Player Discussion Jimmy Vesey Part II

[Zats Muccarello]

The list of players who were 23-24 in their first-year in the NHL who recorded 25 to 30 points is really nothing to inspire confidence about Vesey's future.

Perhaps he'll break the mold.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&season_start=1&season_end=1&rookie=Y&age_min=23&age_max=24&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=points&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

Pominville isn't all that bad. I'd be happy if Vesey followed a similar trajectory.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Pominville isn't all that bad. I'd be happy if Vesey followed a similar trajectory.

My hunch is many on Silvers list did not come straight from college. I also just saw Rene Robert (French Connection Line) on Silvers list. This team could use a scorer like Robert.

 

[silverfish]

My hunch is many on Silvers list did not come straight from college. I also just saw Rene Robert (French Connection Line) on Silvers list. This team could use a scorer like Robert.

This link includes a filter for NCAA players. http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&season_start=1&season_end=1&rookie=Y&age_min=23&age_max=24&am_team_id=ncaa&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=points&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

My favorite part about posting links like this, though, is that people will look for one good name, and then attach to that, instead of the 20+ bad names on there. That's my favorite.

"Tyler Bozak is on here. He's not bad!"

 

[TheGuarantee]

This link includes a filter for NCAA players. http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&season_start=1&season_end=1&rookie=Y&age_min=23&age_max=24&am_team_id=ncaa&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=points&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

My favorite part about posting links like this, though, is that people will look for one good name, and then attach to that, instead of the 20+ bad names on there. That's my favorite.

"Tyler Bozak is on here. He's not bad!"

I'm trying to figure out your point to all of this

 

[silverfish]

I'm trying to figure out your point to all of this

Generally, 4-year NCAA players who enter the NHL at age 23, and record anywhere from 25-30 points aren't very good at hockey.

Maybe Vesey is the exception, maybe he's the rule.

Is context ever a bad thing?

Draw your own conclusion?

Etc...

 

[TheGuarantee]

Generally, 4-year NCAA players who enter the NHL at age 23, and record anywhere from 25-30 points aren't very good at hockey.

Maybe Vesey is the exception, maybe he's the rule.

Is context ever a bad thing?

Draw your own conclusion?

Etc...

So you're basing your comparisons strictly off points, got it

 

[silverfish]

So you're basing your comparisons strictly off points, got it

What do you want to base them off of, advanced stats? Because Vesey is Girardi-bad when it comes to those. Gathering a cluster of 'similar' players to Vesey based solely off points is only doing Vesey favors. The Play Index on Hockey-Reference, IMO, is a great tool to identify similar players.

My "eye-test" also said Vesey isn't very good (yet). However, I have not had a chance to watch a lot of these players that he compares to enough to garner valuable insights, thus, I default to other things that we know, like points/stats.

Feel free at any time to bring anything to this discussion above sarcastic statements. Happy to hear every-side of the story.

 

[NickyFotiu]

This link includes a filter for NCAA players. http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&season_start=1&season_end=1&rookie=Y&age_min=23&age_max=24&am_team_id=ncaa&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=points&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

My favorite part about posting links like this, though, is that people will look for one good name, and then attach to that, instead of the 20+ bad names on there. That's my favorite.

"Tyler Bozak is on here. He's not bad!"

Should we only look at the bad players? I do not care if a guy is 21, 22, or 23 a rookie coming in to the NHL straight from college will have a period of adjustment to the speed on the NHL game. Some do it better than others but making that direct jump is not easy. Many will not do it and end up spending some time in the minors. 16 goals for any rookie age 21 to 51 is darn respectable in my book.

 

[TheGuarantee]

What do you want to base them off of, advanced stats? Because Vesey is Girardi-bad when it comes to those. Gathering a cluster of 'similar' players to Vesey based solely off points is only doing Vesey favors. The Play Index on Hockey-Reference, IMO, is a great tool to identify similar players.

My "eye-test" also said Vesey isn't very good (yet). However, I have not had a chance to watch a lot of these players that he compares to enough to garner valuable insights, thus, I default to other things that we know, like points/stats.

Feel free at any time to bring anything to this discussion above sarcastic statements. Happy to hear every-side of the story.

I just don't know what you're trying to prove, that Vesey isn't good? I understand you're trying to build context, but into what, that we should write the guy off because 15 of the 20 names didn't amount to anything in your incredibly small sample size with no actual indication in how 99% of that list played hockey.

 

[silverfish]

Should we only look at the bad players? I do not care if a guy is 21, 22, or 23 a rookie coming in to the NHL straight from college will have a period of adjustment to the speed on the NHL game. Some do it better than others but making that direct jump is not easy. Many will not do it and end up spending some time in the minors. 16 goals for any rookie age 21 to 51 is darn respectable in my book.

You shouldn't only look at the bad players. You shouldn't only look at the good players. You should look at the whole picture.

