McDavid vs Ovechkin

Do you think McDavid will eclipse Ovechkin's career and be an all-time better player?


  • Total voters
    170

bathdog

Registered User
Oct 27, 2016
920
157
The adjustment would be lower than that IMO. You can't just adjust from league GPG when a larger percentage of that higher goals per game came from powerplay scoring. He was 3rd in points and 5th in points per game and also 3rd in goals so it's not a given he would've been the clear 2nd best goal scorer last season or the 2nd best point producer in the league.

So I guess the only adjustment allowed is the one that suits your agenda. Got it.

Ovechkin severely benefitted from the increased PP's, just like Crosby in 07.

Of the top10 scorers only Savard (10th) were more dependant on the PP for their points than Ovechkin. Ovechkin scored close to 50% of his points on PP, Jagr was at 42.x% and Thornton at 40.x%.
 
  • Like
Reactions: authentic

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,820
5,710
Visit site
Common sense? I'm not even talking about the top 15 scorers, only the top 3. Thornton had the best season of his career and carried Cheechoo to 56 goals and Jagr still scored way more than McDavid even after adjusting for scoring. Is it unreasonable to think that they were actually better than McDavid? You can't just compare point finishes as if every year is the same and I doubt many people would disagree that Jagr and Thornton that season were better than McDavid last season.

That wasn't the argument. The argument was that OV's 106 points > McDavid's 100 points.
 

WesMcCauley

Registered User
Apr 24, 2015
8,616
2,600
Ovechkin´s goalscoring is so insane that i will take his individual career over what i think Mcdavid´s individual career will look like.
 

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,488
10,044
Still see McDavid putting up a couple or few 130+ seasons yet. So yeah I think he will surpass Ovie.

People had the same wild imaginations about Crosby. 13 seasons later he has all of two art rosses and hasn’t cracked 90 points in 4 years.
 

bathdog

Registered User
Oct 27, 2016
920
157
Still see McDavid putting up a couple or few 130+ seasons yet. So yeah I think he will surpass Ovie.

Hehe yeah shooting for the stars. Barring a significant change in scoring environment, potting 120+ just once in his career would be an achievement.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,393
10,411
So I guess the only adjustment allowed is the one that suits your agenda. Got it.

If that's what you took from my post then so be it, but McDavid led the points race by 11 while being first in points per game and won the Hart and Lindsay. Ovechkin was 3rd in goals and 19 points behind the Art Ross and Hart winner.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,393
10,411
Hehe yeah shooting for the stars. Barring a significant change in scoring environment, potting 120+ just once in his career would be an achievement.

Even with scoring up considerably this season we still won't be seeing a 110+ point player.
 

ricky0034

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
14,862
6,941
better overall player? maybe

better "career"? very doubtful,Ovechkin is gonna have a legitimate argument for being the best goal scorer of all time when it's all said and done and McDavid is gonna have a tough time achieving anything that really competes with that in the eyes of history even if he does end up "better" in an overall sense with how much the rest of Ovechkin's game has fallen off over the years
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,393
10,411
He literally just turned 21, his peak is yet to come and he's already a better two-way player and play driver than peak Ovechkin. I say barring any drastic injuries a player with 5+ scoring titles and MVPs will go down as the better player, especially if he doesn't drop off in his mid 20s like Ovechkin did. I see him being more like Malkin and Crosby in that sense.
 
Last edited:

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,393
10,411
Still see McDavid putting up a couple or few 130+ seasons yet. So yeah I think he will surpass Ovie.

Maybe in the mid 90s. Not today. The best we could hope for IMO if scoring doesn't increase alot would be 5-8 105-115 point seasons with great two way play, I think that's his ceiling and would be enough to make him hands down the best player since Lemieux IMO.
 

PinkFly

Registered User
Oct 30, 2017
764
319
Ovechkin can atleast make playoffs lol. McDavid can't will his team to the playoffs like an Ovechkin, Crosby or Matthews.
 

KoozNetsOff 92

Hala Madrid
Apr 6, 2016
8,567
8,229
He literally just turned 21, his peak is yet to come and he's already a better two-way player and play drive than peak Ovechkin. I say barring any drastic injuries a player with 5+ scoring titles and MVPs will go down as the better player, especially if he doesn't drop off in his mid 20s like Ovechkin did. I see him being more like Malkin and Crosby in that sense.

Don't care about 2 way play, but where are you getting better play driver from? Peak OV's CF >> McDavid.
 

bathdog

Registered User
Oct 27, 2016
920
157
Even with scoring up considerably this season we still won't be seeing a 110+ point player.

Maybe in the mid 90s. Not today. The best we could hope for IMO if scoring doesn't increase alot would be 5-8 105-115 point seasons with great two way play, I think that's his ceiling and would be enough to make him hands down the best player since Lemieux IMO.

Assuming health I would expect McDavid to approach 110 ish at the very least during his peak. 120+ would be exceptional though.

Disregarding the higher scoring seasons, since the millennium some of the highest scoring seasons Jagr hit 121, Sakic hit 118, Forsberg paced for 116, Ovechkin paced for 124, Malkin paced for 119.

