Marek Schwarz by the numbers

[Vlad The Impaler]

I love that I'm considered a homer around here.

I love it too.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Just put Stich on your ignore list. It'll save you some grief. I appear to have done exactly that a while back after his Blues homerism annoyed me for the last time.

 

[JR#9*]

Just put Stich on your ignore list. It'll save you some grief. I appear to have done exactly that a while back after his Blues homerism annoyed me for the last time.

I can't believe this guy is shocked when he gets hit with the HOMER tag!!! :lol

He's amoung the very best homers we have here on HF.

What kills me is that he makes this whole drawn out arguement but when called on it and asked to produce things to back up his "claims" he says "let's just move on already"!!!

 

[degroat*]

Like I already said, if thinking that Balej isnt 'easily' better than Sejna make me a homer, then so be it. If saying that Schwarz shouldn't be 26 spots behind Montoya makes me a homer, then so be it.

The best part about all of this is that a banned Blues fan was called every name in the book for thinking that Jackman might be in contention for the Calder.

JR#9, if you're so concerned with my claims then go back and look where they were ranked. It's quite easy. I'll give you one: McKeen's. Now you go ahead and figure the rest out for yourself. Do you think you can do that?

 

[degroat*]

One period he stands on his head and keep his poor team in a game, and the next he looks very ordinary.

And that's exactly what I've been told by a number of people. Oh well though, he's already a bust.

 

[Senor Rational]

Once again I have no problem with Shwarz is being ranked so low....last guy we had in the 40's won the calder....

Is Marek better? Is Montanya better (forgive my spelling)? Who knows, for now, Montanya has accomplished more. Which one is better will be determined in time. B/c Montanya has a WJC gold under his belt, he deserves to be ahead of Marek. To say that Marek will be a bust after just a handful of games is laughable, but to say he will be the next Hasek is questionable and arguable.

And the list....hell the list is a great read. It kinda sucks going to each team's homepage and following their prospects the list is a kick ... way of keeping in tune with the next elite players in the NHL. I dont agree with it completely but Im glad to se one of my prospects on there and a quick read up on different prospects without having to go through numerous pages.

Deep down, I have a feeling Schnieder will be the best goalie from the draft (for real).

 

[Levitate]

i don't think anyone is really arguing that schwarz is a bust yet...he's just had a poor start to his season and people want some insight into that. it's too early to know if he's a bust

as for him vs. montoya...well that's just the way it pans out

 

[Asiaoil]

Ed Belfour
Under 23 Shots: .900 (11 Games)
Over 29 Shots: .934 (7 Games)

etc etc etc

A very interesting list Stich and good on ya for doing the work.

I would suggest - however - that the SV% in the low shot game category is skewed. Many of these "low shot" games represent a goalie's worst games (ie they are playing badly and get pulled). By being pulled - this puts the game into the low shot" catagory by default - when in fact it may be a high shot game if the goalie played the entire 60 minutes. So many of the "low shot" games cited may actually just represent particularly poor performaces - and these all end up in the "low shot" category which makes it appear that facing more shots is good for SV%

If you could remove all the games where the goalie got pulled (played less than 60 minutes). This would remove the false "low shot" games and give a more accurate picture of what's going on.

 

[Cerebral]

A very interesting list Stich and good on ya for doing the work.

I would suggest - however - that the SV% in the low shot game category is skewed. Many of these "low shot" games represent the goalies worst games (ie they are playing badly and get pulled). By being pulled this puts the game into the low shot" catagory by default - when in fact it may be a high shot game if they played the entire 60 minutes. So many of the "low shot" games cited may actually just represent particularly poor performaces that all end up in the "low shot" category

If you could remove all the games where the goalie got pulled (played less than 60 minutes). This would remove the false "low shot" games and give a more accurate picture of what's going on.

That's what I was thinking as well... I would argue that the relationship may be somewhat spurious. I'd be curious to see what the numbers would look like if games where the goaltender was pulled were removed from the calculations...

 

[Asiaoil]

That's what I was thinking as well... I would argue that the relationship may be somewhat spurious. I'd be curious to see what the numbers would look like if games where the goaltender was pulled were removed from the calculations...

Oh man Stich you're in trouble now.......the Oiler board stat fiends are circling. If igor shows up I'd head for the hills

 

[Cerebral]

Oh man Stich you're in trouble now.......the Oiler board stat fiends are circling. If igor shows up I'd head for the hills

:lol

 

[Doomsday Device]

It should be if you wanted to keep any credibility that you would produce examples of all these "more reputable publications" that you've created this whole entire arguement about as you've already stated that YOU have never seen the players your commenting on with such conviction so now that you can't produce even ONE of these "sources" which you speak of where does that leave your credibility???

Nothing wrong with being a homer as long as you don't try and pretend that your not one.

I don't really want to get involved in this skirmish, but I don't think he's lying about publications having Schwarz ahead of Montoya.

The Hockey News had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 8 overall.

Redline had Schwarz as the No. 1 goaltender and Montoya as the No. 2
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2004-06-14-woodlief_x.htm

McKeen's had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 9 overall.
http://www.canoe.ca/HockeyNHLDraft/top15.html

ISS was the only one who had it the other way around, with Montoya at No. 7 overall and Schwarz at No. 12 overall.
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhlentrydraft.php

 

[Asiaoil]

I don't really want to get involved in this skirmish, but I don't think he's lying about publications having Schwarz ahead of Montoya.

The Hockey News had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 8 overall.