I just don't know what you're trying to prove, that Vesey isn't good? I understand you're trying to build context, but into what, that we should write the guy off because 15 of the 20 names didn't amount to anything in your incredibly small sample size with no actual indication in how 99% of that list played hockey.

It's an incredibly small sample size because there aren't a ton of NHLers who play four years NCAA and enter the league at 23.

 

[NickyFotiu]

You shouldn't only look at the bad players. You shouldn't only look at the good players. You should look at the whole picture.

It's an incredibly small sample size because there aren't a ton of NHLers who play four years NCAA and enter the league at 23.

Ed Johnstone was on your original link. That is all I saw because Eddie was totally the man. The crowd used to chant Eddie, Eddie, Eddie, as well as EJ EJ EJ. He was so cool. He produced a couple of 30 goal years. Plus when guys tried to test him he did not back down at all.

 

[TheGuarantee]

You shouldn't only look at the bad players. You shouldn't only look at the good players. You should look at the whole picture.



It's an incredibly small sample size because there aren't a ton of NHLers who play four years NCAA and enter the league at 23.

Okay and that just goes back to my point, what the hell are you trying to prove? Not only is it a hilarious sample size, but about 65% of those name date back before 1990.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Okay and that just goes back to my point, what the hell are you trying to prove? Not only is it a hilarious sample size, but about 65% of those name date back before 1990.

I don't think he is trying to prove anything, but raise awareness as to what Vesey is realistically is. Some fans expect him to be as good as Kreider but I just don't see it. He is a career 3rd line winger to me.

 

[TheGuarantee]

I don't think he is trying to prove anything, but raise awareness as to what Vesey is realistically is. Some fans expect him to be as good as Kreider but I just don't see it. He is a career 3rd line winger to me.

But there's nothing to even see with that list. It's more ridiculous to write him off because of names in 1983 (when scoring was a taaaad higher) than to believe he can be a top 6 winger

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

But there's nothing to even see with that list. It's more ridiculous to write him off because of names in 1983 (when scoring was a taaaad higher) than to believe he can be a top 6 winger

He posts a list of players in a similar situation. That's a better base for arguments than comparing him to rookie skaters in general.

There is a huge difference between a 23-year old rookie coming through college and a 19-year old rookie coming through CHL. That 19-year old has 4 more years to develop.

 

[TheGuarantee]

He posts a list of players in a similar situation. That's a better base for arguments than comparing him to rookie skaters in general.

There is a huge difference between a 23-year old rookie coming through college and a 19-year old rookie coming through CHL. That 19-year old has 4 more years to develop.

I understand that, but it's also an incredibly small sample size showing a majority of players from a very different era of hockey. It's not really anything to even be able to go off of.

Yeah for sure, but that doesn't mean that he's done developing either. Silverfish has also compared Brady Skjei to John Moore many times, as well as having an odd disdain for JT Miller. I can definitely see Vesey in the category of Miller for SF. Use whatever you can to fit your narrative I guess....

 

[silverfish]

I understand that, but it's also an incredibly small sample size showing a majority of players from a very different era of hockey. It's not really anything to even be able to go off of.

Yeah for sure, but that doesn't mean that he's done developing either. Silverfish has also compared Brady Skjei to John Moore many times, as well as having an odd disdain for JT Miller. I can definitely see Vesey in the category of Miller for SF. Use whatever you can to fit your narrative I guess....

Can you at least grasp that it's a small sample size because of how rare it is? That's really the only point I've been making.

Using whatever I can to fit my narrative is laughable. Find me any objective evidence that says Vesey had a strong rookie year. 16 goals is nice, but he slowed down dramatically post all-star break (4g in 31gp). He certainly wouldn't be the first NCAA rookie, or rookie in general, to do that, though. All of his stats are pretty bad, besides goals. The eye-test matches the metrics, he was putrid for a lot of the year (my eye-test, my opinion, etc...)

If you'd like to build a case to the opposite, I'm happy to have a conversation with you. If you're here to bash just to bash because I said something about Skjei mid-way through his rookie year that was true at the time, or you don't like my opinions about JT Miller, then we're just wasting each other's time, no?

 

[Zibanejbread]

I'm not a big Vesey fan at all. In fact, when I found out we got him, I literally said "cool."... however, to get a "free" asset is never a bad thing. He started strong, but after that awful lull in the middle half of the season, I think he finished positively. Hopefully he carries that into this offseason and comes into next year as a more complete player.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Can you at least grasp that it's a small sample size because of how rare it is? That's really the only point I've been making.

Using whatever I can to fit my narrative is laughable. Find me any objective evidence that says Vesey had a strong rookie year. 16 goals is nice, but he slowed down dramatically post all-star break (4g in 31gp). He certainly wouldn't be the first NCAA rookie, or rookie in general, to do that, though. All of his stats are pretty bad, besides goals. The eye-test matches the metrics, he was putrid for a lot of the year (my eye-test, my opinion, etc...)

