Confirmed with Link: Maple Leafs re-sign Nikita Zaitsev for 7 years, $4.5M per

[ConnorTO]

lol people using numbers

this guy is a pleb for a few years nothing numbers don't mean jack ****

only skilled people know if a guy is pro or not if it's hot shot lucky like clarkson get rich off idiots who don't know how to gauge players

 

[thewave]

Thought this was interesting:

Shots-per-60 on the PP last season:

1. Rielly - 12.36 (73 mins)
2. Gardiner - 9.14 (210 mins)
3. Zaitsev - 6.70 (161 mins)

Rielly also had the best points-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 4.12
2. Zaitsev - 4.09
3. Gardiner - 3.43

And far-and-away the best primary assists-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 1.65
2. Gardiner - 0.57
3. Zaitsev - 0.37

Rielly had the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages of those 3 as well, with the man advantage.

So why the hell isn't Rielly getting more time on the PP?

Yes it was very strange. I was thinking the same very often. Once Morgan went to 2nd pairing and got more PP time his numbers skyrocketed. More important he looked way better!

 

[Battle Lin]

ya theres not a lot of PP time for our D, nylander and marner runs the point for their units

 

[Randy Randerson]

The Dumoulin signing makes the Zaitsev signing feel pretty good for value. Zaitsev played more minutes against tougher competition, was probably cast a little over his head as a top pairing dman and his Corsi&Fenwick stats reflect that. Dumoulin played 2nd pairing and had a little better Corsi&Fenwick&relatives to go with the lesser competition, Zaitsev is a far superior offensive player

Thought this was interesting:

Shots-per-60 on the PP last season:

1. Rielly - 12.36 (73 mins)
2. Gardiner - 9.14 (210 mins)
3. Zaitsev - 6.70 (161 mins)

Rielly also had the best points-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 4.12
2. Zaitsev - 4.09
3. Gardiner - 3.43

And far-and-away the best primary assists-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 1.65
2. Gardiner - 0.57
3. Zaitsev - 0.37

Rielly had the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages of those 3 as well, with the man advantage.

So why the hell isn't Rielly getting more time on the PP?

I think it's because Rielly has no slap shot - the dman in Babcock's system plays the high point without the puck, so being able to put hard shots on seems like a must and unfortunately Rielly's is a muffin. It's too bad, I think he'd be looked at as a very good PPQB in a 2 dman deployment

 

[MLSE]

Thought this was interesting:

Shots-per-60 on the PP last season:

1. Rielly - 12.36 (73 mins)
2. Gardiner - 9.14 (210 mins)
3. Zaitsev - 6.70 (161 mins)

Rielly also had the best points-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 4.12
2. Zaitsev - 4.09
3. Gardiner - 3.43

And far-and-away the best primary assists-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 1.65
2. Gardiner - 0.57
3. Zaitsev - 0.37

Rielly had the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages of those 3 as well, with the man advantage.

So why the hell isn't Rielly getting more time on the PP?

Not disputing, just curious... what did the PP units numbers look like on a whole with Rielly in and out?

 

[Duke Silver]

Not disputing, just curious... what did the PP units numbers look like on a whole with Rielly in and out?

I'm not sure how to get those details.

 

[biotk]

Thought this was interesting:

Shots-per-60 on the PP last season:

1. Rielly - 12.36 (73 mins)
2. Gardiner - 9.14 (210 mins)
3. Zaitsev - 6.70 (161 mins)

Rielly also had the best points-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 4.12
2. Zaitsev - 4.09
3. Gardiner - 3.43

And far-and-away the best primary assists-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 1.65
2. Gardiner - 0.57
3. Zaitsev - 0.37

Rielly had the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages of those 3 as well, with the man advantage.

So why the hell isn't Rielly getting more time on the PP?

Probably something to do with this:

PP GF/60 and (GF/60 - GA/60)
Zaitsev - 9.8 (+8.0)
Gardiner - 8.3 (+7.4)
Rielly - 6.6 (+4.9)

 

[sparxx87]

Rielly is primarily kept off the PP because most often teams follow a PK with their top lines. He's who Babcock wants next shift on defense.

