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"You're a boring old man"
Coaching:
- I say slight favor to Bankers but I understand if folks want to make this a wash given Babcock's far superior regular season resume. Gorman won 2 titles in 8 years, both coming in back to back years with less than stellar teams to say the least. Look at the rosters of Chicago and Montreal (Maroons) and compare them to the Canadians, Rangers, and Bruins of that time. The disparity of talent is quite telling. He was extremely innovative with aggressive fore checking teams and was a noted players coach who always seemed to get the best out of his guys.
Leaderhip/Intangibles:
-Nobody is going to beat the Bankers here. Gretzky, Clapper, Kennedy, Foyston, Griffis, Getzlaf, Westfall is a huge amount of real world leadership and intangibles. It's something I focused heavily on so I'd expect to be ahead here. Most of those guys also possess anywhere from good to elite performances in the biggest moments as well.
Forwards:
-I don't see a single line where the Leafs are as good or better than Pittsburgh (me).
My C talent and depth is astronomically better than Toronto IMO and historically speaking, C is the most important position on Cup winning teams IMO. The lack of offense at C for Toronto is concerning because it puts a lot of added pressure on the wings to boost the lines, and beyond Delvecchio and Selanne (both on the same line), the Leafs aren't sporting much in the way of offense on the wings. Bondra is their next highest VsX at 72. Nobody on the 2nd line is above 74.3. And while the Bankers certainly don't possess a ton of scoring depth on the wings, we counter that by having elite scoring down the middle, relative to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th lines, (Gretzky 155.6 first line, Stewart is 90.3 second line, Kennedy 78.8 third line, Getzlaf 83.7 on the 4th line).
It's also important to note real life chemistry the Bankers posses at F. Nels Stewart played 2 seasons with Punch Broadbent next to him at RW, including his dominant 1925-26 Hart campaign that saw the Maroons win the Stanley Cup. Ted Kennedy played essentially a decade with/next to Sid Smith at LW and they won 3 Cups together in Toronto.
Fedorov isn't exactly the right type of C for Selanne but Delvecchio was a brilliant play maker. I do think this line can be pushed around some physically though and you better believe the Bankers under Gorman will make sure they chip that particular line any chance they can get. Westfall, Broadbent, Giroux, Foyston, Paiment, Bourne were all good to great fore checkers on the wings and Kennedy was arguably the best in the business when he played. Stewart was extremely physical as well, although he did much less in terms of fore checking and instead gave way to his wingers. I don't really know who will be doing a lot of the board work though for the Leafs on their top line.
I don't know how much offense the Leafs second line will generate to be honest. Their top scorer is Keon at 74.3. Larmer is 71.9 and Propp is 67.2. That's a very bleak amount of offense for a scoring line in the ATD. It certainly is stronger defensively but the Bankers have Nels Stewart at 90.3, Claude Giroux at 88 (100 in his full season at LW) and Broadbent who doesn't have a VsX score because a lot of his career was pre consolidation, but I'd say it's lower than anyone on the Leafs. Still, the Bankers enjoy a pretty big advantage offensively here.
The Bankers possess the best pure defensive forward in the series with Ed Westfall IMO and if we need to deploy it in such a manner, the best checking line with Smith-Kennedy-Westfall. And Westfall was a player who boosted his offense by a pretty decent margin come playoff time (0.62) vs regular season (0.51) and got few PP opportunities. Bob Bourne would slide up next to Kennedy late in games while protecting a lead given his skill set as an elite skater and solid checking F.
I think the 4th lines are well constructed for both teams but the clear advantage lies in Getzlaf at C. Bourne and Paiement are a wash with Muller and Nystrom IMO but Getzlaf outclasses Dale Hunter by a wide margin.
Defense:
-This is certainly where the Leafs have an advantage, especially comparing top pairs but then again Orr-Horton might be the very best top pair ever seen in the ATD (at least since the very early days I'd wager). Orr's technically on the wrong side (AFAIK he played mainly RD) but he's the best ever so I really don't think it matters much. Horton compliments him well in that he was definitely slanted towards defense first but was sneaky good in moving the puck, although he his use in that regard is not really needed. They're obviously going to see a lot of Gretzky and Nels Stewart's lines so it's a battle that will rage each game and I'd wager both sides will have their moments in the sun. And while Lapierriere and Clapper are significantly lower on the totem pole all around they're still well balanced and fit like a glove IMO. Clapper (at his peak on D) was touted as equal to Eddie Shore so for at least a brief time Clapper could play at an all time, elite level on the back end. His intangibles and leadership will be paramount along with Lappy's iron clad positioning and shot blocking ability.
Pretty interesting to see both second pairs end up being real life combo's. Brewer-Stanley are probably very slightly ahead of Stapleton/White, mainly due to the fact they won 4 cups together, but looking at the regular season AS nods, you see 7 combined for the Leafs and 6 for the Bankers. Stapleton did win the WHA's Murphy trophy in 1974 (their Norris) over JC Tremblay so that counts for at least a little something extra IMO.
A couple of more nuanced items that I think help the Bankers here are even strength usage and play and much cleaner play between the 2 defensive corps.
