Larry Brooks: Marc Staal wants to stay in New York

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Levitate

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At 27, Staal has a long way to go.

The worry is that that long ways is down because of his injuries...I'd feel a lot better about it if he didn't have the eye issues, that scares me and makes me worry that a long term contract is just going to be Staal struggling for years and not making the investment a good one
 

TheTakedown

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So we sign him to Girardi's terms, maybe a few $ higher... that still makes him a tradable asset in the event that we need to move him for someone who is ready for his minutes.
 

Zil

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Are you only focusing on offensive numbers?

Nope. But I'm not getting into another advanced stats debate.

Again, exception and not the rule. If we look at the last 25 years of Rangers defensive prospects (and I do not recall them all), how many (McD, Staal & Sauer aside) have stepped in and capably played 2nd pair minutes?

So the Rangers alone have had three guys do it in the last decade. Clearly it's doable for a highly rated defense prospect, which Skjei is.
 

Richter Scale

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"I don't understand the numbers or how to properly apply them, therefore they're stupid."

Was this necessary? I readily admit that I don't understand all of the nuances of corsi or some of the other advanced stats to be able to always talk knowledgeably about them. But I know enough to recognize when, as in the discussions I was referencing, the corsi stats aren't being applied to anything. They were used lazily as nearly the sole support for an argument being put forward for a blanket statement calling Klein "bad." So perhaps you should reserve your judgment next time.

I wasn't meaning to say Ehrhoff was bad (I think the opposite; though I would probably contend that he isn't better than Staal), but rather to point out the irony of just saying "his corsi is bad, so he's bad" without explaining what about the corsi stats (or other stats/qualities/etc) would support that position. When used alone, in my mind corsi is a crutch for a weak argument. When combined with other things, it can be convincing.

You have to compare corsi relative to the rest of the players on a guy's squad. Whenever Ehrhoff steps on the ice his team's corsi goes way up, whenever Klein steps on the ice the opposite happens.

And had this been what you said in the posts I saw, then I might be able to understand your position a bit more as it relates to Klein. But all I saw you say was "Klein is not better than his corsi." And that does not apply the stats in the same way that you did here. (Yes, I know you also explained what it is you see in Klein's game that you felt was lacking; we disagree on pieces of that line of reasoning, but that's a different discussion)

There are problems, as I'm sure you would admit, with making blanket statements that rely almost exclusively on these stats.

Ok - so Klein's team's corsi goes down when he steps on the ice. If that makes him a bad player in your eyes, would you also consider Ryan Suter, Dan Boyle, Cam Fowler, Shea Weber, Kris Letang, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, Slava Voynov, and Dan Girardi bad players? Last season all of their teams had corsis which went down once they stepped on the ice; some by wider margins than others. But, I'm pretty sure you would agree that these guys are some of the best defensemen in the league (in fact I think you've said this about a few of them).

Just making the point that if this is all we're relying on, the argument is pretty weak. There are other factors at play that impact a players' corsi that don't make it gospel by itself.

For instance: What quality of competition was Klein playing against? What were the quality of the teammates he was playing with? What were the quality of the respective teams each of these players played on? Especially with coaches like AV who closely manage zone starts, what were the players' zone starts like? Were they mostly starting in the offensive zone, the defensive zone, or relatively even? Hint: For nearly all of these last season, they present Klein in a bit of a more favorable light.

And as I said in the last discussion, I'm mostly just picking on Zil a bit here; I don't think he uses corsi in this manner for the most part, but I'm looking to have a discussion about the utility of the stat and tease out of him why he sees it as valuable in some situations but not others. That said, if it is too much of a tangent, I'll end it here.

EDIT: Nvm, just saw Zil's post -- feel free to ignore if you'd like.
 
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True Blue

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So the Rangers alone have had three guys do it in the last decade. Clearly it's doable for a highly rated defense prospect, which Skjei is.
And how many have they had in the last 25 years? Just because something is doable, does not make it likely. And in this case, the chances are against what you are suggesting.
 

