Salary Cap: Laine's contract in 19/20

[Plural]

Actually it is inevitable though. Smart has nothing to do with it You only have the first year after his ELC where he won't have arbitration rights. Arbitration is entirely about comparable contracts. It can't be avoided. And each year you delay signing him long term, the AAV gets bigger since there is one less RFA year. If the team is unwilling to pay him then they may as well trade him. I think they'll just choose to pay him and not go through that dance.

Yeah. If team is invested in player being key part of their future, they are more willing to pay through the teeth than keep stalling the negotiations.

I'm expecting Laine to sign 8-9m x 8 but I'm secretly hoping he takes a discount and agrees to 7m x 8.

 

[Plural]

yupp. I just value players differently under a salary cap. if there was no salary cap then sure let's talk about crazy money and throw in 10 mil, but there's a salary cap

he's still not the jets best players and those players get paid under 7 million

byfuglien is the only player who's contract is over besides some short term contracts

I mean unless you plan on getting lucky with your elc contracts for the next 5 years

So, Malkin wasn't the best player in the Pens, why did he get paid like one?

 

[RageQuit77]

Yeah. If team is invested in player being key part of their future, they are more willing to pay through the teeth than keep stalling the negotiations.

I'm expecting Laine to sign 8-9m x 8 but I'm secretly hoping he takes a discount and agrees to 7m x 8.

Hopefully.

Maybe 7.5m x 8, and The Key to the City. Deal!?

 

[surixon]

The max I see Chevy doing is the 11.09% that Patrick Kane got on his second deal. That would work out to a $8.9 million cap hit on a $80 million cap.

 

[Skidooboy]

ANYONE who thinks Laine is gonna sign for 8 years for anything less than 10.5 is dreaming.

The kid is off the charts in every way and getting better every game. I don't think an 80+ goal season is out of the realm of possibility.

I think he is just now starting to "figure it out" give him another year and let him grow into his body.....now imagine what hell be like at 25/26.........we haven't seen 1/2 of what Laine will do to this league. Lundquist's reaction after Laine's second goal said it all.

ps. dumping on PoMo or Little, for Laine'as "struggles" offensively early on is just silly. Laine is still working on playing the NA mans game....different players, different curves..it's noones "fault", he just needed to get acclimatised and understand the speed and effort needed every night. He's getting it now.

 

[Plural]

Laine has already passed Stamkos as the better goal scorer with era adjusted statistics and has 16 more games left to play. See for yourself:

One stat that puts Patrik Laine’s teenage years into legendary status - Article - BARDOWN

He will also outscore Stamkos in era adjusted total points barring an injury. So yeah, definitely tier if not four below pay wise! This example at least is a notch better than the one with Hall. I just wonder who comes next.

I understand the need to look for whatever possible statistics or data to justify a lower salary hit, but this is a bit ridiculous and certainly won't be determined at the HFboards.

The fact still remains that Stamkos had a top-5 point finish (top-5 point finishes are considered more valuable than top-5 goal finishes) AND a Rocket Richard trophy to his name after his sophomore season. He was also 6th in Hart voting and was considered the best player in Tampa even with St.Louis. Now, in hindsight we know that St.Louis probably had more effect in Stammer's scoring than people thought at the time, but the reality is, Stamkos was considered top-10 player in the game that season and third best C (after Sid and peak H. Sedin).

I love Laine and I've been pleasantly surprised about his insanely good start to his NHL career, but unless he goes completely bonkers for the rest of the season and breaks top-10 in points while winning the Richard he's not going to be comparable to Stamkos after his sophomore season.

 

[surixon]

Some people are getting a bit over excited. He's been excellent but he hasn't been head and shoulders better then some of the games elite wingers or other elite talent that has entered the league.

The best young wingers in the game have garnered cap hit %'s have between 10 and 11.09 % of the cap. That is $8 to 8.9 million with a $80 million cap. Heck even Stamkos a top 10 player on the league at the time and playing the more important C position only garnered 11.66% of the cap which would be $9.33 million today.

I don't think there is a case out there to pay him over 10 million nor do I think Chevy let' that happen. He's not Chia or whoever it was thatvinked Echiel to that deal.

 

[DRW204]

Some people are getting a bit over excited. He's been excellent but he hasn't been head and shoulders better then some of the games elite wingers or other elite talent that has entered the league.

The best young wingers in the game have garnered cap hit %'s have between 10 and 11.09 % of the cap. That is $8 to 8.9 million with a $80 million cap. Heck even Stamkos a top 10 player on the league at the time and playing the more important C position only garnered 11.66% of the cap which would be $9.33 million today.