Take a look at this usage and impact the Bankers Dman had courtesy of overpass. Stapleton and White were used just as much as Orr at ES over essentially the same # of games. And both of them were actually used just a tad bit more than Tim Horton and also provided better returns when on the ice vs off than the donut man. 3 of the top 6 defensemen all time (from 1960 onward) in terms of even strength usage are on the Bankers.
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I think it's also important to note that the Leafs have multiple Dmen who were VERY high up the PIM's leaderboard. It's something to consider given the Bankers elite PP units. Gus Mortson had nearly 1400 PIM's (led league 4 times) in nearly 800 games. . Brewer had over 1000 in 600+ games (led league twice) and Baun had almost 1500 in 900+ games.
Whereas the Bankers are relatively clean across the board. Clapper had 400+ in in 800+ games. Lappy 674 in 691. Stapleton 350 in 635 games. White 495 in 604. Frank Patrick wasn't known as a heavily penalized player in the PCHA. Si Griffis is probably the only guy in our D corps that you might worry about taking an extra penalty somewhere and even he doesn't seem to match up with the Leafs worst in that department.
Overall, the Leafs enjoy a pretty sizable advantage here. Much like the Bankers at F.
Goalie(s)
-This (and special teams) is where the series is more or less decided for me, in my favor. Patrick Roy vs Johnny Bower. You have the greatest goalie of all time (in the minds of most) vs a below average starter in a 24 team league. I like Bower as a solid guy who will generally play ho-hum game for you in net but he's up against the best big game netminder ever. Roy's got 3 Smythe's to his name. 4 Cups. And the one time his team did lose in the Cup finals, he was flat out tremendous. Considering goalie is the only position to be on the ice for all 60 minutes (no other player comes remotely close to that), the value an elite netminder can bring to a team per game is incredible, positively or negatively speaking.
See the graph's below by Hockey Outsider and company showing just how dominant Roy was as a playoff goalie.
Special Teams:
-Given the Leafs lack of scoring punch pretty much across the board at F, the Bankers pretty handily own the PP, head to head. And I absolutely think we're slightly better on the kill as well considering Laperriere and White from a pure kill standpoint are 2 of the best all time (see graphs below). 76% usage is absurd for Laperriere but it goes to show you how valuable he was to Toe Blake and Claude Ruel. Even Bill White was used more than Orr and Horton on the PK.
I think Kennedy-Westfall is superior to Keon-Larmer due to the much bigger gap between Westfall (one of the 5 best PK forwards of all time) and Larmer. Kennedy was heavily used on the PK and while I give the edge to Keon, Kennedy's elite faceoff ability is sure to help in this area specifically.
And give me Gretzky/Bourne-Martinec over Propp-Fedorov. Gretzky when he plays was so far and away the most dangerous scorer down a man ever and his presence alone forces the PP to be extremely careful and in my mind, probably too passive because of it. Martinec is, after getting a slew of information from our HoH brother Batis, a legit 1st line killer here and as a 2nd unit guy is probably one of the better players.
- I say slight favor to Bankers but I understand if folks want to make this a wash given Babcock's far superior regular season resume. Gorman won 2 titles in 8 years, both coming in back to back years with less than stellar teams to say the least. Look at the rosters of Chicago and Montreal (Maroons) and compare them to the Canadians, Rangers, and Bruins of that time. The disparity of talent is quite telling. He was extremely innovative with aggressive fore checking teams and was a noted players coach who always seemed to get the best out of his guys.
Leaderhip/Intangibles:
-Nobody is going to beat the Bankers here. Gretzky, Clapper, Kennedy, Foyston, Griffis, Getzlaf, Westfall is a huge amount of real world leadership and intangibles. It's something I focused heavily on so I'd expect to be ahead here. Most of those guys also possess anywhere from good to elite performances in the biggest moments as well.
Forwards:
-I don't see a single line where the Leafs are as good or better than Pittsburgh (me).
My C talent and depth is astronomically better than Toronto IMO and historically speaking, C is the most important position on Cup winning teams IMO. The lack of offense at C for Toronto is concerning because it puts a lot of added pressure on the wings to boost the lines, and beyond Delvecchio and Selanne (both on the same line), the Leafs aren't sporting much in the way of offense on the wings. Bondra is their next highest VsX at 72. Nobody on the 2nd line is above 74.3. And while the Bankers certainly don't possess a ton of scoring depth on the wings, we counter that by having elite scoring down the middle, relative to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th lines, (Gretzky 155.6 first line, Stewart is 90.3 second line, Kennedy 78.8 third line, Getzlaf 83.7 on the 4th line).
It's also important to note real life chemistry the Bankers posses at F. Nels Stewart played 2 seasons with Punch Broadbent next to him at RW, including his dominant 1925-26 Hart campaign that saw the Maroons win the Stanley Cup. Ted Kennedy played essentially a decade with/next to Sid Smith at LW and they won 3 Cups together in Toronto.
