Player Discussion Leon "Dr Drai" Draisaitl: The Next Episode

[oobga]

Probably about the same # IMO.

Because he should be a top 15 cap hit? Or because Chia?

Don't get my wrong, I like Drai a lot, and if McLellan and Chia stop being an idiots or finally get removed, he will be an elite #2C for us that can fill in well as #1 if McDavid is hurt. But I can't see a GM that is actually good at negotiating giving him 8.5M right now this summer.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I find it odd as well. Not sure it would have helped much, those two players really didn't add much to the club in 2018 either. I think Drai might be the best center for Lucic that we have, he slows the game down and can work the cycle. Both things that Lucic needs.

So many coaching decisions this year that leave you scratching your head.

Yep. Theres no way to explain it other than McLellan being stubborn. The WOWY numbers are really interesting. Slepy has had less minutes with Drai than any winger Draisaitl has had. Yet the two clicked instantaneously last playoffs and looked good anytime they were out on the ice this season which was very limited. Slepy plays a prototypical Russian puck support game and Drai is not far removed from that type of game. Agree with Lucic as well. He was really off this year for half a season but when he's on he possesses puck reasonably well and can work give and go's and finish some plays.

I actually think we won't see Slepychev again. Its a strange use of this player. He has some talent and confidence controlling the puck at this level. Could be some background stuff we don't see. Maybe coaches think he doesn't work hard enough in practice. I dunno.

 

[Fourier]

Change this thread title to "Leon Draisatl - Waiting for his next vacation and the season to end"

What a putrid last half.

I remember him and his clan sitting at a diner table in Sweden posting a pic when he signed his extension. Congrats guys. Congrats!

In the last 41 games of the season he had 38 points. 30 of those were ES. If that is putrid I am not sure what you expect of the guy. Over the same stretch Benn and Seguin had 41 points, Gaudreau had 39 points and Kucherov had 43.

Leon definitely had some games down the stretch where it looked like he was not fully engaged but let's not exaggerate his lack of production to this degree.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Change this thread title to "Leon Draisatl - Waiting for his next vacation and the season to end"

What a putrid last half.

I remember him and his clan sitting at a diner table in Sweden posting a pic when he signed his extension. Congrats guys. Congrats!

Yes 38 points in 41 games in the second half. What a putrid last half...

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Drai is a ****ing beast. He can play a big mans game down the middle or on the wing. For years we've drooled over the likes of Thornton, Kopitar and Getzlaf in our division. Now we have our own guy that can play that type of a game and we ***** about him because his numbers were down because our PP sucked. If he had the same amount of PP points as last year he would've been knocking on the top 10 in scoring this season.

 

[McShogun99]

Out of all the players that finished with more points then Draisaitl, only 5 of them have a higher cap hit. So for 8.5 million Draisaitl better be a consistent top 20 scorer for the next 7 years

 

[SaltNPeca]

Drai is a ****ing beast. He can play a big mans game down the middle or on the wing. For years we've drooled over the likes of Thornton, Kopitar and Getzlaf in our division. Now we have our own guy that can play that type of a game and we ***** about him because his numbers were down because our PP sucked. If he had the same amount of PP points as last year he would've been knocking on the top 10 in scoring this season.

Just waiting for the kid to make some mistake in an ig post or comment to the media and be chased out of Oil Country like the last big center they drafted, Jason Arnott. He can then go on to become a Captain and Stanley Cup champion. Maybe, just like Arnott, he can go to Jersey?

If the deal is sweet enough they'll take on another overrated Oiler reject who clearly isn't worth his salary, draft position, cap hit, etc.

 

[Walter Sobchak]

Drai is part of this teams core moving forward along with McDavid, Nuge and Nurse. I, personally wouldn't trade Larsson, Klefbom, Puljujarvi or Strome, but you could make a solid argument that with the exception of McDavid, Drai, Nuge and Nurse everyone on this team is available.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Out of all the players that finished with more points then Draisaitl, only 5 of them have a higher cap hit. So for 8.5 million Draisaitl better be a consistent top 20 scorer for the next 7 years

Drai was 36 place in scoring although tied for 34th with two other players that played more games. Anyway, 30 of the players ahead of him are considerably older. Vast majority are in their prime and not still figuring it out.

But the bolded in your post is interesting. As in Drai better deliver because look at his cap hit. Well lets look at it then.

He's just coming off 925K ELC contract. In 15-16 he was 2nd on the whole club in pts with 51/72GP. Two of the players the Oilers were paying 6M for had less pts, Eberle with 47 and RNH with an injury plagued 34. So one could easily argue Draisaitl was worth in the range of 6M that season. So that he's 5M up on contribution that ELC year.

