Jim Coleman Conference Semi Finals (1) New Jersey Swamp Devils vs (1) Kenora Thistles

TheDevilMadeMe

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Aug 28, 2006
52,271
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Brooklyn
New Jersey Swamp Devils

Coach: Pete Green
Assistant Coach: Ken Hitchcock

Dickie Moore - Joe Sakic (A) - Gordie Drillon
Johnny Gottselig - Alexander Maltsev - Jarome Iginla
Bob Pulford - Phil Goyette - Claude Provost
Boris Mayorov - Joe Nieuwendyk - Eddie Oatman

Slava Fetisov (C) - Drew Doughty
Hap Day - Sylvio Mantha (A)
Rod Seiling - Kris Letang

Georges Vezina
Dave Kerr

Spares: Gilles Tremblay (LW), Jeff Carter (C/RW), Doug Barkley (D)

PP 1: Dickie Moore - Alexander Maltsev - Gordie Drillon - Joe Sakic - Slava Fetisov
PP2: Johnny Gottselig - Joe Nieuwendyk - Jarome Iginla - Phil Goyette/Drew Doughty - Kris Letang

PK1: Bob Pulford - Claude Provost - Hap Day - Sylvio Mantha
PK2: Alexander Maltsev - Johnny Gottselig - Slava Fetisov - Drew Doughty
PK3: Joe Sakic - Boris Mayorov
Extra D: Rod Seiling
Estimated Ice Time Forwards
Note: *Sakic and Goyette play the point on the 1st and 2nd PP respectively.
Drillon sees limited ES ice time in defensive situations, in favor of Iginla and Provost.

NameESPPPKTotal
Dickie Moore144018
Joe Sakic145*120*
Gordie Drillon114015
Johnny Gottselig133218
Alexander Maltsev134219
Jarome Iginla153018
Bob Pulford130417
Phil Goyette132*015*
Claude Provost140418
Boris Mayorov6017
Joe Nieuwendyk6309
Eddie Oatman6006
Total13828*14180*
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Estimated Ice Time Defensemen
NameESPPPKTotal
Slava Fetisov185326
Drew Doughty180321
Hap Day160420
Sylvio Mantha160420
Rod Seiling120012
Kris Letang122014
Total927*14113*
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Jun 29, 2009
8,244
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Chicago, IL
41EH08NF31L._SL160_.jpg


Kenora THISTLES
1907 Stanley Cup Champions

Home Rink: Thistle Rink (1920), Kenora, Ontario
GM: papershoes & Hawkey Town 18
Coach: Cecil Hart
Captain: Steve Yzerman
Alternates: Toe Blake, Butch Bouchard, Daniel Alfredsson



#6 Hector "Toe" Blake (A) - #19 Steve Yzerman (C) - #5 Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion
#14 Woody Dumart
- #71 Evgeni Malkin - #11 Daniel Alfredsson (A)
#9 Clark Gillies - #8 Igor Larionov - #10 Tony Amonte
Dave Andreychuk - #10 Edgar Laprade - #6 Floyd Curry

extras: Neal Broten, Tommy Smith, #44 Stephane Richer

#4 Leonard "Red" Kelly - #3 Emile "Butch" Bouchard (A)
#3 Vladimir Lutchenko - #2 Jimmy Thomson
#20 Jimmy Watson - #76 PK Subban

extras: #7 Gennady Tsygankov

#1 Walter "Turk" Broda
#1 Roberto Luongo

Powerplay:
PP1: Dave Andreychuk - Steve Yzerman - Evgeni Malkin - Red Kelly - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Toe Blake - Igor Larionov - Daniel Alfredsson - PK Subban - Vladimir Lutchenko

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Edgar Laprade - Floyd Curry - Vladimir Lutchenko/Red Kelly - Butch Bouchard
PK2: Toe Blake - Steve Yzerman - Red Kelly/Jimmy Watson - Jimmy Thomson
PK3: Igor Larionov - Daniel Alfredsson​


