Keeper advice - tough decision

[Noly]

So I'm in a head to head pool and we get to keep three players for the next three years. We haven't decided as to how we're going to go about how the keeping process goes, because a few people want to implement a system where you get to keep a player with which round you "acquired" him with. Meaning if I trade you my 17th round pick for Crosby, I would get to draft Crosby in the 17th round for the next three years.

If we don't do that, it's just going to be three players off the top and then the normal draft begins, which is what I believe most leagues do. Anyways, I feel like I'm faced with a pretty damn tough decision here, so any advice or shooting the **** is appreciated.

It's a HTH league that had 10 people last year.



Skaters
-------------G A +/- PIM PPP SHP HIT
David Backes 27 30 14 119 16 0 273 (8th round)
Brent Burns 22 26 26 34 11 0 145 (10th round)
Zdeno Chara 17 23 25 66 15 1 163 (5th round)
Marian Gaborik 11 19 7 10 7 0 15 (7th round)
Scott Hartnell 20 32 11 103 20 0 155 (14th round)
Evander Kane 19 22 -7 66 5 2 173 (4th round)
Gabriel Landeskog 26 39 21 71 10 0 176 (12th! round)
Alex Ovechkin 51 28 -35 48 39 1 204 (1st round)
Dion Phaneuf 8 23 2 144 11 1 227 (9th round)
Jaden Schwartz 25 31 28 27 10 3 54 (17th round)
Jason Spezza 23 43 -26 46 22 0 17 (12th! round)
Paul Stastny 25 35 9 22 15 1 54 (17th round)
Mark Streit 10 34 3 44 15 0 41 (17th round)
Jakub Voracek 23 39 11 22 23 0 19 (17th! round)
Shea Weber 23 33 -2 52 26 0 169 (6th round)

Goaltending
---------------W GAA SV SA SV% SHO
Corey Crawford 32 2.26 1405 1533 .917 2 (3rd round)
Jaroslav Halak 29 2.25 1275 1385 .921 5 (17th round)


As you can see, with hits, PIMS, goals and assists in a HTH league, category coverage is pretty damn important. I'm leaning towards Ovechkin, Crawford and Landeskog, or maybe Ovechkin, Backes and Landeskog.
What do you think? It's pretty hard to cut Weber, Kane, Landeskog, Backes or Crawford, and I'm almost certainly not going to let Ovechkin get drafted by someone else, potentially someone who already has another top 5 guy kept.

I put which round I "acquired" each player with, so you can see which round I would get to draft them in for the next three years, if we go with that format. It's a totally different ballgame if we do that, as you can see. Because of trades that I made mid-season, some rounds I just straight up don't have anyone to keep, and because I acquired many of my final team with free agency pick ups, a lot of them can be kept with my final pick of the draft. Keeping multiple 17th rounders just queues the picks at the end of your draft, so keeping Stastny, Schwartz and Voracek would be my 15th, 16th and 17th picks.

So the value of players is skewed immensely if we go this route. There's likely to be 10 people in the draft, so the 10th round is picks 90-100th overall...so you can see how valuable Spezza or Landeskog would be with the 110-120th overall pick, or Voracek/Stastny with the 160-170th overall. It's tough.

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[klassic]

Goalies are a bid deal in this league. Almost half your stats are from goalies. So you definitely have to keep one. Can you trade before keeper declaration?

I would keep Crawford and then rank the others like this:
Ovi
Backes
Weber
Landeskog
Stastny
Kane
Spezza

If you can trade I would see if you could package a couple of guys for a top of the line goalie. 6 of your 13 stats are for goalies and a top goalie will be huge. Maybe you can get someone like Rinne who an owner may be down on since his injury last year.

 

[Noly]

Damn, I just copied and pasted the stats from my team last year, SV and SA are not active goalie stats in that league. Only W, SV%, GAA and SHO. Should've made that clearer.

But it's still 4/10 total stats.

 

[klassic]

Still in a keep 3 if you can get a top goalie everything else will fall in place. You have a lot of good pieces someone else may covet.

 

[Noly]

Only thing is, I would have to be giving somebody a player they will keep. Unless we go with the round-acquired system, that is unlikely to happen.

 

[Noly]

Bump because honestly this is a tough decision

 

[Noly]

bump because september

 

[koeltrain]

Your proposed system would never work. It would end up putting too much value on 60pt guys drafted late, rather than 100pt guys drafted early.

Cover your categories in this pool and you'll be fine.

 

[leafsrock67]

So I'm in a head to head pool and we get to keep three players for the next three years. We haven't decided as to how we're going to go about how the keeping process goes, because a few people want to implement a system where you get to keep a player with which round you "acquired" him with. Meaning if I trade you my 17th round pick for Crosby, I would get to draft Crosby in the 17th round for the next three years.

If we don't do that, it's just going to be three players off the top and then the normal draft begins, which is what I believe most leagues do. Anyways, I feel like I'm faced with a pretty damn tough decision here, so any advice or shooting the **** is appreciated.

It's a HTH league that had 10 people last year.



