Series Discussion: (M1) Washington Capitals vs (WC1) Columbus Blue Jackets

Who will win?


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CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,386
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Doesn’t matter who is correct after the fact unless you’re the GM who screws up.

The market determines a player’s value at a point in time. If he’s not “worth it” to his former team you move on, simple enough. Caps aren’t in a position to move on because they have no real replacement that doesn’t torpedo their D Corp. if anything Orlov playing attriciously has highlighted 74’s value to this team even more. Not talking L vs R, but I consider Carlson and Orlov to be the two most talented Ds, the guys they’re most likely to anchor the top 2 pairs with in the future. If Orlov continues to underperform it makes Carlson all the more important IMO.

He’s performed like a top pair D for many years. He’s earned his career deal he’s going to get. 7.5 has been my max AAV for months, but I’d be happier with 7 per.

If they sign him for 8 years and he locks down the 1RD for the next 5 years (of an 8 year max) it’s a successful extension IMO. That’s what they should expect IMO and he should be able to comfortably deliver if he stays healthy.
 
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Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
21,816
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Almost Canada
in the locker room after game 4, someone (Isabelle?) kept asking for the players about him, and to a man they praised his play. Holtby was especially detailed in his comments. Worth watching, IMO.
 

Empty Goal Net

Tank Brigadier
Feb 13, 2010
4,252
3,288
Doesn’t matter who is correct after the fact unless you’re the GM who screws up.

The market determines a player’s value at a point in time. If he’s not “worth it” to his former team you move on, simple enough. Caps aren’t in a position to move on because they have no real replacement that doesn’t torpedo their D Corp. if anything Orlov playing attriciously has highlighted 74’s value to this team even more. Not talking L vs R, but I consider Carlson and Orlov to be the two most talented Ds, the guys they’re most likely to anchor the top 2 pairs with in the future. If Orlov continues to underperform it makes Carlson all the more important IMO.

He’s performed like a top pair D for many years. He’s earned his career deal he’s going to get. 7.5 has been my max AAV for months, but I’d be happier with 7 per.

If they sign him for 8 years and he locks down the 1RD for the next 5 years (of an 8 year max) it’s a successful extension IMO. That’s what they should expect IMO and he should be able to comfortably deliver if he stays healthy.

I think our positions are close. Carlson is outside the elite D group, but has shown flashes of belonging. Assuming he continues to perform near his 2017-18 level for several seasons, my concerns are the out-years, post whenever the drop-off occurs. He hasn't been injury-prone, which is a plus. $7m for 8 years sounds good for both parties.
 

Roshi

Registered User
Feb 7, 2013
1,986
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Finland
Nice to get this one after that terrible 3rd. Ill take it!

Kempny has been really good in this series.

Ovechkin gets bash. He played well today in my opinion. Bobrovsky took couple huge ones on him, on a normal day he would score 2-3 from those spots. Also does defence. Isnt very good at defence, but his there.

CBJ looked nervous at home. We need to take this down right away at Nationwide. We have also been more nervous at home.

What a comeback at OT. Where did that come from?
 
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Empty Goal Net

Tank Brigadier
Feb 13, 2010
4,252
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Watch NHL Tomight. Great stuff from Scotty Stevens on Carlson’s 2-on-1 play, on Ovie, and on Holtby. SS is such a technician.

Screw the limo and Pollin.

Just saw a bit of it ... "Holtby doesn't trust Carlson to take the pass away" on the goal today. After criticizing Carly for moving too close to the puck carrier on the prior 2-on-1 goal, which led to his flopping back and forth. I wonder if Ted or anyone with the Caps has any relationship with SS. Not that he's ready for the HC job, but he seems quite analytical and he's experienced alot as a player and a bit as BB's assistant.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,386
19,080
Call me crazy....but I think for this team to have a long run, it’s sets up for someone like Burakovsky to have a big impact later on.

Could be a major spark plug.

We will see

That's one of those dream scenarios that always seems to happen....for some other team that makes a late run.
 

Melkor

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
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Regarding Carlson almost nobody takes into account one fact: John has been earning way less money than what his role is supposed to give him the last 5-7 years. Hes been the #1 D here for the last 7 years I would say. His cap- hit is on a level of a good #4. So if he takes a pay cut this summer to stay here its as minor as they come. Imo they definitely can settle on a $7M cap hit but only if its 8 years. If I am BMac I would push as hard as I can to lower cap-hit right to the point where its 'do or die' but I dont think he gonna achieve much at that.
 

trick9

Registered User
Jun 2, 2013
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Well that’s where you’re wrong and the market will prove that out.

