Speculation: Matt Duchene Megathread - All News/Proposals Go Here

[FourRings]

The whole notion of "two-year rental" is absurd. Matt Duchene is worth, to me, two firsts and a B-level prospect. No blue-chippers unless we're talking a pretty much straight up deal.

 

[Dr Quincy]

And where did I say that little missy? Typical HF poster, can't actually defend your absurd comments so you gotta make up BS about the other person to take the focus off what the other person has actually said.

I've certainly had some arguments over the years with the poster you are responding too, but dude, that's a completely demeaning line.

 

[chet1926]

Oh so now he's a first line winger, but not a #1 C? Well then, his value to the rest of the league just went down.

Last season he wasn't a first line player at all. Moving forward if you think he's a first line W then you aren't getting the return you think. If you think he's a #1 C then he may have to go out and prove that he can still play like one before you get the value you want.

Well by your definition Malkin is a 2C, Draisaitl is a 2C etc. because apparently the only way to judge someone is by their standing on their teams depth chart.

Duchene plays 1C on a lot of teams in the NHL including CLB, some teams like Pittsburgh are simply lucky enough to have two guys capable of being 1C caliber players. The Avs happen to be one of these teams with two 1C caliber centers in MacKinnon and Duchene. Duchene can also play wing at a high level, this only increases his value as he is showing the ability to play more than one position at a high level.

 

[Crede777]

Duchene plays 1C on a lot of teams in the NHL including CLB,

Surely not based on last season's production...

 

[Cash for Nash]

The whole notion of "two-year rental" is absurd. Matt Duchene is worth, to me, two firsts and a B-level prospect. No blue-chippers unless we're talking a pretty much straight up deal.

I'd agree that he's worth 2 firsts as well as a B level prospect (Ryan Collins ex).

Unfortunately, Av's fans think he's worth double that.

 

[FourRings]

I'd agree that he's worth 2 firsts as well as a B level prospect (Ryan Collins ex).

Unfortunately, Av's fans think he's worth double that.

And that's absurd as well. If consensus was that Duchene is worth that price then one of the GMs interested would've paid up. All Sakic is doing, and it's his right to do so, is delaying the rebuild of the Avs because the Avs are sure as hell going to be a better team with Duchene than they are without him; but his trade value is dropping by the day REGARDLESS if he returns to form or not, the Avs have seen the best offers they are going to.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

I've certainly had some arguments over the years with the poster you are responding too, but dude, that's a completely demeaning line.

This guy must have had a bad week or something, he's been that way on the Avs board too.

Except Malkin has 1st line numbers.
Except Malkin plays 1st line level defense.
Except Malkin makes the players around him better than they are.
Except Malkin is behind a generational 1st line C, while Duchene is behind a C who isn't that good defensively and hasn't cracked 40 assists.

Pittsburgh does indeed have 2 #1Cs. It's why they won the Cup multiple times.

Quite true, you're kinda just proving my point that someone on the 2nd line doesn't have to be a 2nd line player. Personally I wouldn't argue one way or the other who our #1C is, I've advocated it's Duchene for a long time and recognize the arguments it's MacKinnon given both their seasons. Neither put up #1C numbers this year.

COL doesn't have 2 #1Cs. If they did they wouldn't have finished last in scoring. I checked, no team that finished last in scoring in the 10 years prior to last year had 2 guys who wold be considered #1Cs. Most didn't even have one #1C. #1Cs make their wings, even crappy ones, good enough to not finish last in goals.

Here's where I disagree though. A #1C does not have to make the players around them into scoring machines or literally carry their team to the promise land on their backs. That's not a #1C, that's an elite center. Those players are few and far between. The Avs have a weird situation where their centers carry the play much more than normal. I wouldn't argue that Stastny is better than MacKinnon, but he elevates the play of his linemates better than MacKinnon.

MacKinnon might some day be a #1C but isn't right now. There are certainly questions as to whether Duchene is still a #1C. Sorry, when you are asking for a top4 under 25 D + 1st +a top prospect it's not semantics to argue whether someone is actually a #1C.

