Speculation: Lets assume the Wings pick 6th

Pavels Dog

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Don't know if this is horrible or not. Trying to see if we could land Dahlin without winning the lottery. Would whoever lands the first pick consider trading it to us for our 2 first rounders(considering we land a 1st for Green) and say our later 2nd for 1st overall?
Just trying to see if you all think a AZ team that has holes all over consider something like that.

To Det: 1st overall

To AZ: 7th overall, 25th overall (Green Trade, Washington Maybe?) And one of our second rounders.

Overpayment orrrrr??

Or does that pick(1OA) not get traded plan and simple???
The thing is, a 1st overall almost never gets traded. Only way I see it is in a scenario where we land 2nd or 3rd overall and the team that lands 1st feels they can live without Dahlin and takes our top 3 pick along with our late 1st and maybe another piece to let us get 1st OA. I just don't know exactly what team that would be. Ottawa maybe? With Karlsson and Chabot they might feel a bigger need for a high-end forward.

But realistically, no. Dahlin is too good to pass up on.
 
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HisNoodliness

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The thing is, a 1st overall almost never gets traded. Only way I see it is in a scenario where we land 2nd or 3rd overall and the team that lands 1st feels they can live without Dahlin and takes our top 3 pick along with our late 1st and maybe another piece to let us get 1st OA. I just don't know exactly what team that would be. Ottawa maybe? With Karlsson and Chabot they might feel a bigger need for a high-end forward.

But realistically, no. Dahlin is too good to pass up on.

Honestly I don't see any way 1st OA gets traded but I guess I can imagine it if we have 2nd OA and Ottawa or someone that's particularly strong at D has 1st OA. We could trade them 2nd OA + Svechnikov + Green first for 1st OA and then they could take Svechnikov and unite the brothers while we get Dahlin. I still don't even know if that would do it, but the brothers angle could be strong.
 
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The Zetterberg Era

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The thing is, a 1st overall almost never gets traded. Only way I see it is in a scenario where we land 2nd or 3rd overall and the team that lands 1st feels they can live without Dahlin and takes our top 3 pick along with our late 1st and maybe another piece to let us get 1st OA. I just don't know exactly what team that would be. Ottawa maybe? With Karlsson and Chabot they might feel a bigger need for a high-end forward.

But realistically, no. Dahlin is too good to pass up on.

Nobody is passing on Dahlin and he is the kind of player you don't move that pick if you get the #1.

I know a lot of people are upset and not watching, but turn on the Olympics he is going to be one of the best players there already as a draft eligible player.

If we win the lottery and get Dahlin our rebuild is going to be a very fast one.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
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Top 5 picks in general rarely ever get moved. Especially after the draft order is set. IMO both Dahlin and Svech are a cut above, so I would bet both the #1 and #2 will be untouchable this year. Watch what Svech does the rest of the way.
 
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jkutswings

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If we win the lottery and get Dahlin our rebuild is going to be a very fast one.
Go easy.

Even if Dahlin is the next Bobby Orr, the Wings still need another center (besides Rasmussen), another top 4 defenseman (besides Hronek), and possibly another scoring forward (besides Mantha and AA).

By all indications, Dahlin would be an enormous benefit, but even with him, this will take at least a few more years before there's any chance to contend again.
 

Henkka

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Go easy.

Even if Dahlin is the next Bobby Orr, the Wings still need another center (besides Rasmussen), another top 4 defenseman (besides Hronek), and possibly another scoring forward (besides Mantha and AA).

Those will be got from 2019 and 2020 drafts. And Cholowski could be TOP4.
 

Whoshattenkirkshoes

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Those will be got from 2019 and 2020 drafts. And Cholowski could be TOP4.
Go easy.

Even if Dahlin is the next Bobby Orr, the Wings still need another center (besides Rasmussen), another top 4 defenseman (besides Hronek), and possibly another scoring forward (besides Mantha and AA).

