Prospect Info: Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #21

[Schenn]

I will make a thread everyday until we have determined the top 30 prospects according to Leaf fans on HFBoards.

Rankings:
1. Morgan Rielly - 92.86%
2. Frederik Gauthier - 32.39%
3. Matt Finn - 43.32%
4. Joe Colborne - 65.44%
5. Tyler Biggs - 31.91%
6. Stuart Percy - 42.50%
7. Josh Leivo - 50.00%
8. Petter Granberg - 49.33%
9. Jesse Blacker - 25.78%
10. Jerry D'Amigo - 31.68%
11. Carter Ashton - 56.72%
12. Greg McKegg - 24.24%
13. Brad Ross - 24.21%
14. Dominic Toninato - 23.42%
15. Tom Nilsson - 24.81%
16. Garret Sparks - 26.47%
17. Carter Verhaeghe - 28.74%
18. David Broll - 37.08%
19. Connor Brown - 42.68%
20. Andrew MacWilliam - 22.86%
21.

______________
On The Docket:

Tony Cameranesi
Spencer Abbott
Kenny Ryan
Viktor Loov
Andrew Crescenzi
Kevin Marshall
Fabrice Herzog
Chris Gibson
Ryan Rupert
Jamie Devane
Max Everson
Sam Carrick
Eric Knodel
Andreas Johnson
Antoine Bibeau
Dennis Robertson
____________
Next on the List:

N/A
______________
Past Results:
Prospect Ranking #1
Prospect Ranking #2
Prospect Ranking #2 - Tie Breaker
Prospect Ranking #3
Prospect Ranking #4
Prospect Ranking #5
Prospect Ranking #6
Prospect Ranking #7
Prospect Ranking #8
Prospect Ranking #9
Prospect Ranking #10
Prospect Ranking #11
Prospect Ranking #12
Prospect Ranking #13
Prospect Ranking #14
Prospect Ranking #15
Prospect Ranking #16
Prospect Ranking #17
Prospect Ranking #18
Prospect Ranking #19
Prospect Ranking #20

Suggest who I should add next

Click to read more...

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Is it finally Cameranesi time?

 

[BIitz]

Ugh the fact that Macwilliam went over Abbott pains me. Abbott is just so much farther ahead and has higher potential.

 

[Leafs For Life*]

Obvious choice is gonna win.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Ugh the fact that Macwilliam went over Abbott pains me. Abbott is just so much farther ahead and has higher potential.

We should really have criteria on these ranks .. I get that people are higher than others but some basis of:

- Projected role in the NHL (i.e. 3rd line checking forward, bottom pairing stay at home d-man)
- Possible upside (i.e. using the same players above, a top 6 power forward, top 4 shut down d-man)
- Likelihood of making an impact in the NHL in their projected role
- Likelihood of reaching their possible upside
Etc..

Hard to gauge how people view players with different ranking scales ...

In the Abbott vs MacWilliam case ... Abbott's projected role would be a top 6 scoring winger, with upside to being a top line winger ... However, at his age he's got a limited likelihood of making an impact in the NHL (in his projected role, and even further away in upside)

MacWilliam has a lower projected role, bottom paired physical d-man .. With some upside to being a #3-4 shut down defender ... He has a far greater likelihood of making an impact in the NHL at his projected role, and an equivalent likelihood of reaching his upside

 

[My Sweet Shadow]

We should really have criteria on these ranks .. I get that people are higher than others but some basis of:

- Projected role in the NHL (i.e. 3rd line checking forward, bottom pairing stay at home d-man)
- Possible upside (i.e. using the same players above, a top 6 power forward, top 4 shut down d-man)
- Likelihood of making an impact in the NHL in their projected role
- Likelihood of reaching their possible upside
Etc..

Hard to gauge how people view players with different ranking scales ...

In the Abbott vs MacWilliam case ... Abbott's projected role would be a top 6 scoring winger, with upside to being a top line winger ... However, at his age he's got a limited likelihood of making an impact in the NHL (in his projected role, and even further away in upside)

MacWilliam has a lower projected role, bottom paired physical d-man .. With some upside to being a #3-4 shut down defender ... He has a far greater likelihood of making an impact in the NHL at his projected role, and an equivalent likelihood of reaching his upside

That's what makes it interesting. Each voter has to decide how they want to weight each of those factors. How highly do you value max. potential compared to probability of success? How do you factor in age, position, stats, quality of competition/teammates, etc.

