Johnsson or Kapanen your choice

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
25,326
9,343
Toronto
Maybe AJ is what she needed to sit brown? When did we have before that could replace him?

babcock adores brown he wont be sitting. He went out of his way at the start of the year to promote brown from the 4ht line ASAP, AJ is going back to the marlies. Its a shame because Brown has been invisible both sides of the puck and is only hanging in there due to a successful PK currently, but how mouch of that success is down to brown? im not sure.
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
babcock adores brown he wont be sitting. He went out of his way at the start of the year to promote brown from the 4ht line ASAP, AJ is going back to the marlies. Its a shame because Brown has been invisible both sides of the puck and is only hanging in there due to a successful PK currently, but how mouch of that success is down to brown? im not sure.
AJ can kill penalties too like Kapanen can but I guess we have to wait for Babcock t trust him on the pk.
Maybe a game or 2 for brown to "rest" will light a fire under his butt?
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Looking at my usual metrics....


Bozak (31):
74gms, ES 13:24 (C-), 1.83p60, 51.6cf% (+1.7), 54.4xgf% (+5.1) / PP 2:14, 4.02p60 / SH 0:00
VanRyk (28): 74gms, ES 12:31 (C), 1.89p60, 53.1cf% (+3.7), 55.0xgf% (+5.9) / PP 2:20, 6.65p60 / SH 0:00
Brown (23): 75gms, ES 11:56 (C+), 1.46p60, 49.1cf% (-1.7), 48.3xgf% (-3.0) / PP 1:16, 1.27p60 / SH 1:50

Plekanec (35): 71gms, ES 13:21 (B), 1.19p60, 52.0cf% (+1.0), 56.4xgf% (+4.7) / PP 0:09, 0.00p60 / SH 2:00
Kapanen (21): 32gms, ES 10:26 (D-), 1.28p60, 52.1cf% (+1.9), 53.3xgf% (+4.3) / PP 0:01, 0.00p60 / SH 1:05
Johnsson (23): 5gms, ES 10:28 (D), 1.19p60, 61.4cf% (+10.7), 55.6xgf% (+9.0) / PP 1:16, 0.00p60 / SH 0:06

Komarov (31): 71gms, ES 12:42 (B+), 0.69p60, 46.7cf% (-4.7), 47.3xgf% (-4.9) / PP 0:38, 0.00p60 / SH 2:34


at first glance it looks like Brown would be the only one I'd want to see Leo replace.

but then I look at this.....

Unfortunately corsica's line combos don't give us quality of competition, but maybe they're useful anyways (and these are still zone and score adjusted):

Matthews/Nylander/Hyman: 52.8cf% (+3.4rel), 54.0xgf% (+5.3rel), 68.2gf% (+17.2rel)

Not only an excellent line in terms of possession and expected goals, but dominant in terms of actual goals, all against elite competition (about "A+" qoc).

Kadri/Marleau/Marner: 51.0cf% (-0.1rel), 46.6xgf% (-4.6rel), 57.7gf% (+1.7rel)
Kadri/Marleau/Komarov: 49.6cf% (-1.6rel), 48.7xgf% (-4.5rel), 46.5gf% (-11.0rel)


Interestingly there hasn't been a huge difference in possession with the line switch - but the different results in terms of actual goals have been massive. Surprisingly to me, though, even with Marner on there the line hasn't been quite as good as I thought, even in actual goals. But that might be due to an increase in minutes and qoc since Marner was on there - not a huge one, but iirc the line has gone from about A- to A/A+ usage since the switch.

Bozak/JVR/Brown: 53.8cf% (+4.1rel), 56.9xgf% (+6.9rel), 67.0gf% (+14.2rel)
Bozak/JVR/Marner: 54.1cf% (+4.2rel), 57.9xgf% (+7.9rel), 47.5gf% (-6.4rel)


An even bigger surprise - not only has the switch from Marner to Brown not hurt the line possession wise in any way, but it has actually resulted in a MASSIVE improvement in actual goals for/against. Some of that is explained by a slightly easier qoc, as the line is now used exclusively as a pure 3rd line, but still I honestly did not expect that.