By all indications, Dahlin would be an enormous benefit, but even with him, this will take at least a few more years before there's any chance to contend again.
We need a scoring forward and a high end defenseman
 

jkutswings

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Those will be got from 2019 and 2020 drafts. And Cholowski could be TOP4.
You mean they MIGHT.

All of this hangs on the assumption that the current scouting staff ends up hitting on these players. We still don't know if any of the current prospects will even stick in the NHL, let alone be impactful.

Early returns look good, but statistically, it's likely to factor in a bust here and there. So I'm adding in another 1-2 years, even if the next draft class or two look ahead of schedule once selected by Detroit, because it's just not probable that every one of their moves (even home runs on paper) will be even satisfactory. So maybe between Rasmussen, Hronek, and Cholowski, 2 of the 3 are good, but one still needs replacing, or something like that. NOBODY hits on ALL their early picks.
 

Whoshattenkirkshoes

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Top 5 picks in general rarely ever get moved. Especially after the draft order is set. IMO both Dahlin and Svech are a cut above, so I would bet both the #1 and #2 will be untouchable this year. Watch what Svech does the rest of the way.
No one els is scared of drafting Russian Andrei Svechnikov? Especially after we have seen how is brother has busted?
 

Henkka

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No one els is scared of drafting Russian Andrei Svechnikov? Especially after we have seen how is brother has busted?

When Mario's big brother Alain Lemieux busted, were the Pengunis worried about Mario's busting?

Evgeny is just having tough year. Far from busting. One bad year is never busting.
 

Pavels Dog

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So maybe between Rasmussen, Hronek, and Cholowski, 2 of the 3 are good, but one still needs replacing, or something like that. NOBODY hits on ALL their early picks.
We don't hit on all of our early picks, not by a long shot. Going further back, Kindl, Smith and McCollum were terrible. Sheahan mediocre. Recently Svechnikov might end up in the disappointing category, and I don't know about Givani Smith. And other than maybe Larkin it's been a while since we hit a homerun in the draft. Statistically, we might be due, especially on the defensive side. Rasmussen turning into a #2-3C and Hronek/Cholowski both becoming top 4D is not some crazy optimistic result. If we can find our answer to the #1D problem in this draft we're looking pretty good.
 

Redder Winger

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No one els is scared of drafting Russian Andrei Svechnikov? Especially after we have seen how is brother has busted?

I'm more scared of him because of his performance in the WJC where his skating looked very average (much like his brother's).
If he doesn't develop a quicker stride some NHL team is going to be very sad they drafted him at 2 or 3 overall.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
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I'm more scared of him because of his performance in the WJC where his skating looked very average (much like his brother's).
If he doesn't develop a quicker stride some NHL team is going to be very sad they drafted him at 2 or 3 overall.

He skates way better than his brother. His skating is a non-issue. Look at the clip I posted above, or read any scouting report on him.
 

Flowah

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And other than maybe Larkin it's been a while since we hit a homerun in the draft. Statistically, we might be due, especially on the defensive side. .
We are not due, even if statistics worked that way. Previous results do not impact future results. Just because you flip heads 10 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip tails.

But even if it did, "homerun" picks occur so infrequently, especially where we've been picking, that we are not due. The reason so many homerun defensemen seem to be found in later rounds is because there are 6 rounds after the 1st round and 30 (now 31) picks for each one. Yes. Out of 180 picks there might be 2-3 homerun defensemen. You have a 10% chance at best of hitting on them assuming 6 picks. That also assumes you use all your picks on defensemen and there are actually 3 homerun defensemen and they aren't picked up by any of the other 29 teams before you can get to them. Which is assuming a lot.

I don't think people get how stacked against you it is to find top flight players later in the draft. It's essentially all luck.
 

Flowah

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Definitely.

Disagree. Look at Tampa Bay + Nashville.
People said the same about the Wings a few years ago. "Datsyuk! Zetterberg! Kronwall! Now look at those talented youngsters in GR like Tatar and Nyquist!" What's our drafting doing now? I think the Wings rode a period of luck that found them 2 of the best forwards to ever play into a reputation for excellent drafting that hasn't held up. We've found mostly good/serviceable players, and one great (maybe) player in Larkin.