True Blue

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The worry is that that long ways is down because of his injuries...I'd feel a lot better about it if he didn't have the eye issues, that scares me and makes me worry that a long term contract is just going to be Staal struggling for years and not making the investment a good one
I understand the argument. And it is fair. Maybe I am more optimistic on this, but I feel that he is a good risk.
 

Zil

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And how many have they had in the last 25 years? Just because something is doable, does not make it likely. And in this case, the chances are against what you are suggesting.

Nice job tossing the bad drafting period of the 90s in there when the Ranger farm system produced next to nothing and Neil Smith traded whatever it did dig up.
 

True Blue

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Nice job tossing the bad drafting period of the 90s in there when the Ranger farm system produced next to nothing and Neil Smith traded whatever it did dig up.
You can go back as many years as you want to and see that a rookie playing second pairing minutes capably is a rarity.
 

TheTakedown

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Was this necessary? I readily admit that I don't understand all of the nuances of corsi or some of the other advanced stats to be able to always talk knowledgeably about them. But I know enough to recognize when, as in the discussions I was referencing, the corsi stats aren't being applied to anything. They were used lazily as nearly the sole support for an argument being put forward for a blanket statement calling Klein "bad." So perhaps you should reserve your judgment next time.

I wasn't meaning to say Ehrhoff was bad (I think the opposite; though I would probably contend that he isn't better than Staal), but rather to point out the irony of just saying "his corsi is bad, so he's bad" without explaining what about the corsi stats (or other stats/qualities/etc) would support that position. When used alone, in my mind corsi is a crutch for a weak argument. When combined with other things, it can be convincing.



And had this been what you said in the posts I saw, then I might be able to understand your position a bit more as it relates to Klein. But all I saw you say was "Klein is not better than his corsi." And that does not apply the stats in the same way that you did here. (Yes, I know you also explained what it is you see in Klein's game that you felt was lacking; we disagree on pieces of that line of reasoning, but that's a different discussion)

There are problems, as I'm sure you would admit, with making blanket statements that rely almost exclusively on these stats.

Ok - so Klein's team's corsi goes down when he steps on the ice. If that makes him a bad player in your eyes, would you also consider Ryan Suter, Dan Boyle, Cam Fowler, Shea Weber, Kris Letang, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, Slava Voynov, and Dan Girardi bad players? Last season all of their teams had corsis which went down once they stepped on the ice; some by wider margins than others. But, I'm pretty sure you would agree that these guys are some of the best defensemen in the league (in fact I think you've said this about a few of them).

Just making the point that if this is all we're relying on, the argument is pretty weak. There are other factors at play that impact a players' corsi that don't make it gospel by itself.

For instance: What quality of competition was Klein playing against? What were the quality of the teammates he was playing with? What were the quality of the respective teams each of these players played on? Especially with coaches like AV who closely manage zone starts, what were the players' zone starts like? Were they mostly starting in the offensive zone, the defensive zone, or relatively even? Hint: For nearly all of these last season, they present Klein in a bit of a more favorable light.

And as I said in the last discussion, I'm mostly just picking on Zil a bit here; I don't think he uses corsi in this manner for the most part, but I'm looking to have a discussion about the utility of the stat and tease out of him why he sees it as valuable in some situations but not others. That said, if it is too much of a tangent, I'll end it here.

EDIT: Nvm, just saw Zil's post -- feel free to ignore if you'd like.

I'd like to add onto this, for defensemen in particular, that the Corsi is also very dependent on the Defensive partner of that defenseman...

Klein plays with John Moore, who has minimal hockey IQ...

McDonagh plays with Girardi, a seasoned veteran...

Staal himself is a seasoned vet. We'll find out this season how well Stralman's play actually is without Staal
 

Raspewtin

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I'd like to add onto this, for defensemen in particular, that the Corsi is also very dependent on the Defensive partner of that defenseman...

Klein plays with John Moore, who has minimal hockey IQ...