Hmm. I didn't actually expect these results. Makes me reconsider some stuff.

and it makes me think that one thing we most definitely shouldn't do is mess with any of our top 3 lines. even (especially?) that 3rd line.
 

meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
4,682
4,602
Bangkok
babcock adores brown he wont be sitting. He went out of his way at the start of the year to promote brown from the 4ht line ASAP, AJ is going back to the marlies. Its a shame because Brown has been invisible both sides of the puck and is only hanging in there due to a successful PK currently, but how mouch of that success is down to brown? im not sure.

Nonsense. Brown's contribution to JVR and Bozak is specifically determined by his defensive efforts. They've not had anyone who has brought his skill set to the line and they are freed up because of it. Connor Brown is a massive contributor to the Leafs success, not because he's scoring, but because he's allowing JVR to continue being a liability defensively while scoring and giving Bozak a chance to be appreciated for what he is, a useful offensive contributor who brings little to the table defensively.

See Zack's numbers above.
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
Looking at my usual metrics....


Bozak (31):
74gms, ES 13:24 (C-), 1.83p60, 51.6cf% (+1.7), 54.4xgf% (+5.1) / PP 2:14, 4.02p60 / SH 0:00
VanRyk (28): 74gms, ES 12:31 (C), 1.89p60, 53.1cf% (+3.7), 55.0xgf% (+5.9) / PP 2:20, 6.65p60 / SH 0:00
Brown (23): 75gms, ES 11:56 (C+), 1.46p60, 49.1cf% (-1.7), 48.3xgf% (-3.0) / PP 1:16, 1.27p60 / SH 1:50

Plekanec (35): 71gms, ES 13:21 (B), 1.19p60, 52.0cf% (+1.0), 56.4xgf% (+4.7) / PP 0:09, 0.00p60 / SH 2:00
Kapanen (21): 32gms, ES 10:26 (D-), 1.28p60, 52.1cf% (+1.9), 53.3xgf% (+4.3) / PP 0:01, 0.00p60 / SH 1:05
Johnsson (23): 5gms, ES 10:28 (D), 1.19p60, 61.4cf% (+10.7), 55.6xgf% (+9.0) / PP 1:16, 0.00p60 / SH 0:06

Komarov (31): 71gms, ES 12:42 (B+), 0.69p60, 46.7cf% (-4.7), 47.3xgf% (-4.9) / PP 0:38, 0.00p60 / SH 2:34


at first glance it looks like Brown would be the only one I'd want to see Leo replace.

but then I look at this.....

Unfortunately corsica's line combos don't give us quality of competition, but maybe they're useful anyways (and these are still zone and score adjusted):

Matthews/Nylander/Hyman: 52.8cf% (+3.4rel), 54.0xgf% (+5.3rel), 68.2gf% (+17.2rel)

Not only an excellent line in terms of possession and expected goals, but dominant in terms of actual goals, all against elite competition (about "A+" qoc).

Kadri/Marleau/Marner: 51.0cf% (-0.1rel), 46.6xgf% (-4.6rel), 57.7gf% (+1.7rel)
Kadri/Marleau/Komarov: 49.6cf% (-1.6rel), 48.7xgf% (-4.5rel), 46.5gf% (-11.0rel)


Interestingly there hasn't been a huge difference in possession with the line switch - but the different results in terms of actual goals have been massive. Surprisingly to me, though, even with Marner on there the line hasn't been quite as good as I thought, even in actual goals. But that might be due to an increase in minutes and qoc since Marner was on there - not a huge one, but iirc the line has gone from about A- to A/A+ usage since the switch.

Bozak/JVR/Brown: 53.8cf% (+4.1rel), 56.9xgf% (+6.9rel), 67.0gf% (+14.2rel)
Bozak/JVR/Marner: 54.1cf% (+4.2rel), 57.9xgf% (+7.9rel), 47.5gf% (-6.4rel)


An even bigger surprise - not only has the switch from Marner to Brown not hurt the line possession wise in any way, but it has actually resulted in a MASSIVE improvement in actual goals for/against. Some of that is explained by a slightly easier qoc, as the line is now used exclusively as a pure 3rd line, but still I honestly did not expect that.


