McDavid or Matthews

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93LEAFS

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You have your logic of cause and effect backwards. I think you've manage to confuse yourself with all your different narratives and tangents that you've gone off on in this thread.
I know McDavid playing more isn't the cause of the loses. I never said that. My point was, that the way the ice-time is split, it has that effect. McDavid scores more in games he plays under 21 minutes, McDavid scores less in games he plays over 21 minutes. He also tends to win more when he plays less than 21 minutes, and lose more when he plays over 21 minutes.

So do you think McDavid taking one less shift a game, is a significant reason for him scoring more in those games. I do not. I personally think its due to the fact he scores more in those games, causing his team to win, which leads to him playing less. When trailing, he is playing more, due to the coach trying to chase the game at all costs, especially is, when its a close game.

This applies to almost all elite scorers. I don't get why that is a tough concept to grasp. It isn't even a shot or trying to belittle McDavid. It is something that holds true across all elite scorers. Especially ones that play on winning teams.

So, if you are trying to make an argument against TOI affecting total points to split it like that is pointless. You would need to split it into 4 different categories to try to somewhat eliminate score-effects.
 

crackdown44

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Dec 1, 2017
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Yes the Penguins have. Matthews has none of those either. He only has a Calder trophy that he won because the more prolific player got a bad concussion. Keep moving goalposts and trying to sidetrack the thread though.

I agree with you on almost everything you’ve said except for this point. Most leafs fans also make me want to gauge out my own eyes and insult everyone on their team but Matthews is a better player than Laine. No one would pick Laine over Matthews to build a team around.

(In b4 insulted jets fans)
 

nabob

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I know McDavid playing more isn't the cause of the loses. I never said that. My point was, that the way the ice-time is split, it has that effect. McDavid scores more in games he plays under 21 minutes, McDavid scores less in games he plays over 21 minutes. He also tends to win more when he plays less than 21 minutes, and lose more when he plays over 21 minutes.

So do you think McDavid taking one less shift a game, is a significant reason for him scoring more in those games. I do not. I personally think its due to the fact he scores more in those games, causing his team to win, which leads to him playing less. When trailing, he is playing more, due to the coach trying to chase the game at all costs, especially is, when its a close game.

This applies to almost all elite scorers. I don't get why that is a tough concept to grasp. It isn't even a shot or trying to belittle McDavid. It is something that holds true across all elite scorers. Especially ones that play on winning teams.

So, if you are trying to make an argument against TOI affecting total points to split it like that is pointless. You would need to split it into 4 different categories to try to somewhat eliminate score-effects.
You're ignoring the fact that McDavid plays a ton in all situations. He doesn't take one less shift in the 3rd when his team is up by a goal or two than he does when they are down by a goal or two. He isn't like players like Stamkos, Ovi, Goudreau, Kucherov, Kane, and others who aren't relied upon to be lead holders as well as players to lead a comeback. It's obvious you need to watch him play more and spend less time with your abacus.
 

nabob

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I agree with you on almost everything you’ve said except for this point. Most leafs fans also make me want to gauge out my own eyes and insult everyone on their team but Matthews is a better player than Laine. No one would pick Laine over Matthews to build a team around.

(In b4 insulted jets fans)

Never said that though. Laine was the most prolific rookie in the league before sustaining a really bad concussion. His season took a huge downturn after that and there's no reason to believe it would have done the same if he wouldn't have been badly injured.
 

hockeyguy1967

Trans hockey fan! Go Leafs and Oilers!
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I agree with you on almost everything you’ve said except for this point. Most leafs fans also make me want to gauge out my own eyes and insult everyone on their team but Matthews is a better player than Laine. No one would pick Laine over Matthews to build a team around.

(In b4 insulted jets fans)

Oilers would 100% take Laine. He would be perfect winger for McDavid and win the Rocket every year.
 

93LEAFS

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You're ignoring the fact that McDavid plays a ton in all situations. He doesn't take one less shift in the 3rd when his team is up by a goal or two than he does when they are down by a goal or two. He isn't like players like Stamkos, Ovi, Goudreau, Kucherov, Kane, and others who aren't relied upon to be lead holders as well as players to lead a comeback. It's obvious you need to watch him play more and spend less time with your abacus.
Then why does what I pointed out also apply to Crosby, Malkin and Tavares.

You are basically saying it doesn't apply because McDavid has his own rules.

Besides that point. Even if what you've said is true. How can you not see how this would dramatically influence his points per game when his ice-time is divided at the 21 minutes mark. You don't think it skews the results heavily? If not explain why McDavid is a point per game player when he plays over 21 minutes, but when he plays under he is a 1.39. There is no logical reason except that it is dramatically influenced by whether his team wins or not.