I've already been over this with Duchene, but it's the same with MacKinnon. Single one of them out from the Avs, adjust for team scoring and place him on another team. I know it's not perfect, but there's also examples of it holding up so it's a barometer that can be included in an argument. Duchene and MacKinnon could put up first line center production on a team that wasn't a dumpster fire.

It is at the root of the whole point. But I don't need to explain that to you because I know you already realize that.

Touche. Too bad I wasn't saying it to be an ass though.

 

[Kranix]

The whole notion of "two-year rental" is absurd. Matt Duchene is worth, to me, two firsts and a B-level prospect. No blue-chippers unless we're talking a pretty much straight up deal.

I agree. Frankly, Jordan Eberle is a comparable, and he netted Strome.

 

[Crede777]

I've already been over this with Duchene, but it's the same with MacKinnon. Single one of them out from the Avs, adjust for team scoring and place him on another team. I know it's not perfect, but there's also examples of it holding up so it's a barometer that can be included in an argument. Duchene and MacKinnon could put up first line center production on a team that wasn't a dumpster fire.

I would agree for any player besides MacKinnon or Duchene. They're good enough that they should be able to carry a line. It's not really a chicken or the egg problem. If offense isn't being generated, you can (and should) look directly at the players who are expected to be the catalysts for that offense. Especially if they're highly touted centers.

Yes, coaching can be an issue. And yes injury can be an issue. But by and large, if a team isn't producing offensively, you need look no further than the top centers. That's their job. And if they aren't doing their jobs then maybe they need to go.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

And that's absurd as well. If consensus was that Duchene is worth that price then one of the GMs interested would've paid up. All Sakic is doing, and it's his right to do so, is delaying the rebuild of the Avs because the Avs are sure as hell going to be a better team with Duchene than they are without him; but his trade value is dropping by the day REGARDLESS if he returns to form or not, the Avs have seen the best offers they are going to.

How is keeping Duchene delaying the rebuild, if he's not going to return the piece that the Avs really need to finish the rebuild? Does trading him for futures and redundant prospects somehow guarantee them a LHD in a future draft? Should they tank and draft 4OA again, likely missing out on Dahlin and McIsaac? I don't get how trading Duchene for anything less than what the Avs need is going to speed up the rebuild, so I'd love to hear how it's going to work from someone who apparently knows the future.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/friedman-reviews-dynamics-duchene-trade-situation/

“Duchene… some people rip the Avalanche and they say they’re being obstinate. Their perspective is – look, one of the guys Columbus was talking about was Ryan Murray. And I really don’t like where I’m going to go with this because I have a bad feeling it’s going to be totally misinterpreted – because I don’t want to insult Ryan Murray. But the way Colorado looks at it is he is their fifth defenseman. ‘We’re not trading Matt Duchene for a fifth defenseman.’

“Now, I don’t think that Ryan Murray is a fifth defenseman. I think on that team he has become one. And he has become expendable. They look at Werenski. They look at Savard. Look at their trade for Seth Jones. They’ve got a couple of really good young kids coming. They’ve kept their veteran in Jack Johnson.

“So in Columbus’ eyes, Murray has fallen down their depth chart. And I think Colorado looks at that and says, ‘Why are we going to make a deal for a guy – yes, he can help us. But it’s not really hurting them to give him up.’

“And I hope that doesn’t get misconstrued as an insult to Ryan Murray because that’s not what I mean by it. I’m just saying he’s not one of their top D. So I think that’s kind of part of the problem, is they look at it and say, ‘Well we need more than that.’ “

Murray has another season left on his contract at a $2.85 million contract and will be eligible for arbitration next summer.

“Nashville is a really interesting one,” continued Friedman on the Duchene trade front. “I think they’ve asked Nashville for Ekholm. And Nashville doesn’t want to do that. If Colorado was going to make that trade, that’s a heck of a return. After watching Ekholm in the playoffs, holy cow is that guy a great player. Nashville doesn’t want to do that and not only that, but he’s signed to a great contract. So I think they’re just going to hold out here.”