If you'd like to build a case to the opposite, I'm happy to have a conversation with you. If you're here to bash just to bash because I said something about Skjei mid-way through his rookie year that was true at the time, or you don't like my opinions about JT Miller, then we're just wasting each other's time, no?

Typical response from you. Yet you're admitting of it being a rare occurance and then compare him to players in the 80's and say you're not confident in him breaking that mold. Hmm okay.

I'm not making an argument, I'm simply pointing out the major flaw in what you're saying and you don't like that. Vesey is a player that could very well be a bust or very well become a 20-20 guy. I just think it's insane that you criticize people for pointing out a good name in your list of ~25(16 of whom are from pre-1990 where he wasn't even born yet).

 

[silverfish]

Typical response from you. Yet you're admitting of it being a rare occurance and then compare him to players in the 80's and say you're not confident in him breaking that mold. Hmm okay.

I'm not making an argument, I'm simply pointing out the major flaw in what you're saying and you don't like that. Vesey is a player that could very well be a bust or very well become a 20-20 guy. I just think it's insane that you criticize people for pointing out a good name in your list of ~25(16 of whom are from pre-1990 where he wasn't even born yet).

You're failing to grasp anything that I'm saying. You think I'm painting a narrative because you've grown to read my posts with a certain vitriol in mind. That's fine, and totally your prerogative.

If you're interested in more modern data, post (first) lockout, only three skaters including Jimmy Vesey are NCAA alum, made their debut at age 23 or 24, and recorded 25 to 30 points in their first year. Vesey, Bozak, Conacher.

Point: It's rare.

Analysis: Not really making any. Just saying that it's rare.

Narrative: You tell me.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2006&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=1&rookie=N&age_min=23&age_max=24&am_team_id=ncaa&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=25&c2stat=points&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

 

[NickyFotiu]

I dont remember Adam Oates having a huge rookie year after he graduated RPI. I think he may have even been sent down to the minors. He turned out pretty well.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I dont remember Adam Oates having a huge rookie year after he graduated RPI. I think he may have even been sent down to the minors. He turned out pretty well.

Yes, but for every Adam Oates there are hundreds of players in similar situations who never turn into more than a bottom-6 player.

 

[silverfish]

I dont remember Adam Oates having a huge rookie year after he graduated RPI. I think he may have even been sent down to the minors. He turned out pretty well.

Would you say that Adam Oates is the exception or the rule?

I'm not out here guaranteeing that Vesey won't amount to anything more than a third-liner in the NHL. I have no idea. No one does. But I think I can comfortably say that he won't be as good as Oates, and that it's far more likely that Vesey is a Conacher than an Oates, or maybe he falls somewhere in the middle and becomes a Bozak.

Who the **** knows? Not me. Not you. Not TheGuarnatee. Not Jeff Gorton.

It's the same point I was making last off-season before and after we signed Vesey. Very cool that we got another free asset. Nothing wrong with that. But people were penciling him in for a 40 point rookie season, and 65 point primes, and it just never sat right with me because history, and precedent, shows that four-year NCAA players who make their debuts at age 23 don't tend to amount to that much.

Then at the end of October, everyone was telling me to 'eat my crow' on Vesey, because he was shooting 33% Doesn't take a genius to tell you that wouldn't last.

And now I'm seeing the same thing. "Wow, he had a great playoffs, I'm sure he'll build off that for his sophomore season". Maybe he will, maybe he'll just be a 30 point player, too. I don't know. You don't know.

People were calling Kevin Hayes a Joe Thornton lite after his rookie year. Remember how quickly the board turned on him? I do. Kevin Hayes's sophomore season was so above and beyond the rookie campaign that Vesey just put in, too, and the board CRUSHED him after that year.

But I'm the guy who compared Skjei to John Moore when they were comparable, and continues to suggest the Rangers should trade JT Miller because they had a surplus of wingers and a dearth of d-men. How criminal of me. So what the **** do I know. Clearly less than I think I do. You know, for how much weight this board puts into playoff performances, you'd think more people would be on board with that...

Let's check this thread a year from now, and call it a night.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Id be fine with Vesey if he becomes a strong 3rd liner. He was a free asset for us. I dont worry about people overhyping Vesey, Hayes, Buch, etc. I'm confident I can watch a guy play as a Ranger and then make my own opinion outside of hype.

 

[Miller Time NYR]

Id be fine with Vesey if he becomes a strong 3rd liner. He was a free asset for us. I dont worry about people overhyping Vesey, Hayes, Buch, etc. I'm confident I can watch a guy play as a Ranger and then make my own opinion outside of hype.

The hype around him was hilarious, he was slotted to be riding shotgun to Eichel and was the next best thing coming out of the NCAA until the day he signed with us and than overnight everyone hyping him up started ******** on him. Imo his ceiling is a good 2nd line winger and an exceptional 3rd liner which im totally cool with from a free asset.