Blue Jays Discussion: Meaningful Baseball Continues

[Epictetus]

New thread, last one was over.

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[HamiltonNHL]

Yanks 4 Bosox 0

 

[Channelcat]

Hopefully a late game can kick start these guys. Sounds goofy, but I think a change routine can be huge.

 

[Loosie]

Well the scores so far certainly favor the Jays. Maybe that plus Donaldson return is the shot in the arm this team need right now (plus playing the Angels)

 

[Suntouchable13]

What would happen if there is a 3 way tie for first place in the AL East at the end of the season? What are the tie breaking procedures in that scenario? It can actually happen.

 

[zeke]

how about a 4 way tie?

 

[Scrub*]

before today,2 way tie for first %14 chance, 2 way tie for wild card 2, %20 chance. Has been changing alot last couple days. Al East ofc.

 

[King Mapes]

how about a 4 way tie?

Lol could you imagine.. Never seen a division this tight.

 

[Longshot]

What would happen if there is a 3 way tie for first place in the AL East at the end of the season? What are the tie breaking procedures in that scenario? It can actually happen.

Sportsnet just had a story about that last week. I forget the details, but there would be one-game showdowns to determine the division winner and wild card.

 

[Longshot]

Here is the story: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/whirlwind-playoff-scenarios-possible-tightly-packed-al-east/

But it doesn't go into a three-way tie scenario.

But, I think, if there is a three way tie they do a draw at the end of the season. Two teams would play an elimination game and the winner would then take on the other team to determine the division winner, with the loser advancing to the wild card game.

 

[Longshot]

Tie breakers explained:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules/

 

[theaub]

What would happen if there is a 3 way tie for first place in the AL East at the end of the season? What are the tie breaking procedures in that scenario? It can actually happen.

Teams classified as A, B and C. Team with best record amongst the three tied teams selects first and so forth. Right now records are: Blue Jays (17-15), Orioles (15-16), Red Sox (15-16). Orioles would have second pick based on H2H record vs Red Sox

If both non-division winners would be wild card teams
- Game 1: B @ A - loser is wild card
- Game 2: C @ Winner of G1 - winner is division, loser hosts loser of G1 in WC game

If one non-division winner would be wild card
- Game 1: B @ A - loser eliminated
- Game 2: C @ Winner of G1 - winner is division champ, loser goes to WC game

If there is a tie with outside of division team for wild card (ie three way tie + Tigers have same record)
- Team outside of division is D
- Game 1: B @ A
- Game 2: D @ C
- If D wins Game 2, they are a wild card team. Winner of G1 is division winner. Loser of G1 hosts C for second wild card spot
- If C wins Game 2, Winner of G1 hosts C for division title. Loser is wild card. Loser of G1 hosts D for second wild card spot.

 

[King Mapes]

Can't believe Sox came back. I stopped checking at 5-2 in the 9th. Unreal.

 

[zeke]

if Gibby pulled a move like girardi did today, and not gone straight to his elite closer with a 3 run lead in the 9th in the biggest game of the year, i would have been less than happy.

 

[Discoverer]

if Gibby pulled a move like girardi did today, and not gone straight to his elite closer with a 3 run lead in the 9th in the biggest game of the year, i would have been less than happy.

And you know, to an extent, I get it. He threw 20 pitches last night and 16 the day before. But he was obviously willing to use him since he did at the first sign of trouble, and he's been overworking his top relievers for years. It's hilarious that now, in a huge game against the division leader in mid August, he decides to try to get fancy and protect his big arm.

Rivera, Robertson, Chapman, Miller and Betances have hidden a lot of the problems, but he's so damn bad at managing a bullpen.

 

[zeke]

exactly - if he was willing to use him if needed anyways, that is one helluva time to get cute.

 

[Discoverer]

exactly - if he was willing to use him if needed anyways, that is one helluva time to get cute.

Yep. And it would have been perfectly defensible to say he's unavaible and just go with other guys.

 

[Kurtz]

Rivera, Robertson, Chapman, Miller and Betances have hidden a lot of the problems, but he's so damn bad at managing a bullpen.

According to this data, he's the second best manager in the major league in bullpen management (Gibbons is 2nd worst)

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-bullpen-managers-mike-matheny-joe-girardi/


The Yankees are also firmly in the playoff race despite a roster that...should not be anywhere near it.