It could be smaller things along the way, like his team got more PP's than penalty's that game (he plays more PP minutes than PK minutes). It could be he gets empty net points. But, the issue is, it heavily skews the more minutes measurement. You would have to isolate them into under 21 minutes win and loss to get an accurate representation on what is fueling those numbers.
 

nabob

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McDavid was 3rd in points per game his rookie season on one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Matthews was around 30th his rookie season. Last season McDavid was 1st and this season he is currently 3rd. This season Matthews is currently around 30th in points per game again. That is a sizable gap with a lot of players in between. If Matthews is comparable to McDavid then a reasonable argument could likely be made for another 20 players as well. Somehow Matthews deserves to be in that conversation and not the other 20 or so players producing results as good or better. Of course points are not everything, but I do not consider intangibles as a reasonable argument to close that wide of a gap, especially since their actual results cannot be measured accurately.

McDavid has produced results at an elite pace since joining the NHL and has not needed biased statistics or being a rookie excuse to earn comparisons to the best in the NHL.


Should we change the thread title to Matthews or Kane, Benn, Stamkos, Kucherov, Ovi, Giroux, Kopitar, Wheeler, Schwann, Tarasenko, Scheifele, Kuznetsov, MacKinnon, Barkov, Malkin, Marchand...
 

nabob

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Then why does what I pointed out also apply to Crosby, Malkin and Tavares.

You are basically saying it doesn't apply because McDavid has his own rules.

Besides that point. Even if what you've said is true. How can you not see how this would dramatically influence his points per game when his ice-time is divided at the 21 minutes mark. You don't think it skews the results heavily? If not explain why McDavid is a point per game player when he plays over 21 minutes, but when he plays under he is a 1.39. There is no logical reason except that it is dramatically influenced by whether his team wins or not.

It could be smaller things along the way, like his team got more PP's than penalty's that game (he plays more PP minutes than PK minutes). It could be he gets empty net points. But, the issue is, it heavily skews the more minutes measurement. You would have to isolate them into under 21 minutes win and loss to get an accurate representation on what is fueling those numbers.

No you would have to use ice time stats for when the team is leading or trailing, taking into account the amount of PP time and the score at the time as well as who was injured and who was playing well on whatever night. You're ignoring every factor that could influence it. You're doing exactly what someone who has never watched a single NHL game would do.
 

nabob

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Oilers would 100% take Laine. He would be perfect winger for McDavid and win the Rocket every year.

Puljujarvi ain't looking too bad now that he's getting his chance. We may have lost that lottery, and damn would it have been amazing to keep the 2nd pick, but hopefully Puljujarvi can keep it up.

Crazy that he's on pace for 29 goals while only playing 13 minutes per game with absolutely no PP time.

But yeah I'd take Laine.
 

93LEAFS

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No you would have to use ice time stats for when the team is leading or trailing, taking into account the amount of PP time and the score at the time as well as who was injured and who was playing well on whatever night. You're ignoring every factor that could influence it. You're doing exactly what someone who has never watched a single NHL game would do.
I love how this is your go to. I've probably watched more hockey than you.

You seem to want to ignore a basic fact that is supported by statistics. I don't know why. I guess you think it belittles McDavid, when it is a factor for almost all elite scorers, including Matthews.

So what fuels the dramatic difference in his ppg when he plays over and under 21 minutes. You have made no attempt to answer that, you just say my conclusion isn't true (that it is driven by how much he plays in wins and losses.

Large sample sizes would remove the inconsistencies you are talking about. When there is one heavily recurring theme you can't ignore it, and then attribute it to everything else.
 
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Kelly

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Doubt the Oilers pass up a center core of McDavid/Matthews, your PP would be lethal as well. I would imagine all GMs would unanimously take Matthews 1st in a redraft.
 

Petrus

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Too many ifs and buts for Matthews at the moment to make this even close.

McDavid has just kicked it up a notch. I actually think he is even better this year in comparison to last year.

I am fan both. Hoping Matthews can get healthy and get back to the level he was playing prior to his 1st injury.
 
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crackdown44

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Oilers would 100% take Laine. He would be perfect winger for McDavid and win the Rocket every year.

If they had 1st overall that year they would have 100% drafted Matthews or traded down for Laine depending on what assets were offered. No team was drafting Laine 1st overall that year, despite the fake “Matthews vs Laine” hype that TSN creates for every two top prospects every single year
 

nabob

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I love how this is your go to. I've probably watched more hockey than you.

You seem to want to ignore a basic fact that is supported by statistics. I don't know why. I guess you think it belittles McDavid, when it is a factor for almost all elite scorers, including Matthews.

So what fuels the dramatic difference in his ppg when he plays over and under 21 minutes. You have made no attempt to answer that, you just say my conclusion isn't true (that it is driven by how much he plays in wins and losses.

Large sample sizes would remove the inconsistencies you are talking about. When there is one heavily recurring theme you can't ignore it, and then attribute it to everything else.
The inconsistencies that I'm talking about happen all the time in every game. You take take an incredibly simplistic view of things if you wish. You have developed your narrative and chose a number that supports it. Good job.
 

TIGERCOOL

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Sep 29, 2014
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Too many ifs and buts for Matthews at the moment to make this even close.

