Salary Cap: Laine's contract in 19/20

[Razamanaz]

Laine a go go to guy like a deadly blue-line-dancer-deadly-scorer and me like a lot as a fellow Finn. Well, what can I say more except!? Rock on Laine!

 

[Halberdier]

A month ago he was not worth any more than Ehlers, based on his 5v5 P/60 and defensive play.

That talk was so ridiculous back then -- avgardian ridiculous backed by some cherry picked and questionable stats and still wrong. There is a reason why it's not reasonable to compare P/60 from players like Brendan Lemieux playing couple of games to Laine playing 50 games. And if that CorsiRel -2% really made Laine bad defensively, why Wheeler (having all those Hart topics at that time) was having CorsiRel ~ -4%?

There is nothing wrong on his career 5-on-5 P/60 btw., quite the contrary. And his career 5-on-5 P/60 w/o Little is ridiculously high.

Stats, including WAR82 just love how this guy plays even though many posters don't (unless he scores so even them can see it).

 

[Laineux]

Eichel got 10 achieving absolutely nothing. If Laine hits 50 or wins the Richard it's hard to justify him not getting close to that. But somewhere between 8-9 would be my guess if he doesn't continue this ridiculous streak.

 

[Brominator]

I agree that there is a recency bias. I recall when many people on this board were saying we'd need to pay Buff 10M$. Laine is amazing and I'm a huge fan, but the numbers being thrown around are way high. Furthermore, I don't think we can pay any one player 10M$ and still be a contender. If that money is better spend elsewhere, then I would do it.

I agree. Kane and Toews $21M salary have pretty much relegated the hawks to mediocrity for the next few years. No one player should eat that much (10M+) of the cap.

Regarding how aggressive Laine's camp is in negotiations, a lot depends on how his agent plays it. These agents are, of course, really interested in maximizing their client's return. Mike Liut is his agent. Not sure how tough a negotiator he is...

 

[Wizard204]

What you described sounds very much like someone who is average defensively. Makes mistakes but has the basics down. Ehlers, Connor etc are pretty average as well.

How many snipers and offensive forwards are defensive juggernauts. His defensive game is fine and compared to other offensive players is at par. Also, his defensive play has not lead to as many goals against compared to the rest of the forwards on the team. Therefore trying to talk him down by stating his defensive game is average to bring is salary down is ridiculous.

Also, how can everybody on our team be average defensively but the team is doing so well

 

[scelaton]

There really isn't any recency bias imo. At the end of this year he will have back to back 35 plus goal seasons and a career ppg around .9. Not sure why people are bringing up Ehlers as his accomplishments when he signed his extension weren't in the same stratosphere as Laine's. Expecting Laine to come in around Ehlers deal is just not realistic as he's shown to be in a different class.

Less than a month ago he was tenth among regular forwards in ESP/60, unable to drive the play, making numerous defensive mistakes and had the acceleration of a supertanker. It's all there if you go back and read the threads...and at the time, some of his staunchest defenders were wanting Buff put on an ice flow. Now both of them are playing great, which just goes to show how many great players have their highs and lows. But offering $80M to a teenager based on a high is a very dangerous proposition.

 

[paragon]

He has had more goals than any other player since entering the league as an 18-year old. You guys are severely underselling him right now. Let me repeat that, he’s produced the most goals in the entire league since he entered it. How can those numbers be way high? I really hope he takes a team-friendly deal but what you guys are saying is a bit ridiculous.

Also people are throwing numbers like they mean nothing. 2M per year discount is 16M on full term. Not even wealthy people donate those kinds of sums carelessly. His agent also gets a share and he has all the incentive to make sure Patrik signs a smart deal, which is as much money as the Jets are willing to give.

I don't think the team is obligated to pay him 10M per year. He's still a RFA and they could lowball him at least until he can file for arbitration. But that would risk him leaving as soon as he becomes UFA.

It might show good faith by paying him 10M. If the Jets did that it would take a real cold blooded guy to abandon the franchise like Parise or Suter did. From a business perspective 10M is not even that much because superstars like Laine have a lot more value than just his value on ice. He's gonna sell more shirts than anyone on the franchise before him and he can put Winnipeg on the map almost alone. That's worth a lot to a franchise.

