Mackinnon vs Matthews

Who do you take going forward?


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Deficient Mode

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Mar 25, 2011
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MacKinnon will most likely be in a more team friendly contract for the next few years and he performed at a slightly higher level than Matthews this year (though not by as much as some think; Matthews' point totals would be far more impressive without injuries and with first power play time). Gonna go with him for now.
 

Namikaze Minato

Registered User
Apr 30, 2009
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Beautiful B.C.
Oh wow, the Calder, he joins the exclusive ranks of Tyler Myers, Andrew Raycroft, and the amazing Barret Jackman.

Definitely on the same level as the Hart. The Calder is probably the most meaningless trophy after the Byng.
hahah wow. You're a joke.

"Tell me when he wins something!"

"He won this."

"That doesn't count! LALALALALALA You can't tell me any different LALALALA"

Way to go, kid. You're the big person in the thread now, pat yourself on the back and tell your wife! Everyone is really impressed.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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MacKinnon will most likely be in a more team friendly contract for the next few years and he performed at a slightly higher level than Matthews this year (though not by as much as some think; Matthews' point totals would be far more impressive without injuries and with first power play time). Gonna go with him for now.

...Nate needed 46 games to put up more points than Matthews has in a full season, and he did so with a lot less help. There was nothing slight about the gap in their performance.

Come on DM. Don't do this, not with the WM about to start...
 

Deficient Mode

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Mar 25, 2011
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...Nate needed 46 games to put up more points than Matthews has in a full season, and he did so with a lot less help. There was nothing slight about the gap in their performance.

Come on DM. Don't do this, not with the WM about to start...

Their 5 on 5 scoring rates this year were even. Matthews had more primary points per minute but MacKinnon's edge in second assists gave him slightly higher total points per minute. Matthews missed more time due to injury and got only half as much power play time as MacKinnon this year because the Leafs other PP unit was clicking at such a high rate. If Matthews has a season of PP success and deployment like he had in 2016-17 and 5 on 5 scoring like he did this year (he was very good at 5 on 5 last year too) over a full 82 games, he'd be a 90-100 point player already too.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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Their 5 on 5 scoring rates this year were even. Matthews had more primary points per minute but MacKinnon's edge in second assists gave him slightly higher total points per minute. Matthews missed more time due to injury and got only half as much power play time as MacKinnon this year because the Leafs other PP unit was clicking at such a high rate. If Matthews has a season of PP success and deployment like he had in 2016-17 and 5 on 5 scoring like he did this year (he was very good at 5 on 5 last year too) over a full 82 games, he'd be a 90-100 point player already too.

They were closer, they weren't even. Nevermind that MacKinnon got that much PP time because he was our PP, without him the unit dropped to 7% while Toronto's PP was effective...albeit not as effective as the MacKinnon show...despite Matthews' absence from the unit. Plus Nate was by far the biggest reason why we spent so much time on the PP; as the kid could've drawn a call on more shifts than not.

So ignoring that massive difference and looking only at their 5 on 5 per 60 is simply disingenuous. As is your final argument. By that same token, if MacK plays like he did for a full season, then he's not a 90-100 point player, he's a 115+ point player. So the gap would still be massive even if we give both the benefit of the doubt about maintaining their best performances over 82 games :dunno:

There's just no way to spin the gap between MacK's season and anything we've seen from Matthews yet, as light. This is like arguing that Dembele's performance for you guys was only slightly better than Puli or Sancho's...
 

Deficient Mode

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Mar 25, 2011
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They were closer, they weren't even. Nevermind that MacKinnon got that much PP time because he was our PP, without him the unit dropped to 7% while Toronto's PP was effective...albeit not as effective as the MacKinnon show...despite Matthews' absence from the unit. Plus Nate was by far the biggest reason why we spent so much time on the PP; as the kid could've drawn a call on more shifts than not.

So ignoring that massive difference and looking only at their 5 on 5 per 60 is simply disingenuous. As is your final argument. By that same token, if MacK plays like he did for a full season, then he's not a 90-100 point player, he's a 115+ point player. So the gap would still be massive even if we give both the benefit of the doubt about maintaining their best performances over 82 games :dunno:

There's just no way to spin the gap between MacK's season and anything we've seen from Matthews yet, as light. This is like arguing that Dembele's performance for you guys was only slightly better than Puli or Sancho's...

Well I'm not comparing their value to their current teams. I'm thinking about whose play would translate best to an average team. It's about which player is better, not whose teammates can continue to score on the PP without him.

MacKinnon scored 2.45 primary points per 60 and 3.0 total points per 60 at 5 on 5 this year. Matthews scored 2.6 primary points per 60 and 2.93 total points per 60 at 5 on 5 this year. Those numbers are basically even depending on how heavily you value primary points vs. secondary assists. MacKinnon draws a few more penalties but he also takes more penalties.

I say slight advantage for MacKinnon because he's a clearly better transition player. I don't think his offensive effectiveness is much different than Matthews' at all right now, though. He just gets far higher usage. It's perfectly fair to adjust for that when the question is "who do you take going forward?" rather than "who is more valuable to his team?"
 

JLo217

Registered User
Jul 22, 2009
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A guy in his fifth year in the league vs a guy in his second year in the league. A guy who's first four seasons do not come even remotely close to what the other guy did in his first. A guy who is now having an incredible season vs a guy who is playing very well but struggling with injuries. Mackinnon is arguably the best player in the NHL this year, but I'm taking Matthews.
You know whats funny? You're comparing the number of years in the NHL. Mack isn't even two years older than Matthews.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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Well I'm not comparing their value to their current teams. I'm thinking about whose play would translate best to an average team. It's about which player is better, not whose teammates can continue to score on the PP without him.

