Prospect Info: Leafs 2017 1st Rd Pick (#17 OA) - Timothy Liljegren - 6'0" 188lbs RHD - Rogle BK

[Menzinger]

Who knows where he would be most comfortable? He might find being at home distracting. He might find it frustrating going back to a SHL team that gave him very little ice time last year. On the other hand he might love it. But, this is a player whose family moved when he was young to open more doors for his hockey development. I think he will be happiest going where the Leafs his development will be best. I have no idea where that will be.

I agree - but it's a decision best made by the player. I don't automatically think he needs to be brought to North America, especially if he'd prefer another year in the SHL.

 

[Duke Silver]

Exactly. The only reason Serg and Juolevi played in junior is because they weren't eligible for the AHL and were not ready for the NHL.

Liljegren needs to learn the defensive game at the pro level .. That won't happen in junior.

What was Erik Karlsson's journey?

2007-08 (17yo): SEL (7 GP, 1G-0A)
2008: Drafted
2008-09 (18yo): SEL (45GP, 5G-5A)
2009-10 (19yo): NHL (60GP, 5G-21A) <-- Got 9 game tryout, then sent down to AHL for 12 games, then called back up
2010-11 (20yo): NHL (75G, 13G-32A) <-- This is when he really got his game underneath him.

So Liljegren's journey (thus far) is:

2015-16 (16yo): SEL (19GP, 1G-4A)
2016-17 (17yo): SEL (19GP, 1G-4A)
2017: Drafted
2017-18 (18yo): SEL <--- Seems likely he'll beat Karlsson's 10 points at 18yo.

What I don't see Liljegren doing is breaking into the NHL at age 19. Think it'll take him an extra year.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Sergachyov and Juolevi played in the OHL in there draft+1 year, do you think Timothy Liljegren is a better prospect then both of them?

It doesn't matter if they were better or not. They didn't have the option to go to the AHL or Europe even if they or their organizations wanted them too.

Liljegren played in the SHL at 16 and did very well. Just because he struggled after catching mono and being bounced around by a garbage team doesn't mean that he should be relegated to the CHL.

 

[Kazparov]

People should probably do themselves a favour and not expect this kid to turn into Eric Karlson

 

[Duke Silver]

People should probably do themselves a favour and not expect this kid to turn into Eric Karlson

Maybe Erik Karlsson, though?

Nobody's saying that... they just have extremely similar playing styles and similar development journeys. Nobody's expecting Liljegren to win 5+ Norris trophies when he's all done.

 

[Walshy7]

It doesn't matter if they were better or not. They didn't have the option to go to the AHL or Europe even if they or their organizations wanted them too.

Liljegren played in the SHL at 16 and did very well. Just because he struggled after catching mono and being bounced around by a garbage team doesn't mean that he should be relegated to the CHL.

this, we spent marners entire draft+1 wishing we could send him to the marlies. Now we have a player we can put anywhere, the last place for me would be the CHL. He has elite offensive instincts strengthening his d play would be better learned in a pro league

 

[thewave]

People should probably do themselves a favour and not expect this kid to turn into Eric Karlson

People should however be prepared to witness a damn good hockey player that may make our team.

 

[HellasLEAF]

People should probably do themselves a favour and not expect this kid to turn into Eric Karlson

Too late.

 

[Mr Hockey]

It doesn't matter if they were better or not. They didn't have the option to go to the AHL or Europe even if they or their organizations wanted them too.

Liljegren played in the SHL at 16 and did very well. Just because he struggled after catching mono and being bounced around by a garbage team doesn't mean that he should be relegated to the CHL.

Having options on where to play has nothing to do with this discussions. You and others are saying a #17 pick in the draft is just too good to play in the OHL.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Having options on where to play has nothing to do with this discussions. You and others are saying a #17 pick in the draft is just too good to play in the OHL.

Because he's already shown that he's capable of playing against better competition and can thrive in that environment.

 

[Walshy7]

Having options on where to play has nothing to do with this discussions. You and others are saying a #17 pick in the draft is just too good to play in the OHL.

he was a top2 pick to start the season and top5 a little later. He played in the SHL at 16 there are kids who cant make their CHL teams at 16 he was in the 3rd best league in the world and played pretty well reading about it. Then he got mono and struggled this last season, whats more likely the illness affected him or he had a lucky season at 16 yrs old?