I don't think there is a case out there to pay him over 10 million nor do I think Chevy let' that happen. He's not Chia or whoever it was thatvinked Echiel to that deal.

agreed but can't Laines agent then elect to just play the final ELC year if he feels he's worth more and along the lines of Eichel? Another 45-50G seasons at 20 YO wouldn't be out the realm of possibility. This year hasn't finished and he hasn't showcased his play in the POs...Just trying to play devils advocate.

 

[Plural]

agreed but can't Laines agent then elect to just play the final ELC year if he feels he's worth more and along the lines of Eichel? Another 45-50G seasons at 20 YO wouldn't be out the realm of possibility. This year hasn't finished and he hasn't showcased his play in the POs...Just trying to play devils advocate.

They can. But if the offer is good (which it probably will be considering how well Laine has done this season) why risk it?

 

[scelaton]

agreed but can't Laines agent then elect to just play the final ELC year if he feels he's worth more and along the lines of Eichel? Another 45-50G seasons at 20 YO wouldn't be out the realm of possibility. This year hasn't finished and he hasn't showcased his play in the POs...Just trying to play devils advocate.

Absolutely. If Laine's camp elects to hold out and go for maximum AAV, AND he continues to improve, we could be in for a big, big bill.
I am betting that is not what will happen, as not all players, families and agents (q.v. Trouba v Scheifele) are the same.
Check out Tavares' second contract.

 

[surixon]

agreed but can't Laines agent then elect to just play the final ELC year if he feels he's worth more and along the lines of Eichel? Another 45-50G seasons at 20 YO wouldn't be out the realm of possibility. This year hasn't finished and he hasn't showcased his play in the POs...Just trying to play devils advocate.

Jack Echiel plays C so his market is a bit different. His contract is also an outlier from the general market trend for his position. As I mentioned the elite C's of the league outside the big 3 all signed for between 11 and 12% of the cap on their second deals. That is a pretty established market that even Drisitel was fit into at 11.33% of the cap.

Even McDavid's deal didn't deviate from the generational player market as he fit in nicely between Malkin (15.34) and Crosby (17.3).

I guess Laine's agent could be a bit unreasonable and push for it but something tells me that he's not that kind of person and will be happy to play for a fair market value deal which id peg somewhere between 8 and 9.3.

 

[Lempo]

One problem is that it's not specifically a Winnipeg contract he will sign; it's an NHL SCP that is tradeable to anywhere by the rules of the CBA and the terms of the SPC, and there absolutely is no legal guarantee the team can give to Laine until the UFA years that he is not traded if a trade you can't refuse comes onto the table. If he signs for $6.8M, he doesn't sign himself up to play the duration in Winnipeg with this player core but in any 30+ team there is in the league. And it's the same thing with any other player.

There are "gentlemen's agreements", yes, but there also is a written stipulation on every SPC that parties assure that no such gentlemen's agreements have been agreed on.

Hometown discounts have risks, especially for a winger with the stacked offense that Jets have. At some point they may be badly in need for a 1st pairing D-man for a cup run.

 

[DRW204]

They can. But if the offer is good (which it probably will be considering how well Laine has done this season) why risk it?

I guess it depends what is considered a good offer to them. Chevy isn't an idiot like Buffalo's previous GM, but the fact is Eichel is getting 10M. I point to that contract first if I am the agent. Whether it is an overpay or not is irrelevant to me, he is getting paid that, and Laine's production speaks for itself. it will be truly interesting to see. he still has 16 games to go + POs.

 

[DRW204]

Jack Echiel plays C so his market is a bit different. His contract is also an outlier from the general market trend for his position. As I mentioned the elite C's of the league outside the big 3 all signed for between 11 and 12% of the cap on their second deals. That is a pretty established market that even Drisitel was fit into at 11.33% of the cap.

Even McDavid's deal didn't deviate from the generational player market as he fit in nicely between Malkin (15.34) and Crosby (17.3).

I guess Laine's agent could be a bit unreasonable and push for it but something tells me that he's not that kind of person and will be happy to play for a fair market value deal which id peg somewhere between 8 and 9.3.

Hall was at 10% of the cap at the time, i think that is the absolute floor for Laine. Hall had a ppg year and 0.85 career PPG at the time of signing (also injury concerns). Laine will have finished with 40+ Gs (could have had 2 40G+ years) and likely a top 3 Rocket finish. PPG wise he is a shade under 0.90, there is also the playoff factor and the fact this is all before he hits 20.
Stamkos was at 11.66% (he had two 90+ pt years+Richard trophy, also FLA taxes?)

the numbers Laine is putting up are unprecedented for his age, better than Draisaitl and Eichel at the time of signing. How much do you think the C v W debate weighs in vs what Laine has accomplished thus far in his teen years (and still going)?