In the long term, I think the same will be true of Tampa and Nashville. Yes, they've drafted very well. I don't think it's sustainable. I think it was mostly luck.

If I give them a sustainable edge anywhere it's that both teams also appear to have more nimble, GMs who get the cap era. Winning that Forsberg trade, holy moly. Somehow getting back a younger PK Subban in exchange for an aging Weber and his monster contract. Wow. And those contracts Yzerman signed his big guys to, pretty team friendly.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
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People said the same about the Wings a few years ago. "Datsyuk! Zetterberg! Kronwall! Now look at those talented youngsters in GR like Tatar and Nyquist!" What's our drafting doing now? I think the Wings rode a period of luck that found them 2 of the best forwards to ever play into a reputation for excellent drafting that hasn't held up.

In the long term, I think the same will be true of Tampa and Nashville. Yes, they've drafted very well. I don't think it's sustainable. I think it was mostly luck.

It's crazy what can happen when complacency sets in. Doesn't mean the Wings didn't have a clear advantage for awhile with their scouting. They were cleaning up and covering more ground in Europe, and it showed.

Tampa is cleaning up at forward, and Nashville has been cleaning up at defenseman. At what point is it no longer a fluke that you are better at everyone else at evaluating those positions?

Assuming it's all luck assumes that every team has the same ability to evaluate players, which is something I could never subscribe to.
 

Pavels Dog

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We are not due, even if statistics worked that way. Previous results do not impact future results. Just because you flip heads 10 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip tails.

But even if it did, "homerun" picks occur so infrequently, especially where we've been picking, that we are not due. The reason so many homerun defensemen seem to be found in later rounds is because there are 6 rounds after the 1st round and 30 (now 31) picks for each one. Yes. Out of 180 picks there might be 2-3 homerun defensemen. You have a 10% chance at best of hitting on them assuming 6 picks. That also assumes you use all your picks on defensemen and there are actually 3 homerun defensemen and they aren't picked up by any of the other 29 teams before you can get to them. Which is assuming a lot.

I don't think people get how stacked against you it is to find top flight players later in the draft. It's essentially all luck.
I didn't mean necessarily a home run late in the draft, it can happen in the 1st round too. A 10-30 pick that exceeds expectations, somewhat like Larkin. The 2nd round also tends to have quite a few good players. Picking up an extra 1st and/or more 2nd round picks increases our odds at striking a homerun outside of the very top of the draft. That's the kind of luck we could really use.
 

Redder Winger

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He skates way better than his brother. His skating is a non-issue. Look at the clip I posted above, or read any scouting report on him.

I know skating when I see it. He might not be a bad skater. But he's not the kind of player whose skating is big advantage either.

I think that lack of elite level skating takes him down a notch at the NHL level.
 

Flowah

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It's crazy what can happen when complacency sets in. Doesn't mean the Wings didn't have a clear advantage for awhile with their scouting. They were cleaning up and covering more ground in Europe, and it showed.

Tampa is cleaning up at forward, and Nashville has been cleaning up at defenseman. At what point is it no longer a fluke that you are better at everyone else at evaluating those positions?

Assuming it's all luck assumes that every team has the same ability to evaluate players, which is something I could never subscribe to.
Most of the players people think of when they think of good Tampa players were drafted within a 3 year time span from 08-11. They also include first overall like Stamkos and 2nd overall like Hedman. I'm not really going to give a team credit for drafting a winner with the top 2 picks in a draft. Yes, they've hit on some really good players outside of them but we'll see if in a couple years they're still finding Kucherovs. outside the 1st round. Again, Wings also crushed it for a few years. Not anymore.

I don't think all teams are equally good at evaluating players but I do think there's not enough difference between scouting staffs to explain the difference between teams at the bottom and teams at the top. Moreover I think teams have different priorities and strategies. If you draft for size over speed/skill, even if you draft "well" by correctly identifying the players you want you're going to be behind the curve.
 

