Salary Cap: Laine's contract in 19/20

[Daximus]

$10mil will effectively kill any chance of a SC for Laine's duration here of that contract. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

 

[GNP]

Pay him a bazillion. He's only 19. Imagine. He will be worth it.

________________________________________________________

Well, it certainly would be worth it to Laine - butr can a small franchise like Winnipeg afford all these stars ?? Someone will have to go, or something will have to give.

Don't forget we have to sign Trouba, Connor, and Wheeler's contract is coming up for renewal.

I think we'll see one of Trouba / Buff gone -- and also Mason and Enstrom will be gone or sign for less at $ 1.5 mil per year. Some retooling will need to be done.

NOTE- If Wheelr will want in the $ 7.5 to 8 range --it's my guess they wil trade him, as they have Scheif at a good price.

Question--is there something wrong with this site ?? or my computer ?? -- Iahve to log in every 3 minutes.

 

[FinnJet]

Who is better, nr.1 or nr.2? Seriously, in number wise they have been pretty much equal during their short NHL careers. Whatever Auston gets Patrik should get, if not the same, not more than max. 1mil/year less.

 

[Aavco Cup]

it doesn't work that when you're a smart general manager
you don't let other crappy gms decide how to fit your team under a salary cap

Actually it is inevitable though. Smart has nothing to do with it You only have the first year after his ELC where he won't have arbitration rights. Arbitration is entirely about comparable contracts. It can't be avoided. And each year you delay signing him long term, the AAV gets bigger since there is one less RFA year. If the team is unwilling to pay him then they may as well trade him. I think they'll just choose to pay him and not go through that dance.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Ovechkin's contract equivalent under an $80M cap would carry a $13.5M AAV.

I'd say Laine's equivalent to Ovi's AAV would be $9.6M if he signed this summer (just based on a bunch of back-of-the-napkin adjustments comparing the two players' first 2 ELC years).

That's in the ballpark, especially if the kid wins the Rocket. If they could still do 13-15 year contracs then $13M might be the right number.

 

[GNP]

Actually it is inevitable though. Smart has nothing to do with it You only have the first year after his ELC where he won't have arbitration rights. Arbitration is entirely about comparable contracts. It can't be avoided. And each year you delay signing him long term, the AAV gets bigger since there is one less RFA year. If the team is unwilling to pay him then they may as well trade him. I think they'll just choose to pay him and not go through that dance.

______________________________________________________

The Jet's will never get a team friendly contract by letting this go to arbitration. Also if it goes to arbitration and Laine scores 45-50 goals, the arbitrator would award him at least $ 9.5 mil per year, and right up to $ 10.5 mil per year. You'd have to. There is absolutely no way the Jet's will go thru this process-IMO.

If Jack Eichel got $ 10 mil per year, what do you think Laine would get ? coming off a 45-50 goal season !!!

They will have to sign him ASAP - before his numbers get way to high, and they could be looking at a "very expensive" contract.

 

[Jarey Curry]

I bet it's 8M

 

[surixon]

Back in 2015 Taresenko signed an 8 year 60 million dollar deal. That represented a cap hit % of 10.5 and annual hit of $7.5 million.

With an $80 million cap that would represent a $8.4 million hit. I think if Laine is flexible that number might be doable as Taresenko is a similar player although Laine would have a stronger case at the time of his signing.

 

[GNP]

Back in 2015 Taresenko signed an 8 year 60 million dollar deal. That represented a cap hit % of 10.5 and annual hit of $7.5 million.

With an $80 million cap that would represent a $8.4 million hit. I think if Laine is flexible that number might be doable as Taresenko is a similar player although Laine would have a stronger case at the time of his signing.[/QUOTE
______________________________________________________

I would think ole Vlad could buy a couple mid sized cities in Mother Russia with that kind of money !!!