Fedorov isn't exactly the right type of C for Selanne but Delvecchio was a brilliant play maker. I do think this line can be pushed around some physically though and you better believe the Bankers under Gorman will make sure they chip that particular line any chance they can get. Westfall, Broadbent, Giroux, Foyston, Paiment, Bourne were all good to great fore checkers on the wings and Kennedy was arguably the best in the business when he played. Stewart was extremely physical as well, although he did much less in terms of fore checking and instead gave way to his wingers. I don't really know who will be doing a lot of the board work though for the Leafs on their top line.
I don't know how much offense the Leafs second line will generate to be honest. Their top scorer is Keon at 74.3. Larmer is 71.9 and Propp is 67.2. That's a very bleak amount of offense for a scoring line in the ATD. It certainly is stronger defensively but the Bankers have Nels Stewart at 90.3, Claude Giroux at 88 (100 in his full season at LW) and Broadbent who doesn't have a VsX score because a lot of his career was pre consolidation, but I'd say it's lower than anyone on the Leafs. Still, the Bankers enjoy a pretty big advantage offensively here.
The Bankers possess the best pure defensive forward in the series with Ed Westfall IMO and if we need to deploy it in such a manner, the best checking line with Smith-Kennedy-Westfall. And Westfall was a player who boosted his offense by a pretty decent margin come playoff time (0.62) vs regular season (0.51) and got few PP opportunities. Bob Bourne would slide up next to Kennedy late in games while protecting a lead given his skill set as an elite skater and solid checking F.
I think the 4th lines are well constructed for both teams but the clear advantage lies in Getzlaf at C. Bourne and Paiement are a wash with Muller and Nystrom IMO but Getzlaf outclasses Dale Hunter by a wide margin.
Defense:
-This is certainly where the Leafs have an advantage, especially comparing top pairs but then again Orr-Horton might be the very best top pair ever seen in the ATD (at least since the very early days I'd wager). Orr's technically on the wrong side (AFAIK he played mainly RD) but he's the best ever so I really don't think it matters much. Horton compliments him well in that he was definitely slanted towards defense first but was sneaky good in moving the puck, although he his use in that regard is not really needed. They're obviously going to see a lot of Gretzky and Nels Stewart's lines so it's a battle that will rage each game and I'd wager both sides will have their moments in the sun. And while Lapierriere and Clapper are significantly lower on the totem pole all around they're still well balanced and fit like a glove IMO. Clapper (at his peak on D) was touted as equal to Eddie Shore so for at least a brief time Clapper could play at an all time, elite level on the back end. His intangibles and leadership will be paramount along with Lappy's iron clad positioning and shot blocking ability.
Pretty interesting to see both second pairs end up being real life combo's. Brewer-Stanley are probably very slightly ahead of Stapleton/White, mainly due to the fact they won 4 cups together, but looking at the regular season AS nods, you see 7 combined for the Leafs and 6 for the Bankers. Stapleton did win the WHA's Murphy trophy in 1974 (their Norris) over JC Tremblay so that counts for at least a little something extra IMO.
A couple of more nuanced items that I think help the Bankers here are even strength usage and play and much cleaner play between the 2 defensive corps.
Take a look at this usage and impact the Bankers Dman had courtesy of overpass. Stapleton and White were used just as much as Orr at ES over essentially the same # of games. And both of them were actually used just a tad bit more than Tim Horton and also provided better returns when on the ice vs off than the donut man. 3 of the top 6 defensemen all time (from 1960 onward) in terms of even strength usage are on the Bankers.
Even Strength - Defencemen
