Series Discussion: (M1) Washington Capitals vs (WC1) Columbus Blue Jackets

[maacoshark]

The team doesn't seem to have any confidence in Holtby right now. Niskanen or Oshie (can't remember who) made a comment a few weeks back about knowing the "old" Holtby is in there some where and he's just working through some stuff. Ovechkin had this to say after Grubauer's play in Pittsburgh when they won the division: "The hot goalie is a hot goalie. They can win the game for us. I hope they’re going to play like that in the playoffs and we’re going to have a chance."

If Trotz plays Holtby in G1 and Holtby becomes Holt-three then he's going to have created an unnecessary fire in that locker room. Grubauer has earned the start.

And what if Grubauer starts and shits the bed? Fans will be asking why our franchise goalie is on the bench. Or what if Holtby let's in his 3 goals or more because of poor play in front if him?What if that happens to Grubauer? Its all about what ifs.
Whoever Trotz starts, if it doesn't work everyone will be 2nd guessing the decision.
Holtby struggled this season and still managed 34 wins. You guys act as if this is the first time a backup has had better numbers than the starter. Doesn't make the backup better. Did you see Darcy Kuempers numbers with the Kings before they traded him? Or what about the numbers Carter Hutton put up?
Holtby is our starter. Start him. If he shows signs of struggling make the switch. But don't wait too long.

 

[Ridley Simon]

This team CAN go far. The question is whether or not BT will make adjustments. Yes, the players must deliver. Some players will surge and some players won't. The coach has to adapt.

Tortorella will certainly throw a few curveballs during the series--he always does. He will also work the refs and the media. His playoff record isn't incredible but worth noting it's almost identical to Trotz's.

Caps in 6 (but 7 is very possible)

Well....”almost identical” save one very important difference (which makes them not even close to identical, at all, IMO)

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

And what if Grubauer starts and ****s the bed? Fans will be asking why our franchise goalie is on the bench. Or what if Holtby let's in his 3 goals or more because of poor play in front if him?What if that happens to Grubauer? Its all about what ifs.
Whoever Trotz starts, if it doesn't work everyone will be 2nd guessing the decision.
Holtby struggled this season and still managed 34 wins. You guys act as if this is the first time a backup has had better numbers than the starter. Doesn't make the backup better. Did you see Darcy Kuempers numbers with the Kings before they traded him? Or what about the numbers Carter Hutton put up?
Holtby is our starter. Start him. If he shows signs of struggling make the switch. But don't wait too long.

I think if that happens then people will say they started the goalie who earned the net all season. Holtby would be starting on name alone. He's ranged from average to terrible for an entire calendar year now -- he hasn't been a quality starter since last spring -- and he was absolutely terrible last postseason.

 

[HTFN]

And what if Grubauer starts and ****s the bed? Fans will be asking why our franchise goalie is on the bench. Or what if Holtby let's in his 3 goals or more because of poor play in front if him?What if that happens to Grubauer? Its all about what ifs.
Whoever Trotz starts, if it doesn't work everyone will be 2nd guessing the decision.
Holtby struggled this season and still managed 34 wins. You guys act as if this is the first time a backup has had better numbers than the starter. Doesn't make the backup better. Did you see Darcy Kuempers numbers with the Kings before they traded him? Or what about the numbers Carter Hutton put up?
Holtby is our starter. Start him. If he shows signs of struggling make the switch. But don't wait too long.

What if Holtby just does "okay", but Grubauer would have been a series winner?

What if you actually gave the net to the player with the better play and not the better paycheck? What if sometimes you have to earn a starting role as a backup against an entrenched talent, but that doesn't mean you're not a hell of a player? The list of goalies who did that exact thing is literally too long to bother with.

What if we were okay with challenging the status quo and pushing our players, instead of worrying about whether or not they felt comfortable and loved?

Grubauer is currently our best goaltender. Start him. If you have to switch them early, set the stage so that the "backup" didn't do well with his shot, but now the reigning king is back to take control of his crease/the series. It's more forgiving to both of them mentally/emotionally, since that's a thing we apparently have to tiptoe around now.

