Komarov worst forward for offense? (PP discussion)

[Menzinger]

The fan turn is interesting. I don’t know what specific issue it was but objectively speaking, his play wasn’t an issue at the beginning of the season.

The line was clicking with the two of them at least and there were articles in the paper about how they (Kadri and Leo) feed off each other.

Marleau was the odd one out.

Then we had a massive slump that lasted a quarter of a season. Not really impacting Marleau who was scoring at his current pace. And not really impacting Leo who was also scoring at his seasons’ pace. The other member of the line was impacted significantly and we needed that line to get going.

So the focus of some fans went on Leo. Missing some chances didn’t help his cause but again he was producing at the same rate as when fans were loving it earlier in the season.

Frustration with Babcock probably put more of spotlight on him too. Curious decisions, games that didn’t end well... all of that. He became the poster boy for a team that doesn’t have much going wrong with it.

Put Leo in the middle of 2 contentious issues in the fan base, Kadri and Babcock, and you have a perfect focal point.

Compare Leo of this season to his last few seasons and there is a clear as day decline across the board - and a pretty significant one at that. The fact that his linemates were still performing well doesn’t excuse or should cause us to ignore his dip in playing ability.

Babcock finally saw this too, and out him in a role better suited to his current level of play (4th line).

 

[Menzinger]

This is the first thread to offer criticism? And apparently using the wrong stats and expectations to do so (Leo is expected to be an offensive forward is he?)

If you get top 9 minutes on a good team you should be expected to perform offensively (he was even getting PP time....). One of the reasons he’s been bumped to the 4th line by Babcock.

Edit: typo

 

[Suntouchable13]

My only other comment is that he was loved here and it seemed like almost yesterday.

One thing he did was play a big man's game in a smaller frame. Once that drops off (and it has), it's hard to be that big man.

I think those that are dog piling him now are unfair. They either thought he was a 20 goal scorer or they want to see skilled wingers in his place (NHL '18 style).

If this thread is about Kapanen then I'll be angry.

I guess it is unfair only because the coach thinks this guy can play anywhere in the lineup. I have never seen a coach so in love with such a below average player before.

 

[ponder]

Komarov and Hyman should both be on the 4th line... playing maybe 6 - 8 minutes of 5vs5 ... and then saving them for the PK.

Playing them limited minutes keeps them fresh for the PK. It allows them to skate hard, hit, fore-check, and give 110% effort for their shifts because they will have a longer recovery time. Then we can start giving Matthews over 20 minutes a game.

There’s a huge difference between Hyman and Komarov. Hyman is great on the cycle, excellent at puck recovery, decent in transition, and fast. He’s often a significant part of dominating offensive shifts. Komarov is weak in transition, weak on the cycle, slow, and just an anchor in general offensively.

Hyman is also way more productive at even strength. He’s 4th on the team in ES points, and not far behind 3rd (Marner). Komarov is 13th, just 2 points ahead of guys like Martin/Borgman/Moore, and 3 points ahead of Polak.

Hyman does play with better linemates, but Komarov has played a tonne with Kadri/Marleau, and pretty much kills the line offensively.

I agree with Komarov on the 4th line, but Hyman is actually quite effective at ES, I like him with Matthews/Nylander.

 

[Pookie]

If you get top 9 minutes on a good team you should be expected to perform offensively (he was even getting PP time....). One of the reasons he’s been bumped to the 4th line by Babcock.

Edit: typo

Hmmm. Stats seems to say he’s 18th in terms of ES TOI per game. Plays about 30 seconds of the PP per game. The rest of what you claim are top 9 mins are over 2:38 of PK time a game.

This is what you expected to perform offensively?

 

[Pookie]

Compare Leo of this season to his last few seasons and there is a clear as day decline across the board - and a pretty significant one at that. The fact that his linemates were still performing well doesn’t excuse or should cause us to ignore his dip in playing ability.

Babcock finally saw this too, and out him in a role better suited to his current level of play (4th line).

I missed when you called him out at the beginning of the season when his line was hot.

You were calling for Leo to be demoted back then? Or just when it impacted a different player you favour?