Of course this causes most threads to devolve into "I have no idea why x, y, and z were taken before k", or "x should have been taken 5 rounds ago", or "x is way overrated on these boards". Different personal methods of prospect evaluation can cause drastic fluctuations in rankings.

 

[BIitz]

We should really have criteria on these ranks .. I get that people are higher than others but some basis of:

- Projected role in the NHL (i.e. 3rd line checking forward, bottom pairing stay at home d-man)
- Possible upside (i.e. using the same players above, a top 6 power forward, top 4 shut down d-man)
- Likelihood of making an impact in the NHL in their projected role
- Likelihood of reaching their possible upside
Etc..

Hard to gauge how people view players with different ranking scales ...

In the Abbott vs MacWilliam case ... Abbott's projected role would be a top 6 scoring winger, with upside to being a top line winger ... However, at his age he's got a limited likelihood of making an impact in the NHL (in his projected role, and even further away in upside)

MacWilliam has a lower projected role, bottom paired physical d-man .. With some upside to being a #3-4 shut down defender ... He has a far greater likelihood of making an impact in the NHL at his projected role, and an equivalent likelihood of reaching his upside

I know, it's hard to gauge what we are ranking em on. But Macwilliam couldn't crack the Baby Leafs roster and he's just 2 years younger. That was still Abbott's first season and he finished as a PPG player for the Marlies in the playoffs. It's going to take Macwilliam at least a year to even sniff out the Leafs. In a years time they'll still both be on the Marlies and Abbott will have had the much better season. I can actually see Abbott contending for a spot on the Leafs in a couple years time.

The problem I have with Macwilliam is he's max a bottom pairing guy. He doesn't have good upside, and while he's a good hitter and a smart player, you just can't take him over the guy who is currently better, and projects to be better. Macwilliam would be lucky to carve out a career as a Mark Fraser esque player, I can safely say I think one day Abbott will be a 2nd/3rd line tweener who plays on the PP.

Yeah I know age is a slight detractor. But that was his first AHL season as a 24 year old. Keep in mind the massive log jam that was there for most of the year, and the fact that he was playing mostly 3rd line minutes and those numbers look more impressive. Even when he moved up he was often playing with an injured Joe Colborne. Guys still enter their prime at 28-30ish. He still has great years ahead of him.

 

[James Reimer]

Abbott then Cameranesi

 

[Cor]

Chris Gibson, then TC

 

[613Leafer]

One of our Euro scouts was very high on him.. So this deep into the prospect pool... Ill go with The Zog!!

 

[My Sweet Shadow]

One of our Euro scouts was very high on him.. So this deep into the prospect pool... Ill go with The Zog!!

He's definitely one of our more intriguing picks of the draft. I don't really know enough about him to rank him, but it should be interesting to see how he makes the transition in Quebec next season.

 

[Warden of the North]

Zog.

 

[Drew311]

How MacWilliam is a better prospect than Cameranesi is beyond me. I would assume if Tony was 2 inches taller he would be in the top 10.

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

Tony Cameranesi again. Should be there ahead of a couple of guys now..

 

[My Sweet Shadow]

How MacWilliam is a better prospect than Cameranesi is beyond me. I would assume if Tony was 2 inches taller he would be in the top 10.

2 inches taller, 20 pounds heavier, and the same wheels that he has now? He'd definitely be a threat for the top 10 (though he likely would have been taken a lot earlier than the 5th round ).

MacWilliam got the nod because of his likelihood to meet his potential and play a regular role in the NHL. Ideally, he turns into a solid 2nd pairing shut-down guy, but even if not, he's pretty close to being able to step into a Mark Fraser-esque role on the 3rd pairing. He also has the benefit of just finishing his senior year at UND, while Cameranesi just finished his first.

Cameranesi has tremendous skill and skating abilities and could very well become an impact top 6 player in the NHL. However, he's a lot less proven and a lot more of a boom-bust prospect. Many (including myself) were inclined to find MacWilliams advantage in NHL-readiness outweighed Cameranesi's skill advantage. I could easily be very wrong though. Time will tell.

 

[Stephen23]

Kenny Ryan here.