Hmm. I didn't actually expect these results. Makes me reconsider some stuff.

and it makes me think that one thing we most definitely shouldn't do is mess with any of our top 3 lines. even (especially?) that 3rd line.
What effect does jvr's insane hot streak have to do with that and how would it roject if he was his average self?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Walshy7

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
25,326
9,343
Toronto
Nonsense. Brown's contribution to JVR and Bozak is specifically determined by his defensive efforts. They've not had anyone who has brought his skill set to the line and they are freed up because of it. Connor Brown is a massive contributor to the Leafs success, not because he's scoring, but because he's allowing JVR to continue being a liability defensively while scoring and giving Bozak a chance to be appreciated for what he is, a useful offensive contributor who brings little to the table defensively.

See Zack's numbers above.

JVR being on the hotstreak of his life is because brown is back there for him defensively? no I don't think so. If jvr cools so do those stats. They are getting easier competition than when they had Marner there. Brown is above average defensively but he is not some great defensive forward that has steadied the ship of the bozak line. JVR got hot that's the extent of it
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
What effect does jvr's insane hot streak have to do with that and how would it roject if he was his average self?

well, the underlying numbers like I said/showed are still great, so the line would project well even with more normal luck.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saltming

Valk the line

Registered User
Oct 31, 2017
20
14
The stats on Brown are interesting - and no question he contributes when he's in the right slot.
Unfortunately, he hasn't been passing the eye test - both on puck battles and puck decisions, lately.
When he doesn't play with jam he just isn't that effective. He might benefit from a break when Leo gets back. Let's see what AJ's got over a larger sample.
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
well, the underlying numbers like I said/showed are still great, so the line would project well even with more normal luck.
So in your opinion subbing AJ and his numbers and skill set in for brown would regress the line?
 

Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
25,326
9,343
Toronto
well, the underlying numbers like I said/showed are still great, so the line would project well even with more normal luck.

surely actual goals for with JVR on a huge hot streak would affect the actual goals for no? how can it not, what is JVR up to now 11 points in his last 10 games including 8 goals. 8 goals in 10 games is far from normal numbers

edit: if you go back to 11 games its 9 goals in 11 (games 11 and 10 were a back to back)

2nd edit: eh my bad I forgot about PP, obviously that line has nothing to do with his PP points.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
So in your opinion subbing AJ and his numbers and skill set in for brown would regress the line?

impossible to know for sure - but we do know is that the line is performing very well as is. I.e. it's not a line that looks like it needs an upgrade at the moment, so you might be playing with fire by subbing in another kid who is no lock to be an upgrade.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
surely actual goals for with JVR on a huge hot streak would affect the actual goals for no? how can it not, what is JVR up to now 11 points in his last 10 games including 8 goals. 8 goals in 10 games is far from normal numbers

edit: if you go back to 11 games its 9 goals in 11 (games 11 and 10 were a back to back)

2nd edit: eh my bad I forgot about PP, obviously that line has nothing to do with his PP points.

Bozak/JVR/Brown: 53.8cf% (+4.1rel), 56.9xgf% (+6.9rel), 67.0gf% (+14.2rel)

The actual goals there (gf%) are obviously pretty ridiculous, and unsustainable.

But, even then, the underlying numbers (both corsi and expected goals here), say the line is doing great (and every bit as well as it was doing with Mitch) even if we expect their actual goals to cool down.
 

meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
4,682
4,602
Bangkok
surely actual goals for with JVR on a huge hot streak would affect the actual goals for no? how can it not, what is JVR up to now 11 points in his last 10 games including 8 goals. 8 goals in 10 games is far from normal numbers

edit: if you go back to 11 games its 9 goals in 11 (games 11 and 10 were a back to back)

2nd edit: eh my bad I forgot about PP, obviously that line has nothing to do with his PP points.

