Proposal: LA - CGY

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
To LA
LW Andrew Mangiapane
RD Travis Hamonic


To CGY
RW Tyler Toffoli

Why for L.A.
Complete that second D pair that's been broken since the days of Doughty/Voynov/Mitchell/Muzzin.
Additionally add a stud forward prospect with true 30+ goal upside who fits the new direction of the league (speed / tenacity) to help with a quick retool.

Why for Calgary
take a stab at a bounce back from a player who seems to be declining as the league gets faster, who can still fit a huge role on their team's power play and middle six.
 

Addison Rae

Registered User
Jun 2, 2009
58,532
10,753
Vancouver
LA is slow as molasses the last thing they should be doing is adding a player like Hamonic. They should be adding pace to their lineup and defenders capable of transitioning the puck.

How on earth do you think a team that just scored 3 goals in a playoff series should be trading one of their best goal scores for a defensive defender?
 
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OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
LA is slow as molasses the last thing they should be doing is adding a player like Hamonic. They should be adding pace to their lineup and defenders capable of transitioning the puck.

Um, you realize Hamonic is a solid-skating puckrushing defenseman with a solid first pass, right?

How on earth do you think a team that just scored 3 goals in a playoff series should be trading one of their best goal scores for a defensive defender?

Well, I mean, if that playoff series is all that matters, we're talking about a player who scored 0 goals and 0 assists in said playoff series. Who happens to be slow as molasses as you so put it.

And um, you realize that Mangiapane at age 21 led the entire AHL in PPG right? We're not talking about a throw-in prospect here. We're talking about one of the better left wing prospects in the entire NHL who unfortunately got drafted by a team that has, if nothing else, some really good left wingers on its depth chart.

Toffoli fits in Calgary. Mangiapane doesn't, but could easily fit in L.A. - and might be the better player as soon as next season. I'd be willing to swallow that for the sole reason that Mangiapane will never get a proper shot here.
 

McVirginOil

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
3,078
1,751
Flames fans are overselling Hamonic here, he’s basically a boneless Kris Russell.
 

Addison Rae

Registered User
Jun 2, 2009
58,532
10,753
Vancouver
Um, you realize Hamonic is a solid-skating puckrushing defenseman with a solid first pass, right?
Oh come on, Hamonic had 11 points this year and notoriously has poor underlying numbers.

He absolutely not the player LA needs to be targeting. Trading one of their best goal scorers for this player is absurd considering what we just witnessed in the playoffs.

LA also already has Doughty and Martinez on the right side, this is not a well thought out proposal.
 
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OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Oh come on, Hamonic had 11 points this year and notoriously has poor underlying numbers.

Hamonic's not an offensive defenseman - but he's certainly a defender capable of transitioning the puck and adding tempo. As for underlying numbers they were perfectly solid this year at 50.9%. His shot generation numbers are great and his shot suppression numbers are perfectly reasonable given his deployment. He's not a star and he's not an offensive defenseman, but he's a solid defenseman. And let's not pretend his offensive outputs this season weren't uncharacteristic.

He absolutely not the player LA needs to be targeting. Trading one of their best goal scorers for this player is absurd considering what we just witnessed in the playoffs.
You're not trading Toffoli for Hamonic. You're trading Toffoli for Mangiapane and Hamonic. Not an insignificant difference.

LA also already has Doughty and Martinez on the right side, this is not a well thought out proposal.

Martinez plays the right out of necessity. When they were elite he played the left.
 

McVirginOil

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
3,078
1,751
Here is Hamonic’s stats this year at 5v5 in percentiles.

537D862804F5448A8E3589BFB36798E0-0:0


As you can see, a lot of ice time but overall bad individually. Corsi% is good but relative to team mates it’s awful, suggesting that Calgary has been a good Corsi team and Hamonic has been benefiting from that. Is quality comp. is in the 60th percentile among Dmen, or just above average, and he has the benefit of having good team mates with a high percentile in Quality teammates. Overall, a meh dman.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Corsi% is good but relative to team mates it’s awful, suggesting that Calgary has been a good Corsi team and Hamonic has been benefiting from that.

....Maybe it's awful relative to teammates because the Giordano-Hamilton pairing posted an absolutely unfair and ridiculous 56.99% Score-Adjusted CF% together in over 950 minutes together.