Friedman added one final point on a potential Duchene trade timeline:

“Now, Chris MacFarland – who is the right-hand man of Joe Sakic there in Colorado – he traded Rick Nash on July 23,” the Insider noted. “So he’s patient. He was with Scott Howson when they made that deal and it was July 23, and they waited until they got what they wanted. So I think that Colorado is going to follow the same path.”

Whether or not the description of Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic being perceived as ‘obstinate’ by some is actually accurate or not doesn’t really matter, but right or wrong the widely-held belief is that a Duchene trade has not yet materialized because of Colorado’s asking price.

So what exactly has that asking price been?

There have been two particularly notable tidbits on that front, as provided by a pair of TSN Insiders.

Darren Dreger this week noted Sakic’s asking price is “definitely the holdup,” and that “the ask depends on the team that Joe Sakic is negotiating with, or the team that has expressed interest. I’ve heard that it’s been as high as a couple of first-round picks, or at least a first-round pick and a former first-round draft pick who’s now a young NHL prospect, and then some and then some.”

Dreger indicated that he didn’t blame Sakic for a second, and that the GM was “holding on to a blue-chip asset.”

The most specific description of Sakic’s believed asking price came from Bob McKenzie in February, nearly a month before the trade deadline.

“Everybody knows the price of poker,” said McKenzie at the time. “That is either three high-end pieces or four high-end pieces. By high-end pieces we mean this:

“If it’s three high-end pieces, we’re talking about a player that’s established in the NHL already – between 20-24 years of age – as well as a first-round pick, as well as a top prospect.

“If the young NHL isn’t established, if it’s all prospects, then the price goes up to those four high-end pieces.”

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

I would agree for any player besides MacKinnon or Duchene. They're good enough that they should be able to carry a line. It's not really a chicken or the egg problem. If offense isn't being generated, you can (and should) look directly at the players who are expected to be the catalysts for that offense. Especially if they're highly touted centers.

Yes, coaching can be an issue. And yes injury can be an issue. But by and large, if a team isn't producing offensively, you need look no further than the top centers. That's their job. And if they aren't doing their jobs then maybe they need to go.

The crazy thing is that they were generating offense. No excuses that Duchene jumped off a cliff to end the season, until then he was carrying the team with MacKinnon and even ahead of MacKinnon. They were the only ones you could watch and know they were there to play.

What makes it crazy is how little everyone else showed up too. If you look at points scored with the Avs last year there was absolutely no threat from the depth. The separation between top 5 players and the rest of the team was the exact same between Colorado and Pittsburgh, 2.5x scoring. Meaning Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, etc scored at 2.5x the rate of the rest of the team. As did the Avs top players. But in Pittsburgh their 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines actually produced and were threats.

So there's a problem here somewhere and it's systemic. You don't normally see players go from 59 points down to 41 unless something else is wrong. Which is everyone's guess. If Duchene and MacKinnon were just in a rut, you'd expect the others to still be scoring in some way because it's isolated to those players.

My thoughts? Coaching and injuries played a big role, Bednar wasn't using the players right and key guys like EJ and Varly went down. Team spirit was completely wrong, sometimes when you get in a rut you know how it spirals? The Avs spiraled and badly, they went down a goal or two and didn't have the mental fortitude to climb out. I don't think you can pin that on any subset of players. And one of the biggest ones? Depth scoring. If the other team can focus on 5 of your players and know that no one else is capable of scoring then you're never going to be successful. When you pickup a previously waived player at the deadline and they score at a higher rate than anyone else on your team something major is wrong.

Anyways... I'm sure a bunch of people will keep the narrative they're washed up #2 centers. But I'm equally sure when Duchene is traded that fanbase will laugh at what they gave up relative to his production.

 

[chet1926]

Surely not based on last season's production...

One bad season on the worst team in 20 years doesn't make a career.

 

[PensPlz]

Maybe we won't play the Pittsburgh Penguins?

Unlikely. Thank Gary B and his predictable first round match ups for that for that.


Have to believe that every day Duchene's value deceases. Wouldn't rule out hanging onto him and moving him at the trade deadline when it becomes a seller's market again.

