Lottery Projection and mock!

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by A-Fan, Jul 8, 2005.

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  1. A-Fan

    A-Fan Registered User

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    I assigned each team a number (1-30) and weighted it according to the rules and got this through a random number generator. Then I did a mock draft.

    1. Carolina - Sidney Crosby
    2. NY Rangers - Gilbert Brule
    3. Columbus - Jack Johnson
    4. Chicago - Benoit Pouliot
    5. Pittsburgh - Bobby Ryan
    6. Buffalo - Anze Kopitar
    7. Phoenix - Ryan O'Marra
    8. Edmonton - Guilluame Latendresse
    9. Minnesota - Marek Zagrapen
    10. Los Angeles - Carey Price
    11. Washington - Alex Bourret
    12. Boston - Jack Skille
    13. Florida - Marc Staal
    14. Anahiem - Luc Bourdon
    15. Calgary - Tuukka Rask
    16. NY Islanders - Nicklas Bergfors
    17. Nashville - Martin Hanzel
    18. Montreal - Jakub Kindel
    19. Atlanta - Ryan Stoa
    20. Dallas - Kenndal MacArdle
    21. St. Louis - Ryan Parent
    22. Toronto - Micheal Blunden
    23. New Jersey - Matt Lashoff
    24. Vancouver - Devin Setoguchi
    25. Detroit - Brian Lee
    26. Philadelphia - Jakub Vojta
    27. Colorado - Scott Jackson
    28. Ottawa - Andrew Cogliano
    29. San Jose - Dan Bertram
    30 Tampa Bay - Ondrej Pavelec
     
  2. Levitate

    Levitate Registered User

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    I tend to think the Rangers would take Johnson instead of Brule in the 2nd overall spot, but I certainly wouldn't complain about being in that #2 spot ;)
     
  3. Fozz

    Fozz Registered User

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    This order was done in a random way?

    INteresting, this looks a lot like what the order would have been if there had been a season... All the bottom teams have the good picks and most good teams have high picks.
     
  4. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    I was thinking the same thing.
     
  5. Howard35

    Howard35 Registered User

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    me2...

    btw: Wings picked brian lee would suprise me a ton. I dont see them taking someone like him, his path hes takin, its uncharacteristic of us
     
  6. mercury

    mercury Registered User

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    I was wondering, too. Which "rules" did he use? Probability-wise, it could not have been 1 ball, 1 team. Was it the 3 balls for 3 seasons with no playoffs weighted system? I have just read that some people are talking about a lottery with 30 balls to the worst team of 2003-04, 29 for the second, and so on. Statistically, that looks like what A-Fan did. Or, maybe, he just did the normal lottery for a normal year?
     
  7. Stiffler's Mom

    Stiffler's Mom Registered User

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    Rangers Love Brule

    Brule and Johnson both have a shot at number 2. We'll have to wait until draft day to see what happens. The fact is the Rangers love Brule.
     
  8. Anthony Mauro

    Anthony Mauro DraftBuzz Hockey

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    Why do they love him so much? I would think they would stay away from risky picks like Brule, Pouliot seeing as we have other first round unknowns like Jessiman and Korpikoski. Would they take Johnson before Brule? Where have you heard this?
     
  9. Levitate

    Levitate Registered User

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    exactly, what are your sources for "the rangers love brule"? The Rangers haven't said anything to the media about who they like in this draft yet as far as i know...if you know someone who knows someone, etc etc, that says that, then at least put that out there.
     
  10. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    BS. If you did this randomly, you certainly did not weight it according to the rules.

    Your order is as likely as winning the lottery grand prize three weeks in a row. Looks like you made it up or did not weight it correctly.
     
  11. flambers

    flambers Registered User

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    I bet who every has the #2 pick they will select Jack Johnson.
     
  12. Fozz

    Fozz Registered User

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    Even Chicago? I doubt it.
     
  13. Rakiet*

    Rakiet* Guest

    For a 1/30 mock draft the results ironically strongly point towards a weighted draft. Just skimming over it you can see the majority of the contender teams all have picks after #15
     
  14. mercury

    mercury Registered User

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    A-Fan did say it was weighted, but did not say how heavily. It certainly does not look it was the system based on the last 3 years.
     
  15. BobMarleyNYR

    BobMarleyNYR Registered User

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    I really disagree here, Sather/Malone have established a penchant for going after big, American NCAA players with good mobility in recent years (not necessarily in the draft). Brule has the character Sather loves, but no discipline, which Sather hates; he's dealt every player with discipline issues.

    With that said, the Rangers haven't taken a defenseman high since Baranka, can't remember the last in the first round. So Johnson might be the target. Tyutin really needs a partner.
     
  16. NYRangers

    NYRangers Registered User

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    Thats exactly what I was going to say.
     
  17. Jormungandr

    Jormungandr Registered User

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    As a Coyotes fan I would love this. Ryan O'Marra is the player I'm hoping the 'Yotes snatch up. But I have to agree with the others who say it looks more like it is weighted off of the '03-'04 season more than anything.
     
  18. Rowley Birkin

    Rowley Birkin Registered User

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    I would definately be happy with Kopitar.

    It looks like a good draft order to me anyway, well done
     
  19. HFNHL Canadiens

    HFNHL Canadiens Registered User

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    what site did u go to, to do a random draw?
     
  20. HFNHL Canadiens

    HFNHL Canadiens Registered User

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    i did an unweighted draw and got these results

    1.Dallas - Sidney Crosby
    2.Carolina - Jack Johnson
    3.Atlanta- Gilbert Brule
    4.Vancouver - Benoit Pouliot
    5.Columbus - Bobby Ryan
    6.Toronto - Anze Kopitar
    7.Edmonton - Alex Bourret
    8.New Jersey - Jack Skille
    9.Calgary - Carey Price
    10.Detroit - Marc Staal
    11.NYR - Luc Bourdon
    12.Anaheim - Ryan Parent
    13.Chicago - Guilamme Latendresse
    14.Ottawa - Kendal MacArdle
    15.NYI - Marek Zagrapan
    16.Tampa Bay - Martin Hanzal
    17.Pittsburgh - Ryan O'Marra
    18.San Jose - Niclas Berfors
    19.Buffalo - Brendan Mikkelson
    20.Philadelphia - Ryan Stoa
    21.St.Louis - Brian Lee
    22.Colorado - Jakub Kindl
    23.Boston - Devin Setoguchi
    24.Phoenix - Dan Bertram
    25.Montreal - Matt Lashoff
    26.Nashville - Radek Smolenak
    27.Minnesota - Andrew Cogliano
    28.Washington - Jakub Vojta
    29.Florida - Chris Durrand
    30.LA - Ondrej Pavelec
     
  21. Onion Boy

    Onion Boy Registered User

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    If they Rangers are lucky enough to be in that position, you can bet they'll take either Johnson, Kopitar, Ryan, or maybe even Pouliot before they take Brule. The Rangers need size up front and also need a legit no.1 defense prospect.
     
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