Skaters
-------------G A +/- PIM PPP SHP HIT
David Backes 27 30 14 119 16 0 273 (8th round)
Brent Burns 22 26 26 34 11 0 145 (10th round)
Zdeno Chara 17 23 25 66 15 1 163 (5th round)
Marian Gaborik 11 19 7 10 7 0 15 (7th round)
Scott Hartnell 20 32 11 103 20 0 155 (14th round)
Evander Kane 19 22 -7 66 5 2 173 (4th round)
Gabriel Landeskog 26 39 21 71 10 0 176 (12th! round)
Alex Ovechkin 51 28 -35 48 39 1 204 (1st round)
Dion Phaneuf 8 23 2 144 11 1 227 (9th round)
Jaden Schwartz 25 31 28 27 10 3 54 (17th round)
Jason Spezza 23 43 -26 46 22 0 17 (12th! round)
Paul Stastny 25 35 9 22 15 1 54 (17th round)
Mark Streit 10 34 3 44 15 0 41 (17th round)
Jakub Voracek 23 39 11 22 23 0 19 (17th! round)
Shea Weber 23 33 -2 52 26 0 169 (6th round)

Goaltending
---------------W GAA SV SA SV% SHO
Corey Crawford 32 2.26 1405 1533 .917 2 (3rd round)
Jaroslav Halak 29 2.25 1275 1385 .921 5 (17th round)


As you can see, with hits, PIMS, goals and assists in a HTH league, category coverage is pretty damn important. I'm leaning towards Ovechkin, Crawford and Landeskog, or maybe Ovechkin, Backes and Landeskog.
What do you think? It's pretty hard to cut Weber, Kane, Landeskog, Backes or Crawford, and I'm almost certainly not going to let Ovechkin get drafted by someone else, potentially someone who already has another top 5 guy kept.

I put which round I "acquired" each player with, so you can see which round I would get to draft them in for the next three years, if we go with that format. It's a totally different ballgame if we do that, as you can see. Because of trades that I made mid-season, some rounds I just straight up don't have anyone to keep, and because I acquired many of my final team with free agency pick ups, a lot of them can be kept with my final pick of the draft. Keeping multiple 17th rounders just queues the picks at the end of your draft, so keeping Stastny, Schwartz and Voracek would be my 15th, 16th and 17th picks.

So the value of players is skewed immensely if we go this route. There's likely to be 10 people in the draft, so the 10th round is picks 90-100th overall...so you can see how valuable Spezza or Landeskog would be with the 110-120th overall pick, or Voracek/Stastny with the 160-170th overall. It's tough.

Ovechkin Backes Landeskog. Goalies tend to be a little inconsistent in fantasy, and goalies like Ben Bishop, Semyon Varlamov, Steve Mason were all huge sleepers. There will always be good goalies on the waiver wire and starters in late rounds.

 

[Noly]

Your proposed system would never work. It would end up putting too much value on 60pt guys drafted late, rather than 100pt guys drafted early.

Cover your categories in this pool and you'll be fine.

I know exactly what you mean, but I'm not the commissioner, friend. I'm along for the ride and there's no looking back now.

Keep in mind, this is a head to head pool. The late drafted 60pt guys are definitely valuable when assigning keepers, but each stat is worth the same, so that only applies if they have good coverage as well. So you want to get more value, but you also can't just keep your late guys and expect that to be the most efficient.

 

[Noly]

Ovechkin Backes Landeskog. Goalies tend to be a little inconsistent in fantasy, and goalies like Ben Bishop, Semyon Varlamov, Steve Mason were all huge sleepers. There will always be good goalies on the waiver wire and starters in late rounds.

That is exactly what I wanted to do, but the idea of everyone keeping their good goalies is what worries me. I don't even have a pick until the 16th overall, so it would almost have to be a goalie at that point because there's a chance that ~6 of the top 10 goalies were kept and unavailable from the start, and everyone above me in the draft gets to pick twice before I get to pick once (because I'm taking Ovie with my first round pick, 8th overall, no matter what basically).

Other than that, I agree with your selections for the most part. Ovie Backes and Landeskog seem to have the most value, imo.

 

[Mattilaus]

I was also wondering if I could get some advice for my keeper. 10 person h2h league with 20 keepers. forward stats are G, A, P, +/-, PPG, PPA, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK. Aside from my obvious keepers I need to drop 3 of the following to get down to 20 keepers:

Torey Krug
Gustav Nyquist
Paul Stastny
Ryan O'Reilly
Ryan McDonagh
Reilly Smith
Brendan Gallagher

Normally D men would be an easy choice but we have 4 D slots and I only have 4 D men including Krug and McDonagh. Any thoughts?

 

[Noly]

I was also wondering if I could get some advice for my keeper. 10 person h2h league with 20 keepers. forward stats are G, A, P, +/-, PPG, PPA, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK. Aside from my obvious keepers I need to drop 3 of the following to get down to 20 keepers:

Torey Krug
Gustav Nyquist
Paul Stastny
Ryan O'Reilly
Ryan McDonagh
Reilly Smith
Brendan Gallagher

Normally D men would be an easy choice but we have 4 D slots and I only have 4 D men including Krug and McDonagh. Any thoughts?

In my opinion, Stastny, O'Reilly and Nyquist are your safest bets. Who are your other two Dmen?

 

[Mattilaus]

Weber and Doughty

 

[Noly]

What are the chances that other teams keep all four of their Dmen?

 

[Mattilaus]

Low, some teams were rolling 3 D men by the end of the season despite the fact there were 4 slots because unless you have high performing D men it made sense to carry another forward. I should mention how many slots there are 3c 3rw 3lw 2w 1f 4d 4util. I have already been told by one person if I drop Krug he won't be available again by my 1st pick so if he gets dropped I am sacrificing him.

 

[Noly]

If there's a low chance that other teams will keep 4 D, there's a high chance that you'll be able to draft some of the better ones. I'd go with Stastny, O'Reilly and Nyquist, or maybe drop one of them for Krug if you want to have some trade bait for that other guy.

 

[Mattilaus]

Sorry I think my post was a little confusing, I need to DROP three from that list, not keep three. So I can keep stastny, o'reilly, nyquist, and one of Gallagher, Smith, McDonagh, and Krug. So I am guessing you suggest Krug as my last one? Dropping McDonagh, Gallagher, and Smith?