I'll quote a bit more from that article:

"Girardi is already regarded as a bullpen whisperer; BMAR just clinches the case. In April 2014, Fox Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal passed on the praise of a “rival AL exec” who’d told him that Girardi was “the best [he’d] seen at managing a bullpen.” The BBWAA is onboard: Girardi (who won the NL Manager of the Year Award in 2006) hasn’t finished lower than sixth in AL MotY voting since 2008, even though his high-payroll teams have missed the playoffs twice. After eight seasons in the country’s largest media market, Girardi’s bullpen use still gets a seal of approval from both bloggers and tabloid beat writers, two tough-to-please constituencies. It’s even more impressive that Girardi leads in BMAR given his reluctance to use relievers three days in a row, which limits his options in some high-leverage situations: This season, the Yankees ranked 29th in reliever appearances on zero days’ rest, but they also ranked first in multi-inning outings. For what it’s worth, the Yankees have exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an average of two games per season during Girardi’s years at the helm, as have the Angels during Scioscia’s 16 years in Anaheim."

 

[Kurtz]

he's been overworking his top relievers for years.

In 2015, the Yankees were ranked 29th in using their relievers on 0 days rest, having done so only 80 times. Angels were first, having done so 146 times.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l...er-pitching.shtml#teams_reliever_pitching::29

 

[zeke]

welcome back, josh.

 

[Discoverer]

According to this data, he's the second best manager in the major league in bullpen management (Gibbons is 2nd worst)

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-bullpen-managers-mike-matheny-joe-girardi/


The Yankees are also firmly in the playoff race despite a roster that...should not be anywhere near it.

I'll quote a bit more from that article:

"Girardi is already regarded as a bullpen whisperer; BMAR just clinches the case. In April 2014, Fox Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal passed on the praise of a “rival AL exec†who’d told him that Girardi was “the best [he’d] seen at managing a bullpen.†The BBWAA is onboard: Girardi (who won the NL Manager of the Year Award in 2006) hasn’t finished lower than sixth in AL MotY voting since 2008, even though his high-payroll teams have missed the playoffs twice. After eight seasons in the country’s largest media market, Girardi’s bullpen use still gets a seal of approval from both bloggers and tabloid beat writers, two tough-to-please constituencies. It’s even more impressive that Girardi leads in BMAR given his reluctance to use relievers three days in a row, which limits his options in some high-leverage situations: This season, the Yankees ranked 29th in reliever appearances on zero days’ rest, but they also ranked first in multi-inning outings. For what it’s worth, the Yankees have exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an average of two games per season during Girardi’s years at the helm, as have the Angels during Scioscia’s 16 years in Anaheim."

I actually remember reading that, and I remember Gibbons being near the bottom... but not the Girardi part. Thanks.

While I understand it's not possible, it would be really interesting to see how pitcher availability would change those rankings. Anecdotally, it seems like half the time Jays fans freak out about a reliever choice, we later find out the guy we wanted them to use wasn't available for whatever reason.

I'll also admit that my comment on pitcher overuse was primarily based on the raw innings totals Betances has had the last few years.

As for the reliance on a few elite relievers, I suppose that's more of a team construction issue than a manager issue.

Now that I'm officially wrong on all of that, can we just get back to hating Joe Girardi?

 

[Discoverer]

I like how a couple rabid anti-Gibbites made it into the game thread just under the wire. Because a Jays game just wouldn't be a Jays game without someone freaking out about a relatively innocuous decision by the manager.

 

[sabresEH]

I like how a couple rabid anti-Gibbites made it into the game thread just under the wire. Because a Jays game just wouldn't be a Jays game without someone freaking out about a relatively innocuous decision by the manager.

Gibby can't win. If he went with say Cecil to save Osuna and he gets into trouble/blows it those same fans would be cursing Gibby for not using him 'cause we NEEDED that win. That's why Osuna was used. That win was needed.

 

[PG Canuck]

Sanchez pitching in Seattle at all? Haven't been able to fully pay attention to how the rotation is being worked.

Probables have Estrada, Happ and Dickey/Sanchez for the games in Seattle.

Would really love to see Sanchez over Dickey...or anyone really.

 

[Gargyn]

Gibby can't win. If he went with say Cecil to save Osuna and he gets into trouble/blows it those same fans would be cursing Gibby for not using him 'cause we NEEDED that win. That's why Osuna was used. That win was needed.

That, and the probability of Dickey sucking balls tomorrow and not needing Osuna, makes me believe he made the right choice. Nice to see a few runs on the board, hopefully they can build on it. I don't have much confidence though. Saunders potential salary went from 20 million plus per season before the all star break and nownhe should be lucky to get smoak money. He's been hot garbage.