 

[g00n]

Well....”almost identical” save one very important difference (which makes them not even close to identical, at all, IMO)

Seriously, look at their records. Not their accomplishments or trophies, their W/L records. They're almost exact.

Torts also hasn't done much since that Cup, either. It was like 14 years ago. In fact it was arguably one of two good years he's had (.500 or better) out of 9 appearances, while Trotz has 5 years of .500 playoff hockey or better in 10 appearances.

Other than that Cup 14 years ago before the salary cap, Trotz is the better playoff coach.

 

[maacoshark]

I think if that happens then people will say they started the goalie who earned the net all season. Holtby would be starting on name alone. He's ranged from average to terrible for an entire calendar year now -- he hasn't been a quality starter since last spring -- and he was absolutely terrible last postseason.

Grubauer did not earn the net all season. He was brutal before they Xmas break. And we don't need to hear excuses how the team threw him under the bus. They played just as poorly for Holtby. You also have to remember that Grubauers numbers were helped by coming in relief in a few games. Pretty easy when you opponent isn't trying to really generate any offense because the game is already out of control. Grubauer played well down the stretch but did he really earn the starting job by beating bottom feeder teams. His last 7 starts he beat 1 playoff team. That was the Pens.

 

[maacoshark]

What if Holtby just does "okay", but Grubauer would have been a series winner?

What if you actually gave the net to the player with the better play and not the better paycheck? What if sometimes you have to earn a starting role as a backup against an entrenched talent, but that doesn't mean you're not a hell of a player? The list of goalies who did that exact thing is literally too long to bother with.

What if we were okay with challenging the status quo and pushing our players, instead of worrying about whether or not they felt comfortable and loved?

Grubauer is currently our best goaltender. Start him. If you have to switch them early, set the stage so that the "backup" didn't do well with his shot, but now the reigning king is back to take control of his crease/the series. It's more forgiving to both of them mentally/emotionally, since that's a thing we apparently have to tiptoe around now.

Like I said its all about what ifs. If whatever decision Trotz makes doesn't work there will be 2nd guessing.

 

[HTFN]

Like I said its all about what ifs. If whatever decision Trotz makes doesn't work there will be 2nd guessing.

Yeah, great. What if's exist across the board, you can't sit around paralyzed by them. The difference between mine and yours is that yours are based in guarding against failure instead of facilitating success. It's a very Trotz mentality.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

It comes down to how Trotz builds these lines. If he decides we're going to try and bang it out with them and play hockey circa 1985 then it's a 50/50 toss up and whatever team wins is leaving this series bloodied and bruised.

If he decides to utilize our speed and finesse then I think we match up well. CBJ ducked Pitt because their speed cuts through them like a hot knife in butter. We tried playing the heavy game the last two playoffs and had to fetch our jocks from the rafters after elimination because the Pens speed.

If we go into this and make it a slug fest we will not last long if we make it out. If build lines designed to maximize speed and create space, we're gravy. In terms of skilled players it's not even close, the scale is slammed our way.

 

[txpd]

Holts is their only chance and so they have to tighten up when he's shaky or allows an early softie. .

They have lost repeatedly in the past because their goaltender gave up an early soft goal. You neither can defend against a bad goal nor outscore them. This goes back to Varlamov vs Montreal. Holtby has had real issues the last couple of years with that.

Grubauer please

 

[txpd]

Well, you don't actually tell anyone he's on a short leash. It just happens.

Right. Just like we ALL knew that Theodore was on a short leash. You don't need to broadcast it for everyone to know. Holtby ran his leash out all the way when he lost his job to Grubauer. If he starts, he has no slack.