 

[surixon]

Hall was at 10% of the cap at the time, i think that is the absolute floor for Laine. Hall had a ppg year and 0.85 career PPG at the time of signing (also injury concerns). Laine will have finished with 40+ Gs (could have had 2 40G+ years) and likely a top 3 Rocket finish. PPG wise he is a shade under 0.90, there is also the playoff factor and the fact this is all before he hits 20.
Stamkos was at 11.66% (he had two 90+ pt years+Richard trophy, also FLA taxes?)

the numbers Laine is putting up are unprecedented for his age, better than Draisaitl and Eichel at the time of signing. How much do you think the C v W debate weighs in vs what Laine has accomplished thus far in his teen years (and still going)?

They aren't unprecedented (Crosby and McDavid smashed Laine out of the water), Stamkos and Kane performed just as well or better production wise and both only got between 11.1 and 11.7 % of the cap. People need to pump the breaks a bit on Laine. We are letting the hype go a bit too far. As I said a reasonable offer is between the floor Hall at 8 and the ceiling Stamkos at 9.3.

 

[Plural]

I guess it depends what is considered a good offer to them. Chevy isn't an idiot like Buffalo's previous GM, but the fact is Eichel is getting 10M. I point to that contract first if I am the agent. Whether it is an overpay or not is irrelevant to me, he is getting paid that, and Laine's production speaks for itself. it will be truly interesting to see. he still has 16 games to go + POs.

That's true. But if we assume Cheveldayoff is not an idiot then we probably have to assume Laine's agent (was it Liut?) is not an idiot either. He can point to the Eichel contract and demand Laine similar pay but if we know Eichel deal was anomaly and Cheveldayoff knows it an anomaly so does Liut.

From Jets POV, locking up Laine asap seems like a good idea. He's been tremendously consistent in his production and is showing very promising signs of progression both individual offensive skills and overall play. If they wait one more year it's possible Laine continues to improve and they end up in a situation where they have to pay 10m+ per year to keep him. From Laine's POV, he just had a great season and unless Chevy heavily low-balls him (which is probably not something that will happen) his safe bet is to take the big pay. Athletes are subject to career ending injuries practically on a daily basis and one sub-par season might cost young player 10-16 million in long term deal.

Think about it like this. You've been given two options. Option A guarantees you 65 million dollars salary for the combined 8 years. Option B gives you one more year to try and effect that salary. Depending on your performance and luck, the next salary offer can be anywhere between 48 million 80 million dollars. Now, even if you have almost unlimited confidence in your ability to improve the offer closer to 80 million, would you challenge lady luck and possibly end up lowering your total income by 7 figures?

 

[DRW204]

They aren't unprecedented (Crosby and McDavid smashed Laine out of the water), Stamkos and Kane performed just as well or better production wise and both only got between 11.1 and 11.7 % of the cap. People need to pump the breaks a bit on Laine. We are letting the hype go a bit too far. As I said a reasonable offer is between the floor Hall at 8 and the ceiling Stamkos at 9.3.

should have clarified, the goal scoring is unprecedented for his age.

I think we are just off in the ceiling..i agree Hall is the floor, but I would say Eichel is the ceiling.

 

[surixon]

should have clarified, the goal scoring is unprecedented for his age.

I think we are just off in the ceiling..i agree Hall is the floor, but I would say Eichel is the ceiling.

I don't see Chevy doing that nor do I see Laine being that unreasonable but we shall see. I should clarify that I also don't see Lou doing the Echiel deal for Mathews in Toronto either. Lou will negotiate hard for a Stamkos/Kopitar type deal.

 

[DRW204]

That's true. But if we assume Cheveldayoff is not an idiot then we probably have to assume Laine's agent (was it Liut?) is not an idiot either. He can point to the Eichel contract and demand Laine similar pay but if we know Eichel deal was anomaly and Cheveldayoff knows it an anomaly so does Liut.

From Jets POV, locking up Laine asap seems like a good idea. He's been tremendously consistent in his production and is showing very promising signs of progression both individual offensive skills and overall play. If they wait one more year it's possible Laine continues to improve and they end up in a situation where they have to pay 10m+ per year to keep him. From Laine's POV, he just had a great season and unless Chevy heavily low-balls him (which is probably not something that will happen) his safe bet is to take the big pay. Athletes are subject to career ending injuries practically on a daily basis and one sub-par season might cost young player 10-16 million in long term deal.

