Lets talk about William Nylander.

[Babcocks Marner]

Well, just at a guess I'd say the going rate for a 60 point first liner is about what's been mentioned here.

I have a 99% agreement rate with your posts. This is not one of them. 10mil is the average here.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I have a 99% agreement rate with your posts. This is not one of them. 10mil is the average here.

What? That's absurd.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

What? That's absurd.

okay okay 100%...... thought this was the Matthews thread.

 

[Nithoniniel]

okay okay 100%...... thought this was the Matthews thread.

Haha yeah that makes much more sense.

 

[thunder16]

Why pay a premium for a guy who will not top 25 goals and is a total non factor in the playoffs? Leafs should be looking to unload him for a defenseman.

Soft, one trick ponies, who play on the perimeter are not that hard to find.

I wonder if we could get 12 point d-man Adam Larsson for him from the oilers?

 

[mapleleaf979]

I don't understand this point. Nylander has a three year sample where he has in various usage put up 60ish points with terrific underlying numbers as an elite transition player. How has he not proven something? What has Marner proven that Willy hasn't?

Marner has proven his compete level is better. He has proven he can run the PP from the half wall. He proved he can elevate who ever he is on the ice with. Nylander has not proven any of this. Marner is far more valuble to the Leafs team all based on one thing. His compete level= consistency= trust from coach.

Nylander checks in and out mentally at any given time. Its so noticeable because Nylander is the most skilled Maple Leaf player and could dominate the game at any moment if he wanted too. He wont be a C on this team because of this. When Nylander was moved off the #1 line earlier in the year, his ambition and compete level dropped off even more. Im still not convinced he plays here long term.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Marner has proven his compete level is better.

You can't prove something that is subjective.

He has proven he can run the PP from the half wall.

You mean like Willy did better than most of NHL last year? You're judging Marner based on playing on the best PP unit in the league, and Nylander based on playing on one that isn't functioning at all.

He proved he can elevate who ever he is on the ice with.

That's interesting, because this is actually true of Nylander. When looking at statistical effect on linemates over their two years, Nylander elevates his line more than anyone on the team.

Its so noticeable because Nylander is the most skilled Maple Leaf player and could dominate the game at any moment if he wanted too.

It's noticeable because you are forcing a nonsensical agenda. There's pretty much not a player in the league who can dominate at a whim. Saying that about Nylander is just a way to set the bar so high that you can disparage him for not reaching it. Which is all kinds of sad.

 

[Walshy7]

Marner has proven his compete level is better. He has proven he can run the PP from the half wall. He proved he can elevate who ever he is on the ice with. Nylander has not proven any of this. Marner is far more valuble to the Leafs team all based on one thing. His compete level= consistency= trust from coach.

Nylander checks in and out mentally at any given time. Its so noticeable because Nylander is the most skilled Maple Leaf player and could dominate the game at any moment if he wanted too. He wont be a C on this team because of this. When Nylander was moved off the #1 line earlier in the year, his ambition and compete level dropped off even more. Im still not convinced he plays here long term.

Marner and his 26 pp points this year and Nylander and his 26 pp points last year proves Marner can run a PP? that is really weird observation. JVR is on a hot streak, and a lot of marners points are really just simple passes to JVR in the slot

edit: im pretty sure Nylander holds the record for PP points by a rookie for the leaf organization.

 

[Morgs]

People slagging Nylander’s points are so out to lunch that it makes me laugh.

It may be a blessing in disguise contract wise but the only reason Nylander(and Matthews) haven’t exploded offensively this year is because of their PP performance. Nylander has been great at producing at even strength.

Hopefully the leafs lock him up long term at a good deal because he’s ready to explode.

This, so much this.

2016-17 - 81 GP

Even strength p60 - 1.83 (33 points)
Powerplay p60 - 8.48 (27 points)

2017-18 - 76GP

Even strength p60 - 2.38 (43 points)
Powerplay p60 - 3.58 (9 points)

Yeah his oiSH% might be a little high 5v5 this season, but it definitely is correcting from last year. It's also making up for the fact his PP unit can't catch a break. If he puts it together though, watch out.