I’ve got no issues if he plays on the 4th line. He, along with JVR and Bozak and Polak and Hunwick, should have been moved last trade deadline IMO.

So if you and Babcock are seeing a better suited role, why the need to continue to pile on the 4th and leading PK specialist we have?

 

[ponder]

Hmmm. Stats seems to say he’s 18th in terms of ES TOI per game. Plays about 30 seconds of the PP per game. The rest of what you claim are top 9 mins are over 2:38 of PK time a game.

This is what you expected to perform offensively?

Komarov is 8th among Leafs forwards in ES TOI/GP, ahead of guys like JvR, Brown and Kapanen. He’s played some time on the 4th line, but so have Nylander and Marner. He’s played primarily on the 2nd line, with Marleau and Kadri. He has clearly been playing in a top 9 role for us most nights.

Re: his PP time, he’s averaging 39 seconds per game. Not much, but still too much, he should be at basically 0. Kapanen averages 2 seconds per game, and is much better. Hyman has a similar “even strength and PK” role to Komarov, and averages 9 seconds per game. There’s really no reason for Leo to be seeing PP (or 3v3 OT) time.

 

[Menzinger]

I missed when you called him out at the beginning of the season when his line was hot.

You were calling for Leo to be demoted back then? Or just when it impacted a different player you favour?

I’ve got no issues if he plays on the 4th line. He, along with JVR and Bozak and Polak and Hunwick, should have been moved last trade deadline IMO.

So if you and Babcock are seeing a better suited role, why the need to continue to pile on the 4th and leading PK specialist we have?

I haven’t been happy with Komarovs offensive production given his usage for quite some time (still think he’s a useful player as. 4th liner).


This thread isn’t discussing his PK contributions, it’s his offensive game. If you don’t like the content of it, you could also just ignore it

 

[rent free]

idk how people can vote no. plays die on his stick. he can't shoot, he can't pass. i think he's on the pp because babcock wants his offensive numbers to go up because he knows he sucks offensively

 

[MR4]

I voted no because he's saving it for the playoffs.

I hope you aren't serious.

My only other comment is that he was loved here and it seemed like almost yesterday.

One thing he did was play a big man's game in a smaller frame. Once that drops off (and it has), it's hard to be that big man.

I think those that are dog piling him now are unfair. They either thought he was a 20 goal scorer or they want to see skilled wingers in his place (NHL '18 style).

If this thread is about Kapanen then I'll be angry.

He was a good role player before, now he's pretty trash. No room for sentimentality in trying to win. And having a 0 offensive skill player get big minutes is a hindrance in trying to win, the bottom 6 needs to be decent on both sides of the ice, not just one.

 

[Pookie]

Komarov is 8th among Leafs forwards in ES TOI/GP, ahead of guys like JvR, Brown and Kapanen. He’s played some time on the 4th line, but so have Nylander and Marner. He’s played primarily on the 2nd line, with Marleau and Kadri. He has clearly been playing in a top 9 role for us most nights.

Re: his PP time, he’s averaging 39 seconds per game. Not much, but still too much, he should be at basically 0. Kapanen averages 2 seconds per game, and is much better. Hyman has a similar “even strength and PK” role to Komarov, and averages 9 seconds per game. There’s really no reason for Leo to be seeing PP (or 3v3 OT) time.

Just to give perspective, he’s 23 seconds ahead of “guys like JVR” in ES TOI. That’s a shift.

Given that he plays shut down roles and we have held the lead, an extra shift a game over JVR isn’t unreasonable. Nor would we prefer JVR play that role instead. Nor are we expecting offensive production when tasked with preventing goals.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

Ya definately up there

 

[IPS]

Komarov has a P/60 of 0.59 this season.

He's in the bottom 5 for P/60 for any forward in the league with >500 minutes of ice-time.

The worst P/60 forward in the league, with >~630 minutes of ice-time.

Statistically, he is the worst offensive forward in the league at his usage (i.e. >650 minutes of accumulated ice-time).

Basically, it's no overstatement to say he's been the worst offensive forward in the league this year.

These stats say it all, and the eye test lines up with it perfectly.