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Unless you're an NHL ready prospect you're not too good to play in the CHL. After a very disappointing season it's laughable to think Liljegren is 'too good' to play in the CHL in his D+1 year. Was Provorov too good for the CHL?

Yes.

 

[Caesium]

Because he's already shown that he's capable of playing against better competition and can thrive in that environment.

'Thrive'

He scored 5 points. Somehow people here are under the impression that 5 points in 19 games translates into 100+ points in the CHL. ****ing ridiculous. The Leafs draft this kid and Leaf fans think he's ****ing Bobby Orr.

 

[Caesium]

Yes.

I'll just quote someone that Leaf fans might know.

What’s the matter with being the best player and having the puck all the time and getting better and being confident? That to me is what makes sense. We’re in such a hurry to rush these kids. They’re not ready. They’re not strong enough and they’re not mature enough.

Arrive when you’re ready; be good right away.

Players like McDavid and Matthews are too good for the CHL, but those guys are very rare. 17th overall picks that struggled badly in their draft year are not too good to play in the CHL.

 

[zeke]

Leafs fans thought he was bobby orr before the draft, too.

other fans too.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm hearing Rogle looks like a mess with a coach who is reluctant to give youth ice-time. Might be in our best interest to find him a good landing spot in the OHL for tomorrow's import draft. Obviously, if he has a great camp and looks AHL ready then send him there, but a CHL back-up wouldn't be too bad. I don't think London has a spot for him unless the Canes put Kuokkanen in the AHL or Juolevi is NHL ready.

I still think he stays in Sweden, but its good to prepare for all options.

The kids upside is a RHD OEL. Hopefully, he can hit it. Gotta remember, the odd's of a 17th overall becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 defenders or higher is between 30 and 35%.

 

[TMLife*]

I'll just quote someone that Leaf fans might know.



Players like McDavid and Matthews are too good for the CHL, but those guys are very rare. 17th overall picks that struggled badly in their draft year are not too good to play in the CHL.

Too good or not, it’s not the best development path for him no matter how you slice it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think you're working a little backwards. Bob's list is the best because it's the most accurate. It's the most accurate because it's a reflection of NHL scouts.

It's logical to look at various sources, hell I'm sure most scouts/teams take a peak at all the lists, but I wouldn't discount Bob's list because of biases that everyone has.

I don't think it really matters which scouting service is the most accurate reflection of the draft order. Obviously the one who's using actual NHL scouts is most likely to be the most accurate. However the best scouting service should be determined by who most accurate predicts talent in the long run. I feel like 5 years down the road most people forget who had who ranked where besides for the odd "Button was really down on Virtanen, look how right he was" type of comment which is unfortunate, as it favours the risk takers(people often forget the wrong ones.

So as far as which one is the best I really have no idea, but I'd trust Bob's list to have the order the closest if that matters. Who the actual better scout would be a better question because you'd know who to trust more, not to find the likely order, but the more likely result down the line.

 

[Caesium]

Too good or not, it’s not the best development path for him no matter how you slice it.

I would rather have him in the CHL playing 20+ minutes per game than in Sweden playing nothing but the power play. I don't think he would get a big role in the AHL either, so yeah, I think the CHL is probably what would make him a better hockey player.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't think it really matters which scouting service is the most accurate reflection of the draft order. Obviously the one who's using actual NHL scouts is most likely to be the most accurate. However the best scouting service should be determined by who most accurate predicts talent in the long run. I feel like 5 years down the road most people forget who had who ranked where besides for the odd "Button was really down on Virtanen, look how right he was" type of comment which is unfortunate, as it favours the risk takers(people often forget the wrong ones.

So as far as which one is the best I really have no idea, but I'd trust Bob's list to have the order the closest if that matters. Who the actual better scout would be a better question because you'd know who to trust more, not to find the likely order, but the more likely result down the line.

I think a key thing is to focus on who is actually doing the legwork. A lot of companies copy lists to correct their mistakes near the end of the year.