I still like Holtby, but I would rather use him as the savior than run him out there on thin ice. Grubauer has totally outplayed him for months. Run Holtby out there now and you are telling the team, "We are going to try this and hope it works"

 

[HTFN]

The stupidest thing you can do is create a situation where you pull Holtby early in a series, and then have to go back to him later because Grubauer's hot streak has officially worn off anyway. Set Grubauer up to succeed, and if he falters you get to send out a Holtby who is (hopefully) engaged and ready to take his net back for the rest of the playoffs, with a bit of an "I'll show you" attitude.

full disclosure though, Grubauer has struck me as a playoff goalie ever since his pre-draft Memorial Cup series. Wasn't the best goalie all year, but man did he become an unbeatable wall when it was demanded of him. I'm not saying that he can just pull that out in the NHL or anything, but I think it speaks well of his own winning mentality.

 

[maacoshark]

Yeah, great. What if's exist across the board, you can't sit around paralyzed by them. The difference between mine and yours is that yours are based in guarding against failure instead of facilitating success. It's a very Trotz mentality.

I'm saying it won't be an easy decision. I'd choose Holtby to start but that could be totally out to lunch.
How would starting Grubauer facilitate success. So what I'd he has put up decent numbers in the regular season with the majority of his starts against weaker competition. In his career he hasnt played against alot of playoff calibre teams. He has very little playoff experience and what little playing time he did get he didn't look very good.
Maybe Grubauer is the better option maybe he isn't. We will find out soon.

 

[HTFN]

I'm saying it won't be an easy decision. I'd choose Holtby to start but that could be totally out to lunch.
How would starting Grubauer facilitate success. So what I'd he has put up decent numbers in the regular season with the majority of his starts against weaker competition. In his career he hasnt played against alot of playoff calibre teams. He has very little playoff experience and what little playing time he did get he didn't look very good.
Maybe Grubauer is the better option maybe he isn't. We will find out soon.

That post isn't saying that starting Grubauer will facilitate success, necessarily. Not as a guarantee. It's saying that the philosophy behind making the decision is one of trying to facilitate success rather than guard against failure. Holtby might be the "safer" start thanks to name recognition, past playoff success, or supposed better play this year, but it's just that... "safe" (and debatable at that). Starting Grubauer says that they're recognizing his success thus far, and are willing to allow him room to see how far he can go. Basically, it's up to him. Starting Holtby doesn't give him that chance to be better, it re-establishes the status quo for everyone in the locker room.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Being there: Snapshot 9


Whereas arm chair statisticians read this data and proclaim that the Capitals are garbage I look at this data and proclaim there is no real significant correlation. Between all four quadrants there is virtually no difference in Cup winners beyond what you could call potential margin of error. 2 Cup winners from dominant, 2 from pretty good, 1 from mediocre, 0 from pretty bad, hardly a great case for this being the map to success. I saw another chart last week that had the Caps as SC Finalists because we had an aggregate of great numbers across 5v5, PP, and PK. There's a stat to make a case for every team.

I believe there is such thing as over analysis and I think when you break down everything to a numerical value you do risk only seeing the trees and not the forest. For every graph like this there is a counter explaining why our metrics of XYZ is near elite and rest assured that will be rolled out if we win.

 

[maacoshark]

That post isn't saying that starting Grubauer will facilitate success, necessarily. Not as a guarantee. It's saying that the philosophy behind making the decision is one of trying to facilitate success rather than guard against failure. Holtby might be the "safer" start thanks to name recognition, past playoff success, or supposed better play this year, but it's just that... "safe" (and debatable at that). Starting Grubauer says that they're recognizing his success thus far, and are willing to allow him room to see how far he can go. Basically, it's up to him. Starting Holtby doesn't give him that chance to be better, it re-establishes the status quo for everyone in the locker room.

This isn't about giving a player the chance to get better. Its about what gives us the best opportunity to win. This is the playoffs.
Starting Holtby is probably the safer play but I think it gives us the best chance to win. Just my opinion. Like I said maybe Grubauer is the better option.

 

[Langway]

Run Holtby out there now and you are telling the team, "We are going to try this and hope it works"

Sure but, more importantly, it gives Holtby the opportunity to take back the net from the outset without any drama beforehand. If it fails then there's a safety net behind him. If Grubauer is already reeling--and perhaps even the team as well--then it becomes an even more stressful situation for back-up Holtby to almost single-handedly save the day. That's probably not the best situation for a player whose confidence is only tested further by initially sitting. It's also in part about who would best handle sitting initially. I don't think Holtby would be wrecked if he sat, since he does seem to have a healthy team-first attitude, but it's also a tougher situation being the replacement and all that would occur in facilitating that. That's the tougher task in a lot of ways, particularly if it's not just a matter of a goalie botching easy chances.

