JVR-Bozak-Marner or JVR-Bozak-Brown ?

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
The negative net effect is lost on some.

Yeah normally I wouldn't point to +1 numbers and especially not after just 4 games but the numbers do jump out at you, Bozak and JVR have a history with those numbers being bad and we can all see how they're playing. Hell even Babcock mentioned it after the NJ game.

Perfect time to scratch him and give Leivo a game or two ??

I'd sub in Leivo for JVR instead of Marner myself for a couple of reasons.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,342
21,360
Richmond Hill, ON
Yeah normally I wouldn't point to +1 numbers and especially not after just 4 games but the numbers do jump out at you, Bozak and JVR have a history with those numbers being bad and we can all see how they're playing. Hell even Babcock mentioned it after the NJ game.



I'd sub in Leivo for JVR instead of Marner myself for a couple of reasons.

Can't see Babs subbing JVR unless he goes into a huge slump and at the moment he has numbers.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,342
21,360
Richmond Hill, ON
I suspect he's referring to the fact that this line consists of the 3 players with the worst +- ratings of all Leaf forwards despite their sheltered role.

Scoring goals is a positive thing but if you allow more goals than you score, how much does that help the team? Think about it. :)

Again it depends when the goals are scored.

Giving up a goal when you are up 8-1 is not the same as giving up a tying or winning goal. The same is true for scoring a goal when you are up 8-1 or when you are down 1 or tied.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HamiltonNHL

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
Again it depends when the goals are scored.

Giving up a goal when you are up 8-1 is not the same as giving up a tying or winning goal. The same is true for scoring a goal when you are up 8-1 or when you are down 1 or tied.

Sure, context is important for most (maybe all) stats. Regardless of any numbers though, I think we can all agree that this line has not been playing well defensively to say the least.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
Can't say I disagree with that statement.

Cool. And I would add that they better snap out of it soon or something has to happen be it breaking up the line, benching one or more of them for at least one game of whatever. I personally wouldn't mind seeing JVR benched for one game, would send a message to the entire team. Of course what I would like to see even more is for the entire team to play well tomorrow night. I want us to get to the point where the consensus is that we're one of the best teams in the league and I believe we have the talent to do just that which is why it's frustrating as hell to see them mail it in like they did Wednesday night. I really hope we don't see that again for some time.
 

Pookie

Wear a mask
Oct 23, 2013
16,172
6,684
The negative net effect is lost on some.

Fortunately, we had a positive effect which resulted in the game not being lost.

Hey, I thought plus/minus didn't matter? Or was that only once your favourite player finally posted positive numbers in that category?
 

MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,376
2,233
Toronto
You mean combine on a game tying goal that led to an OT victory and 2 points instead of 0 against the Hawks?

That kind of step up?

Team worst on probably one of the best offense in the league - so they need to step up defensively

Marner -5
JVR -4
Bozak -3

I respect you and your opinion(s) but there is no need to be so emotional and attached with certain player(s) and ignore all the facts
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gary Nylund

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Letter grade indicates quality of competition, percentage indicates expected goals for percentage at even strength, adjusted for score and zone deployment:

Hyman (B) 74.0% - Matthews (B) 75.0% - Nylander (B) 71.5%
Marleau (B+) 46.6% - Kadri (B) 49.3% - Komarov (B+) 50.4%
VanRyk (C) 54.5% - Bozak (C) 49.1% - Marner (C) 52.0%
Martin (C) 43.4% - Fehr (C) 56.7% / Moore (C-) 49.6% - Brown (C+) 46.4%
the worst performance there, other than martin, comes from Bozak, who can't even put up a positive differential even in buttersoft usage with good wingers.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,912
11,862
Leafs Home Board
Letter grade indicates quality of competition, percentage indicates expected goals for percentage at even strength, adjusted for score and zone deployment:

Hyman (B) 74.0% - Matthews (B) 75.0% - Nylander (B) 71.5%
Marleau (B+) 46.6% - Kadri (B) 49.3% - Komarov (B+) 50.4%
VanRyk (C) 54.5% - Bozak (C) 49.1% - Marner (C) 52.0%
Martin (C) 43.4% - Fehr (C) 56.7% / Moore (C-) 49.6% - Brown (C+) 46.4%
the worst performance there, other than martin, comes from Bozak, who can't even put up a positive differential even in buttersoft usage with good wingers.