 

[surixon]

Ok I compiled this for all the best wingers in the game who signed for at least 5 years after their ELC's:

Player	Caphit	% of Cap	Term
Taresenko	7,500	10.5%	8
Hall	6,000	10.0%	7
GAUDREAU	6,750	9.3%	6
Forsberg	6,000	8.2%	6
HUBERDEAU	5,900	8.1%	6
Kane (P)	6,300	11.1%	5
PASTRNAK	6,666	8.9%	6
Ryan	5,100	8.6%	5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There are enough data points for 6 seasons to do some projecting on a 80 million cap:

	Cap %	Cap hit
High	0.093	7,440
Average	0.086	6,880

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So I think on a 6 year deal a strong case could be made for Laine falling within the average and high end range. I would bet closer to the high end given he's proven more than all of those players outside of maybe Gaudreau and Pasternak.

Longer than 6 years it gets tricky, but he will most certainly at minimum get 10% of the cap. I would be fine with a Hall equivalent 7 year deal. That would be a 7 at a cap hit of $8 million.

 

[PhilJets]

Laine is projecting to be better than all of the above that @surixon indicate on his chart.

8M- 9M is about right. If he keeps killing it now it's on the 9M, which is still OK. but closer to 8M is better.

Do it LAINE..

Remember we love you in WINNIPEG!!!

We will build a monument for you after you
Win the rocket, Stanley and Conn Smyth . I know pressure but we know you can do it!

GO JETS GO

 

[surixon]

Laine is projecting to be better than all of the above that @surixon indicate on his chart.

8M- 9M is about right. If he keeps killing it now it's on the 9M, which is still OK. but closer to 8M is better.

Do it LAINE..

Remember we love you in WINNIPEG!!!

We will build a monument for you after you
Win the rocket, Stanley and Conn Smyth . I know pressure but we know you can do it!

GO JETS GO

I think Hall is in the same ball park. Different player types but have both impacted the game at an elite level offensively. For a 3 to 5 year stretch Hall was 2nd to only Crosby in ES p/60. He was also an elite play driver at ES at the time of his deal, something Laine isn't yet. As I said I'd feel very comfortable with giving Laine a Hall type deal.

 

[ItchyScratchy77]

If the deals Scheifele and Ehlers signed are any indication, I feel Laine will sign for 8-8.5 per X 6-8 years. Where he probably could demand up to 10 per if he were to push it. Seems slightly discounted contracts in the name of winning are the trend in Winnipeg. We do like our bargains here lol.

 

[Vekke]

Nitpicking about his defense is really useless. He has been quite solid on defence also and is usually first attacker down because he likes to hang out on second wave. You also have to admit that rocket and selke have never been won by the same player..

 

[Tommigun]

Less than a month ago he was tenth among regular forwards in ESP/60, unable to drive the play, making numerous defensive mistakes and had the acceleration of a supertanker. It's all there if you go back and read the threads...and at the time, some of his staunchest defenders were wanting Buff put on an ice flow. Now both of them are playing great, which just goes to show how many great players have their highs and lows. But offering $80M to a teenager based on a high is a very dangerous proposition.

Based on a high? He’s lead the league in scoring since entering it. Let’s be realistic here, shall we. I think he’s a smart man and won’t handcuff the team, but some of these posts are kinda unbelievable.

 

[Peggy]

Actually it is inevitable though. Smart has nothing to do with it You only have the first year after his ELC where he won't have arbitration rights. Arbitration is entirely about comparable contracts. It can't be avoided. And each year you delay signing him long term, the AAV gets bigger since there is one less RFA year. If the team is unwilling to pay him then they may as well trade him. I think they'll just choose to pay him and not go through that dance.

what's inevitable? just because buffalo made a stupid signing they're gonna go off that example?
I'm not gonna look st players like eichel and think "oh eichel signed for 10 the laine should get 10"

no if laine cared about winning a cup hed think about taking a pay cut as well as jets a management

I have a feeling laine isn't gonna take full value but still take a pretty penny

I think he's worth about 6.5 right now but mark value would put him at 7
and I think if he signs after his elc and scored another 40 he takes an 8.5 mill contract which I still think is high, but goals are a valuable thing

the jets are really close to building a stacked team fitting under the salary cap for long term. I hope no one gets too greedy here

 

[Vekke]

I think he's worth about 6.5 right now but mark value would put him at 7
and I think if he signs after his elc and scored another 40 he takes an 8.5 mill contract which I still think is high, but goals are a valuable thing

the jets are really close to building a stacked team fitting under the salary cap for long term. I hope no one gets too greedy here

Seriously 6.5M atm? Have you seen any games or red any news?