I think the players do expect Grubauer in Game 1 based on his performance against PIT but it's a new season. It's not a clear-cut decision and I don't believe the players would necessarily play like they must protect Holtby due to a potential short leash. They need to tighten up regardless and not be loose/lazy in their own end. Do that and success regardless of who is in net becomes a lot easier.

 

[txpd]

Sure but, more importantly, it gives Holtby the opportunity to take back the net from the outset without any drama beforehand.

I guess we will have to disagree. Holtby being given back the net with the difference in quality of play in the 2nd half of the season is plenty of drama in unto itself.

 

[txpd]

I don't believe the players would necessarily play like they must protect Holtby due to a potential short leash.

The key word there is "necessarily". Yea, they might not tighten up. That surely means that they might. They wont for the other goalie.

Again we return to the word drama. I don't see how playing Holtby is a no drama move. He has clearly not won his net back

 

[Langway]

I guess we will have to disagree. Holtby being given back the net with the difference in quality of play in the 2nd half of the season is plenty of drama in unto itself.

That really depends on how he performs with the opportunity. Like I said, I do think the players expect Grubauer based on recent play and it's the easier decision to rationalize in terms of explanation. It's a lot more simple to say this guy has been better so we believe he gives us the better chance right now and that may be what happens. I think that's the slight favorite. Whereas the explanation for going with Holtby has much more to do with being more forward-thinking and giving him the opportunity due in large part to loyalty. That's not really that controversial if they were to sell it that way. They're kind of sticking their neck out there with either decision given how they've managed the timing of things but Grubauer would be the more conventional choice all things considered.

We have no idea how they would react. It could just as easily galvanize them, at least initially. They could also wind up having a much harder time with Grubauer's unpredictable rebound control ultimately.

 

[Bananas]

I'm saying it won't be an easy decision. I'd choose Holtby to start but that could be totally out to lunch.
How would starting Grubauer facilitate success. So what I'd he has put up decent numbers in the regular season with the majority of his starts against weaker competition. In his career he hasnt played against alot of playoff calibre teams. He has very little playoff experience and what little playing time he did get he didn't look very good.
Maybe Grubauer is the better option maybe he isn't. We will find out soon.

Most of your opinions are wrong including this one.

You start Grubauer because he’s been the better goalie this year. If it fails you don’t need to second guess it because you gave your team the best chance for success.

At some point that may change, and I don’t think the Caps should be afraid at all to ride Holtby later in the playoffs.

Grubauer has clearly earned the start G1R1 so you literally have to start him. There’s no seconding guessing something when the choice has already been made for you.

The performances of Grubauer and Holtby have absolutely determined this outcome.

 

[maacoshark]

Most of your opinions are wrong including this one.

You start Grubauer because he’s been the better goalie this year. If it fails you don’t need to second guess it because you gave your team the best chance for success.

At some point that may change, and I don’t think the Caps should be afraid at all to ride Holtby later in the playoffs.

Grubauer has clearly earned the start G1R1 so you literally have to start him. There’s no seconding guessing something when the choice has already been made for you.

The performances of Grubauer and Holtby have absolutely determined this outcome.

Well we will see what happens.

 

[Bananas]

Well we will see what happens.

Not if Holtby starts the first game. In that scenario what should have happened, what must have happened, will not have happened. You can never go back and undo that once it’s done.

The outcome is the thing that is not yet determined. So we can “wait and see” in that regard. Perhaps Trotz will make the wrong choice by starting Holtby and it will work out in our favor.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

One thing we can all agree on is that their damn cannon is super annoying.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Purely based on the eye test and gut feel, I'd go with Grubauer. He's been solid, and even great at times. Holtby still looks shaky even in the few games where he allowed fewer than 3 goals.