Rielly is the most talented/high potential defender on the team and Babcock is surely trying to develop his defensive game. Offense is secondary, the primary emphasis is teaching Rielly to command the defensive zone during moments of offensive pressure from the other team. He already defends the rush pretty well, but his decision making on switches and where to be off the cycle on good puck movement is what really needs work if he's ever going to be a top defenseman.

He improved a lot towards the end of last season so I'd expect this trend to continue while Babcock utilizes Gardiner and Zaitsev on the PP with 4 Fwds.

 

[TheCLAM]

Thought this was interesting:

Shots-per-60 on the PP last season:

1. Rielly - 12.36 (73 mins)
2. Gardiner - 9.14 (210 mins)
3. Zaitsev - 6.70 (161 mins)

Rielly also had the best points-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 4.12
2. Zaitsev - 4.09
3. Gardiner - 3.43

And far-and-away the best primary assists-per-60 on the PP:

1. Rielly - 1.65
2. Gardiner - 0.57
3. Zaitsev - 0.37

Rielly had the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages of those 3 as well, with the man advantage.

So why the hell isn't Rielly getting more time on the PP?

I get what you are doing here.. I agree Rielly had the best #'s - but limited minutes will naturally skew the results higher IMO

 

[43Kadri43]

Probably something to do with this:

PP GF/60 and (GF/60 - GA/60)
Zaitsev - 9.8 (+8.0)
Gardiner - 8.3 (+7.4)
Rielly - 6.6 (+4.9)

You better hope not. That would show a fundamental misunderstanding of goal stats. You shouldn't even use single season 5v5 goal metrics because the lack of occurrences/events makes the reliability (and therefore its implications) virtually non-existent.

 

[biotk]

You better hope not. That would show a fundamental misunderstanding of goal stats. You shouldn't even use single season 5v5 goal metrics because the lack of occurrences/events makes the reliability (and therefore its implications) virtually non-existent.

I better hope not why? So Babs recognized that the PP was simply not clicking with Rielly and instead gave more PP ice-time to Zaitsev and Gardiner for which was PP was converting much better, and in doing so ended up with a team that had one of the best PPs in the league. Oh my God!! That is terrible. Crisis mode!! Enter crisis mode!! This team is completely screwed and management of the team should be turned over to the keyboard warriors.

The year before it was 5.6 GF/60 for Rielly and the year before that 4.5 GF/60.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Rielly is primarily kept off the PP because most often teams follow a PK with their top lines. He's who Babcock wants next shift on defense.

Rielly is the most talented/high potential defender on the team and Babcock is surely trying to develop his defensive game. The offense is secondary, the primary emphasis is teaching Rielly to command the defensive zone during moments of offensive pressure from the other team. He already defends the rush pretty well, but his decision making on switches and where to be off the cycle on good puck movement is what really needs work if he's ever going to be a top defenseman.

He improved a lot towards the end of last season so I'd expect this trend to continue while Babcock utilizes Gardiner and Zaitsev on the PP with 4 Fwds.

Rielly is just not a good quarterback in the Ozone, his offensive skill is off the rush. Babcock is playing BPA on the PP, he coaches to win every shift/game, from what I see.

 

[613Leafer]

I get what you are doing here.. I agree Rielly had the best #'s - but limited minutes will naturally skew the results higher IMO

They could just as easily skew them lower. It's just a small sample size issue which means increased variability in either direction.

 

[Battle Lin]

rielly is better rushing into the zone, but on PP we use nylander and marner as that role and they are great at it...rielly actually has a very mediocre point shot too, jake and zaitsev point shot are nothing special as well but they still best of our D men, our D really cant shoot the puck

 

[43Kadri43]

I better hope not why? So Babs recognized that the PP was simply not clicking with Rielly and instead gave more PP ice-time to Zaitsev and Gardiner for which was PP was converting much better, and in doing so ended up with a team that had one of the best PPs in the league. Oh my God!! That is terrible. Crisis mode!! Enter crisis mode!! This team is completely screwed and management of the team should be turned over to the keyboard warriors.

