Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part II (Updates in First Post)

[tigervixxxen]

Joe doesn't get enough credit for landing Alex Kerfoot. That deal doesn't happen without him if Kerfoot is to be believed, and I can't even imagine where the team would be without him. Currently leading the team in goals and only 1 point short of being tied for 4th in rookie scoring.

Not sure if anyone caught it or not but McNab just threw in the nugget post game that Kerf caught Sakic's eye at the beanpot last year, within the context of that's why they decided to go after him.

 

[Foppa2118]

Not sure if anyone caught it or not but McNab just threw in the nugget post game that Kerf caught Sakic's eye at the beanpot last year, within the context of that's why they decided to go after him.

Good eye by Joe if that's the case. You could tell early on that Kerfoot was the real deal. Getting him for free was a huge add. Especially in terms of replacing Duchene.

I don't want to turn this into a Duchene bash, but considering he essentially replaced Duchene's role in the lineup at center in the top 6, it's relevant to point out that Kerfoot has 17 points in 23 games, versus Duchene's 11 in 23 games.

Kerfoot's on pace for 29 goals, 32 assists, 61 points. He also works harder than Duchene defensively, and makes his line mates better than Dutchy traditionally did, because he sees the ice better.

Will be interesting to track the two in the next few years. If things continue to go the way they are so far, the Avs could be better off with Kerfoot than they were with Duchene. Duchene will always have the talent an ability to just explode into an offensive machine, and totally outshine what Kerfoot can do, but he just can't seem to prevent his head from getting in the way of putting up those kind of numbers, with prolonged slumps every season. In the end you usually end up with around a 55 point season, with average defense at best.

So far at least, it seems Kerfoot might be able to match, and possibly better that kind of contribution on a season.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm seeing that 2019 will more or less be Sakic's biggest test to date. A whole ton of players' deals expire, including a lot of current rookies on their ELCs and Zadorov. That of course is assuming none of these guys are dealt between now and the end of next season, and the cap will be higher but not high to the point where it'll be easy to keep everyone who does well.

This of course coincides with the likely opt-out of the current CBA in 2019 as well, so I wonder if any of these players will demand lockout protection. So far the Avs have avoided those types of deals.

 

[5280]

While he no doubt played a part, Sakic shouldn't get the credit nor the blame for the hiring of Patrick Roy. Ownership was going to bring him aboard no matter what.

The arrangement was doomed from the start. Either Roy should have had all executive power or none of it. You can't have a two-headed monster running an organization. There will always be fundamental disagreements, doesn't matter whether things were ironed out on the golf course or not.

Ironically, much as Roy seems averse to analytics he proved them right in one fundamental philosophy that forever changed when coaches decide to pull the goalie. Unfortunately I think it's also resulted in the epidemic of empty-net goals we've been witnessing, but y'know...

Again, I really, really want to see Patrick Roy given free rein with a different team. Habs, expansion club, some other team, who knows. But I want to see him get that shot. I have said before I think he will fail because I think his philosophies/tactics are horribly outdated, but the league needs a personality like his in the worst way. And if he proves me wrong, bonus.

Yeah don’t get me wrong. Roy is one of my favorite athletes of all time and I’m not so sure he can’t or won’t be successful if given another opportunity. I’ll even give credit to Sakic (another one of my all time favorites) for putting his foot down and staying his course. It’s too bad it didn’t work out between them but its plain for me now to see that Roy wanted to keep going for it year after year and Sakic wanted to build a strong organization and do it the “right” way. Just two different ways of going about it.

I agree with you in that I think Roy’s approach is a little outdated, but I think if he surrounds himself with the right people he might still be successful in this league.

 

[Iceberg]

I have to give credit to Sakic for finally having the guts to pull the plug on Duchene. Too bad he was two years too late and we lost ROR in the process. At least he suckered Dorion and got a great return.
I just hope Sakic realizes this is not the year to buy (see Cole). Ideally we'll miss the playoffs and have a shot at Dahlin.

 

[Piestany88]

I have to give credit to Sakic for finally having the guts to pull the plug on Duchene. Too bad he was two years too late and we lost ROR in the process. At least he suckered Dorion and got a great return.
I just hope Sakic realizes this is not the year to buy (see Cole). Ideally we'll miss the playoffs and have a shot at Dahlin.