Anyone who doesn't acknowledge this is being completely dishonest.

 

[firstemperor]

P/60 includes his SH TOI, does it not? That's a huge amount of time that no player should be expected to be scoring, and guys like Hyman (or Granlund or Watson) see that stat take a huge hit as a result as well. Not saying Leo is necessarily some offensive dynamo who's simply having their stats misinterpreted, but that particular stat is definitely going to paint an uglier picture than it should.

And for the record, your statistics are incorrect, and your rankings are inaccurate - His P/60 is 0.89 (NHL.com - Stats), and is higher than Paajarvi's, Watson's, Granlund's, Girgensons', J. Larsson's, Richardson's... All of whom fit your criteria of >650 minutes of TOI this season (NHL.com - Stats), and all of whom play less SH TOI/G than Komarov does (NHL.com - Stats). Where are you getting your numbers from?

Also, isn't Jim Hiller our Powerplay coach? I don't know how much that means he controls the PP entirely, or how much Babs still has a say, or how exactly that works... Regardless, I do agree that throwing Leo out with the extra man isn't exactly the best way to try and solidify that goal.

Edit: Leo's played ~898 EV/PP minutes this year, equaling almost exactly 15 games. His 15 EVP/PPP give him an EV/PP P/60 of exactly 1.00 - Not a wild jump, but you can see how easily a straight-up P/60 value can lack a lot of context.

I'm using Corsica and just checked against the stats I posted which wore correct.

According to Corsica, MPS, Granlund, Nordstrom, and Drew Stafford are the only 4 players that post a lower P/60 than Komarov >500 minutes TOI played. Everyone else including Richardson, Girgs all post significantly higher P/60's. Once you filter for >650 minutes, it's just Komaorov.

Komarov is actually the outlier in terms of TOI, even if you include his SH TOI, he averages around ~800 minutes. Everyone else is roughly around ~600 minutes. I don't think it's completely fair to say that his PK duties affect this number (it does) but every player on that list is also playing significant SH minutes for their respective teams as well....he just gets way more ice-time in general than all of them..

Ultimately, he's still getting way too much usage at ES given how poor he is offensively- almost to the point that he is literally just playing defensive hockey most of the time he's on the ice.

One more point- no player on that list has the quality of linemates that Komarov has played with most of the year in Kadri and Marleau.

MPS plays on the 4th line with the Sens, Nordstrom on the 4th line with the Canes, Stafford on the 4th line with the Devils.

 

[IBeL34f]

Given the shutdown usage of the Kadri line when Leo was on it, as well as Babcock's desire to really drive home the necessity of work ethic and responsibility throughout the roster at this point in the rebuild, I had no problem with Leo being played where he was.

Having said that, he has unequivocally been our worst offensive producer this year. If we were looking to simply score goals all game long, he'd have no place near the current roster. However, I don't think letting our 20-year-olds play pond hockey all year is how our management team and coaching staff intend to develop that Winning Culture we all want, and so guys like Leo draw in providing usefulness elsewhere.

 

[IBeL34f]

I'm using Corsica and just checked against the stats I posted which wore correct.

According to Corsica, MPS, Granlund, Nordstrom, and Drew Stafford are the only 4 players that post a lower P/60 than Komarov >500 minutes TOI played. Everyone else including Richardson, Girgs all post significantly higher P/60's. Once you filter for >650 minutes, it's just Komaorov.

Komarov is actually the outlier in terms of TOI, even if you include his SH TOI, he averages around ~800 minutes. Everyone else is roughly around ~600 minutes. I don't think it's completely fair to say that his PK duties affect this number (it does) but every player on that list is also playing significant SH minutes for their respective teams as well....he just gets way more ice-time in general than all of them..

Ultimately, he's still getting way too much usage at ES given how poor he is offensively- almost to the point that he is literally just playing defensive hockey most of the time he's on the ice.

One more point- no player on that list has the quality of linemates that Komarov has played with most of the year in Kadri and Marleau.

MPS plays on the 4th line with the Sens, Nordstrom on the 4th line with the Canes, Stafford on the 4th line with the Devils.

Don't know what to tell ya, except that I'm pretty sure those Corsica numbers are wrong.