That's the outlier, not the rest of the entire roster who were solid in puck possession.

There's a difference between being a possession liability and being an average possession player on a team with one above average top pairing and one sheltered third pairing. I know the underlying stats perfectly fine, but I can actually interpret them.
 

McVirginOil

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
3,078
1,751
....Maybe it's awful relative to teammates because the Giordano-Hamilton pairing posted an absolutely unfair and ridiculous 56.99% Score-Adjusted CF% together in over 950 minutes together.

That's the outlier, not the rest of the entire roster who were solid in puck possession.

There's a difference between being a possession liability and being an average possession player on a team with one above average top pairing and one sheltered third pairing. I know the underlying stats perfectly fine, but I can actually interpret them.
Again I don’t know if you read me right, but the relative stats are relative to teamMATES not relative to team. So Gio and Hamilton have way less of an impact here.
 
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FameFlame069

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Oct 2, 2017
2,992
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Just going to warn the LA posters here, OKG is probably the most biased fan for the Flames hf group, I'm also pretty sure he's the one who's said Janks was our future #1C? Or was it Bennett? For myself, I don't think LA needs more defensive players (Hamonic), I'd love TT, but he's not getting traded in the Pacific, Hamonic also had what 4-5 teams he WANTED to go to for family reasons, yet you're pushing him farther away from his family? Come on dude, he hasn't even been here for a calendar year yet
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Again I don’t know if you read me right, but the relative stats are relative to teamMATES not relative to team. So Gio and Hamilton have way less of an impact here.

You're grasping at straws. Here are the five pairings that logged 100+ minutes together for the Flames:

Giordano-Hamilton - 57.58% - 1258.95 TOI
Brodie-Hamonic - 51.11% - 1063.08 TOI
Kulak-Stone - 50.81% - 661.88 TOI
Brodie-Stone - 48.78% - 165.95 TOI
Bartkowski-Stone - 42.14% 113.38 TOI

First of all it's clear that the top two pairings played together almost exclusively all season. And that top pairing posted outlier results. Second it's clear that the third pairing posted worse results than the second pairing - despite playing against significantly weaker opponents.

Second it's clear, regardless of the stats, that Stone is the worst of the top six, and Bartkowski is the worst defenseman on the roster. When bumped up to a top four spot with Brodie, Stone dragged Brodie down almost two percent relative to Hamonic.

Now let's look at whatever pairings spent 50-100 minutes together

Brodie-Hamilton - 49.86% - 88.47 TOI

So despite Hamilton being the best corsi dman on the team, this pairing posted worse results than Brodie-Hamonic. It's almost as if the Giordano-Hamilton pairing is just the kind of pairing that just works. what about Hamonic?

Giordano-Hamonic - 52.4% - 77.35 TOI

So of the seven pairings examined, this would have been the second best possession pairing on the Flames roster. Lo And Behold Travis Hamonic would make two of the top three! They do slightly edge out Brodie-Hamonic in possession, which is expected as Giordano is a possession beast Dman.

Next:

After TJ Brodie got hurt, Hamonic was paired with an actual possession black hole who was moved to his offwing because veteran logic

Stone-Hamonic - 40.5% - 63.5 TOI

This was a pairing that didn't work. This makes sense, because the Flames don't have a possession-dominant forward group, they are a team who post strong possession numbers because their Top 4 Dmen + Hamonic are strong puck movers. Michael Stone is not a puck moving defenseman and he is not a top four defenseman AND he is not a left defenseman. We observed earlier his effect on TJ Brodie and I never said Hamonic is as strong a puck mover as the excellent TJ Brodie, even though he is a strong puck mover.

Finally,

Kulak-Hamonic - 51.57% - 66.58 TOI

WIth the failure of Stone in a top four role, the rookie Dman Brett Kulak finds himself in a top four role, and lo and behold, even with a rookie partner, Travis Hamonic posts another corsi% that would rank in the top four CF% of the nine I've posted.

So to reiterate the four best defense pairings the Flames could roll by corsi% were:

Giordano-Hamilton (Large sample size)
Giordano-Hamonic (small sample size)
Kulak-Hamonic (small sample size)
Brodie-Hamonic (Large sample size)

But keep telling me Hamonic's underlyings suck. Or maybe just read the definition of skew.
 