Sums it up pretty well, even being sheltered as a 3rd line and getting favorable opposition match-ups they still get scored on more than they score at even strength.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Sums it up pretty well, even being sheltered as a 3rd line and getting favorable opposition match-ups they still get scored on more than they score at even strength.

not exactly. those numbers tell us that as a line they are creating slightly more offense than they're allowing, in soft usage. With Bozak being the weakest link.
 

The Apologist

Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Oct 16, 2007
12,208
2,923
Leaf Nation Hell
Scoring goals is a positive thing but if you allow more goals than you score, how much does that help the team? Think about it. :)
And therein lies the problem with using +/-

Only one player on that line has been on the ice for more goals against than for, and it was Mitch.
Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga (not amazing but still a net +)
Mitch is actually -3 even when factoring in PP scoring.

On the holy crap side, Nazem is +7 when factoring in PP scoring (only 2g against if Im counting correctly) and Matthews is +9 (only 1G against, oddly enough while paired with Mitch).

Marner has been on the ice for 50% of the goals against this team, JVR and Bozak 30%. Again assuming I'm counting correctly of course. Please feel free to correct me.
 

member 262271

Guest
Personally I'm at the point where I think this line has to be broken up or one of the players moved. Let's face it, that player is JVR, whatever reservations I have with Bozak; he's a great faceoff guy.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,875
9,713
Personally I'm at the point where I think this line has to be broken up or one of the players moved. Let's face it, that player is JVR, whatever reservations I have with Bozak; he's a great faceoff guy.

The C changes the line dynamic. The problem is the C, has been since Lupul Bozak Kessel and will never change until Matthews or Nylander takes over the line. Faceoffs honestly mean didly and Bozak lost his advantage this year to rules
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,875
9,713
And therein lies the problem with using +/-

Only one player on that line has been on the ice for more goals against than for, and it was Mitch.
Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga (not amazing but still a net +)
Mitch is actually -3 even when factoring in PP scoring.

On the holy crap side, Nazem is +7 when factoring in PP scoring (only 2g against if Im counting correctly) and Matthews is +9 (only 1G against, oddly enough while paired with Mitch).

Marner has been on the ice for 50% of the goals against this team, JVR and Bozak 30%. Again assuming I'm counting correctly of course. Please feel free to correct me.

I am not shocked. He has been awful and tbh the really shocking thing is people here defend him as is. The kid needs to shape up and fast
 

member 262271

Guest
The C changes the line dynamic. The problem is the C, has been since Lupul Bozak Kessel and will never change until Matthews or Nylander takes over the line. Faceoffs honestly mean didly and Bozak lost his advantage this year to rules
I haven't looked at his percentage but I thought he was still doing quite well? Thought most of his struggles with the new rules were in preseason. It's hard when dopes like Romanuk say what a great faceoff games he's had when it isn't necessarily the case. I don't disagree with you either way though, but when I think about replacing Bozak or JVR James seems like the easier one.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
And therein lies the problem with using +/-

Only one player on that line has been on the ice for more goals against than for, and it was Mitch.
Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga (not amazing but still a net +)
Mitch is actually -3 e
ven when factoring in PP scoring.

On the holy crap side, Nazem is +7 when factoring in PP scoring (only 2g against if Im counting correctly) and Matthews is +9 (only 1G against, oddly enough while paired with Mitch).

Marner has been on the ice for 50% of the goals against this team, JVR and Bozak 30%. Again assuming I'm counting correctly of course. Please feel free to correct me.