I don't think you got my point at all.

Will he get that? Of course. There are several desperate GM's that are more concerned in saving their job short-term than to consider the negative effects of that contract long-term.

Will he be worth that contract? I don't think so. That's why i wouldn't give him that.
 

maacoshark

Registered User
Jul 22, 2017
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He's had good years in the past, sure. Never to an extent where you consider giving him 7.5m AAV though. He's never been worth that in the past.
He probably isnt worth that now but he will likely get it. Not many UFA dmen available and none at his level. Mike Green is the next best guy available and he is a higher risk.
 

Empty Goal Net

Tank Brigadier
Feb 13, 2010
4,252
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It's nice in theory to talk about the market but let's be realistic. Facts about "the market" for this particular player:
-it's finite. How many teams have the need and the cap space? We're not talking about dozens of resource-rich buyers operating in an auction-like environment.
-not only is there a limited number of buyers, but the number of sellers is perhaps even smaller. How many comparable products are on the market? It's hard to set a "market price" under these circumstances.
-it's imperfect. What are you buying? Seven or eight years of the 2018 Playoff version, or something lesser? Of course, no warranties come with the purchase.
-buyer motivations vary. With all the unknowns and limitations at play, some GMs will act on well-considered analysis, while others may feel the pressure to acquire a "name" or make a splashy headline. Yes, these can be actual drivers that affect the market, albeit in a potentially irrational manner.
Call it a market all you want, but recognize that the market is flawed, extremely flawed, and the resulting price has to be viewed with those caveats in mind. As one buyer in this "market," GMBM will have to determine the best outcome for the Capitals. I fear the opportunity cost of going with anything close to $8m x8 will have an immediate adverse effect on the Caps roster, with more serious consequences in the outyears as Carlson's performance declines.
 

Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
18,126
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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
He's had good years in the past, sure. Never to an extent where you consider giving him 7.5m AAV though. He's never been worth that in the past.

It’s the timing of it all (hi, I’m Kirk Cousins).

He’s had similar years. Maybe not quite this this extent. But the “going rate” for players like him keeps “going up” so it fits.

He also hasn’t had to take so much ownership of a team before, at the same stage in his career. Caps lost a lot of blue line talent, someone had to step up big time....Carlson did. Previous great years were with players like Green, Alzner (pre-broken, etc etc, alongside him. He had Niskanen and Orlov, but they played together. No top partner, and no one in front of him on the PP
 

Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
18,126
9,066
Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
It's nice in theory to talk about the market but let's be realistic. Facts about "the market" for this particular player:
-it's finite. How many teams have the need and the cap space? We're not talking about dozens of resource-rich buyers operating in an auction-like environment.
-not only is there a limited number of buyers, but the number of sellers is perhaps even smaller. How many comparable products are on the market? It's hard to set a "market price" under these circumstances.
-it's imperfect. What are you buying? Seven or eight years of the 2018 Playoff version, or something lesser? Of course, no warranties come with the purchase.
-buyer motivations vary. With all the unknowns and limitations at play, some GMs will act on well-considered analysis, while others may feel the pressure to acquire a "name" or make a splashy headline. Yes, these can be actual drivers that affect the market, albeit in a potentially irrational manner.
Call it a market all you want, but recognize that the market is flawed, extremely flawed, and the resulting price has to be viewed with those caveats in mind. As one buyer in this "market," GMBM will have to determine the best outcome for the Capitals. I fear the opportunity cost of going with anything close to $8m x8 will have an immediate adverse effect on the Caps roster, with more serious consequences in the outyears as Carlson's performance declines.

The Devils are the “market”. His home state team. All it takes is one other team to create a bidding war. They have a HUGE need, lots of cap space, and are seemingly one top d-man away from making some noise.

Carlson is 28. Why are we saying he will suck at 36? He’s not known for his speed, and defensemen get “headier” as they age. He’s not a puck blocker like Alzner. He’s not someone that hits or gets hit a ton, like Orpik. I think his game will be very stable for the next 8 years.

And he’s pretty much money in the playoffs.

If you are ok at 6.5 or 7m a year, then you don’t walk away at 8m. 10m? Sure, see ya later. But 8m vs 6.5m is a Brett Connolly. Not a Lars Eller.