 

[Peggy]

Seriously 6.5M atm? Have you seen any games or red any news?

yupp. I just value players differently under a salary cap. if there was no salary cap then sure let's talk about crazy money and throw in 10 mil, but there's a salary cap

he's still not the jets best players and those players get paid under 7 million

byfuglien is the only player who's contract is over besides some short term contracts

I mean unless you plan on getting lucky with your elc contracts for the next 5 years

 

[YWGinYYZ]

There is very, very little likelihood of Laine signing @ $6.5 long term, whether he likes Winnipeg or not. Yes, cap management is important, but goal scorers get paid, especially someone that has so much potential ahead of him. See Ovie, Stamkos, etc.

 

[Peggy]

There is very, very little likelihood of Laine signing @ $6.5 long term, whether he likes Winnipeg or not. Yes, cap management is important, but goal scorers get paid, especially someone that has so much potential ahead of him. See Ovie, Stamkos, etc.

I don't think he will either

based off his current stats tho he's a 6.5 mil player as he's still on a learning curve

ehlers is getting paid 6.3 but is also under performing for where he's numbers should be but that's okay does a contract like that doesn't hurt the team

you can't just bet on full potential, also gotta consider regression or else you get stuck like Chicago

 

[YWGinYYZ]

based off his current stats tho he's a 6.5 mil player as he's still on a learning curve

That's not how contracts get signed. He's competing for the Rocket. At 19. He'll get paid, even if he's "learning".

Regression? I'll restate: he's 19. Regression from a high typically happens as players get older, not usually during their peak years. This is the timeframe of his contract coming off of his ELC.

Pay him now, BEFORE there's a downturn in his play when he gets older. His cap hit will become a smaller and smaller % of the Jets overall cap hit as the cap rises.

 

[Vekke]

yupp. I just value players differently under a
he's still not the jets best players and those players get paid under 7 million

If think talent wise there is maybe two young stars with more potential in NHL both have/will sign 10+. Winnipeg has never had a young superstar and salary is something else that Jets are used.

 

[PhilJets]

I don't think he will either

based off his current stats tho he's a 6.5 mil player as he's still on a learning curve

ehlers is getting paid 6.3 but is also under performing for where he's numbers should be but that's okay does a contract like that doesn't hurt the team

you can't just bet on full potential, also gotta consider regression or else you get stuck like Chicago

Sorry Ehlers is under performing?

 

[Aavco Cup]

what's inevitable? just because buffalo made a stupid signing they're gonna go off that example?
I'm not gonna look st players like eichel and think "oh eichel signed for 10 the laine should get 10"

no if laine cared about winning a cup hed think about taking a pay cut as well as jets a management

I have a feeling laine isn't gonna take full value but still take a pretty penny

I think he's worth about 6.5 right now but mark value would put him at 7
and I think if he signs after his elc and scored another 40 he takes an 8.5 mill contract which I still think is high, but goals are a valuable thing

the jets are really close to building a stacked team fitting under the salary cap for long term. I hope no one gets too greedy here

Sorry but the cat is out of the bag......it's not just Eichel....it's McDavid....it's Draisaitl.

Those are all RFA contracts that are used as comparables. There's no option of ignoring them just because you think they are stupid.

Like I said if Chevy plays hardball then Laine won't sign long term. His contract will expire and he'll become an RFA He'll sign a 1-2 yr bridge or even worse someone will sign him to an extreme offer sheet which we'll have to match. Even if that doesn't happen the leverage will move to Laine with arbitration rights

I don't know how you think playing silly with his contract is a good strategy. Pay him what the market says he's worth. If the Jets don't want to pay him then they may as well trade the guy.