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Player GP $ESP/82 $ESGF/82 $ESGA/82 R-ON R-OFF EV% Bobby Orr 657 64 130 66 1.99 1.03 49% Pat Stapleton 635 31 104 87 1.18 1.14 49% Bill White 604 24 93 75 1.24 1.06 49% Pierre Pilote 660 36 108 81 1.34 1.11 49% Tim Horton 1010 24 97 83 1.16 1.17 48% Jacques Laperriere 691 21 104 77 1.35 1.29 47% Marcel Pronovost 636 21 93 91 1.02 0.98 46% Gilles Marotte 808 23 85 99 0.86 0.87 46% Leo Boivin 728 23 87 115 0.76 0.73 46% Erik Karlsson 556 44 85 84 1.01 0.95 46% Harry Howell 932 21 88 101 0.87 0.77 46% Ian Turnbull 628 33 86 82 1.05 1.02 45% J.C. Tremblay 796 25 101 78 1.30 1.30 45% Moose Vasko 600 19 89 83 1.07 1.09 45% Brian Leetch 1205 33 84 80 1.06 0.97 45% Barry Gibbs 792 19 74 85 0.87 0.95 45% Gary Bergman 838 26 86 88 0.97 0.90 44% Bob Baun 826 19 88 77 1.15 1.16 44% Carl Brewer 533 27 100 70 1.42 1.07 44% Allan Stanley 627 26 92 79 1.17 1.21 44% Ted Harris 788 19 84 71 1.18 1.17 43% Dale Rolfe 509 19 83 79 1.06 1.02 43% Jim Schoenfeld 719 20 88 68 1.29 1.19 43% Paul Coffey 1409 41 95 77 1.23 1.20 43% Jim Neilson 1024 22 81 86 0.94 1.00 43% Dallas Smith 889 24 96 76 1.27 1.34 43% Borje Salming 1148 28 86 75 1.14 0.82 43% Larry Robinson 1384 32 97 61 1.60 1.34 43% Reed Larson 904 29 73 81 0.90 0.82 43% Denis Potvin 1060 36 87 58 1.49 1.23 43% Duncan Keith 913 33 88 73 1.20 1.08 43% Serge Savard 1040 23 94 65 1.44 1.52 43% Terry Harper 1066 17 85 68 1.24 1.04 43% Ted Green 620 26 89 100 0.89 1.07 42% Ron Stackhouse 889 25 82 79 1.05 0.82 42% Dave Burrows 724 14 76 85 0.89 0.99 42% Carol Vadnais 1087 24 78 82 0.96 1.00 42% Phil Russell 1016 22 75 73 1.04 0.96 42% P.K. Subban 500 31 77 69 1.11 0.99 42% Drew Doughty 688 25 72 63 1.15 1.02 42% Scott Stevens 1635 28 83 63 1.31 1.19 42% Guy Lapointe 884 28 91 64 1.41 1.66 42% Bob Stewart 575 14 62 95 0.65 0.75 42% Dustin Byfuglien 521 35 79 78 1.02 0.92 42% Brad Park 1115 33 89 64 1.40 1.20 42% Alex Pietrangelo 539 33 77 68 1.13 1.14 42% Ray Bourque 1612 35 86 63 1.37 0.95 42% Victor Hedman 549 35 81 74 1.08 0.99 42% Bob Dailey 561 26 74 68 1.09 1.18 41% Derian Hatcher 1045 21 73 70 1.04 1.10 41% Robert Svehla 655 25 73 70 1.04 0.95 41% Jocelyn Guevremont 571 24 79 75 1.05 0.97 41% Dion Phaneuf 902 22 74 73 1.02 0.97 41% Barry Beck 615 23 75 73 1.02 0.84 41% Nicklas Lidstrom 1564 30 88 62 1.41 1.17 41% Sandis Ozolinsh 875 30 72 70 1.02 0.96 41% Joni Pitkanen 535 28 77 75 1.03 0.87 41% Brian Engblom 659 15 81 66 1.22 1.11 41% Tracy Pratt 580 13 64 78 0.82 0.84 40% Kevin Hatcher 1157 24 73 72 1.01 1.04 40% Bob Murdoch 757 21 78 65 1.20 1.09 40% Craig Hartsburg 570 21 71 67 1.06 1.01 40%
I think it's also important to note that the Leafs have multiple Dmen who were VERY high up the PIM's leaderboard. It's something to consider given the Bankers elite PP units. Gus Mortson had nearly 1400 PIM's (led league 4 times) in nearly 800 games. . Brewer had over 1000 in 600+ games (led league twice) and Baun had almost 1500 in 900+ games.
Whereas the Bankers are relatively clean across the board. Clapper had 400+ in in 800+ games. Lappy 674 in 691. Stapleton 350 in 635 games. White 495 in 604. Frank Patrick wasn't known as a heavily penalized player in the PCHA. Si Griffis is probably the only guy in our D corps that you might worry about taking an extra penalty somewhere and even he doesn't seem to match up with the Leafs worst in that department.
Overall, the Leafs enjoy a pretty sizable advantage here. Much like the Bankers at F.
Goalie(s)
-This (and special teams) is where the series is more or less decided for me, in my favor. Patrick Roy vs Johnny Bower. You have the greatest goalie of all time (in the minds of most) vs a below average starter in a 24 team league. I like Bower as a solid guy who will generally play ho-hum game for you in net but he's up against the best big game netminder ever. Roy's got 3 Smythe's to his name. 4 Cups. And the one time his team did lose in the Cup finals, he was flat out tremendous. Considering goalie is the only position to be on the ice for all 60 minutes (no other player comes remotely close to that), the value an elite netminder can bring to a team per game is incredible, positively or negatively speaking.
See the graph's below by Hockey Outsider and company showing just how dominant Roy was as a playoff goalie.