McDonagh plays with Girardi, a seasoned veteran...

Staal himself is a seasoned vet. We'll find out this season how well Stralman's play actually is without Staal

THe problem is when you have defensemen with outstandingly bad corsi, it tends to show in that the team's overall possession goes down when they come on the ice. There are isolated stats for that. Kevin Klein appears to be one of the worst defenders when it comes to that.
 

True Blue

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It's not rare when you have a highly rated young defenseman. And we do.
It is pretty rare when you look at the overall body of work for young defenseman. And while the Rangers like him, where is he in the overall ranking for young players?
 

Zil

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I'd like to add onto this, for defensemen in particular, that the Corsi is also very dependent on the Defensive partner of that defenseman...

Klein plays with John Moore, who has minimal hockey IQ...

McDonagh plays with Girardi, a seasoned veteran...

Staal himself is a seasoned vet. We'll find out this season how well Stralman's play actually is without Staal

John Moore is a better possession player than Klein. And I'm no fan of Moore, but the results are clear.

Moore without Klein: 52.2%
Moore with Klein: 49.7
Klein without Moore: 45.9%

Klein has a unique talent for getting his team pinned in its own zone.

It is pretty rare when you look at the overall body of work for young defenseman. And while the Rangers like him, where is he in the overall ranking for young players?

There is no consensus overall ranking. Buchnevich isn't even in our own top 10 according to THN, but Pronman thinks he's the 26th best prospect in all of hockey. THN has Duclair in our top 10, but Pronman doesn't even have Duclair in his top 100. The bottom line is that the Rangers believe Skjei's Hartford ready at the very least right now or they wouldn't have tried to sign him. After another year of development, which is what he's getting this season, he could very easily wind up here and ready to play. The size, the skating, and the general physical abilities are not in question here. His defensive game is very well regarded. The questions about his prospect ranking revolve around how much offense he'll develop, but in a competition with a zero offense player like Staal that doesn't really matter.

And like I said before, a short-term problem is never a good reason to create a long-term one. It's debatable whether Staal is worth $6 million right now and the quality of his play is only going to move in one direction at this point.
 

NYR Viper

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John Moore is a better possession player than Klein. And I'm no fan of Moore, but the results are clear.

Moore without Klein: 52.2%
Moore with Klein: 49.7
Klein without Moore: 45.9%

Klein has a unique talent for getting his team pinned in its own zone.

And yet the team played better when Klein was brought in? Very odd.
 

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There is no consensus overall ranking. Buchnevich isn't even in our own top 10 according to THN, but Pronman thinks he's the 26th best prospect in all of hockey. THN has Duclair in our top 10, but Pronman doesn't even have Duclair in his top 100. The bottom line is that the Rangers believe Skjei's Hartford ready at the very least right now or they wouldn't have tried to sign him. After another year of development, which is what he's getting this season, he could very easily wind up here and ready to play. The size, the skating, and the general physical abilities are not in question here. His defensive game is very well regarded. The questions about his prospect ranking revolve around how much offense he'll develop, but in a competition with a zero offense player like Staal that doesn't really matter.

And like I said before, a short-term problem is never a good reason to create a long-term one. It's debatable whether Staal is worth $6 million right now and the quality of his play is only going to move in one direction at this point.

Though I think asking Skjei to step in and play 20+ minutes a night would be a very tall task, this was very well said. Not only are prospect rankings all over the place, they're almost always wrong, especially when it comes to Defensemen.


Depending on what they do with Eric and Jordan, I would be 100% behind moving Staal for something around Sekera, who I happen to think would fit in quite well here even if he doesn't replicate his numbers from last season. IIRC he's signed through the end of 15-16 so it would allow the Rangers to break Skjei in slowly before upping his minutes in year two.
 

Off Sides

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Still do not know what effect these small percentages have? What does a 3% corsi difference when Klein is on the ice work out to over the course of a year? Is it like 10 shots one way or another, or is it like 100 shots per year?
 