In 16-17 Draisaitl finished with an amazing 77pts. Again 2nd on the team and when combined with his spectacular playoffs total of 16pts its 93pts on the season combined. Eberle had 51pts and RNH 43. The amazing thing is Nuge had only 47pts in 95 combined games. Drai had TWICE as many on the year. Lets just say Drai was worth 7.5M last season and call it a day. Who could argue. So that puts him 6.5M ahead of caphit on the year.

So that in the last 2 seasons Draisaitl on an ELC has performed consistent to exceeding his caphit value by 11.5M give or take a bit.

This year Drai finishes with 70pts in 78GP and so serves up value around 7M (considering he's consistently busting totals of the players that the org has chronically paid 6m for. (Think about the Lucic contract as well) So in established Oiler payscale precedent its hard to argue anything but that Drai comfortable exceeded 6M value this season. I would put it at 7M. So that he's an overpay this season of around 1.5M


So this still puts Draisaitl up 10M in value served up.

A little contrary to a notion that Draisaitl is owing the club right about now..

Finally, this is year 1 of an 8yr deal. Contracts will likely go up considerably during that time frame. With LTC you don't often expect to get value in the first years. You expect value as the contract ensues. 8.5M for Draisaitl could look like value in even a couple years.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Drai was 36 place in scoring although tied for 34th with two other players that played more games. Anyway, 30 of the players ahead of him are considerably older. Vast majority are in their prime and not still figuring it out.

But the bolded in your post is interesting. As in Drai better deliver because look at his cap hit. Well lets look at it then.

He's just coming off 925K ELC contract. In 15-16 he was 2nd on the whole club in pts with 51/72GP. Two of the players the Oilers were paying 6M for had less pts, Eberle with 47 and RNH with an injury plagued 34. So one could easily argue Draisaitl was worth in the range of 6M that season. So that he's 5M up on contribution that ELC year.

In 16-17 Draisaitl finished with an amazing 77pts. Again 2nd on the team and when combined with his spectacular playoffs total of 16pts its 93pts on the season combined. Eberle had 51pts and RNH 43. The amazing thing is Nuge had only 47pts in 95 combined games. Drai had TWICE as many on the year. Lets just say Drai was worth 7.5M last season and call it a day. Who could argue. So that puts him 6.5M ahead of caphit on the year.

So that in the last 2 seasons Draisaitl on an ELC has performed consistent to exceeding his caphit value by 11.5M give or take a bit.

This year Drai finishes with 70pts in 78GP and so serves up value around 7M (considering he's consistently busting totals of the players that the org has chronically paid 6m for. (Think about the Lucic contract as well) So in established Oiler payscale precedent its hard to argue anything but that Drai comfortable exceeded 6M value this season. I would put it at 7M. So that he's an overpay this season of around 1.5M


So this still puts Draisaitl up 10M in value served up.

A little contrary to a notion that Draisaitl is owing the club right about now..

Finally, this is year 1 of an 8yr deal. Contracts will likely go up considerably during that time frame. With LTC you don't often expect to get value in the first years. You expect value as the contract ensues. 8.5M for Draisaitl could look like value in even a couple years.

Using this logic. Mcdavid should of gotten max cap hit

 

[FlameChampion]

I think Draisaitl had a good but not great year. The guys a beast but he really needs to work on his consistency. I also think that they need to give him at least one good winger. The guy needs help. I personally dont think he was an 8.5 million dollar player this year. But the thing is, the contract was signed for 8 years and the contract is signed through all his prime years. Its not like a Toews contract where hes getting paid 10 million for his most unproductive years. Toews got paid for past accomplishments which Chicago is probably fine with.

I personally think Chiarelli could of negotiated the deal better but at the end of the day he would of ended up saving maybe $1 million a year. Its important but not really a deal breaker. Its all of the other contracts .... which are worse.

If they can get Draisaitl some help, the contract should be fine with them likely getting good value on it.

 

[FlameChampion]

Using this logic. Mcdavid should of gotten max cap hit

Well McDavid probably should. The problem is that its too hard to win in a cap world making max.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Using this logic. Mcdavid should of gotten max cap hit

Not sure I understand your critique of the logic. McD IS the highest paid player in the league and should be.

Feel free to dispute what Draisaitl has delivered to the Oilers in value in his tenure.

Star players during their ELC's provide clubs with immense value far beyond their caphit. That is generally recognized, but doesn't seem to be in the case of Draisaitl.

Teams with ringers in ELC benefit enormously, usually. The Oilers had two of these and had difficulty parlaying it to much.

 

[oXo Cube]

Using this logic. Mcdavid should of gotten max cap hit

Ummm, yes?

McDavid at anything less than the max is a discount.

 

[nabob]

Using this logic. Mcdavid should of gotten max cap hit

And Lucic should be paying a team to play him if he has another contract lol.