Career Save Percentage PLAYOFFS - minimum 1,000 adjusted shots
* This table is now updated for 2017
This table shows why it's critically important to take the era into consideration when evaluating goalies' playoff performances. For example, Grant Fuhr posted a seemingly unimpressive 89.9% save percentage between 1984 and 1988, when he helped the Oilers win four Stanley Cups in five years. Adjusted for era, Fuhr stopped 91.8% of the shots he faced during those four seasons. That's not quite elite, but it's a very strong performance over a large sample size (79). That doesn't even take into account the strong likelihood that Fuhr faced tougher quality shots than average due to playing on a run-and-gun team.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Goalie Shots Saves Sv% Tim Thomas 1,526 1,409 92.4% Olaf Kolzig 1,446 1,330 92.0% Patrick Roy* 7,218 6,638 92.0% John Vanbiesbrouck 2,030 1,865 91.9% Tuukka Rask 1,639 1,505 91.8% Ken Wregget 1,767 1,622 91.8% Dominik Hasek 3,422 3,140 91.7% Braden Holtby 1,774 1,627 91.7% Ed Belfour* 4,641 4,256 91.7% Jean-Sebastien Giguere 1,546 1,416 91.6% Craig Anderson 1,482 1,356 91.5% Kirk McLean 2,099 1,918 91.4% Patrick Lalime 1,105 1,010 91.4% Cam Ward 1,137 1,038 91.3% Dwayne Roloson 1,478 1,348 91.2% Felix Potvin 2,186 1,992 91.1% Curtis Joseph 4,044 3,685 91.1% Martin Brodeur 5,439 4,953 91.1% Grant Fuhr* 3,966 3,610 91.0% Jonathan Quick 2,322 2,113 91.0% Henrik Lundqvist 3,739 3,402 91.0% Mike Liut 1,064 968 91.0% Mike Richter 2,182 1,985 91.0% Miikka Kiprusoff 1,679 1,527 90.9% Bill Ranford 1,536 1,396 90.9% Tom Barrasso 3,521 3,197 90.8% Roberto Luongo 2,087 1,895 90.8% Ryan Miller 1,697 1,540 90.7% Chris Osgood 3,246 2,943 90.7% Jimmy Howard 1,424 1,291 90.6% Corey Crawford 2,522 2,284 90.6% Nikolai Khabibulin 2,155 1,951 90.5% Ron Hextall 2,632 2,382 90.5% Pekka Rinne 1,970 1,781 90.4% Reggie Lemelin 1,147 1,036 90.3% Marty Turco 1,345 1,215 90.3% Kelly Hrudey 2,531 2,286 90.3% Carey Price 1,702 1,536 90.3% Sean Burke 1,101 993 90.2% Greg Millen 1,336 1,205 90.2% Brian Boucher 1,069 964 90.2% Don Beaupre 1,538 1,386 90.1% Mike Vernon 3,493 3,146 90.1% Jose Theodore 1,730 1,559 90.1% Jon Casey 1,789 1,611 90.1% Andy Moog 2,655 2,385 89.8% Marc-Andre Fleury 3,210 2,882 89.8% Evgeni Nabokov 2,314 2,077 89.7% Ilya Bryzgalov 1,304 1,169 89.7% Arturs Irbe 1,513 1,357 89.6% Antti Niemi 1,808 1,618 89.5% Brian Elliott 1,063 951 89.5% Ray Emery 1,051 937 89.2%
Keep in mind that career save percentage is, by definition, a career average. Tom Barrasso had a few rough playoffs at the start and end of his career, and that dragged down his average. His career average of 90.8% is barely above average; if one focuses on his prime from 1988 to 1996, Barrasso's save percentage rises to a very strong 91.6%.
Patrick Roy is tied for the second highest career save percentage out of any goalie who faced at least 1,000 shots (Roy faced more shots than the other top five goalies combined). He's also faced 33% more shots than the next closest goalie (Brodeur). No goalie during the past thirty years has surpassed (or even approached) Roy's combination of an extremely high level of performance, and longevity.
Top Thirty Playoffs – minimum 1,000 minutes
* updated for 2017
I realize that 93.0% is an arbitrary threshold, but it's a pretty good summary of the best playoff performances of the past thirty years.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Goalie Cup? Smythe? Year Team Minutes Shots Saves Sv% Martin Brodeur Yes 1995 NJD 1,222 475 448 94.4% Patrick Roy* Yes Yes 1993 MTL 1,293 611 577 94.3% Pelle Lindbergh 1985 PHI 1,008 468 441 94.3% Ed Belfour* 1995 CHI 1,014 491 462 93.9% Patrick Roy* Yes Yes 1986 MTL 1,218 489 458 93.7% Jean-Sebastien Giguere Yes 2003 MDA 1,407 760 711 93.6% Patrick Roy* 1989 MTL 1,206 521 488 93.6% Reggie Lemelin 1988 BOS 1,027 442 414 93.5% Olaf Kolzig 1998 WSH 1,351 770 720 93.5% John Vanbiesbrouck 1996 FLA 1,332 720 672 93.4% Tim Thomas Yes Yes 2011 BOS 1,542 789 736 93.3% Jonathan Quick Yes Yes 2012 LAK 1,238 546 509 93.2% Dominik Hasek 1999 BUF 1,217 616 574 93.2% Tom Barrasso Yes 1991 PIT 1,175 600 559 93.2% Bill Ranford Yes Yes 1990 EDM 1,401 676 629 93.2% Patrick Roy* Yes Yes 2001 COL 1,451 693 645 93.0% Mike Smith 2012 PHX 1,027 611 568 93.0% Dwayne Roloson 2006 EDM 1,160 625 581 92.9% Sean Burke 1988 NJD 1,001 530 492 92.9% Kirk McLean 1994 VAN 1,544 813 755 92.8% Martin Brodeur 1994 NJD 1,171 526 488 92.7% Andy Moog 1990 BOS 1,195 489 453 92.7% Arturs Irbe 2002 CAR 1,078 511 474 92.7% Marc-Andre Fleury 2008 PIT 1,251 603 559 92.6% Tuukka Rask 2013 BOS 1,466 724 669 92.4% Alain Chevrier 1989 CHI 1,013 478 441 92.3% Ed Belfour* Yes 1999 DAL 1,544 648 597 92.3% Martin Brodeur Yes 2003 NJD 1,491 678 626 92.2% Chris Osgood Yes 2008 DET 1,160 425 392 92.2% Henrik Lundqvist 2014 NYR 1,516 731 674 92.2%
As I said in the previous post, there is little doubt that Roy is the greatest playoff goalie of the past three decades. He has three of the top seven performances, and five of the top thirty-three. He performed at an exceptionally high level on five different occasions where his team made the Stanley Cup finals, and he was a major reason why they were victorious four times.