Redder Winger

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People said the same about the Wings a few years ago. "Datsyuk! Zetterberg! Kronwall! Now look at those talented youngsters in GR like Tatar and Nyquist!" What's our drafting doing now? I think the Wings rode a period of luck that found them 2 of the best forwards to ever play into a reputation for excellent drafting that hasn't held up. We've found mostly good/serviceable players, and one great (maybe) player in Larkin.

In the long term, I think the same will be true of Tampa and Nashville. Yes, they've drafted very well. I don't think it's sustainable. I think it was mostly luck.

If I give them a sustainable edge anywhere it's that both teams also appear to have more nimble, GMs who get the cap era. Winning that Forsberg trade, holy moly. Somehow getting back a younger PK Subban in exchange for an aging Weber and his monster contract. Wow. And those contracts Yzerman signed his big guys to, pretty team friendly.

The Red Wings had:
Fischer, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Hudler, Filppula, Fleischmann, Ericsson, Kopecky, Grigorenko -- in a five year period.


That's the core of a very good hockey team right there. Drafted in five years.
Was luck involved? Of course. But it's not fair to Holland and his scouts to pretend it was all luck.

I don't think Nashville's repeated draft success can be called luck at this point.

As far as Stevie, he pulled a page out of vintage Ken Holland's playbook. He recognized a soft area in the market and he drafted there.
When everyone was avoiding Russians, he doubled down.

Kucherov. Namestnikov. Vasilevsky.
Last year he took Lipanov and Volkov back

Did he do the same with Brayden Point? Drafting an undersized center?

While Tyler Wright talks about "setting trends" and stuff, Yzerman says stuff like:
"We believe he fits into the style of play that we play."

That's not to say Yzerman is some kind of draft guru.
Slater Koekkok. Anthony DAngelo. Brett Connolly.
He's had some fairly substantial misses.

But you can see a method to his madness that shows there's more than luck involved.
 
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Frk It

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Most of the players people think of when they think of good Tampa players were drafted within a 3 year time span from 08-11. They also include first overall like Stamkos and 2nd overall like Hedman. I'm not really going to give a team credit for drafting a winner with the top 2 picks in a draft. Yes, they've hit on some really good players outside of them but we'll see if in a couple years they're still finding Kucherovs. outside the 1st round. Again, Wings also crushed it for a few years. Not anymore.

Looking at their stats this year... following guys were taken outside of the top 20 picks:

Kucherov - 64 pts in 49 games
Point - 44 pts in 49 games
Namestnikov - 39 pts in 49 games
Palat 30 pts in 46 games

That's 3 guys on pace for 65 pts or more.

If you draft for size over speed/skill, even if you draft "well" by correctly identifying the players you want you're going to be behind the curve.

Preaching to the choir.
 
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I mean, what is location, really
It's crazy what can happen when complacency sets in. Doesn't mean the Wings didn't have a clear advantage for awhile with their scouting. They were cleaning up and covering more ground in Europe, and it showed.

Tampa is cleaning up at forward, and Nashville has been cleaning up at defenseman. At what point is it no longer a fluke that you are better at everyone else at evaluating those positions?

Assuming it's all luck assumes that every team has the same ability to evaluate players, which is something I could never subscribe to.
The thing that strikes me is the Wings are still relying on the idea that they can beat everyone else by looking places other teams aren't: the Czech Republic, or lower tier Swedish leagues, or drafting out of style prospects like stay at home defensemen. It seems like Detroit is not very confident in their ability to outscout other teams in well-covered leagues, like the CHL or college hockey. They're trying to avoid direct competition by finding guys other teams aren't considering.

Whereas teams like Nashville and TB are eating everyone's lunch head to head, regardless of where they're picking. Detroit just won't play that game right now. I'm starting to wonder how long it'll be before we see some new faces in the scouting group, because they do not seem very confident in themselves right now.
 
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