Can't say I've seen someone stretch that far before to justify something. I'm a huge Nuge fan and can fully admit he didn't earn the full amount of his pay the last two year, but will fight anyone who says he was overpaid this year.

 

[Crude]

Cant be bothered to get caught up on the recent posts in this thread, but in light of the thread on the mains about Barzal's next deal, can anyone seriously complain about Drai at $8.5M for the next 7 years?

It blows my mind that people here are still complaining about this deal. The comparisons last summer seemed to always be around Tarasenko and Kuznestov. What about the fact that Eichel is signed for $10M and it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Matthews will get $11M + ?

This guy is a beast and we are lucky to have him.

 

[McDNicks17]

It still blows my mind that people are valuing Drai's contract based on comparisons to contracts signed 2-3 years ago instead of contracts that will be signed in 2-3 years.

It's an eight year contract. Obviously he's going to be "overpaid" in the first couple of seasons.

 

[PaPaDee]

Because he should be a top 15 cap hit? Or because Chia?

Don't get my wrong, I like Drai a lot, and if McLellan and Chia stop being an idiots or finally get removed, he will be an elite #2C for us that can fill in well as #1 if McDavid is hurt. But I can't see a GM that is actually good at negotiating giving him 8.5M right now this summer.

Mostly because of Chia. He put up similar numbers again this year (compared to last) so I can't see why Chia would have been able to get him at a lower number this off-season.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It still blows my mind that people are valuing Drai's contract based on comparisons to contracts signed 2-3 years ago instead of contracts that will be signed in 2-3 years.

It's an eight year contract. Obviously he's going to be "overpaid" in the first couple of seasons.

He’s not even “overpaid” imo, he’s where he should be with how salaries are going,

RyJo got 8m and draisaitl is the vastly superior player

 

[PaPaDee]

He’s not even “overpaid” imo, he’s where he should be with how salaries are going,

RyJo got 8m and draisaitl is the vastly superior player

RFA coming off his ELC versus RFA (1 year from UFA). They're not good comparisons.

 

[Fourier]

It still blows my mind that people are valuing Drai's contract based on comparisons to contracts signed 2-3 years ago instead of contracts that will be signed in 2-3 years.

It's an eight year contract. Obviously he's going to be "overpaid" in the first couple of seasons.

This is a point that never takes hold. For a guy Leon's age you should really base expectations on an 8 year deal on a salary that is the present day equivalent of what he will earn in years 4 and 5. It is actually unreasonable to assume that someone Leon's age would fully earn his money in year one because if he did then inflation would mean that he was going to be underpaid for pretty much his whole deal. And while that would be great for the team it is not something you expect any player to accept easily.

Assuming cap inflation of roughly 5-6% which is fairly typical Draisaitl's expectations for this year should be more in line with a player earning about $6.8M on a mature deal.

 

[Little Fury]

It still blows my mind that people are valuing Drai's contract based on comparisons to contracts signed 2-3 years ago instead of contracts that will be signed in 2-3 years.

It's an eight year contract. Obviously he's going to be "overpaid" in the first couple of seasons.

If in two or three years he's putting up 70+ points and driving his own line and people are still saying he's overpaid, take it up with them. Right now though, you can't argue he's not overpaid.

 

[McDNicks17]

If in two or three years he's putting up 70+ points and driving his own line and people are still saying he's overpaid, take it up with them. Right now though, you can't argue he's not overpaid.

It's the first year of an eight year contract. He's obviously going to be overpaid.

The cap is rising drastically because of Vegas and there's another expansion team coming. It's not like the players/agents and teams didn't know that.

I'd far prefer to overpay him a little now to lock him in that number for eight years.

Would people have actually preferred a bridge and likely $10M+ contract to follow that up or a Pastrnak-esque deal to save ~$1M per year and see him walk in UFA two years sooner?

 

[Little Fury]

It's the first year of an eight year contract. He's obviously going to be overpaid.

The cap is rising drastically because of Vegas and there's another expansion team coming. It's not like the players/agents and teams didn't know that.

I'd far prefer to overpay him a little now to lock him in that number for eight years.

Would people have actually preferred a bridge and likely $10M+ contract to follow that up or a Pastrnak-esque deal to save ~$1M per year and see him walk in UFA two years sooner?

The simple issue with it being an overpay at present is that it hinders our ability to improve in the short term, which means pushing the window out a bit further than it would have been if he'd taken a bit less (and if they didn't also sign albatross deals with Lucic and Russell).

 

[McDNicks17]

The simple issue with it being an overpay at present is that it hinders our ability to improve in the short term, which means pushing the window out a bit further than it would have been if he'd taken a bit less (and if they didn't also sign albatross deals with Lucic and Russell).

The probable large amount of cap savings in 2-3+ years far outweighs a ~$1M overpayment now, IMO.