Jagr saw 23 min+ TOI. Ovechkin/Malkin/Sakic (giving Sakic a discount for his SH) all saw 21 min+. McDavid currently gets around 21, but the majority/rest of scoring/ppg leaders see more in the vicinity of Forsberg's 19 min. If that's a trend that continues I think we'll see fewer 100+ seasons going forward.

If we'd look at it in 3 similar length spans (excluding the higher scoring seasons on purpose, as well as the lockout, on purpose to keep similar environments)...

During 00/01-03/04 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Jagr/Sakic/Forsberg with 115+ pace)
23 min+: 4
22-23 min: 1
21-22 min: 0
20-21 min: 1
19-20 min: 4

avg TOI: 21:31
avg PPG: 1.312
100pts seasons: 5

During 07/08-11/12 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Ovechkin/Malkin with 115+ pace)
23 min+: 2
22-23 min: 2
21-22 min: 5
20-21 min: 0
19-20 min: 1

avg TOI: 21:55
avg PPG: 1.372
100pts seasons: 9 (+2 outside top10 ppg)

During 13/14-17/18 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Nobody)
23 min+: 0
22-23 min: 0
21-22 min: 3
20-21 min: 2
19-20 min: 3
18-19 min: 2

avg TOI: 20:24
avg PPG: 1.239
100pts seasons: 3

Hardly a conclusive analysis but I think there is a clear correlation between TOI and scoring.

Of the 19 100+ pts seasons since 00/01, only 6 players saw below 21:00 TOI (Kane 16, D. Sedin 11, H. Sedin 10, Backstrom 10, Naslund 03, Forsberg 03), only 4 players saw below 20:00 (D. Sedin 11, H. Sedin 10, Naslund 03, Forsberg 03), only 1 player saw below 19:00 (D. Sedin 11).

This year 2-3 players may hit 100, the avg TOI among top10 ppg is 19:58, but as you say scoring is also up a bit. Unless scoring spikes, or TOI start increasing among elite offensive players, I don't think we'll see many 110+ seasons, and definitely not 130+ seasons!
 

KoozNetsOff 92

Hala Madrid
Apr 6, 2016
8,567
8,229
Look at their teams, and also I've watched them both a lot.

That's a nice excuse. 07/08 OV had 43 more pts than 2nd on his team. Last time I checked McDavid isn't that far ahead of anyone and he at least has a ~PPG Drai the last 2 seasons. The 07/08 caps weren't a good team so your excuse doesn't work.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,393
10,411
Assuming health I would expect McDavid to approach 110 ish at the very least during his peak. 120+ would be exceptional though.

Disregarding the higher scoring seasons, since the millennium some of the highest scoring seasons Jagr hit 121, Sakic hit 118, Forsberg paced for 116, Ovechkin paced for 124, Malkin paced for 119.

Jagr saw 23 min+ TOI. Ovechkin/Malkin/Sakic (giving Sakic a discount for his SH) all saw 21 min+. McDavid currently gets around 21, but the majority/rest of scoring/ppg leaders see more in the vicinity of Forsberg's 19 min. If that's a trend that continues I think we'll see fewer 100+ seasons going forward.

If we'd look at it in 3 similar length spans (excluding the higher scoring seasons on purpose, as well as the lockout, on purpose to keep similar environments)...

During 00/01-03/04 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Jagr/Sakic/Forsberg with 115+ pace)
23 min+: 4
22-23 min: 1
21-22 min: 0
20-21 min: 1
19-20 min: 4

avg TOI: 21:31
avg PPG: 1.312
100pts seasons: 5

During 07/08-11/12 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Ovechkin/Malkin with 115+ pace)
23 min+: 2
22-23 min: 2
21-22 min: 5
20-21 min: 0
19-20 min: 1

avg TOI: 21:55
avg PPG: 1.372
100pts seasons: 9 (+2 outside top10 ppg)

During 13/14-17/18 Top10 ppg seasons > 65GP (Nobody)
23 min+: 0
22-23 min: 0
21-22 min: 3
20-21 min: 2
19-20 min: 3
18-19 min: 2

avg TOI: 20:24
avg PPG: 1.239
100pts seasons: 3

Hardly a conclusive analysis but I think there is a clear correlation between TOI and scoring.

Of the 19 100+ pts seasons since 00/01, only 6 players saw below 21:00 TOI (Kane 16, D. Sedin 11, H. Sedin 10, Backstrom 10, Naslund 03, Forsberg 03), only 4 players saw below 20:00 (D. Sedin 11, H. Sedin 10, Naslund 03, Forsberg 03), only 1 player saw below 19:00 (D. Sedin 11).

This year 2-3 players may hit 100, the avg TOI among top10 ppg is 19:58, but as you say scoring is also up a bit. Unless scoring spikes, or TOI start increasing among elite offensive players, I don't think we'll see many 110+ seasons, and definitely not 130+ seasons!

Yep, I totally agree. Especially if Edmonton doesn't improve a lot as a team during his prime years.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->