Edit — to add to this....I’m pretty sure the Caps see Carlson and Orlov as their 2 home grown foundational defensemen, for the next 5 years or so. They have a slew of young guys coming up to fill around them (Djoos, Bowey, Hobbs, Johansen, Siegenthaler, etc etc), and may resign guys like Kempny and or Jerabek. But Carlson and Orlov are the starting points.
 
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Lindemann

Registered User
Apr 7, 2017
1,154
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Thoughts from yesterday’s game

Orpik played his best game in a long time. He owned Vanek and everyone else on that line

Orlov is having his worst series as a cap

Stephenson is really impressing me

Vrana needs more ice time

Djoos is really holding his own

3rd line has been killing it. DSP played a hell of a game
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,433
14,292
We can trash Orlov for some of the weird crap that he does but the fact is he's one of the few guys who doesn't seem to mind taking chances under pressure. He wants to shoot and make a play. He may make the WRONG play sometimes but he doesn't freeze or cower, which has been a problem for this team late in the playoffs more than individual gaffes. Letting that shot rip in OT instead of "here you take it" is partly what won that game.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,433
14,292
I'm also glad to see Trotz has not totally neutered Tom Wilson this time around, and it's clearly paying off. He's had some bad games but he's also been a net positive force out there. When the goaltending and PKing are on track you can turn guys like Orpik and Wilson loose, and it has an effect on the other team. Plenty of BJs are just getting rid of the puck instead of making a good pass when they feel 44 or 43 bearing down on them.
 
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Empty Goal Net

Tank Brigadier
Feb 13, 2010
4,252
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The Devils are the “market”. His home state team. All it takes is one other team to create a bidding war. They have a HUGE need, lots of cap space, and are seemingly one top d-man away from making some noise.

Carlson is 28. Why are we saying he will suck at 36? He’s not known for his speed, and defensemen get “headier” as they age. He’s not a puck blocker like Alzner. He’s not someone that hits or gets hit a ton, like Orpik. I think his game will be very stable for the next 8 years.

And he’s pretty much money in the playoffs.

If you are ok at 6.5 or 7m a year, then you don’t walk away at 8m. 10m? Sure, see ya later. But 8m vs 6.5m is a Brett Connolly. Not a Lars Eller.

Edit — to add to this....I’m pretty sure the Caps see Carlson and Orlov as their 2 home grown foundational defensemen, for the next 5 years or so. They have a slew of young guys coming up to fill around them (Djoos, Bowey, Hobbs, Johansen, Siegenthaler, etc etc), and may resign guys like Kempny and or Jerabek. But Carlson and Orlov are the starting points.

Good points and I've said before that Carlson hasn't been injury-prone. If you consider that final year the current team can give - say NJD is at $8m x7 (=$56m), Caps can offer $7.5m x8 (=$60m). Carlson may be a fine player at age 36, but he might not be an $8m man. So I would expect the Caps to offer up that additional year and have a slightly lower AAV as a result.

I see the difference between $8m and $6.5m as something more than a $1.5m player. You can jettison Brett Connolly, but you still have a roster spot to fill, so you need to eliminate a player getting about $2.1-2.2m (and bring in someone close to the minimum) since your $1.5m is a net number.
 

Melkor

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
5,251
2,450
Auckland, New Zealand
Thoughts from yesterday’s game

Orpik played his best game in a long time. He owned Vanek and everyone else on that line

Orlov is having his worst series as a cap

Stephenson is really impressing me

Vrana needs more ice time

Djoos is really holding his own

3rd line has been killing it. DSP played a hell of a game
Orlov actually has been terrific last night. I mean sure hes had some awful games in this series but the timing for the line you wrote about him isnt particularly right. Agreed on Orpik. I think Trotz should sit Djoos for next series if they advance. Looks shaken all the time to me. Couple of times when he was unsure of what to do with the puck on his stick in his own end led to turnovers and a long ass possesion by Cbus.
 

Lindemann

Registered User
Apr 7, 2017
1,154
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Orlov actually has been terrific last night. I mean sure hes had some awful games in this series but the timing for the line you wrote about him isnt particularly right. Agreed on Orpik. I think Trotz should sit Djoos for next series if they advance. Looks shaken all the time to me. Couple of times when he was unsure of what to do with the puck on his stick in his own end led to turnovers and a long ass possesion by Cbus.

I think we need Djoos speed against Pitt (if we both make it)

Also Kuzy is an absolute gamer in the playoffs. He could be next captain after ovi retires. Wasn’t he Captain of his team in Russia and there was always articles how his team loved him?

Oshie/Niski/Carlson make sense too but they are all around the same age as Ovi
 
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