That's not a determination you can make with goal metrics.

The year before it was 5.6 GF/60 for Rielly and the year before that 4.5 GF/60.

There's no repeatability. On-ice goal differentials (especially with a sample as small as single year PP) are not indicative of competence.

 

[Born and Raised]

That contract length is insane

 

[AppsSyl]

That contract length is insane

Perhaps maybe you should wait see how he rebounds this coming season. He had a good rookie year, and a lot of factors contributed to an off season last season (injuries, new dad with likely lack of sleep, tough qoc, not getting bounces, etc). I am willing to see how he rebounds next season before I write him off. People may just end up looking silly saying how bad the contract is, if he rebounds.

 

[Born and Raised]

Perhaps maybe you should wait see how he rebounds this coming season. He had a good rookie year, and a of factors contributed to an off season last season (injuries, new dad with likely lack of sleep, tough qoc, not getting bounces, etc). I am willing to see how he rebounds next season before I write him off. People may just end up looking silly saying how bad the contract is, if he rebounds.

I mean he could end up a superstar and it'd still be an insane contract length for a mostly unproven post-rookie season defenseman.

I think he maintains a #4 and thats fine at his price point

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I mean he could end up a superstar and it'd still be an insane contract length for a mostly unproven post-rookie season defenseman.

I think he maintains a #4 and thats fine at his price point

It was a pretty big risk to sign a KHL free agent to a 7 year deal after 1 season but I get it. Managment just picked up a free wallet who was reasonably young and did pretty well in the number 1 RD spot, I get why they wanted to make sure he stuck around.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What's wrong with the contract length? It's actually really good, because it ends right at the end of his prime. It's insane that people offer 7 year deals to 30 year olds, or that there are some people who want to offer long term deals to guys in their mid-30's.

 

[Maple Leaf]

What's wrong with the contract length? It's actually really good, because it ends right at the end of his prime. It's insane that people offer 7 year deals to 30 year olds, or that there are some people who want to offer long term deals to guys in their mid-30's.

7 yr deal for ahl defenseman

 

[stickty111]

7 yr deal for ahl defenseman

 

[Coachcorner]

This trump huuge for us mayne! We gon love this here. We would have needed zaitsev one hunnid % in the playoffs again this season, he is that great and hard as F.

He did that, yeah mayne, he did that.

 

[The CyNick]

Top-5 Toughest Usage Dmen by opponents' TOI:

1.Vlasic 30.09
2.Braun 30.04
3.Zaitsev 29.93
4.Hjalmarsson 29.89
5.Keith 29.83

Their possession in that elite tough usage (score/zone adjusted):

CF%

1.Zaitsev 50.94
2.Hjalmar 50.15
3.Keith 49.91
4.Vlasic 49.28
5.Braun 48.09

CF% Relative

1.Keith -0.43
2.Hjalmar -1.31
3.Zaitsev -1.57
4.Vlasic -4.89
5.Braun -6.20

Expected Goals %

1.Vlasic 51.22
2.Braun 50.91
3.Zaitsev 50.89
4.Hjalmar 48.47
5.Keith 46.50

xGF% Relative

1.Hjalmar -1.17
2.Braun -2.39
3.Keith -2.90
4.Vlasic -3.27
5.Zaitsev -3.40

So he received similar usage and performed as well or better than the two toughest usage d-pairings in all of hockey - 2 of whom are keystones to the best defense corps in the world (Team Canada), and a 3rd who is the shutdown dman for the 2nd best Dcorps in the world (Team Sweden).......not to mention he himself is the #1 dman for Team Russia. Those 2 dpairs were also the key dpairings for 2 of the best teams in the league this year.

Not only that, but Zaitsev played fulltime duty on both special teams, both of which were top 10 special teams....and he pitched in a near 40pt pace to boot.


And oh yeah....he did that as a rookie.

Analytics at its finest

 

[Liminality]

Analytics at its finest

You're not going to go far in your GM role if you don't take analytics into account.