I don't think we would want O'Money for 7.5 mil either . Glad to have the return we got for both

 

[Iceberg]

I don't think we would want O'Money for 7.5 mil either . Glad to have the return we got for both

I would like to have ROR + whatever we might have gotten for Duchene 2 years ago + 2 years of better hockey, but that is just me and it doesn't matter now anyway.

 

[McMetal]

I would like to have ROR + whatever we might have gotten for Duchene 2 years ago + 2 years of better hockey, but that is just me and it doesn't matter now anyway.

I loved ROR, but I don't think he's the kind of player you invest 7.5m in and feel good about it afterwards. He's not the kind of high upside 1C you can build an offense around, and 7.5m is too much for a 2C. I think Buffalo is a great example of why we were wise to walk away from him at that price tag (not to mention he asked for 8+ to stay here).

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Yeah don’t get me wrong. Roy is one of my favorite athletes of all time and I’m not so sure he can’t or won’t be successful if given another opportunity. I’ll even give credit to Sakic (another one of my all time favorites) for putting his foot down and staying his course. It’s too bad it didn’t work out between them but its plain for me now to see that Roy wanted to keep going for it year after year and Sakic wanted to build a strong organization and do it the “right” way. Just two different ways of going about it.

I agree with you in that I think Roy’s approach is a little outdated, but I think if he surrounds himself with the right people he might still be successful in this league.

The only reason Sakic is doing what you (and I) think is the right way is because he had no other choice. He definitely wanted more immediate help than we got. Nobody was giving us a win now type move for Duchene though. At least not now. We could have had both, win now and building the right way, had Sakic just listened to Roy instead of waiting for an even better deal that was never going to come.

He also kept guys like Jost, Bigras and Mironov on the Avs thinking they would be better than bringing in some scrubs for those lower roles. It wasn't until we fell towards the bottom of the standings did he do the right thing instead of win now.

 

[Foppa2118]

I'd love to have ROR on this team too, but I think it's been overlooked that this team's success so far this year, is due a lot to the massive chemistry change, after the massive turnover from the start of last year to this year. That chemistry change probably wouldn't have gone down the same way, if they had Nate and ROR locked down as their top 2 centers.

The locker room from last year and beyond had totally different cliches, I think Duchene isolated himself a bit from the rest of the guys, the vets looked entirely burnt out and ready to hang up their skates. It was just a mess.

Now, there's a group of hungry young players trying to prove themselves in the NHL, and they have none of that negativity, or self doubt that the players from previous seasons had from all those bad losses. They have upbeat personalities like Kerfoot, Compher, Jost, Nieto, and Yak coming to the rink with a smile on their face, and showing they belong in the NHL. That's a massive change right there.

There's only eight skaters that were on the Avs at the start of last season. MacK, Landy, Mikko, Soda, Comeau, EJ, Barrie, and Zadorov. It's a whole other team after that. It's more like they dropped those eight Avalanche players in with a new team, than they dropped 16 or so new guys in with the previous eight.

The age of this group fits into the type of players Bednar coaches best as well. Young, hungry to prove themselves hockey players that will do whatever he says. That's why he had success in the AHL as well. He doesn't seem to have success earning respect from NHL vets. He's done a great job molding this young group though.

 

[Iceberg]

I'd love to have ROR on this team too, but I think it's been overlooked that this team's success so far this year, is due a lot to the massive chemistry change, after the massive turnover from the start of last year to this year. That chemistry change probably wouldn't have gone down the same way, if they had Nate and ROR locked down as their top 2 centers.

This is all speculation. Maybe if they had Mack and ROR at center they wouldn't need a chemistry change to begin with. We'll never know.

 

[5280]

The only reason Sakic is doing what you (and I) think is the right way is because he had no other choice. He definitely wanted more immediate help than we got. Nobody was giving us a win now type move for Duchene though. At least not now. We could have had both, win now and building the right way, had Sakic just listened to Roy instead of waiting for an even better deal that was never going to come.

He also kept guys like Jost, Bigras and Mironov on the Avs thinking they would be better than bringing in some scrubs for those lower roles. It wasn't until we fell towards the bottom of the standings did he do the right thing instead of win now.