Also for those worried about recency bias, just wait until how much recency bias there is after his Conn Smythe performance in the summer.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I think he'll get somewhere between 8-10 million and will be worth every penny. Teams need superstar players to put them over the top (except Vegas maybe?). It's not worth fighting him to save a million bucks on a contract imo.

 

[surixon]

Less than a month ago he was tenth among regular forwards in ESP/60, unable to drive the play, making numerous defensive mistakes and had the acceleration of a supertanker. It's all there if you go back and read the threads...and at the time, some of his staunchest defenders were wanting Buff put on an ice flow. Now both of them are playing great, which just goes to show how many great players have their highs and lows. But offering $80M to a teenager based on a high is a very dangerous proposition.

No one is offering him a contract based on a 10 to 15 game sample size, not sure why you are bringing his hot streak up. He will be offered a deal based on his entire body of work which includes periods of hot and cold play. Shocking a 19 year old has some consistency issues. As I said he will have back to back seasons of being top 10 in goals in the entire league and likely back to back years of being top 30 in points.

I'm not sure why you are trying to use a cold period to diminish the kid. 150 games will e a sufficient enough sample size to smooth out both hot and cold stretches.

Some number:

Is third on the team with regards to points per 60 (3rd last year)
Tops in primary points per 60 (Tops last year)
Second on the team with ICF/60 (5th last year)

It seems to me he has been elite offensively at 5 on 5, but as shown by his strong ICF/60 perhaps his cold streak was just due to some bad luck more then anything.

He is a better player this season, he has improved with regards to generating chances, his possession metrics have also improved. He is also still scoring at an elite level. The kid has a pretty darn good body of work.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

agree. Kane and Toews $21M salary have pretty much relegated the hawks to mediocrity for the next few years. No one player should eat that much (10M+) of the cap

Kane and Toews' mega extensions were signed after they had already won two Cups, and they kicked in the season after they won their third. Hawks fans shouldn't be complaining about those deals no matter what they look like now. They're biting the hands that brought them three Cups in six years and if the team is in cap hell now its too bad, that's the price you pay for success in the cap world. Same goes for the Kings and Kopitar's eight figure AAV that he got after two Cup wins (Brown and Gaborik made bank too).

Problem with teams today is they're paying stars champion money before anything is won. McDavid at least has some individual hardware to help somewhat justify his big contract. If Laine were to win the Rocket at 19 then the Jets will probably be looking at an eight figure deal also. The precedent has already been set and elite talent comes at an elite price.

 

[M C D A V I D]

If he's the best goal scorer in the league at that time he'll get 10-11mill. (= or slightly more than Eichel)

 

[M C D A V I D]

Kane and Toews' mega extensions were signed after they had already won two Cups, and they kicked in the season after they won their third. Hawks fans shouldn't be complaining about those deals no matter what they look like now. They're biting the hands that brought them three Cups in six years and if the team is in cap hell now its too bad, that's the price you pay for success in the cap world. Same goes for the Kings and Kopitar's eight figure AAV that he got after two Cup wins (Brown and Gaborik made bank too).

Problem with teams today is they're paying stars champion money before anything is won. McDavid at least has some individual hardware to help somewhat justify his big contract. If Laine were to win the Rocket at 19 then the Jets will probably be looking at an eight figure deal also. The precedent has already been set and elite talent comes at an elite price.

Eichel is the precedent for Matthews and Laine, I think.

 

[Gm0ney]

Ovechkin's contract equivalent under an $80M cap would carry a $13.5M AAV.

I'd say Laine's equivalent to Ovi's AAV would be $9.6M if he signed this summer (just based on a bunch of back-of-the-napkin adjustments comparing the two players' first 2 ELC years).

 

[jrs]

Somewhere between Tarasenko and Eichel x8

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Pay him a bazillion. He's only 19. Imagine. He will be worth it.

 

[10Ducky10]

Everyone should remember that he has 4 years after next year until he becomes an unrestricted free agent. If we are buying 4 years of UFA and 4 years of RFA, he should come in under 8m.

 

[10Ducky10]

Eichel is the precedent for Matthews and Laine, I think.

Eichel got too much.