Think about it like this. You've been given two options. Option A guarantees you 65 million dollars salary for the combined 8 years. Option B gives you one more year to try and effect that salary. Depending on your performance and luck, the next salary offer can be anywhere between 48 million 80 million dollars. Now, even if you have almost unlimited confidence in your ability to improve the offer closer to 80 million, would you challenge lady luck and possibly end up lowering your total income by 7 figures?

His agent might not be an idiot, but earns a commission on GMs paying more on the AAV. I think Laine is around the 8.5-9M long term right now, but he still has the rest of this regular season/player awards (basically the Rocket)/POs. In an optimistic hypothetical scenario, let's say he finishes with 50Gs/Wins the rocket/1+ PPG in the POs. How much is he worth now? vs his current pace of 47G/2nd in rocket/0.92 PPG in the POs?

I mean, Laine had a start to the season that was slightly below expectations, I think he could put up 50Gs next year/1PPG. It is risk vs reward and how much the GMs offering

 

[surixon]

His agent might not be an idiot, but earns a commission on GMs paying more on the AAV. I think Laine is around the 8.5-9M long term right now, but he still has the rest of this regular season/player awards (basically the Rocket)/POs. In an optimistic hypothetical scenario, let's say he finishes with 50Gs/Wins the rocket/1+ PPG in the POs. How much is he worth now? vs his current pace of 47G/2nd in rocket/0.92 PPG in the POs?

I mean, Laine had a start to the season that was slightly below expectations, I think he could put up 50Gs next year/1PPG. It is risk vs reward and how much the GMs offering

Drasital put up a .9 something log in the season last year and was 1.23 ppg in the playoffs. He got 11.33. Unless Laine replicated those playoff numbers I don't see it having a significant effect on his deal

Edit Chevy could easily counter with Patrick Kane who pit up back to back 70 point seasons before an 88 point season.

He scored 14 points in 16 games his first playoff enroute to a conference finals appeaance before scoring 28 in 22 the next year to help lead Chicago to a cup. Kane has a cap hit % of 11.09. I think Kane's contract % is right where Laine should end up regardless of what he does in the playoffs as Kane pretty much did it all there as well.

 

[Plural]

His agent might not be an idiot, but earns a commission on GMs paying more on the AAV. I think Laine is around the 8.5-9M long term right now, but he still has the rest of this regular season/player awards (basically the Rocket)/POs. In an optimistic hypothetical scenario, let's say he finishes with 50Gs/Wins the rocket/1+ PPG in the POs. How much is he worth now? vs his current pace of 47G/2nd in rocket/0.92 PPG in the POs?

I mean, Laine had a start to the season that was slightly below expectations, I think he could put up 50Gs next year/1PPG. It is risk vs reward and how much the GMs offering

Yeah, we're on the same page here. The risk/reward ratio is something Laine and Liut will decide together so we obviously don't know where they draw the line. Eichel contract is probably the upper limit they can go after. Maybe even tad higher if Laine goes balls out the rest of the season and PO's. If they are dead set on around 10m per a and Chevy refuses to come in terms with it then the only option is to play third year and hope the results sway Chevy.

As of now, I think your idea of 8.5-9M is pretty realistic. Might be tad lower but close enough. However there are several moving parts that we as fans can't predict. As much as I would love to see Laine signing below 8M a year to help the Jets with other contracts I don't see it being that realistic. Then again, who knows?

 

[Lempo]

Drasital put up a .9 something log in the season last year and was 1.23 ppg in the playoffs. He got 11.33. Unless Laine replicated those playoff numbers I don't see it having a significant effect on his deal

Counter-point: Draisaitl battled until the last Regulal Season game to replace Eichel on the league top 10 to get Schedule B millions on ppg. Laine was kind of safe (7th) on the money on Goals on his first ELC season.

 

[DRW204]

Drasital put up a .9 something log in the season last year and was 1.23 ppg in the playoffs. He got 11.33. Unless Laine replicated those playoff numbers I don't see it having a significant effect on his deal

Drai's CTD (career to date) at the time of signing were 137 pts in 191 GP 0.72 ppg. ages 19-21 and then 16 pts/13gp in POs
Laine's CTD are 125 pts in 139GP o.9 PPG and PO #s are TBD. Also currently leads in goals since he has been in the league and might add a piece of hardware to his name. Ages 18-19.

I don't think we are far off, we agree on lower limits just 700k apart on the upper.