I'll agree with this aspect of your argument.......both of his major moves HAVE been reactive based on the variables he was presented when he took over (I think that is what you were getting at). I don't think he wanted to trade RoR but it seems like he got the best overall package available at the time when Ryan priced himself out of here. Ryan was one of my favorite players while he was here, but I definitely agree with others who say I don't think he's really worth what he was demanding. Even though it became a reactive trade also, you can't also can't argue with the return he got from Duchene.

I don't really agree with the fact that he "could have had both" because I think our organization really had big, yuge even, problems top to bottom when he took over. A lot of his moves are going to help the team and organization 3-4-5 years down the road. I just don't think Roy wanted to wait, which gets back to my original point.

I guess I have been drinking the "Sakic will make a good GM" koolaid from the beginning. I feel like I know the guy's persona better than some of my family members and I feel it will make him a good GM if left alone to build a team the way he sees fit. No pressure from the Kroenkes or from Roy or anywhere else. Obviously not all he has touched has turned to gold, or much of it yet, but I still feel he has made more good decisions than bad and that is going to eventually turn into a good product on the ice.

IMO we'll get a product of sustained success sort of like Nashville's over the last bunch of years.

 

[5280]

This is all speculation. Maybe if they had Mack and ROR at center they wouldn't need a chemistry change to begin with. We'll never know.

Although I think we were on the same page about Duchene years ago and I love ROR as a player, would you really want to pay our second center that kind of money?

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I'll agree with this aspect of your argument.......both of his major moves HAVE been reactive based on the variables he was presented when he took over (I think that is what you were getting at). I don't think he wanted to trade RoR but it seems like he got the best overall package available at the time when Ryan priced himself out of here. Ryan was one of my favorite players while he was here, but I definitely agree with others who say I don't think he's really worth what he was demanding. Even though it became a reactive trade also, you can't also can't argue with the return he got from Duchene.

I don't really agree with the fact that he "could have had both" because I think our organization really had big, yuge even, problems top to bottom when he took over. A lot of his moves are going to help the team and organization 3-4-5 years down the road. I just don't think Roy wanted to wait, which gets back to my original point.

I guess I have been drinking the "Sakic will make a good GM" koolaid from the beginning. I feel like I know the guy's persona better than some of my family members and I feel it will make him a good GM if left alone to build a team the way he sees fit. No pressure from the Kroenkes or from Roy or anywhere else. Obviously not all he has touched has turned to gold, or much of it yet, but I still feel he has made more good decisions than bad and that is going to eventually turn into a good product on the ice.

IMO we'll get a product of sustained success sort of like Nashville's over the last bunch of years.

A young 2C (Zibs) entering his prime and a potential #1 Dman (Chabot) . I would say that's both win now and planning for the future.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Although I think we were on the same page about Duchene years ago and I love ROR as a player, would you really want to pay our second center that kind of money?

It's not that much with where the cap is headed. And the guy isn't just some 2nd line center. He is one of the top 2Cs (in the sense that the 1C is a scorer and the 2C is a 2way guy) in the league and would be the 2nd best forward on the team. Plus, 2C is a very important position, arguable the 2nd most important forward on the team. Having a guy like O'Reilly would be the perfect compliment to MacK at 1C. I would overpay for that fit regardless of the cap.

 

[Foppa2118]

I've been critical of Sakic, but I think this idea of keeping Nate, and ROR, or Duchene, or whoever, is a bit of wishful thinking.

There's a pretty strong butterfly affect to trading key pieces of your team. Especially for a team that has basically sat at a fork in the road after each of the last few seasons going back to post 2014-15, deciding whether they wanted to go down the path of a rebuild/retool, or push forward and continue to supplement the group they had.

After they went down the path of trading ROR for assets and young players, it set in motion a series of events that are likely to happen now. It reset the competitive window, and that ate of the remaining years of some guys contracts. Duchene was one of those. When they got younger with the ROR trade, the team just wasn't going to be cooperative during his contract. He'd be due for a raise, and that would have an affect on the younger guys that would be due their own raises in the coming years.

Same goes for Barrie. The team just isn't going to be competitive during the remaining years on his contract. This will most likely lead to him being traded because he'll cost too much to retain, and pay for the raises of the young players they've added for the future.

