Ok, I think I need to Chime in here. First off I mean no disrespect to Vorky. Your post in the general discussions, business deals etc. are very well laid out and thought through and provide great inside on the KHL. But when it comes to expansion, I feel you are more passionate and leading with what you want to see, without considering outside circumstances. I get that Germany and Switzerland sound attractive but the last
I (doesnt mean its the most recent stand) heard of interest from Germany was Hamburg after AEG was folding the DEL team
You know. I have nothing against the Denmark. Nice country. But it is unrealistic to expect a KHL expansion to Denmark in near future. Especially if there is reported interest from Germany & Switzerland, who are leading expansion destinations (with Sweden, but you know...) for the KHL. The league has said many times, Germany, Switzeland & Sweden prevail over other countries. Now, we know there is a serious interest from two of the three, so easy choice.
You keep mentioning that there is serious/concrete interest from Germany, but at some point you need to give examples. I had a quick search around for latest articles. There is an interview with Andrei Trefilov, a legend in German hockey as much as in Russia, from 2015 where he said Germany should explore a team in the KHL in the long term (in the same interview he also said a Chinese team will not happen). The other two articles say that the plans are on ice (in 2011 when it was rumored to be an artificial team from Leipzig) and Sept 2016 when it was supposed to be Hamburg (and the German Federation stated they wouldn't entertain the idea).
The most important thing is how much are TVs willing to pay. German or Danish?
In Germany? Not much. The DEL gets roughly €4 million per year for 4 years. Per team thats about €285k and some change per team per year (14 Teams). And those are (bar 1 game a week) EXCLUSIVE broadcasting rights. As you can see Telekom didnt have to bid a lot of money to get German Ice Hockey under their wing. And that is for a league with local (Dusseldorf-Cologne, Mannheim-Schwenningen, Ingolstadt-Augsburg-Munich-Nurnberg) rivalries and duels. In the KHL there are no IT-factor games except for maybe SKA and Kovalchuck? So you can see there isnt much money in Ice hockey in Germany. As a comparison, they are paying 16 million per year for the rights to the third tier of German Football as of this season.
Denmark has 5-6 million inhabitants, Germany over 80 million. No doubt Germany is bigger market (& you can include Austria) than Denmark. Switzerland is small, but still bigger than Denmark.
Valid points yes. but of those 80 millions, how many are hockey fans? Already I'd say under that argument you are closer to 15 million at max. And since Germany is a large country location is important. Lets say Hamburg is chosen as location for the KHL. Now look at the real demographics of Ice Hockey in Germany. Id say most of the fans come from the south. From Cologne, Hamburg is some 400km away, and even more from most of the Southern German Cities were hockey is more prevalent. Thats a long journey for a midweek home game against Yugra. Especially when you consider that you have a perfectly good domestic club close to home that doesnt get slaughtered by any half decent team from the middle of nowhere, because Germany doesnt have the talent depth for the KHL. A league with "some" parity like the DEL is a lot more attractive for the casual fan. And this isnt Canada where families take entire "summer" holidays just to travel to Montreal to see half a playoff series of the Canadiens (as many Newfoundland people do, as my sources tell me).
So in all likelihood you'd need an already established team from Germany that has some scale of fan support and has the market size that can attract an even bigger audience. Unfortunately, those markets are few and far between. And the there is the hurdle of the German federation baring that.
Money is not a problem here.
Ok, granted, this quiote I've taken a little out of context, but it will still support my argument. Money is a big problem for Ice Hockey in Germany in fact. In 2013 Hannover went bankrupt because of a lack of funds. They lived beyond their means, won a championship and it was downhill from there very fast. The financial support just wasnt there. And thats for a DEL Budget, which is arguably a lot smaller than KHL requirements.
Why did Hamburg ultimately fold? AEG tried to find a buyer (obviously at the right asking price) but no local or even any suitable buyer was willing to put up the money for it, and even with Fans pledging large sums of money there was no potential owner to be found who saw the large fan support as a motivation to invest, because running the freezers was just not profitable at all. Not even as a marketing tool!
Dusseldorf is probably the closest example of a KHL-like model that survived after the investors (the Metro Group) pulled out of the team. The team nearly collapsed for the second time in 14 years, and were only just saved by Fans (and the Rock Band Toten Hosen who bought a stake, but I digress). In any case, what followed were 2-3 years at the bottom of the pile.
Other examples of teams that had major financial problems with the "comparatively low" DEL Budgets are the Frankfurt Lions. Money will be a factor, and I dont think a German Team would generate enough of a Budget for the KHL, even if we leave out the player Budgets, operations cost will be a first major hurdle.
In summary, I get where your excitement over Germany comes from, Its a great potential, but Factors such as Finances, Attractiveness and true potential hockey market size, combined with a rather limited player pool don't make me very positive of a KHL expansion ever happening. Especially if the the biggest hurdle in Germany is the federation, which similar to Sweden does not have a soft spot for the idea of a European KHL expansion.
You don't go to Russia for the goldrush, it's not Klondike!