QuantHockey (2017‑2018 NHL Forward Scoring Leaders) shows the same numbers as the NHL.com stats I posted earlier.

Regarding QoT, I agree about Kadri and Marleau. Kadri wasn't doing anybody any favours with his puck-luck during that slump, though (couldn't buy a point, despite that line looking dangerous on a lot of occasions). Offensively, Leo is, without a doubt, the worst Maple Leaf Forward this year, and, if the lines were created based solely on production, he should be seeing no ice time at all with the current roster.

 

[FlareKnight]

A bit sad how far he's fallen off from a couple years ago. Same amount of games played as that season but 14 fewer goals and 20 fewer points. Not a terrible fourth line option, but wow he's the worst forward for offense. Should be nowhere near a powerplay. If the only purpose is to throw him in front of the net, I'm not sure that's a great plan. Doesn't have the hands to tip the puck. Put someone else there.

 

[firstemperor]

Don't know what to tell ya, except that I'm pretty sure those Corsica numbers are wrong.

QuantHockey (2017‑2018 NHL Forward Scoring Leaders) shows the same numbers as the NHL.com stats I posted earlier.

Regarding QoT, I agree about Kadri and Marleau. Kadri wasn't doing anybody any favours with his puck-luck during that slump, though (couldn't buy a point, despite that line looking dangerous on a lot of occasions). Offensively, Leo is, without a doubt, the worst Maple Leaf Forward this year, and, if the lines were created based solely on production, he should be seeing no ice time at all with the current roster.

I could buy the good pro argument but I think as the season starts dwindling now and we begin to enter the playoffs, it's time to start optimizing the lineup. It may not be at that point yet (this is a matter of contention, for some fans, they have felt it's hit that point already or long overdue), but I think Babcock needs to get his act together and start gearing up for it because ultimately, Komarov is not productive enough at the usage he's been getting.

Furthermore (besides the optimization argument), it would do well for the younger guys on this team, rather than pending UFA veterans, to get thrown in the fire a bit to end the year and develop some underpinnings for success long-term. I understand there are ulterior circumstances (like trying to keep the cap-hit of some of the young guys down) but we're reaching a breaking point where it's starting to matter less in the grand scheme , given there's only about ~15 games left in the season until the playoffs. So I'm projecting a bit here but I'm talking.....maybe giving Kapanen a chance playing up in the lineup (which we saw a bit of last night)...or on PP unit #2 which has been god awful (and considering moving guys like Marleau off of it, who haven't done anything all year on it).

Or to a lesser extent, giving Nylander extended reps at C with Matthews out. To me, this seems like the opportune time.

As per quality of linemates, Kadri's streakiness might have had some part to play but ultimately, Komarov was still playing with far, far superior linemates than the aforementioned guys, which speaks more about his quality and usage than anything.

 

[ottomaddox]

I hope you aren't serious.

He was a good role player before, now he's pretty trash. No room for sentimentality in trying to win. And having a 0 offensive skill player get big minutes is a hindrance in trying to win, the bottom 6 needs to be decent on both sides of the ice, not just one.

One could easily copy and paste this comment and put it in the Plekanec thread.

 

[IBeL34f]

I could buy the good pro argument but I think as the season starts dwindling now and we begin to enter the playoffs, it's time to start optimizing the lineup. It may not be at that point yet (this is a matter of contention, for some fans, they have felt it's hit that point already or long overdue), but I think Babcock needs to get his act together and start gearing up for it because ultimately, Komarov is not productive enough at the usage he's been getting.

Furthermore (besides the optimization argument), it would do well for the younger guys on this team, rather than pending UFA veterans, to get thrown in the fire a bit to end the year and develop some underpinnings for success long-term. I understand there are ulterior circumstances (like trying to keep the cap-hit of some of the young guys down) but we're reaching a breaking point where it's starting to matter less in the grand scheme , given there's only about ~15 games left in the season until the playoffs. So I'm projecting a bit here but I'm talking.....maybe giving Kapanen a chance playing up in the lineup (which we saw a bit of last night)...or on PP unit #2 which has been god awful (and considering moving guys like Marleau off of it, who haven't done anything all year on it).