 

[MattySnipes]

This, so much this.

2016-17 - 81 GP

Even strength p60 - 1.83 (33 points)
Powerplay p60 - 8.48 (27 points)

2017-18 - 76GP

Even strength p60 - 2.38 (43 points)
Powerplay p60 - 3.58 (9 points)

Yeah his oiSH% might be a little high 5v5 this season, but it definitely is correcting from last year. It's also making up for the fact his PP unit can't catch a break. If he puts it together though, watch out.

Yessir. I'm on board with the folks who want Nylander signed long-term.

$6.25 over 8 years - git 'er done Lou.

 

[Morgs]

Yessir. I'm on board with the folks who want Nylander signed long-term.

$6.25 over 8 years - git 'er done Lou.

AS long as it's 7-8 years, I care very little about the AAV. The one thing I know we can depend on our management for is getting the right price for our players.

 

[Menzinger]

There is next to zero risk locking any of the big three up for 8 years.

None of them are riding unsustainable statistics - all tangible signs point to improvement as they collectively enter their prime years

 

[MyBudJT]

Yeah, pretty much. More if they are UFA. That seem to be the rate for more recent contracts.

I disagree, going rates for recent 60P UFAs haven't been much higher than 6 mil

Josh Bailey just signed 6 yrs x 5 mil - UFA
Jonathan Marcheseault just signed at 6 yrs x 5 mil - UFA
Brad Marchand signed at 8 yrs x 6.25 mil - UFA
Kyle Turris signed at 6 yrs x 6 mil - UFA
Bryan Little signed at 6yrs x 5.3 mil - UFA
TJ Oshie signed at 8 yrs x 5.75mil - UFA

Most of these guys are well above 20G scorers too...

Good RFA comparables for Nylander are T Johnson, Schwartz, Huberdeau, Drouin, etc.

 

[meefer]

I don't mind an 8 year contract at a bargain.

But giving contracts on what you hope a player becomes, and not what they've proven to be, is very risky business.

How much would you pay a 60 point first liner and at what term? That's all he's proven to be thus far.

Don't get me wrong... I'm a huge fan of Nylander. I hope he becomes something special. But as of right now... he's a 60 point first liner.

Please accept that I'm not challenging you, but I'm curious as to your views regarding the signing of Matthews. Many (not saying you) are quoting 10/10.5/11 M/yr for Auston. To date, I love his potential and appreciate what he has done so far, but he has not proven to be a player worth those figures. Would you make an exception in Matty's case, as in a 'very risky business' scenario, or is it just Nylander with whom your concerns lie?

 

[MattySnipes]

Category	16-17	17-18
GP	81	76
TOI (minutes)	1297	1271
Points	61 (22G, 39A)	54 (17G, 37A)
PP Points	26 (9G, 17A)	9 (4G, 5A)
Shots	205	168
S%	10.73	10.12
iCF	363	345
iSCF	201	212
iHDCF	55	73
Penalties Drawn	6	17
Giveaways	30	51
Takeaways	59	64
FO%	40.16*	50.59
O-Zone FO	506	482
N-Zone FO	404	421
D-Zone FO	276	382
O-Zone FO%	64.71%	55.79%
HDCF%	317	322
HDGF	40	42
HDGA	23	29
HDGF%	63.49	59.15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Nylander is having a really good year despite their PP unit struggling. Last year he was primarily a winger with Matty, but with injuries this year they have given Nylander a solid stretch of games where he's gotten a chance to further hone his C responsibilities. I have no doubt they are grooming him for a centre position, look at the increase in defensive zone FO from last year to this year, his FO% has also gone up. If you add up the ~17 points missing from last years PP production to this year he is comfortably at 71 points with 6 more games to play.

IMO, i'd lock him up long-term - don't even entertain the idea of a bridge deal.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Please accept that I'm not challenging you, but I'm curious as to your views regarding the signing of Matthews. Many (not saying you) are quoting 10/10.5/11 M/yr for Auston. To date, I love his potential and appreciate what he has done so far, but he has not proven to be a player worth those figures. Would you make an exception in Matty's case, as in a 'very risky business' scenario, or is it just Nylander with whom your concerns lie?