I don't have the numbers, which might prove me wrong, but outside of their success on the PP, would JVR's and Bozak's numbers at ES suggest that yes, Brown's contributions are substantially improving the way in which they are viewed because, indeed, the line's success has improved due to Brown's defensive prowess vs Marner's. Sorry if poorly stated, but tis time for me to sleep. Cheers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buds17

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
impossible to know for sure - but we do know is that the line is performing very well as is. I.e. it's not a line that looks like it needs an upgrade at the moment, so you might be playing with fire by subbing in another kid who is no lock to be an upgrade.
That's fair. But brown still need a little kick in the butt
 

Kiwi

Registered User
Mar 5, 2016
20,980
15,856
The Naki
Play Leo during away games for Babs matchup, Johnsson at home?

I personally like the veteran for experience and his initiative to play a physical/agitating game. Leo thrives in the post-season and Leo-Pleks-Kaps is essentially another shutdown line for Babs.

Could be an option but Babcock has been more likely to run a shutdown line on home ice recently

I don't mind Komarov and how he plays but he needs to add something offensively 5v5 or be a shutdown God

He's been a liability all season in that regard

My questions n was just about comparing the players and not if we should switch them.
On that note however, brown has been MIA most shifts on that line. Jvr has been in beast mode and looks like he could go 1 on 5 some shifts haha
Honestly though brown really has only been a warm body out there

He's doing a lot of dirty work on that line Salt

We both know Bozak and JVR aren't but that line doesn't look like a complete defensive liability now and they seem to have the puck a lot more now

That's the Brown effect
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
Could be an option but Babcock has been more likely to run a shutdown line on home ice recently

I don't mind Komarov and how he plays but he needs to add something offensively 5v5 or be a shutdown God

He's been a liability all season in that regard



He's doing a lot of dirty work on that line Salt

We both know Bozak and JVR aren't but that line doesn't look like a complete defensive liability now and they seem to have the puck a lot more now

That's the Brown effect
Brown is the house man effect?
It could be and I will have to try to look with less bias but ATM my eyes test backs up the numbers and I don't see him crashing around like Hyman or regaining the puck as much as Hyman.
What I do see is in the defensive zone he's really good. Reads and reacts well but I think AJ does this too with added pluses
 

Kiwi

Registered User
Mar 5, 2016
20,980
15,856
The Naki
Brown is the house man effect?
It could be and I will have to try to look with less bias but ATM my eyes test backs up the numbers and I don't see him crashing around like Hyman or regaining the puck as much as Hyman.
What I do see is in the defensive zone he's really good. Reads and reacts well but I think AJ does this too with added pluses

I like Johnsson but he's not ready to be the defensive conscience on a top 9 line yet like Brown is, complementary piece on a line sure but that's a hell of a load for a kid just making his way in the league

Brown doesn't bang and crash, he's more subtle than that and he's letting Bozak and JVR do there thing without worrying about anything else (not that they do anyway)

The fact Brown is a natural RW helps to, Johnsson looks better on the LW imo
 

Ziggdiezan

Registered User
Apr 10, 2015
10,847
5,676
Brown is the house man effect?
It could be and I will have to try to look with less bias but ATM my eyes test backs up the numbers and I don't see him crashing around like Hyman or regaining the puck as much as Hyman.
What I do see is in the defensive zone he's really good. Reads and reacts well but I think AJ does this too with added pluses
Brown is always the first forechecker in on that line and comes up with the puck as much as Hyman it seems. Seen him win some boards battles lately against much bigger defenders and he is for sure helping the cycle down low something no one on the line (including Marner) is good at.

I wouldn't touch that line for now. Realitically Brown shouldn't be used as a down low grinder like he is but his speed on the forecheck and the lack of battling from JVR/Bozak are making it a necessity.

When Brown is utilized differently next year I would expect his numbers to bounce back up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saltming

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,040
7,053
Other
I like Johnsson but he's not ready to be the defensive conscience on a top 9 line yet like Brown is, complementary piece on a line sure but that's a hell of a load for a kid just making his way in the league

Brown doesn't bang and crash, he's more subtle than that and he's letting Bozak and JVR do there thing without worrying about anything else (not that they do anyway)

The fact Brown is a natural RW helps to, Johnsson looks better on the LW imo
AJ has lots of pro experience. He came for the shl (4 years) to the ahl (2+ years)
He's not a newbie to the pro game. Haha his defensive game is on point
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->