 

[KingBogo]

I think those guessing between $8 - $10 M are in the ball park depending on a few factors. Matthews will set the ceiling and I think he gets what Eichel got. So $10 is the high end. After that is how the rest of Laine's season plays out. Does he remain on a tear or does he flatten out. In the playoffs does the scoring continue or drop off, or does he raise it another level? After that is how badly he wants to get every last cent Vs. something a little more manageable to sign the other talent around him. So assuming a 8 year deal I'll guess $8.5 - $9 M AAV with a big signing bonus and a little lockout protection. I just think Laine will side a little bit more towards being able to keep a contending team together over getting every last cent.

 

[scelaton]

No one is offering him a contract based on a 10 to 15 game sample size, not sure why you are bringing his hot streak up.....

You said earlier "there really isn't any recency bias". But there's always recency bias around here!!
It seemed to me that there were a lot of armchair GMs offering huge amounts of money, and placing our franchise at some risk, based in part on a hot streak. That's not how I would operate.

Try this instead:

"We like you a lot, Patrik, and you seem happy here. We think you have Ovechkin-like potential, but our team--your team-- comes first. We think you can be part of a SC contender for years to come, but we need to keep Nikki, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor and Helle here too; maybe Trouba too, and maybe even offer Paul Stastny a UFA contract. You sort of like playing with him don't you? Well, we can't keep him and also pay you like McDavid. So, how about we offer you 60 million dollars over 8 years, 20 million over the first 2 years. Is that enough to keep you and your family happy?
Think about it....what, you've thought about it already?? You just want to play on a winner, score goals and play PlayStation with your good buds.....OK, great, sign here....."

 

[PhilJets]

8 years is what i hope he signs for. But can be 7 yrs.

8.0M is what i want
10.M probably his worth in the market
9.0M or around hopefully not in the higher range is most likely he will sign for. If he keeps on humilating goalies til end of the playoff we don't know

 

[csk]

Give him a truckload of blank cheques.

 

[surixon]

You said earlier "there really isn't any recency bias". But there's always recency bias around here!!
It seemed to me that there were a lot of armchair GMs offering huge amounts of money, and placing our franchise at some risk, based in part on a hot streak. That's not how I would operate.

Try this instead:

"We like you a lot, Patrik, and you seem happy here. We think you have Ovechkin-like potential, but our team--your team-- comes first. We think you can be part of a SC contender for years to come, but we need to keep Nikki, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor and Helle here too; maybe Trouba too, and maybe even offer Paul Stastny a UFA contract. You sort of like playing with him don't you? Well, we can't keep him and also pay you like McDavid. So, how about we offer you 60 million dollars over 8 years, 20 million over the first 2 years. Is that enough to keep you and your family happy?
Think about it....what, you've thought about it already?? You just want to play on a winner, score goals and play PlayStation with your good buds.....OK, great, sign here....."

I don't think there is any, most people see a player who has been at the top end of the curve as far as teenagers entering the league have been the last 15 years. Sure maybe some are giddy due to his streak but his entire body of work is elite for his age. I think most are trying to be realistic in what he will command based on a number of contracts given to elite young players the last few years. I fully expect that Chevy as he tends to do will grind out the negotiation and will likely get him for something that looks more reasonable then say Echiel and Draisitel but he is still going to set the bar as far as our young talent and it will be a decent amount more than either Ehlers or Scheifele got.

 

[HPsauce]

Just saying... Probably $9.29 mil per x 8

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I'm gonna post this valuable resource for Chevy & Co. right here:

Amish Negotiations Settle Conflicts [journal article review] | Peaceful Societies

Looks like steady negotiation without conflict is the way to go:

The common element among [the Amish/star winger Patrik Laine] in settling disputes is that they are nearly as opposed to confrontations in courtrooms as they are to fighting in any other way. They are strongly opposed to hostilities of any kind, so they try to find other ways to handle contentious issues.

I read the whole article.... Interesting stuff.

Not sure why I did that.

 

[Peggy]

Like it or not the bar has been set for high end RFA’s It is the current market and you can’t ignore those deals. They are the comparable now

it doesn't work that when you're a smart general manager
you don't let other crappy gms decide how to fit your team under a salary cap