Ail

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And yet the team played better when Klein was brought in? Very odd.

Very coincidental unless you can show us otherwise. Winning as a team is not proof Klein is the cause of winning just because it started happening when he showed up.
 

Zil

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And yet the team played better when Klein was brought in? Very odd.

Because Lundqvist pulled himself out of his early season funk and posted a .933 save percentage down the stretch. He was too good of a goalie to be struggling like that for much longer. And no that boost did not come courtesy of Klein:

Over a three-year span, it doesn’t matter whether a forward sees his team stop 94% or 90% of the shots with him on the ice at 5-on-5; either way, the best guess for how he’ll do in the next three years is league average. If there are differences between players in their ability to influence the opponents’ shooting percentage, those differences are much less than whatever other random factors come into play.

Making judgments about forwards’ defense based on how many goals are scored against their team with them on the ice is a mistake. It gives the player credit or blame for save percentages that have zero predictive value and therefore makes the ratings significantly worse than they would be if we used only the shot totals.

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense
 

NYR Viper

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Because Lundqvist pulled himself out of his early season funk and posted a .933 save percentage down the stretch. He was too good of a goalie to be struggling like that for much longer. And no that boost did not come courtesy of Klein:

Was Hank's save percentage worse when Klein was on the ice by a significant margin?
 

Zil

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Was Hank's save percentage worse when Klein was on the ice by a significant margin?

What Klein can help control is the number of shots Hank faces, not his save percentage. The best way to put it is that Lundqvist's return to his normal levels of excellence outweighed the negative impact of adding Klein to the mix.
 

True Blue

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There is no consensus overall ranking. Buchnevich isn't even in our own top 10 according to THN, but Pronman thinks he's the 26th best prospect in all of hockey. THN has Duclair in our top 10, but Pronman doesn't even have Duclair in his top 100. The size, the skating, and the general physical abilities are not in question here. His defensive game is very well regarded. The questions about his prospect ranking revolve around how much offense he'll develop, but in a competition with a zero offense player like Staal that doesn't really matter.
Do any of the ranking have Skej listed as a top prospect?
The bottom line is that the Rangers believe Skjei's Hartford ready at the very least right now or they wouldn't have tried to sign him. After another year of development, which is what he's getting this season, he could very easily wind up here and ready to play.
They also believed that prospects like Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark and Hugh Jessiman were worthy of first round picks.

Any way you slice it, calling Skej a top prospect who can handle 2nd line pairing in his rookie year is pure hopefulness. It is a prayer for prospect what is not considered to be a top prospect by any publication and has not stepped a toe onto the ice. SO to jettison Staal because the Rangers were in hurry to get Skej signed is at best short sighted.
And like I said before, a short-term problem is never a good reason to create a long-term one. It's debatable whether Staal is worth $6 million right now and the quality of his play is only going to move in one direction at this point.
That is fine. It is your opinion and it is a fair thought. My feelings lie a different way on Staal.
 

Kakko

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What Klein can help control is the number of shots Hank faces, not his save percentage. The best way to put it is that Lundqvist's return to his normal levels of excellence outweighed the negative impact of adding Klein to the mix.

That's complete crap.

Klein can control the quality of shots that Lundqvist faces. That's the whole point. A good defenseman prevents high quality scoring chances.
 

vladmyir111

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What Klein can help control is the number of shots Hank faces, not his save percentage. The best way to put it is that Lundqvist's return to his normal levels of excellence outweighed the negative impact of adding Klein to the mix.

No, what more importantly he can control is the quality of shots Lundqvist faces. Everyone noticed the D settle down when he was brought it. And that's because DZ sucked bad and he was replaced by a steady d-man that plays a decent game.
 

Levitate

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I feel like people and teams are still working on figuring out how to quantify the quality of scoring chances and up until now it hasn't really been taken into affect because they figured tracking shot attempts overall tracked pretty well with goals scored/goals given up.

I'll be interested to see what comes out of it all in a few years
 
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