For example, I know Hockey Prospect was one of the earliest to be in on Pettersson, Makar, and Heiskanen. I also know that they put in the leg work. ISS has become a joke, McKeans is bad, Recrutes is just Grant video scouting and ranting and maybe getting some comments from Trevor Timmins. Redline actually attends games, but I wonder what universe they live in sometimes.

FC is weird, they employ a lot of kids with journalist backgrounds. But, I simply can't trust a resource that uses Scott Wheeler as a so-called scout. I had to explain the USNTDP to him in the comment section of PPP once. He deleted my comment and edited his article......

The only list I put serious weight in is Bob, Craig and Hockey Prospect. I like Pronman for his write-ups given the cheap price and it being included in ESPN insider. Although, insider's quality has been destroyed by recent cuts.

Everyone is going to have misses but I really value a service that is out there grinding and putting in the leg-work. I also think their results have been pretty good over the years.

 

[stickty111]

With Timothy already showing he is too good for the OHL, either SHL or AHL/NHL is best option. Elite prospect with amazing hockey sense.
Extremely cringe worthy how many people overrate Makar when there is a good chance he gets destroyed in the OHL. He has shown he is better than pee wee's other than that nothing. People should stop overrating in thinking like he is the best d man the world has ever seen.
Timothy has shown he can dominate against top competition while Makar has not. Timothy equals too good for OHL. Makar is living off his top 5 selection based on dominating a league equalivent to pee wee hockey.

 

[TMLife*]

I would rather have him in the CHL playing 20+ minutes per game than in Sweden playing nothing but the power play. I don't think he would get a big role in the AHL either, so yeah, I think the CHL is probably what would make him a better hockey player.

I’d argue a tier 2 league in Sweden would be better for him. But if it’s not the SHL, we will make time for him on the AHL squad. Nielsen isn’t going to be stealing his 5v5 ice time, I’ll tell you that.

 

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

I'm hearing Rogle looks like a mess with a coach who is reluctant to give youth ice-time. Might be in our best interest to find him a good landing spot in the OHL for tomorrow's import draft. Obviously, if he has a great camp and looks AHL ready then send him there, but a CHL back-up wouldn't be too bad. I don't think London has a spot for him unless the Canes put Kuokkanen in the AHL or Juolevi is NHL ready.

I still think he stays in Sweden, but its good to prepare for all options.

The kids upside is a RHD OEL. Hopefully, he can hit it. Gotta remember, the odd's of a 17th overall becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 defenders or higher is between 30 and 35%.

Damn. I've been trying to find out this information since we drafted him. Probably the last thing I wanted to hear

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I would rather have him in the CHL playing 20+ minutes per game than in Sweden playing nothing but the power play. I don't think he would get a big role in the AHL either, so yeah, I think the CHL is probably what would make him a better hockey player.

I mean I'm down for a CHL team to draft him tomorrow for a backup option like 93Leafs mentioned, but what's best for him depends on quite a few things like will Rogle still be a mess with a coach that doesn't give youth a lot of minutes, will he be traded to a better team, will he have a great camp and mgmt. keeps him on the Marlies with plans on bringing him up in the new year, will they decide to keep him close and develop on the Marlies the entire year, etc., these are factors that come into play, if he is still only getting 10~ minutes on a crappy Rogle team then yea I would be ok with the CHL. But he's not going to learn a whole lot and work on his weaknesses in the CHL; both the SHL and AHL would be better for his development and working on those weaknesses.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

'Thrive'

He scored 5 points. Somehow people here are under the impression that 5 points in 19 games translates into 100+ points in the CHL. ****ing ridiculous. The Leafs draft this kid and Leaf fans think he's ****ing Bobby Orr.

Nice straw man.

No matter how you slice it you don't take someone who has already performed at a high level and then place them in a position where it will be easier for them. That is not the way a person improves, whether it's hockey or something else.

I'm confident the Leafs won't take Liljegren and place him in the CHL to "dominate." He'll be in the AHL of SHL next season for sure. Hopefully not with Rogle because the more I hear about that team the less I want him to be there. A half and half like Nylander did is the best option.