McDavid has just kicked it up a notch. I actually think he is even better this year in comparison to last year.

I am fan both. Hoping Matthews can get healthy and get back to the level he was playing prior to his 1st injury.
Agreed. I never thought Matthews was McDavids caliber per say, but it was certainly a more interesting conversation when he was healthy. Hasn't been himself in a month and it's pretty sad to see. The Oilers fans can have their vindication and glory on an internet thread, I just want Matthews to get well.
 

nabob

Big Daddy Kane
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Too many ifs and buts for Matthews at the moment to make this even close.

McDavid has just kicked it up a notch. I actually think he is even better this year in comparison to last year.

I am fan both. Hoping Matthews can get healthy and get back to the level he was playing prior to his 1st injury.

Or did Matthews go through a cold stretch just like he did at times last season. There's nothing to suggest that he was playing injured. Would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to even consider playing a great young player while injured this early in the season considering their record.
 

93LEAFS

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The inconsistencies that I'm talking about happen all the time in every game. You take take an incredibly simplistic view of things if you wish. You have developed your narrative and chose a number that supports it. Good job.
I didn't choose the number. Someone else did. Have you not realized this? Daver chose the 21 minute mark as the cut-off. So I this isn't a case of me picking a number and building it. A number was shown, and I pointed out what was happening to an extent.

Except inconsistencies happen over a bunch of games slowly eliminates them as the cause. You have to look for what is recurring. The two recurring themes are, he gets more points when he plays less than 21 minutes and the oilers win more when he plays less than 21 minutes. In general, players score more when there team wins. They also tend to play slightly less. If you choose a cut-off point that happens in-between (in McDavid's case 21 minutes is 19 seconds more than his average ice-time in a win, while 41 seconds less than his average ice time in a loss). Do you not understand how this can dramatically skew things.

You seem to be unable to accept that score-effects dramatically pollute the cut-off and measuring effectiveness for McDavid in those games.
 

Petrus

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Or did Matthews go through a cold stretch just like he did at times last season. There's nothing to suggest that he was playing injured. Would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to even consider playing a great young player while injured this early in the season considering their record.

During Matthews slump last year he was generating chances. Very different this year after he came back from his injury. Not the same player. It is entirely possible we was not 100%.
 

nabob

Big Daddy Kane
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I didn't choose the number. Someone else did. Have you not realized this? Daver chose the 21 minute mark as the cut-off. So I this isn't a case of me picking a number and building it. A number was shown, and I pointed out what was happening to an extent.

Except inconsistencies happen over a bunch of games slowly eliminates them as the cause. You have to look for what is recurring. The two recurring themes are, he gets more points when he plays less than 21 minutes and the oilers win more when he plays less than 21 minutes. In general, players score more when there team wins. They also tend to play slightly less. If you choose a cut-off point that happens in-between (in McDavid's case 21 minutes is 19 seconds more than his average ice-time in a win, while 41 seconds less than his average ice time in a loss). Do you not understand how this can dramatically skew things.

You seem to be unable to accept that score-effects dramatically pollute the cut-off and measuring effectiveness for McDavid in those games.

*their.

It doesn't dramatically skew things at all. It's the amount of one shift or the difference between 3 powerplays and 4 powerplays, or Nuge having a skate issue, or Drai getting hurt, or him being hard matched by the other coach and being double shifted.
 

93LEAFS

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*their.

It doesn't dramatically skew things at all. It's the amount of one shift or the difference between 3 powerplays and 4 powerplays, or Nuge having a skate issue, or Drai getting hurt, or him being hard matched by the other coach and being double shifted.
You are using it for individual games. Answer this then.

What do you think the actual driving force for him scoring better when he plays under 21 minutes game? If it isn't primarily winning like I have said. What exactly is it?

You can't point to individual reasons for more ice-time in an individual game. Except why is it a recurring theme. These things also happen in games he loses.
 

nabob

Big Daddy Kane
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During Matthews slump last year he was generating chances. Very different this year after he came back from his injury. Not the same player. It is entirely possible we was not 100%.
Then Babcock and the entire organization are morons for letting him play if he wasn't 100%. Playing through strep throats and the flu is one thing but playing with a concussion or bad back is just stupid and can have long term effects. Like Kevin Lowe/Steve Tambellini level of stupid.
 

nabob

Big Daddy Kane
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You are using it for individual games. Answer this then.

What do you think the actual driving force for him scoring better when he plays under 21 minutes game? If it isn't primarily winning like I have said. What exactly is it?

You can't point to individual reasons for more ice-time in an individual game. Except why is it a recurring theme. These things also happen in games he loses.

Too many factors in play for the difference in one shift to have any effect. Would need to watch the game to see why he scored less on a given night, can't tell that by simply looking at TOI and the score. You may think hockey is that simple but it isn't.
 

Quiet Jack

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Mar 24, 2017
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Hopefully the McDavid flu argument can just go away. I have now read he lost 15 lbs. Come on.

McDavid is better but let's stop with the flu stuff.

Lol 15 lbs
 
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