Yeah, we're on the same page here. The risk/reward ratio is something Laine and Liut will decide together so we obviously don't know where they draw the line. Eichel contract is probably the upper limit they can go after. Maybe even tad higher if Laine goes balls out the rest of the season and PO's. If they are dead set on around 10m per a and Chevy refuses to come in terms with it then the only option is to play third year and hope the results sway Chevy.

As of now, I think your idea of 8.5-9M is pretty realistic. Might be tad lower but close enough. However there are several moving parts that we as fans can't predict. As much as I would love to see Laine signing below 8M a year to help the Jets with other contracts I don't see it being that realistic. Then again, who knows?

agreed fully. i think right now he is 8.5-9M as mentioned, i am just throwing it out there that there is a possibility of him adding to his current #s/trophy case + PO production

 

[NotCommitted]

One problem is that it's not specifically a Winnipeg contract he will sign; it's an NHL SCP that is tradeable to anywhere by the rules of the CBA and the terms of the SPC, and there absolutely is no legal guarantee the team can give to Laine until the UFA years that he is not traded if a trade you can't refuse comes onto the table. If he signs for $6.8M, he doesn't sign himself up to play the duration in Winnipeg with this player core but in any 30+ team there is in the league. And it's the same thing with any other player.

There are "gentlemen's agreements", yes, but there also is a written stipulation on every SPC that parties assure that no such gentlemen's agreements have been agreed on.

Hometown discounts have risks, especially for a winger with the stacked offense that Jets have. At some point they may be badly in need for a 1st pairing D-man for a cup run.

This is a very good point and one reason why players should always squeeze the maximum money (unless they are at a position to get no trade clauses etc.) - it just makes no sense to take team friendly discounts if in the end you're nothing but a business piece anyway. If the league and teams treat players as pieces to be traded and moved at will, then the players should treat the league and teams as nothing more as sources for as much money as you can pump out. That's a bit cynical take, but then again history is full of trades where the player was assured until the last minute he's not going anywhere and then told the next day "oh btw, you are not going to play tonight, you've been traded to Faraway city".

I think you can guess I'm not a big fan of how that system works. IMO players should be in charge of their lives and any deal they sign should be between them and the team they sign it with. For example if I sign a deal with FC Barcelona, then the deal I have is between me and them, not between me and whoever FC Barcelona decides. Not directly comparable because the way the leagues and sports work but anyway...

 

[kelsier]

The fact still remains that Stamkos had a top-5 point finish (top-5 point finishes are considered more valuable than top-5 goal finishes) AND a Rocket Richard trophy to his name after his sophomore season. He was also 6th in Hart voting and was considered the best player in Tampa even with St.Louis. Now, in hindsight we know that St.Louis probably had more effect in Stammer's scoring than people thought at the time, but the reality is, Stamkos was considered top-10 player in the game that season and third best C (after Sid and peak H. Sedin).

I love Laine and I've been pleasantly surprised about his insanely good start to his NHL career, but unless he goes completely bonkers for the rest of the season and breaks top-10 in points while winning the Richard he's not going to be comparable to Stamkos after his sophomore season.

I'm not at all underminding Stamkos' sophomore season but I think at the same time you are seriously excelling where I'm failing that comes to Laine. So far the kid has lead his team in the playoff trophy while being under age, won WJC gold, broke Jagr's decades old record in the WHC, been awarded the best player trophies in both FEL and WHC even before landing into NHL. Such are the records which end the pre-NHL era. Since coming to the Jets the Patrik has finished his first season being top 5 in GPG (accomplishment no other 18 year old has achieved in the history of the league), followed by possibly wrapping up the sophomore season while scoring the most goals in the league since entering it, with an option of winning Rocket Richard's trophy. If he does in fact win that trophy then he absolutely will be regarded of having on par or even better first two years that Stamkos. Lets not forget that Stamkos, while all worthy of his status, timed over 20 minutes a game during the sophomore year. Something Laine could only dream about and in the end, it will be those extra minutes keeping Laine from entering the G + A race. He has not received any handouts while he's more than fulfilled his role by playing in the 2nd or 3rd line and letting other guys get the minutes. Also a detail which will be taken into account when entering negotiation table. The bigger the achievements with lesser expectations will always carry it's own award when breached.

At the end of the day given all the unprecedented achievements unlocked by Laine will cement his first years (from 17 to 19 if not 20) into the history of the game (both international and national). There are youngsters earning insane amounts of dollars without being even remotely close to having achieved equal feats as Laine. He is is a 10+m/y player come 19-20 if he so chooses.