MacKinnon scored 2.45 primary points per 60 and 3.0 total points per 60 at 5 on 5 this year. Matthews scored 2.6 primary points per 60 and 2.93 total points per 60 at 5 on 5 this year. Those numbers are basically even depending on how heavily you value primary points vs. secondary assists. MacKinnon draws a few more penalties but he also takes more penalties.

I say slight advantage for MacKinnon because he's a clearly better transition player. I don't think his offensive effectiveness is much different than Matthews' at all right now, though. He just gets far higher usage. It's perfectly fair to adjust for that when the question is "who do you take going forward?" rather than "who is more valuable to his team?"

You're still completely ignoring their PP difference where there was an absolutely monumental gap that one can not just wave away with "usage" :dunno:

It's not like we haven't seen time & time again the way increases in PT affect per 60 numbers lot more than they do total output or per game #s...at least once you get into legit top 6 PT...and that pace is much more volatile over shorter time frames; where it is more likely to be inflated above what would be maintained over 82 games. So we can't just assume that more minutes per game and more games wouldn't have lowered Auston's rates dramatically...like your argument requires.
 
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Leaf Fans

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Sep 29, 2017
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Oh wow, the Calder, he joins the exclusive ranks of Tyler Myers, Andrew Raycroft, and the amazing Barret Jackman.

Definitely on the same level as the Hart. The Calder is probably the most meaningless trophy after the Byng.
Psssh, stupid Leaf Fans the Calder. Those are the only people who have ever won it. Let me know if Nathan MacKinnon, or Mario Lemieux ever wins one. The I will respect the Calder!
 
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Deficient Mode

Registered User
Mar 25, 2011
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You're still completely ignoring their PP difference where there was an absolutely monumental gap that one can not just wave away with "usage" :dunno:

It's not like we haven't seen time & time again the way increases in PT affect per 60 numbers lot more than they do total output or per game #s...at least once you get into legit top 6 PT...and that pace is much more volatile over shorter time frames; where it is more likely to be inflated above what would be maintained over 82 games. So we can't just assume that more minutes per game and more games wouldn't have lowered Auston's rates dramatically...like your argument requires.

Matthews is 3rd in the league in 5 on 5 scoring rate the past two years behind only McDavid and Malkin. 144 games. His first two seasons. He's already one of the best 5 on 5 scorers in the league. And it's more likely his 2nd season is closer to who he is than his rookie season given how players tend to age.

Power play scoring is heavily dependent on systems and usage, and varies a lot from year to year. MacKinnon's PP scoring is all over the place from year to year. Matthews scored at a very high rate on the PP in 2016-17. It's not at all clear who will produce more on the PP in the future.
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
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Matthews already establishe

d himself as a playoff choker

How many points did Evgeni Kuznetsov have in the 2015-2016 playoffs? His 3rd year in the NHL and 2nd playoffs.

How many points did Getzlaf and Kopitar each have this year?

Have a look at each of the Sedin's career playoff stats. Have a look at Datsyuk's career playoff stats.

Here's a hint for the lazy: Good players have bad years. Calling a 20 year old a confirmed playoff choker is baseless, especially when he scored 4 goals in 6 games the year prior.

You know whats funny? You're comparing the number of years in the NHL. Mack isn't even two years older than Matthews.

I think it's funny that you made a statement that didn't actually have an argument in it.
 

JLo217

Registered User
Jul 22, 2009
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Reno, NV
How many points did Evgeni Kuznetsov have in the 2015-2016 playoffs? His 3rd year in the NHL and 2nd playoffs.

How many points did Getzlaf and Kopitar each have this year?

Have a look at each of the Sedin's career playoff stats. Have a look at Datsyuk's career playoff stats.

Here's a hint for the lazy: Good players have bad years. Calling a 20 year old a confirmed playoff choker is baseless, especially when he scored 4 goals in 6 games the year prior.



I think it's funny that you made a statement that didn't actually have an argument in it.
I’m not trying to argue anything. It’s a interesting point though. The number of years they’ve played but they’re so close in age.
 

Razz

Registered User
Jan 23, 2011
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Mississauga
As a Toronto fan living in Denver and Colorado solidly being my #2 team, both players are incredible. MacKinnon broke out this season, but up until that point he was "meh" at best. Matthews was elite from the first game and clearly had the better start. Hard to say who is better because Mac has 3 more seasons on Matthews, but it's a safe bet at this point to say that Matthews will have more goals, points and playoff experience than MacKinnon by the end of year 5.
 

Razz

Registered User
Jan 23, 2011
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Mississauga
Mackinnon easy. Matthews already established himself as a playoff choker

A 20 year old has established himself as a playoff choker eh? Most 20 year olds haven't even realized their dream of playing in the NHL let alone playoffs. There are many playoff runs for Matthews yet to come.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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Matthews is 3rd in the league in 5 on 5 scoring rate the past two years behind only McDavid and Malkin. 144 games. His first two seasons. He's already one of the best 5 on 5 scorers in the league. And it's more likely his 2nd season is closer to who he is than his rookie season given how players tend to age.

Power play scoring is heavily dependent on systems and usage, and varies a lot from year to year. MacKinnon's PP scoring is all over the place from year to year. Matthews scored at a very high rate on the PP in 2016-17. It's not at all clear who will produce more on the PP in the future.

And Matt Duchene was 5th in 5 on 5 production over twice as long a time frame. It still didn't make him as good as the guys who produced 15-25 points more than him in all situations :dunno:

And you're over-stating the bolded, there's very few players who could generate as many PP-opportunities as MacK or be as lethal with them even if you gave a guy 20+ minutes a night and left him out there for the entire PP. Finally replacing Army as our PP coach helped a lot, but MacK's evolution cannot be dismissed just because some folks had given up on the kid at the age of 21.
 
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