 

[Dr Quincy]

I would agree for any player besides MacKinnon or Duchene. They're good enough that they should be able to carry a line. It's not really a chicken or the egg problem. If offense isn't being generated, you can (and should) look directly at the players who are expected to be the catalysts for that offense. Especially if they're highly touted centers.

Yes, coaching can be an issue. And yes injury can be an issue. But by and large, if a team isn't producing offensively, you need look no further than the top centers. That's their job. And if they aren't doing their jobs then maybe they need to go.

You said it way more eloquently than I did/could.

And to add: I think both are fine players and both COULD be #1s. But right now neither is a sure thing (Will Mac develop his vision/playmaking and defense? Will Duchene bounce back or has he lost a step from his one uber-elite skating?) and I think they are in a weird position because they are a bad fit together as a 1a + 1b combo. Both need a Rod Brind-amour 1b type to take some of those tough matchups away from them.

In a way, I wonder if it would have made more sense (if possible) at the time to resign ROR and deal Duchene, just because he'd be a better fit as a compliment to Mac. But given the contract issues that may not have been possible.

 

[token grinder]

Nashville fan chiming in here....



Ryan Murray is a #5 on Columbus

Fair enough


When Columbus traded Johansen to us, Seth Jones was a #5 dman behind Weber/Josi/Ekholm/Ellis

Point being you can't evaluate it on minutes played.

That seemed to work out well for everyone

 

[Cash for Nash]

https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/friedman-reviews-dynamics-duchene-trade-situation/

Good Article. Thanks for the link.

 

[Boxscore]

He's probably looking for something around the lines of Murray+PLD+1st for Duchene and a small +, hence the reason why we haven't seen a deal.

Well, I'm not a die-hard fan of either team, but I personally like the Avs a lot more than the Jackets. That said, if Sakic is expecting Murray + PLD + 1st for a $6 million a year center who scored 41, 59 and 55 points over the last 3 years, he's completely delusional.

When the Flyers traded Mike Richards, they received a top prospect (Schenn) and a good, young forward (Simmonds). At the time, Simmonds wasn't close to the player he is today.

Sakic is looking for more value in a Duchene trade, which is crazy. Mike Richards was a captain with an excellent 200 foot game and was coming off 3 consecutive seasons of 66, 62, 80 points when traded to the Kings.

A fair return for Duchene is more along the lines of what the Leafs received for Kessel, if we're being honest.

Matt Duchene is a nice player. Maybe even a really nice player. But he's the king of "looking great" without showing up on the score sheet. He's extremely flashy and fancy but his production is far from high-end.

I can buy "Ekholm for Duchene" but Murray, PLD and a 1st is silly. Sakic needs to come back to earth here, or he will continue to oversee a team in disarray with added drama and distractions hanging over their heads. That's not great for a young team looking to mature and grow into a tight bunch.

 

[TheTakedown]

Oh I'm sorry, so we're just supposed to give you Duchene for nothing of any value because he is a hack 41 pts center, who is basically a UFA. If he is so crappy and basically a UFA then why do you want him so badly? Oh that's right because you know he is a good player, who had a down year on a ****** team, and has a sweetheart 6M deal, and he could really improve your team.

This is such a BS cop out argument. We're not at the trade deadline 2 years from now where you'd only get 20ish games+playoffs of Duchene. You get a full two years and the ability to attempt to re-sign him before he even hits UFA.

You're going to have to give something of value to get Duchene, end of of discussion.

"Something of value" is rather broad... Fact is, Duchene had a down year. He's a 1st line player, but he had a bad year. He's a great skater, but he had a bad year. He's a decent locker room guy (I don't actually know, I'm just coming up with reasons why he might be worth what you say he is), but he had a bad year.

Because Duchene had a bad year, GM's don't know what they're getting--is Duchene declining? Probably not, but this has to be considered. Is Duchene a locker room cancer? Probably not, but this has to be considered.

With all those considerations, would you be content with sending a 1st, middle-to-high end prospect, and a replacement roster player? On a guy that could end up as a cap dump for the next 2 years? On a guy that could leave you in 2 years?