Same might be for EJ, except they don't have anyone right now that could ever replace what he brings. Z is the closes, and right now he's pretty far off from the level of play, and stability that EJ contributes to the team. So he might stay for the long haul. Not to mention he has a NMC, so they'd have to ask him to waive.

Varly's in the same boat. His contract and age would put him in the group to move on from, but the goalie market is so thin, it likely will be better to just resign him. Hopefully with a medium term contract like three years or so. Unless Martin somehow ends up in the starter role next year and proves he can replace Varly.

These are just the decisions of building a team under the cap system. You have to plan according to a certain window you expect to be competitive during, and make sure your key pieces are under contract during that time.

Once you start adding a certain amount of young pieces like Mikko, Compher, Jost, Kerfoot, Girard, Zadorov, Makar, etc and they show signs of being good top 6 or top 4 contributors, it becomes a team that they will inherit. That's where we're at right now. You can see the massive chemistry change. Those young guys are big pieces of the team, and they know it. They've formed a bond, and the wins and losses come based on their performances. It's their team. Not older vets, or stop gap players waiting for the youngsters to get older.

The key parts of the older group move on, and the ones that were the "young guys" under the previous group (Landy, MacK, EJ) become the new stars and leaders of the team. They are the guys right now, and they're forming a new bond with the new young guys.

So many of the good young players that have turned around the peformance of this team, and changed the bad mojo in that locker room, probably wouldn't have been here if they went down the path of trying to compete with too many of the guys from the last rebuild/retool group. The Stastny's, the ROR's, the Duchene's, soon to be the Barrie's, etc.

There just isn't enough room in the lineup, or money under the cap to be fooling around much. You believe in what you got, and you go all in. If they were still all in with Staz, or ROR, or Duchene, they just wouldn't have had the money, or the assets, or the tanking seasons for high draft picks, to have the pieces they're about to go all in with now.

That's why you can't usually just go from one competitive group to a brand new competitive group over night. It takes time in between.

 

[5280]

It's not that much with where the cap is headed. And the guy isn't just some 2nd line center. He is one of the top 2Cs (in the sense that the 1C is a scorer and the 2C is a 2way guy) in the league and would be the 2nd best forward on the team. Plus, 2C is a very important position, arguable the 2nd most important forward on the team. Having a guy like O'Reilly would be the perfect compliment to MacK at 1C. I would overpay for that fit regardless of the cap.

Yeah I think it would have been a great fit but two things......one, we didn’t know where the cap was heading when all of that went down and two, maybe ROR really did just want out because of the bungling of previous regimes.

I can’t comment on Cabot because I don’t really know anything abiut him, I really wanted Hannifin to be honest. I’m really happy with the return we got, though.

 

[Iceberg]

Although I think we were on the same page about Duchene years ago and I love ROR as a player, would you really want to pay our second center that kind of money?

Back in 2015 i would have had no problem paying him that kind of money, even if he is a little overpaid at 7.5M. I always rated ROR above Duchene.

 

[5280]

Back in 2015 i would have had no problem paying him that kind of money, even if he is a little overpaid at 7.5M. I always rated ROR above Duchene.

Cool, maybe your right. I've always like the dude's style too.

 

[Pokecheque]

This seems as good a place as any to put here. Bourne has a great piece in the Athletic about how teams try to generate offense at even strength.

Bourne: How NHL teams try to create at 5-on-5 in the...

Obviously a lot of you won't be able to read it so I'll just take this chunk out as it applies directly to Colorado.

As I said before, the goal is chaos, but that doesn’t mean just flying around randomly and flinging the puck every which way. What teams want to do is summed up in an important phrase: they want to “change the shape” of the defence. When we’re talking defence and we say “structure,” that’s what I mean by shape.

There are a few ways to do that.

One that we see far too much for my liking, is going low-to-high with a pass, with the passer and other forwards generally heading towards the net for a likely shot attempt. That forces the D to pick up guys (“who has who?”) as they head back to the net. I say “far too much,” in that I don’t love the idea of a low percentage shot that is likely going to end up as a 50/50 puck battle after. Why go to a 50/50 chance of having it when you currently have 100 percent possession?