 

[kelsier]

You said earlier "there really isn't any recency bias". But there's always recency bias around here!!
It seemed to me that there were a lot of armchair GMs offering huge amounts of money, and placing our franchise at some risk, based in part on a hot streak. That's not how I would operate.

Try this instead:

"We like you a lot, Patrik, and you seem happy here. We think you have Ovechkin-like potential, but our team--your team-- comes first. We think you can be part of a SC contender for years to come, but we need to keep Nikki, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor and Helle here too; maybe Trouba too, and maybe even offer Paul Stastny a UFA contract. You sort of like playing with him don't you? Well, we can't keep him and also pay you like McDavid. So, how about we offer you 60 million dollars over 8 years, 20 million over the first 2 years. Is that enough to keep you and your family happy?
Think about it....what, you've thought about it already?? You just want to play on a winner, score goals and play PlayStation with your good buds.....OK, great, sign here....."

Don't take this the wrong way but that's a two-way street. His agent would just encounter with a scent of sarcasm "yeah, he certainly has enjoyed playing with Little for the majority of his career". You are right about Stastny though, they really need to find a way to keep him. If not, here's to hoping Roslovic is ready for second line center duties next year. I think the Little contract will start seriously biting the team in the ars* in the coming years.

I think Hall is in the same ball park. Different player types but have both impacted the game at an elite level offensively. For a 3 to 5 year stretch Hall was 2nd to only Crosby in ES p/60. He was also an elite play driver at ES at the time of his deal, something Laine isn't yet. As I said I'd feel very comfortable with giving Laine a Hall type deal.

I don't agree with this at all. There's noway I would put Hall in the same ballpark with Laine, not even close. Lets look at their first two years (with Laine so far):

Hall 2010-11: 65 games and 42 points (22 + 20) with average TOI 18:13
Hall 2011-12: 61 games and 53 points (27 + 26) with average TOI 18:13

Laine 2016-17: 73 games and 63 points (36 + 28) with average TOI: 17:55
Laine 2017-18: 66 games and 61 points (38 +23) with average TOI: 16:33

Now lets think about these numbers a little. Patrik Laine has outscored Taylor Hall by a significant margin in goals alone while hitting the 30 goal barrier both of his seasons. Hall did not, granted that he did also play less games. Laine has also better PGP and P/60 on both seasons and hasn't even finished the second year yet. Nevermind what comes to point production especially on the second season, Laine's average ice time isn't even close to Hall's (nearly 2 minutes less). Should we value goals or assists more? Well I personally think goal scorers are far more valuable and far more harder to come by at this level (once in a generation or so). I didn't dig up any data on Hall's most frequent line mates during those years but I would take a wild guess with RNH and Eberle? For Laine, Ehlers and Little where he's shared pretty much no on ice chemistry with the latter who I think by now is his most common line mate (probably close with Ehlers). If one wanted to build a case for Taylor Hall over Laine, you could maybe make an argument of him being the better line driver during his first two seasons (as he is fast as hell), but at the same time you could make an argument of Laine being the better game breaker. I don't see them being equals however and Laine has always been the superior force.

So no, they are not really even all that close and if/when Laine breaks the 40 goal benchmark this season that will further separate them. Does anyone here seriously believe that prime Laine would be traded to Adam Larsson? Kid me not! As far as the contract comes I think it's Laine's bench who will dictate considering the market value for these young superstars has already been set and if the Jets want to fight, it will be really bad pr, but here's to hoping he will take some discount unlike McDavid and Eichel. He could cash in right now but I'm almost hoping he won't sign until the ELC is over so that they won't try to snowball him with low TOI at 18-19, making him mad even before entering the negotiation table (try get a discount from Laine playing him 16+ minutes a game in average by the third year - could turn out difficult).