Last edited:

Addison Rae

Registered User
Jun 2, 2009
58,532
10,753
Vancouver
Hamonic's not an offensive defenseman - but he's certainly a defender capable of transitioning the puck and adding tempo. As for underlying numbers they were perfectly solid this year at 50.9%. His shot generation numbers are great and his shot suppression numbers are perfectly reasonable given his deployment. He's not a star and he's not an offensive defenseman, but he's a solid defenseman. And let's not pretend his offensive outputs this season weren't uncharacteristic.


You're not trading Toffoli for Hamonic. You're trading Toffoli for Mangiapane and Hamonic. Not an insignificant difference.



Martinez plays the right out of necessity. When they were elite he played the left.

Hamonic’s counting and underlying numbers have been below average the past two years, citing a players CF% without context is pretty much useless. His CorsiRel was poor this year and he clearly isn’t the type of player LA should target in a trade for Tyler Toffoli.

You keep trying to rationalize this proposal but it’s not good, I think you’re generally a pretty good poster but you’re off base here.
 

McVirginOil

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
3,078
1,751
You're grasping at straws. Here are the five pairings that logged 100+ minutes together for the Flames:

Giordano-Hamilton - 57.58% - 1258.95 TOI
Brodie-Hamonic - 51.11% - 1063.08 TOI
Kulak-Stone - 50.81% - 661.88 TOI
Brodie-Stone - 48.78% - 165.95 TOI
Bartkowski-Stone - 42.14% 113.38 TOI

First of all it's clear that the top two pairings played together almost exclusively all season. And that top pairing posted outlier results. Second it's clear that the third pairing posted worse results than the second pairing - despite playing against significantly weaker opponents.

Second it's clear, regardless of the stats, that Stone is the worst of the top six, and Bartkowski is the worst defenseman on the roster. When bumped up to a top four spot with Brodie, Stone dragged Brodie down almost two percent relative to Hamonic.

Now let's look at whatever pairings spent 50-100 minutes together

Brodie-Hamilton - 49.86% - 88.47 TOI

So despite Hamilton being the best corsi dman on the team, this pairing posted worse results than Brodie-Hamonic. It's almost as if the Giordano-Hamilton pairing is just the kind of pairing that just works. what about Hamonic?

Giordano-Hamonic - 52.4% - 77.35 TOI

So of the seven pairings examined, this would have been the second best possession pairing on the Flames roster. Lo And Behold Travis Hamonic would make two of the top three! They do slightly edge out Brodie-Hamonic in possession, which is expected as Giordano is a possession beast Dman.

Next:

After TJ Brodie got hurt, Hamonic was paired with an actual possession black hole who was moved to his offwing because veteran logic

Stone-Hamonic - 40.5% - 63.5 TOI

This was a pairing that didn't work. This makes sense, because the Flames don't have a possession-dominant forward group, they are a team who post strong possession numbers because their Top 4 Dmen + Hamonic are strong puck movers. Michael Stone is not a puck moving defenseman and he is not a top four defenseman AND he is not a left defenseman. We observed earlier his effect on TJ Brodie and I never said Hamonic is as strong a puck mover as the excellent TJ Brodie, even though he is a strong puck mover.

Finally,

Kulak-Hamonic - 51.57% - 66.58 TOI

WIth the failure of Stone in a top four role, the rookie Dman Brett Kulak finds himself in a top four role, and lo and behold, even with a rookie partner, Travis Hamonic posts another corsi% that would rank in the top four CF% of the nine I've posted.

So to reiterate the four best defense pairings the Flames could roll by corsi% were:

Giordano-Hamilton (Large sample size)
Giordano-Hamonic (small sample size)
Kulak-Hamonic (small sample size)
Brodie-Hamonic (Large sample size)

But keep telling me Hamonic's underlyings suck. Or maybe just read the definition of skew.

First off, it’s easy to be in the top 4 of something as a Calgary dman when the depth is consistently shit.


Second off, I don’t think you know that RelTM and RelTeam are different stats so I advise you to read this before answering again: Revisiting Relative Shot Metrics – Part 1


Also I don’t know why you have Hamonic in small sample sizes even considered when it’s not even over 100 minutes, now that’s straw grasping for some good results.
 

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