I'm not sure what numbers you're talking about. I'm talking about the +- which counts only even strength goals and Bozak, JVR and Marner are at -3, -4 and -5 respectively. In the context of the rest of our team, those numbers stand out like a sore thumb. Here's the link:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/2018.html

Personally I'm at the point where I think this line has to be broken up or one of the players moved. Let's face it, that player is JVR, whatever reservations I have with Bozak; he's a great faceoff guy.

Yup, I reached this conclusion about a year ago. Not only is Bozak a good faceoff guy but the return on JVR would also likely be much higher.
 

leaffaninvancouver

formerly in Victoria
Jan 11, 2012
13,819
8,327
The C changes the line dynamic. The problem is the C, has been since Lupul Bozak Kessel and will never change until Matthews or Nylander takes over the line. Faceoffs honestly mean didly and Bozak lost his advantage this year to rules

Bozak so far this year is the only I see playing defense on that line, what goal against would you lay on Bozak? JVR can't back check to save his life and Marner has just been bad defensively and his passing has been dangerous both for us and the other team.

At least so far this season the problem with the line doesn't seem to be Bozak.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Apologist

The Apologist

Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Oct 16, 2007
12,208
2,923
Leaf Nation Hell
I'm not sure what numbers you're talking about. I'm talking about the +- which counts only even strength goals and Bozak, JVR and Marner are at -3, -4 and -5 respectively. In the context of the rest of our team, those numbers stand out like a sore thumb. Here's the link:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/2018.html
I explained in the post where the numbers are from. It is actual goals for anD against.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
I am not shocked. He has been awful and tbh the really shocking thing is people here defend him as is. The kid needs to shape up and fast

Don't worry, people will be on his case soon enough if he doesn't improve. Thing is though, he's a young kid while his linemates are veterans who should have learned their lessons a long time ago.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
73,080
38,132
Don't worry, people will be on his case soon enough if he doesn't improve. Thing is though, he's a young kid while his linemates are veterans who should have learned their lessons a long time ago.
He looks like he's trying to do too much which isn't surprising, he's pretty much on his own defensively.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,786
21,962
I explained in the post where the numbers are from. It is actual goals for an against.

I guess I'm either not understanding what you posted or your numbers contradict mine. Perhaps you could provide a link that shows how as you said, "Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga".
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Apologist

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,490
11,108
And therein lies the problem with using +/-

Only one player on that line has been on the ice for more goals against than for, and it was Mitch.
Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga (not amazing but still a net +)
Mitch is actually -3 even when factoring in PP scoring.

On the holy crap side, Nazem is +7 when factoring in PP scoring (only 2g against if Im counting correctly) and Matthews is +9 (only 1G against, oddly enough while paired with Mitch).

Marner has been on the ice for 50% of the goals against this team, JVR and Bozak 30%. Again assuming I'm counting correctly of course. Please feel free to correct me.
Not sure what you're using but NHL.com tracks total GF and GA under their plus minus report.

Most of your numbers are accurate, but it sounded like you may be doing some calculations manually.
 

The Apologist

Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Oct 16, 2007
12,208
2,923
Leaf Nation Hell
I guess I'm either not understanding what you posted or your numbers contradict mine. Perhaps you could provide a link that shows how as you said, "Bozak and JVR are both actually +1 in gf/ga".
They don't contradict your 5v5 numbers, they contradict the net negative aspect you stated. They have been on the ice for one more goal for than against when you factor in all goals, not just 5 on 5. That makes them a net positive. These numbers can be found in the boxscores at NHL.com. They list the players on the ice for every goal.

Not sure what you're using but NHL.com tracks total GF and GA under their plus minus report.

Most of your numbers are accurate, but it sounded like you may be doing some calculations manually.

As mentioned above, I used NHL.com's boxscores but it is quite possible. Do you have them as a negative?
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->