Duchene by himself brings back a 1st rounder and a middling prospect. Sakic sitting on Duchene when it's rather well known that Duchene doesn't want to be in this swirl if trade rumors is just going to tank the value further. Once Sakic realizes that, the market could very well be dried up, and then you'll be left with even less value than before.

Nash, during the offseason of 2012, went for a 1st, Prospect, and 2 roster players.

Keith Yandle, at the trade deadline of 2015, went for a 1st round pick, middle-to-high end prospect, and a roster player...

Derek Stepan, who has posted eerily similar stats the last 5 years compared to Duchene--with FOUR years of cost controlled term at age 27--had to be packaged with Antti Raanta for the Rangers to receive a high 1st rounder (7th overall) and a high end prospect (Anthony DeAngelo)...

I cannot see a world where Duchene, after having a ****** year, gets much more than the trades I mentioned above.

I happen to value Duchene as a player a lot, but right now he is not Nathan MacKinnion. If he was, I'd offer up Brady Skjei for him

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Nashville fan chiming in here....



Ryan Murray is a #5 on Columbus

Fair enough


When Columbus traded Johansen to us, Seth Jones was a #5 dman behind Weber/Josi/Ekholm/Ellis

Point being you can't evaluate it on minutes played.

That seemed to work out well for everyone

/thread

 

[Goulet17]

Nashville fan chiming in here....



Ryan Murray is a #5 on Columbus

Fair enough


When Columbus traded Johansen to us, Seth Jones was a #5 dman behind Weber/Josi/Ekholm/Ellis

Point being you can't evaluate it on minutes played.

That seemed to work out well for everyone

I think the issue with Murray is more that he regressed tremendously in terms of his advance stats last season (if you put any credence into those numbers) AND, perhaps most importantly, he has a consistent injury history that keeps him off the ice.

For all of Duchene's faults, he seems to be a more proven NHL player at this point and he has been relatively healthy over his career (a few minor injuries).

In my mind, the risk with Murray is that no one really knows what he is, due to usage and/or injury.

I don't think any of this would prevent Murray being traded for Duchene, but a straight up swap seems of unequal value. Another point, I believe that Murray has only one more RFA year to UFA than Duchene.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Nashville fan chiming in here....



Ryan Murray is a #5 on Columbus

Fair enough


When Columbus traded Johansen to us, Seth Jones was a #5 dman behind Weber/Josi/Ekholm/Ellis

Point being you can't evaluate it on minutes played.

That seemed to work out well for everyone

I think the difference is that everyone saw Seth Jones as the heir apparent to the 1D job in Nashville. At this point, no one sees Murray as the heir apparent to the 1D job in Columbus, because he's firmly behind Werenski. That might not impact his value in a vacuum, or how much he can contribute to the Avs, but it definitely impacts his value to Columbus. If Columbus sees him as expendable, why are the Avs paying full price for him?

 

[Cash for Nash]

I think the issue with Murray is more that he regressed tremendously in terms of his advance stats last season (if you put any credence into those numbers) AND, perhaps most importantly, he has a consistent injury history that keeps him off the ice.

For all of Duchene's faults, he seems to be a more proven NHL player at this point and he has been relatively healthy over his career (a few minor injuries).

In my mind, the risk with Murray is that no one really knows what he is, due to usage and/or injury.

I don't think any of this would prevent Murray being traded for Duchene, but a straight up swap seems of unequal value. Another point, I believe that Murray has only one more RFA year to UFA than Duchene.

I never heard of a straight up swap there Murray/Duchene. I think everyone assumes a 1st would be sent to COL as well. Maybe a decent prospect as well.

 

[Goulet17]

I never heard of a straight up swap there Murray/Duchene. I think everyone assumes a 1st would be sent to COL as well. Maybe a decent prospect as well.

Hmm, who would be the decent prospect?

 

[Dr Quincy]

I think the hold up is this:

Both sides agree Murray + 1st + something else

The dispute is:

COL fans think the + should be =/> than Murray (PLD, Carlsson, Bjork) while CBS fans think the + should be the smallest of the 3 pieces (Milano, other prospect).