40 goals in a rookie year is remarkably special. How many players have done that in the past 20 years? And since he was on pace for actually improving those numbers year 2, makes it even more special. So I think there is a very good chance that Matthews is our future. Give him whatever it takes.

As for Nylander... I'm still a fan. But while 60 points in the first two seasons is great, it's just not special. I don't think it warrants an 8 year term or $50 million. Look what happened with Zaitsev. There just wasn't a big enough sample size to offer that contract, and it looks like it might bite us in the ass. Or maybe he'll improve. I don't know. I just don't like contracts that are based on what you hope someone will become. Especially at 8 years.

 

[Menzinger]

A 60 point rookie season is pretty “special” any way you look at it.

That’s an impressive debut if you were a top 2 pick. 60 points for a sophomore is also incredibly impressive.

That’s exactly the type of player you want to lock up at a cheapish rate before they start to ask for 8+ million.

If they could actually get that many UFA years for a caphit of just 6.5 million (8 years at 50 mil) Leafs would in a fantastic position. I suspect his agent wouldn’t want to go longer than 6 years for that caphit though

 

[MattySnipes]

40 goals in a rookie year is remarkably special. How many players have done that in the past 20 years? And since he was on pace for actually improving those numbers year 2, makes it even more special. So I think there is a very good chance that Matthews is our future. Give him whatever it takes.

As for Nylander... I'm still a fan. But while 60 points in the first two seasons is great, it's just not special. I don't think it warrants an 8 year term or $50 million. Look what happened with Zaitsev. There just wasn't a big enough sample size to offer that contract, and it looks like it might bite us in the ass. Or maybe he'll improve. I don't know. I just don't like contracts that are based on what you hope someone will become. Especially at 8 years.

Do you value goals over points? Matty already has an excellent overall game. Offensively and defensively. His defensive game will only get better. No question he's getting signed long-term at $10m +

I think Ehlers and Pastrnak are great comparables for Nylander. Very similar stats the past few years.

Pastrnak (246GP) is at 0.8 PPG from 2014-2018
Nylander (179GP ) is at 0.72 PPG from 2015-2018
Ehlers (229GP) is at 0.69 PPG from 2015-2018

Look at the difference in GP from Pastrnak and Ehlers to Nylander. Pastrnak also has accumulated over 44 points on the PP the past two years. On top, Nylander has produced all this primarily as a winger, depending on who you ask you can argue that centres are usually more proficient at producing due to being able to see the ice better.

Anything can happen, but I feel Nylander can definitely be a 70+ point 2C for the Leafs going forward. Huge, huge fan of the way he plays and his skillset. Superb.

 

[MyBudJT]

Do you value goals over points? Matty already has an excellent overall game. Offensively and defensively. His defensive game will only get better. No question he's getting signed long-term at $10m +

I think Ehlers and Pastrnak are great comparables for Nylander. Very similar stats the past few years.

Pastrnak (246GP) is at 0.8 PPG from 2014-2018
Nylander (179GP ) is at 0.72 PPG from 2015-2018
Ehlers (229GP) is at 0.69 PPG from 2015-2018

Look at the difference in GP from Pastrnak and Ehlers to Nylander. Pastrnak also has accumulated over 44 points on the PP the past two years. On top, Nylander has produced all this primarily as a winger, depending on who you ask you can argue that centres are usually more proficient at producing due to being able to see the ice better.

Anything can happen, but I feel Nylander can definitely be a 70+ point 2C for the Leafs going forward. Huge, huge fan of the way he plays and his skillset. Superb.

This is a little bit of stats cherry-picking. Pastrnak and Ehlers started in the NHL at younger ages, and thus of course will produce less.
If you look at the last two seasons:

Pastrnak: 149GP, is at 0.96 PPG and scored 64 goals
Ehlers: 157GP, is at 0.76 PPG and scored 53 goals
Nylander: 157GP, is at 0.73 PPG and scored 39 goals

Nylander should not be in the same conversation as Pastrnak.
Ehlers and Nylander are the same caliber, but I'd argue the extra scoring ability Ehlers has shown translates a slightly larger contract.