Support Neutral Wins & Losses
* update for 2017
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Goalie Decision Wins Losses Win% Patrick Roy* 245 143 102 58.2% Martin Brodeur 204 109 95 53.5% Ed Belfour* 156 89 67 57.0% Grant Fuhr* 137 72 65 52.3% Curtis Joseph 129 69 60 53.6% Henrik Lundqvist 126 68 58 53.7% Mike Vernon 133 65 68 49.1% Dominik Hasek 114 65 49 57.2% Chris Osgood 123 63 60 51.4% Tom Barrasso 115 59 56 51.7% Marc-Andre Fleury 113 53 60 47.1% Andy Moog 100 47 53 47.3% Ron Hextall 90 46 44 50.8% Jonathan Quick 81 44 37 54.7% Corey Crawford 85 43 42 50.8% Kelly Hrudey 82 41 41 49.8% Mike Richter 74 40 34 53.4% Evgeni Nabokov 84 39 45 46.5% Felix Potvin 72 38 34 53.0% Kirk McLean 68 37 31 54.8% Nikolai Khabibulin 70 36 34 51.2% Roberto Luongo 69 36 33 51.7% Pekka Rinne 70 35 35 50.2% Braden Holtby 59 34 25 58.3% Tim Thomas 50 31 19 62.4% Tuukka Rask 53 31 22 58.6% Ken Wregget 53 31 22 58.6% Jon Casey 63 30 33 47.6% Antti Niemi 65 29 36 45.2% Ryan Miller 55 28 27 51.4% Jean-Sebastien Giguere 50 28 22 56.5% Miikka Kiprusoff 53 28 25 52.6% Carey Price 56 28 28 49.7% Bill Ranford 53 27 26 51.6% Olaf Kolzig 44 26 18 59.1% Don Beaupre 53 26 27 48.8% Craig Anderson 45 25 20 56.6% Dwayne Roloson 46 25 21 53.9% Jose Theodore 51 24 27 47.9% Arturs Irbe 50 24 26 48.1% Jimmy Howard 47 24 23 50.8% Marty Turco 47 24 23 50.8% Patrick Lalime 41 23 18 55.5% Cam Ward 41 22 19 54.8% Greg Millen 46 22 24 48.8% Ilya Bryzgalov 45 21 24 46.5% Mike Liut 35 19 16 53.5% Reggie Lemelin 36 19 17 51.6% Ben Bishop 34 18 16 54.4% Jonas Hiller 30 17 13 57.2% Pete Peeters 34 17 17 50.2% Brian Elliott 37 17 20 45.6% Sean Burke 35 17 18 47.6% Martin Jones 30 16 14 55.0% Ray Emery 38 16 22 42.8% Frederik Andersen 32 16 16 48.9% Mario Gosselin 31 15 16 47.3%
This is a concept developed by Taco McArthur – link. Essentially, it shows how many games a goalie would be expected to win, had they played on an average team. I’m not sure if I like this or Wins Added more (the latter is a statistic I created), but TM’s statistic is far easier to calculate and gives fairly similar results, so let’s go with his! The chart above shows the results for all goalies with 30+ decisions.
Roy’s dominance continues. He has the most Support Neutral Wins by a massive margin. He also has the best win percentage out of any goalie with 60+ decisions. Once again, there is little doubt that Roy is greatest playoff goalie of the past three decades.
I've put together a chart comparing the playoff save percentage of every Stanley Cup Finalist of the official save percentage era (1984-2014) to the average regular season shooting percentage of their four respective playoff opponents.
Example: In 2002, Dominik Hasek and the Detroit Red Wings played the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche, and Carolina Hurricanes. Their respective shooting percentages were 10.9%, 9.5%, 9.4%, and 9.2%, for an average of 9.75%, meaning that the expected save percentage was .9025 or .903. Dominik Hasek had a .920, so he exceeded expectations by .017.
Looking strictly at a raw difference undoubtedly has its flaws, as it's not adjusted to the exact amount of games played against each team. And the higher the expectation, the harder it is to exceed those expectations by the same raw amount. And conversely, if one were to play against the Edmonton Oilers or Pittsburgh Penguins in their heyday (Lindbergh, Smith, Vanbiesbrouck, Vernon, etc.), very little was expected at all.
More than that, some of the goalies on the list didn't play 100% of their teams' games - for instance, Grant Fuhr was absent for much of the 1984 Finals against a team shooting at 14.7%.
