up on my own post, here is who we would have drafted if we had taken the next Euro player drafted in those 4 years:

2011: Strome -> Zibanejad
2012: Reinhardt -> Lindholm
2013: Pulock -> Zadorov
2014: MDC -> Nylander

 

[xIsle]

I thought the 2015 draft was Klatt's last draft with us.

 

[doublechili]

I thought the 2015 draft was Klatt's last draft with us.

I checked and you are correct. He left in July, but it was announced that he was leaving in before the draft. So he was the head scout still at the 2015 draft. I know Beauvillier was a Saraceno pick so he probably gets credit for that, but Barzal was taken under Klatt.

 

[Seph]

I'd just like to make a quick clarification with regards to my view of the distinctions between criticisms over taking the "consensus" versus criticisms over taking a "reach because a scouting staff knows more than most". With consensus, I think criticism is valid if there are players rated just as highly, but were passed on for a specific player.

It's, IMO, why there's a difference between criticizing Dal Colle over Nylander or Reinhart over Trouba, and between criticizing Dal Colle over Pastrnak or Reinhart over Parayko. In the former cases, both those players were rated around that spot the Isles were drafting. In the latter cases, it's more hindsight because no one expected those guys to go 4th or 5th overall.

To be fair, I don't recall seeing many lists with Nylander in the top 5 either. Reinhart I'll ignore since he wasn't really a consensus (that draft had no real consensus after the top 2, arguably 3 spots), but in MDC's case, pretty much everyone had him a notch above Nylander. Bob McKenzie's poll of NHL scouts had MDC at 5 and Nylander at 9. In fact, if you look at that link, you can see that each of Button, THN, ISS, hockeyprospect.com and McKeen's had MDC higher than Nylander. Also, only one of those rankings had MDC outside of the top 5, whereas only one had Nylander in the top 5. Granted, it's a small notch above Nylander, but still a notch.

Overall I do agree with your point, but I also think that if you don't want your GM thinking his scouts know more than the consensus, then you should be glad Snow took MDC. That said, I do believe a GM should think his scouts know more than the consensus -- that's the whole reason he hired them.

I checked and you are correct. He left in July, but it was announced that he was leaving in before the draft. So he was the head scout still at the 2015 draft. I know Beauvillier was a Saraceno pick so he probably gets credit for that, but Barzal was taken under Klatt.

Just to follow up on my own post, here is who we would have drafted if we had taken the next Euro player drafted in those 4 years:

2011: Strome -> Zibanejad
2012: Reinhardt -> Lindholm
2013: Pulock -> Zadorov
2014: MDC -> Nylander

I was under the impression Kautonen ran the 2015 draft, since Klatt had announced he was leaving in April, and I wasn't sure when the handoff actually occurred. You may well be right that Klatt handled the 2015 draft though. But I do wonder if the Euros were who Kautonen was campaigning for as our head European scout and got overruled by Klatt, but their superior results made Kautonen look better in hindsight. Would explain how he go the job. But who knows on that.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

To be fair, I don't recall seeing many lists with Nylander in the top 5 either. Reinhart I'll ignore since he wasn't really a consensus (that draft had no real consensus after the top 2, arguably 3 spots), but in MDC's case, pretty much everyone had him a notch above Nylander. Bob McKenzie's poll of NHL scouts had MDC at 5 and Nylander at 9. In fact, if you look at that link, you can see that each of Button, THN, ISS, hockeyprospect.com and McKeen's had MDC higher than Nylander. Also, only one of those rankings had MDC outside of the top 5, whereas only one had Nylander in the top 5. Granted, it's a small notch above Nylander, but still a notch.

Nylander might not have shown up in the top 5 rankings on various lists, but I recall a lot of chatter about how he's got the talent to be better than even the guys drafted top three (Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl), but people were just not sure he had the attitude/work ethic to make use of those talents.

Overall I do agree with your point, but I also think that if you don't want your GM thinking his scouts know more than the consensus, then you should be glad Snow took MDC. That said, I do believe a GM should think his scouts know more than the consensus -- that's the whole reason he hired them.

The bolded is my overall point. If you hire a scouting staff, you should expect them to know more than the average joe who works for these scouting bureaus. If you're paying a scout, and he is incapable of evaluating these prospects any better than some random dude who works for McKeen's or Central Scouting, then why even pay them in the first place? Get rid of all scouts, buy a copy of THN's Draft Preview, and select whichever player is the "consensus" pick when you draft.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

he's been bad at it in the early first round but most of his later picks have been good.

Unfortunately, in order to build a successful team, you really need to make hay in the 1st round, especially in the lottery picks. If you don't hit there, you're gonna have a hard time.

 

[Beautvillier]

Unfortunately, in order to build a successful team, you really need to make hay in the 1st round, especially in the lottery picks. If you don't hit there, you're gonna have a hard time.

yep, it's become obvious that we haven't been able to add a group of players who have game changing talent. that talent almost always comes in the early first round.

 

[Seph]

Nylander might not have shown up in the top 5 rankings on various lists, but I recall a lot of chatter about how he's got the talent to be better than even the guys drafted top three (Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl), but people were just not sure he had the attitude/work ethic to make use of those talents.

The bolded is my overall point. If you hire a scouting staff, you should expect them to know more than the average joe who works for these scouting bureaus. If you're paying a scout, and he is incapable of evaluating these prospects any better than some random dude who works for McKeen's or Central Scouting, then why even pay them in the first place? Get rid of all scouts, buy a copy of THN's Draft Preview, and select whichever player is the "consensus" pick when you draft.

Nylander was viewed as having top end talent, so yes, there certainly was chatter. But for the reasons you list, he was also viewed as being riskier than the top guys, which is what dropped him below them in the rankings. Which still would indicate the consensus had him below MDC. But either way, it seems we agree on the overall point, so it's a bit moot either way.

 

[Islesfan22]

I said last season he reminded me a bit of Brock Nelson only not nearly as good a skater. Its looking more likely MDC is the next Scott Scissons