When players do go low-to-high though – and some times you have to — one thing is crucial. They have to do it as early as possible, ideally from below the goal line. So many young players skate the puck up the wall, then make the pass. Now they’ve brought their check up to the point while also giving their D-man less time to make a play. And not all D-men are the most, ahem, offensively efficient, we’ll say. (Few things are as frustrating as making a pass up to your D-man, who then proceeds to throw it into shinpads and kill the offensive zone possession.)

I’d like to see players use another strategy more: moving the puck east-to-west, particularly behind the net.

That's a pretty decent chunk so if this violates any terms please let me know and I'll edit. But Bourne goes on to say that it shouldn't just be "kick it out to your D" sort of thing, the forwards should try to create some stuff lower in the zone by curling in at the half-wall, create some lateral movement to try and get the defensive structure outta whack. The Avs don't do this nearly enough and that, IMO, is on the coaches as much if not more than the players.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The east west by the goal line I think Tampa perfectly executed last night and confused the hell out of our coverage. Another example of the Avs feeling like they are always about 5 years behind the rest of the league, it's like they just discovered Netflix.

 

[CobraAcesS]

This seems as good a place as any to put here. Bourne has a great piece in the Athletic about how teams try to generate offense at even strength.

Bourne: How NHL teams try to create at 5-on-5 in the...

Obviously a lot of you won't be able to read it so I'll just take this chunk out as it applies directly to Colorado.



That's a pretty decent chunk so if this violates any terms please let me know and I'll edit. But Bourne goes on to say that it shouldn't just be "kick it out to your D" sort of thing, the forwards should try to create some stuff lower in the zone by curling in at the half-wall, create some lateral movement to try and get the defensive structure outta whack. The Avs don't do this nearly enough and that, IMO, is on the coaches as much if not more than the players.

I've actually noticed MacK doing exactly what he talks about in that article. That being bringing the pick up out of the corner and then cutting to the middle bringing two players with him. When MacK remembers he has the body of a power forward with his skating ability he creates all kinds of havoc.

I enjoyed what he said about going to the net too. I don't understand why so many skilled players these days have lost the gladiator mentality. It's probably one of the biggest downsides of this generation of player.

 

[MarkT]

I think the low-high strategy is a good one for the team Sakic is trying build. Yeah, it's not a great look if the defenseman is just going to shoot it into someone's shinpads. But if the defenseman is Girard, Barrie, Makar, Timmins, etc.. then moving it back to him is a great strategy. The problem with the east-west passing is it requires players who can gain and maintain possession on challenged pucks. The Avs, until some recent improvement from certain guys, had very few players who could pull that off. So yeah, of course Tampa uses that strategy - because they've got maybe the best forward depth in the entire league, and their defense core, while excellent overall, is not necessarily full of offensive dynamos.

So I'm essentially saying that I don't mind the Avs using the low-high strategy because based on the players Sakic has been acquiring/drafting, that will be a major part of this team's strategy long-term.

 

[Pokecheque]

I think the low-high strategy is a good one for the team Sakic is trying build. Yeah, it's not a great look if the defenseman is just going to shoot it into someone's shinpads. But if the defenseman is Girard, Barrie, Makar, Timmins, etc.. then moving it back to him is a great strategy. The problem with the east-west passing is it requires players who can gain and maintain possession on challenged pucks. The Avs, until some recent improvement from certain guys, had very few players who could pull that off. So yeah, of course Tampa uses that strategy - because they've got maybe the best forward depth in the entire league, and their defense core, while excellent overall, is not necessarily full of offensive dynamos.

So I'm essentially saying that I don't mind the Avs using the low-high strategy because based on the players Sakic has been acquiring/drafting, that will be a major part of this team's strategy long-term.

I think the problem I had with the high-low system the Avs were employing was not the passing and puck movement but rather the complete lack of skating. It was a lot of standing around, puck watching, and reacting, which almost guarantees they lost races to rebounds and what not. What's worse is that because they kept standing still it was easy for the opposition to get sticks in lanes and block passes they were trying to force across or to the middle.

What I've seen the last few games though is that they're now moving within the zone, I'm seeing d-men joining the cycle, and guys seemingly anticipating the play rather than just reacting to it and puck-watching. Hope it lasts.

 

[Sea Eagles]

Joe Sakic - 9/10 this season imo, and should be up there for GM of the year with the exponential improvement in our team, improvement in overall culture, and his patience in getting the right deal (making tough calls like sending Colborne down).