Top Performances - Stanley Cup Winners
1. Patrick Roy, 1993 (+.057)
2. Patrick Roy, 1986 (+.049)
3. Grant Fuhr, 1984 (+.044)
4. Martin Brodeur, 1995 (+.039)
4. Patrick Roy, 2001 (+.039)
6. Patrick Roy, 1996 (+.037)
7. Bill Ranford, 1990 (+.036)
8. Jonathan Quick, 2012 (+.035)
9. Tim Thomas, 2011 (+.033)
10. Martin Brodeur, 2000 (+.032)
Top Performances - Stanley Cup Losers
1. Pelle Lindbergh, 1985 (+.053)
2. John Vanbiesbrouck, 1996 (+.049)
3. Patrick Roy, 1989 (+.043)
3. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, 2003 (+.043)
3. Tuukka Rask, 2013 (+.043)
6. Dominik Hasek, 1999 (+.041)
7. Billy Smith, 1984 (+.040)
8. Ron Hextall, 1987 (+.038)
8. Kirk McLean, 1994 (+.038)
10. Olaf Kolzig, 1998 (+.035)
10. Arturs Irbe, 2002 (+.035)
Save percentage is, in my opinion, the best statistic to evaluate a goalie with. Every goaltending statistic (save percentage, wins, GAA, shutouts, etc) is influenced by the goalie’s team, however save percentage is less team-dependent than the others. I think this is intuitively obvious to anyone who studies goaltending, but I’ll explain if anybody’s curious.
The problem with save percentage is that it’s highly era-dependent. The purpose of this study is to adjust save percentage so that it’s comparable across seasons. I have data for 1983-2009.
Career Adjusted Save Percentage REGULAR SEASON(min 400 games)
Patrick Roy is incredibly underrated from a save percentage perspective. His peak occurred in the high-scoring late eighties and early nineties. He towered over his peers with almost Hasek-like dominance, but his raw numbers aren’t impressive because his played during an era that was very unfriendly to goalies. I often see people argue that Brodeur is better than Roy due to a higher save percentage. That would like comparing stats from an eighties player to a modern player, and concluding that the former was better. Adjusted for era, Roy was a significantly better regular season goalie than every goalie aside from Hasek in the past three decades.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Name Adj GP Adj SA Adj Sv Sv% Dominik Hasek 741 21368 19768 92.5% Patrick Roy 1040 29471 27114 92.0% Roberto Luongo 517 16744 15360 91.7% Martin Brodeur 1009 26215 23943 91.3% Tomas Vokoun 486 14928 13628 91.3% John Vanbiesbrouck 872 25316 23110 91.3% Guy Hebert 488 15379 14029 91.2% Jean-Sebastien Giguere 436 12837 11707 91.2% Ed Belfour 957 25678 23406 91.2% Andy Moog 686 19252 17548 91.1% Kelly Hrudey 664 20724 18888 91.1% Daren Puppa 423 12179 11096 91.1% Curtis Joseph 923 27638 25168 91.1% Ron Hextall 605 16727 15211 90.9% Mike Richter 660 20122 18294 90.9% Martin Biron 407 12147 11043 90.9% Tom Barrasso 746 22001 19999 90.9% Evgeni Nabokov 471 12872 11697 90.9% Sean Burke 804 24389 22162 90.9% Marty Turco 433 11044 10035 90.9% Felix Potvin 636 18855 17121 90.8% Jon Casey 401 11172 10143 90.8% Dwayne Roloson 435 12861 11674 90.8% Bob Essensa 404 11976 10869 90.8% Mike Liut 466 12993 11789 90.7% Nikolai Khabibulin 661 19627 17807 90.7% Jeff Hackett 473 14210 12891 90.7% Jose Theodore 474 14133 12810 90.6% Chris Osgood 690 18559 16809 90.6% Olaf Kolzig 703 20961 18980 90.5% Don Beaupre 585 16927 15318 90.5% Jocelyn Thibault 558 16424 14856 90.5% Tommy Salo 511 14333 12949 90.3% Patrick Lalime 400 11085 10012 90.3% Grant Fuhr 787 22904 20680 90.3% Ron Tugnutt 498 14570 13154 90.3% Mike Vernon 768 20514 18518 90.3% Arturs Irbe 556 16034 14473 90.3% Glenn Healy 418 12188 10996 90.2% Ken Wregget 559 17368 15653 90.1% Greg Millen 416 12054 10859 90.1% Bill Ranford 628 18796 16925 90.0% Kirk McLean 616 17573 15817 90.0%
Special Teams:
-Given the Leafs lack of scoring punch pretty much across the board at F, the Bankers pretty handily own the PP, head to head. And I absolutely think we're slightly better on the kill as well considering Laperriere and White from a pure kill standpoint are 2 of the best all time (see graphs below). 76% usage is absurd for Laperriere but it goes to show you how valuable he was to Toe Blake and Claude Ruel. Even Bill White was used more than Orr and Horton on the PK.
I think Kennedy-Westfall is superior to Keon-Larmer due to the much bigger gap between Westfall (one of the 5 best PK forwards of all time) and Larmer. Kennedy was heavily used on the PK and while I give the edge to Keon, Kennedy's elite faceoff ability is sure to help in this area specifically.