Nylander should not get paid more than 6 million.

 

[MyBudJT]

40 goals in a rookie year is remarkably special. How many players have done that in the past 20 years? And since he was on pace for actually improving those numbers year 2, makes it even more special. So I think there is a very good chance that Matthews is our future. Give him whatever it takes.

As for Nylander... I'm still a fan. But while 60 points in the first two seasons is great, it's just not special. I don't think it warrants an 8 year term or $50 million. Look what happened with Zaitsev. There just wasn't a big enough sample size to offer that contract, and it looks like it might bite us in the ass. Or maybe he'll improve. I don't know. I just don't like contracts that are based on what you hope someone will become. Especially at 8 years.

You make a good point. Some players can handle 8 year big money contracts and some can't. I wonder if a 8 year large contract could negatively impact Nylander. I mean, his game-in-game-out work ethic has been questioned in the past, so maybe if he has the Money in the bank, he'll stop working as hard?

This isn't a crticism of Nylander. He's a good player, but its possible that a large contract could negatively effect his work ethic / drive to improve. I'd have similar concerns with Marner TBH, but Matthews has that extra special thing about him that it doesn't concern me.

 

[MattySnipes]

This is a little bit of stats cherry-picking. Pastrnak and Ehlers started in the NHL at younger ages, and thus of course will produce less.
If you look at the last two seasons:

Pastrnak: 149GP, is at 0.96 PPG and scored 64 goals
Ehlers: 157GP, is at 0.76 PPG and scored 53 goals
Nylander: 157GP, is at 0.73 PPG and scored 39 goals

Nylander should not be in the same conversation as Pastrnak.
Ehlers and Nylander are the same caliber, but I'd argue the extra scoring ability Ehlers has shown translates a slightly larger contract.

Nylander should not get paid more than 6 million.

I see what you're saying - you're leveling the playing field with stats that fall in line with similar GP. Which is fine. No problem.

The stats I provided are their career numbers since they came in to the league. All 3 were drafted in the same 2004 draft, with Pasta and Ehlers having more GP. Nylander and Ehlers both spent 2014 in the minors developing, while Pastrnak was in the NHL playing majority of his TOI with (Krejci, Lucic, and Kelly).

You make some good points for sure, and if you browse through my post history you will see that I feel Nylander deserves between $6m - $6.25m on an 8 year deal.

Cap Hit:

Pastrnak @ 6.66
Ehlers @ 6
Nylander at what I mentioned seems about right.

 

[pengdeng12]

Deleted

 

[pengdeng12]

This is a little bit of stats cherry-picking. Pastrnak and Ehlers started in the NHL at younger ages, and thus of course will produce less.
If you look at the last two seasons:

Pastrnak: 149GP, is at 0.96 PPG and scored 64 goals
Ehlers: 157GP, is at 0.76 PPG and scored 53 goals
Nylander: 157GP, is at 0.73 PPG and scored 39 goals

Nylander should not be in the same conversation as Pastrnak.
Ehlers and Nylander are the same caliber, but I'd argue the extra scoring ability Ehlers has shown translates a slightly larger contract.

Nylander should not get paid more than 6 million.

If you want to level the playing field then why don't you also use linemates (plays with Bergy + Marchand), ice time and PP time as well?

Also comparing from 2015-2018 is also a disadvantage to nylander? Pasta had 1 year of experience heading into his 2015-2016. He was better prepared for it. I can argue it from that angle as well

 

[Cor]

Pasta, Ehlers and Willy are comparable players. Arguing which one is the best is largely useless.

Nylander should fall in the 6-6.5 range, as should Marner. Matthews could be in the Eichel range simply due to his injuries, but I don’t think we’re looking at more than 11 on the high side.

 

[Community]

Resign? I don't think he's going to leave his job as an NHL player at only 21/22 years old.

Seriously though, this thread is ridiculous. Of course he will be re-signing, he's an RFA.


When the Leafs suck, we get a lot of troll posts. When the Leafs are good, we get so many ridiculous threads asking if the virtually impossible is going to happen.