Or to a lesser extent, giving Nylander extended reps at C with Matthews out. To me, this seems like the opportune time.

As per quality of linemates, Kadri's streakiness might have had some part to play but ultimately, Komarov was still playing with far, far superior linemates than the aforementioned guys, which speaks more about his quality and usage than anything.

I agree with just about all of this, good post. I think we're getting really close to that optimization, and getting a guy like Johnsson in over Leo next year (maybe even later this year for a cup of coffee) should be huge for our offensive depth.

 

[Pookie]

I could buy the good pro argument but I think as the season starts dwindling now and we begin to enter the playoffs, it's time to start optimizing the lineup. It may not be at that point yet (this is a matter of contention, for some fans, they have felt it's hit that point already or long overdue), but I think Babcock needs to get his act together and start gearing up for it because ultimately, Komarov is not productive enough at the usage he's been getting.

Furthermore (besides the optimization argument), it would do well for the younger guys on this team, rather than pending UFA veterans, to get thrown in the fire a bit to end the year and develop some underpinnings for success long-term. I understand there are ulterior circumstances (like trying to keep the cap-hit of some of the young guys down) but we're reaching a breaking point where it's starting to matter less in the grand scheme , given there's only about ~15 games left in the season until the playoffs. So I'm projecting a bit here but I'm talking.....maybe giving Kapanen a chance playing up in the lineup (which we saw a bit of last night)...or on PP unit #2 which has been god awful (and considering moving guys like Marleau off of it, who haven't done anything all year on it).

Or to a lesser extent, giving Nylander extended reps at C with Matthews out. To me, this seems like the opportune time.

As per quality of linemates, Kadri's streakiness might have had some part to play but ultimately, Komarov was still playing with far, far superior linemates than the aforementioned guys, which speaks more about his quality and usage than anything.

The younger development/experience angle is something I agree with.

But it is NOT what this team is doing. They are ok with rentals, be they ones they give up picks for or this “own” rental concept. They are ok with signing older players to play now... we got 3 +35 year olds this off-season.

They want Komarov in there because they deem that gives them the best defensive chance and they aren’t willing to let guys make mistakes.

So noble. Idealistic. But not what our management team is doing.

 

[firstemperor]

The younger development/experience angle is something I agree with.

But it is NOT what this team is doing. They are ok with rentals, be they ones they give up picks for or this “own” rental concept. They are ok with signing older players to play now... we got 3 +35 year olds this off-season.

They want Komarov in there because they deem that gives them the best defensive chance and they aren’t willing to let guys make mistakes.

So noble. Idealistic. But not what our management team is doing.

I think Pleks was fine, for the role he's been asked to do and given his productivity to date......his adjustment period is going to need to be short on this club though.

As for Komarov, his usage is one I disagree with vehemently this late into the season.

That said, I'm always on the boat that low-event, defensive hockey is not good, sustainable, winning hockey. I think with the level of talent, skill, and skating ability in this league today...it's about developing a high-paced, high-event, skill-based system where the goal is to limit mistakes and play that system with as much discipline as possible. The other extreme is far worst, less sustainable in terms of putting on a winning product, and potentially detrimental in terms of stunting player's skill and ability to micromanage risk-reward from a developmental standpoint.

I can buy the good pro argument and trying to foster some level of maturity, professionalism in the clubhouse that Komarov provides..but I'm talking strictly about the on-ice product and that's it. I think fostering those ideals (if that was Babcock's intention) is fine and all, but I think the breaking point is the playoffs, where the ultimate goal is to try to win....and we are in a position to do it today, so I think that should be the goal first and foremost. I'm all with Babcock's though experiments early on in the year but it's late in the season now and I'm optimistic that he will begin the process of revamping the lineup sooner, rather than later...which he seemed to have been doing recently.

As of now, I'm optimistic..

 

[Pookie]

So..... good game tonight

 

[Menzinger]

So..... good game tonight

Agreed.

If he played like that more often we wouldn’t need the thread.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Komarov looked like his old self tonight. Very happy for him, just wish he could have gotten that third one.