And give me Gretzky/Bourne-Martinec over Propp-Fedorov. Gretzky when he plays was so far and away the most dangerous scorer down a man ever and his presence alone forces the PP to be extremely careful and in my mind, probably too passive because of it. Martinec is, after getting a slew of information from our HoH brother Batis, a legit 1st line killer here and as a 2nd unit guy is probably one of the better players.
I can send you links to some of Martinecs more impressive penalty killing shifts either later tonight or more likely tomorrow. As I said so far I have not done any estimated ice times but I have collected all boxplay shifts up until the 1977 WHC so I have plenty of footage of Martinecs penalty killing and still more to collect.
As a teaser I'll send you two great even strengh plays from Martinec against the Soviets in Czechoslovakias 3-2 win at the 1972 WHC.
Martinec steals the puck and assist on a goal by Nedomansky.
Martinec and Farda combines for a great goal. Just look at Martinecs puck possession before he makes the assist.
You are very welcome. Here is another strong shift from Martinec by the way where he steals the puck and almost scores a shorthanded goal against the Soviets at the 1978 WHC.
Penalty Kill - Defencemen
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player GP SH% TmSH+ $SHP/82 Jacques Laperriere 691 76% 0.90 2 J.C. Tremblay 796 66% 0.94 1 Marcel Pronovost 636 66% 0.96 1 Bill White 604 65% 0.88 1 Bobby Orr 657 62% 0.78 6 Francois Beauchemin 836 60% 1.08 1 Jay Bouwmeester 1071 59% 0.95 1 Serge Savard 1040 58% 0.82 2 Ray Bourque 1612 58% 0.88 2 Bill Hajt 854 57% 0.77 1 Chris Chelios 1651 57% 0.85 2 Barry Beck 615 57% 1.01 1 Tim Horton 1010 57% 0.92 2 Jim Schoenfeld 719 56% 0.77 1 Scott Stevens 1635 56% 0.88 1 Zdeno Chara 1350 56% 0.90 2 Willie Mitchell 907 56% 0.90 1 Derian Hatcher 1045 56% 0.89 1 Alex Pietrangelo 539 55% 0.84 1 Borje Salming 1148 55% 1.09 1 Rob Scuderi 783 55% 0.91 1 Chris Pronger 1167 55% 0.91 1 Bob Stewart 575 54% 1.19 1 Bob Plager 644 54% 1.00 1 Denis Potvin 1060 53% 0.82 2 Harry Howell 932 53% 1.05 1 Rod Langway 994 53% 0.83 1 Adam Foote 1154 53% 0.99 1 Dave Burrows 724 53% 1.05 1 Dan Hamhuis 951 53% 0.93 1 Carol Vadnais 1087 53% 0.98 1 Moose Vasko 600 53% 1.00 1 Niklas Hjalmarsson 623 53% 0.97 2 Guy Lapointe 884 53% 0.76 1 Tom Laidlaw 705 52% 0.98 1 Duncan Keith 913 52% 0.95 2 Richard Matvichuk 796 52% 0.86 1 Dan Girardi 788 52% 0.84 2 Nicklas Lidstrom 1564 52% 0.81 2
3. Defensemen - penalty kill usage - top 50 playoffs
A good mix of elite all-around blueliners, and defensive specialists.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player GP PK% Alex Pietrangelo 57 67.7% Scott Stevens 233 65.4% Reg Fleming 50 63.6% Roman Josi 52 63.0% Serge Savard 130 62.0% Jim Schoenfeld 75 61.8% Jacques Laperriere 88 61.8% Adam Foote 170 61.1% Francois Beauchemin 97 61.0% Bob Plager 74 60.7% Bill White 91 60.0% Barry Beck 51 59.2% Ian Turnbull 55 58.5% Bobby Orr 74 58.3% Hal Gill 111 58.0% Ray Bourque 214 57.9% J.C. Tremblay 108 57.7% Brian Leetch 95 57.4% Borje Salming 81 57.0% Guy Lapointe 123 57.0% Bill Hajt 80 56.5% Zdeno Chara 147 56.0% Craig Ludwig 177 55.0% Jimmy Roberts 153 55.0% Marcel Pronovost 63 53.7% Brad Marsh 97 53.6% Tim Horton 106 53.3% Tom Poti 51 53.2% Pat Stapleton 65 53.1% Dallas Smith 86 52.9% Brent Seabrook 123 52.1% Chris Chelios 266 51.8% Nicklas Lidstrom 263 51.6% Phil Russell 73 51.6% Denis Potvin 185 51.1% Chris Pronger 173 51.0% John Carlson 76 50.0% Derian Hatcher 133 50.0% Mark Howe 101 49.5% Marc-Edouard Vlasic 114 49.4% Duncan Keith 126 49.3% Marc Staal 104 49.3% Willie Mitchell 89 49.2% Ed Van Impe 66 49.1% Chris Phillips 114 48.7% Ken Morrow 127 48.6% Brad Park 161 48.6% Rob Scuderi 122 48.6% Vladimir Malakhov 75 48.3% Allan Stanley 73 48.1%