Redline had Schwarz as the No. 1 goaltender and Montoya as the No. 2
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2004-06-14-woodlief_x.htm

McKeen's had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 9 overall.
http://www.canoe.ca/HockeyNHLDraft/top15.html

ISS was the only one who had it the other way around, with Montoya at No. 7 overall and Schwarz at No. 12 overall.
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhlentrydraft.php

Yeah but why would you care about what these publications said post-draft? It's a little bit like talking about what the morning line was for a horse race instead of which of the nags actually came win, place, show. Sure it's an opinion - but I've got one too and that and the proverbial 25 cents will get you pretty much sweet FA these days.

The only opinions that mattered were those of 30 NHL teams who picked the players. Some went BPA - some went for position - but we know for sure that at least 2 teams (NYR and Edm) thought Schwarz was not the best goalie available at their draft slots. If we re-did the draft right now - I would bet that NYR and Edmonton would pick exactly the same goalies at their slots.

The fact that Schwarz dropped a lot at the draft raised doubts - and his poor early performce this season has raised more. It's far too early to write this kid off - but it will clearly not be smooth sailing with this prospect either.

 

[Doomsday Device]

Yeah but why would you care about what these publications said post-draft? It's a little bit like talking about what the morning line was for a horse race instead of which of the nags actually came win, place, show. Sure it's an opinion - but I've got one too and that and the proverbial 25 cents will get you pretty much sweet FA these days.

The only opinions that mattered were those of 30 NHL teams who picked the players. Some went BPA - some went for position - but we know for sure that at least 2 teams (NYR and Edm) thought Schwarz was not the best goalie available at their draft slots. The fact that Schwarz dropped a lot at the draft raised doubts - and his poor early performce this season has raised more. It's far too early to write this kid off - but it will clearly not be smooth sailing with this prospect either.

This isn't about me caring. Jr#9 was asking what publications had Schwarz ahead of Montoya and I just showed him which ones.

 

[Asiaoil]

This isn't about me caring. Jr#9 was asking what publications had Schwarz ahead of Montoya and I just showed him which ones.

Not getting on you - this thread is already too long for it's own good and I can't keep up with who is saying what

 

[Levitate]

the rangers were supposedly very interested in schwarz at one point, around the time of the world cup i think...hockeyrodent is the one who's sources in the CR reported on this i believe. but yeah, the feeling was that they were definatly very interested at that point...then in the span of a few months they go with montoya.

makes me wonder what made them pick montoya over schwarz but it seems that the rangers at least really compared the two and decided on montoya...

 

[Hunter Gathers]

This isn't about me caring. Jr#9 was asking what publications had Schwarz ahead of Montoya and I just showed him which ones.

One of JR's main vices would be these publications are over 5 months old now. Some 6 or more months old.

That is mine as well. It's ludicrous to say that these have any bearing on where a prospect should be ranked or thought of since they are from so long ago.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

the rangers were supposedly very interested in schwarz at one point, around the time of the world cup i think...hockeyrodent is the one who's sources in the CR reported on this i believe. but yeah, the feeling was that they were definatly very interested at that point...then in the span of a few months they go with montoya.

makes me wonder what made them pick montoya over schwarz but it seems that the rangers at least really compared the two and decided on montoya...

All that I heard was that his very mediocre international showing had moved him down their list and off of it completely -- they weren't even interested of him at the draft. Montoya moved up a LOT when they started talking to him more and watching him play. I don't know anything else besides that as I'm not an insider by any means -- just heard some rumblings about that.

 

[Oiltalk]

Oh man Stich you're in trouble now.......the Oiler board stat fiends are circling. If igor shows up I'd head for the hills

:lol I'd run pretty far..

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

I don't really want to get involved in this skirmish, but I don't think he's lying about publications having Schwarz ahead of Montoya.

The Hockey News had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 8 overall.

Redline had Schwarz as the No. 1 goaltender and Montoya as the No. 2
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2004-06-14-woodlief_x.htm

McKeen's had Schwarz at No. 6 overall and Montoya at No. 9 overall.
http://www.canoe.ca/HockeyNHLDraft/top15.html

ISS was the only one who had it the other way around, with Montoya at No. 7 overall and Schwarz at No. 12 overall.
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhlentrydraft.php

He was not lying but how many publications are there, and which one to trust?

Here is TSN, where they ranked Montoya 4th and Schwarz 6th:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/draft/feature.asp?fid=9467

Basically, you'll have all kinds of ratings depending on where you look at.

 

[Mizral]

Deep down, I have a feeling Schnieder will be the best goalie from the draft (for real).

Wow!

I personally like David Shantz the most. Not sure if he'll be the best, but I like him the most.

 

[Senor Rational]

Never seen Schnieder live but I love what I hear for the guy.

I was hoping that Pleau would trade down with one of the 20-30 teams and end up with Schremp and Schnieder...

...But as for now Ill settle for Schwarz

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Schneider>>Schwarz at this point.

 

[Mizral]

Schneider>>Schwarz at this point.

Uhh.. based on what exactly? The NCAA is a significant step down from the WHL, and Schneider is not a starter at the NCAA level yet even.

Schneider seems to be at a 'younger point' in his development compared to Montoya & Schwarz, but right now there's little doubt he's behind the two play-wise.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Uhh.. based on what exactly? The NCAA is a significant step down from the WHL, and Schneider is not a starter at the NCAA level yet even.

Schneider seems to be at a 'younger point' in his development compared to Montoya & Schwarz, but right now there's little doubt he's behind the two play-wise.

The NCAA is almost on par with the WHL IMO. Have you not seen Schwarz this year Jay? He's been dreadful. I've defended him in here, but his stats are just subpar.