Regular Season Minutes Chart
Forwards
PlayerESPPPKTotal
T. Blake142218
S. Yzerman144220
B. Geoffrion14418
W. Dumart16.516.5
E. Malkin13518
D. Alfredsson133117
C. Gillies1212
I. Larionov122115
T. Amonte1212
D. Andreychuk3.558.5
E. Laprade7411
F. Curry7411
TOTAL1382514177
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Defense
PlayerESPPPKTotal
R. Kelly195226
B. Bouchard17421
V. Lutchenko142319
J. Thomson17320
J. Watson13215
P.K. Subban12315
TOTAL921014116
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
18,775
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Oblivion Express
Very excited to see this series play out. 4 very experienced GM's with proven track records and 2 seemingly strong teams. Hope your schedules allow for legit discussions.
 

BenchBrawl

Registered User
Jul 26, 2010
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Tough one.Hoping for a great series, hopefully the GMs' schedule permit it.
 

Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
18,552
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Orillia, Ontario
At first glance - Sakic vs. Yzerma ... Fetisov vs. Kelly ...

If you combine the 7 season vs.x scores, the top-6 are extremely close.
1st lines: 296.4 and 296.8 (edge us)
2nd lines: 251.5 and 251.8 (edge them)

The total difference in the sets of top lines is 0.1. (edge us... LOL)

This should be fun.
 

Hawkey Town 18

Registered User
Jun 29, 2009
8,244
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Chicago, IL
Wow, 0.1 apart, that has to be some kind of a record!

Considering the above, and that I have 2 players who are overly punished for games missed by vs.X I'd like to take a look at 7yr per game vs.X as well
(not sure how we should evaluate Maltsev on this one, any ideas? For now I'll use 0.90, even with Selanne and Mahovlich, ahead of St. Louis, Oates, and Savard, behind M. Bentley, Kane, F. Boucher)

Also it should be noted that per game vs.X likely doesn't punish players enough for games missed. IMO regular 7yr vs.X carries more weight than per game vs.X, but it's still a valuable tool, especially when things are this close.

How it works...
  • Only seasons where the player played at least half the schedule apply (otherwise we pretend they didn't happen - so Crosby's 2011 and 2013 seasons count, but 2012 doesn't).
  • Seasons are weighted based on adjusted games played (so a player who missed a lot of time during his best seasons, like Crosby, gets penalized for it, since 2011 and 2013 are given less weight than, say, 2007, 2014 and 2015).
  • The years don't need to be consecutive.

1st Lines
Geoffrion: 1.01
Yzerman: 0.94
Sakic: 0.94
Drillon: 0.90

Blake: 0.86
Moore: 0.84

Kenora: 2.81
New Jersey: 2.68

2nd Lines
Malkin: 1.00
Maltsev: 0.90
Alfredsson: 0.85
Iginla: 0.84
Gottselig: 0.74

Dumart: 0.71

Kenora: 2.56
New Jersey: 2.48


 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
Wow, 0.1 apart, that has to be some kind of a record!

Yeah, I had to re-check it just to make sure.

Considering the above, and that I have 2 players who are overly punished for games missed by vs.X I'd like to take a look at 7yr per game vs.X as well
(not sure how we should evaluate Maltsev on this one, any ideas? For now I'll use 0.90, even with Selanne and Mahovlich, ahead of St. Louis, Oates, and Savard, behind M. Bentley, Kane, F. Boucher)

Yeah, 90.0 is the score I use for him as well. Pat Kane was my comparable.

He, however, almost never played a full season. How we handle that for a Russian player, I have no idea!

Also it should be noted that per game vs.X likely doesn't punish players enough for games missed. IMO regular 7yr vs.X carries more weight than per game vs.X, but it's still a valuable tool, especially when things are this close.

How it works...
  • Only seasons where the player played at least half the schedule apply (otherwise we pretend they didn't happen - so Crosby's 2011 and 2013 seasons count, but 2012 doesn't).
  • Seasons are weighted based on adjusted games played (so a player who missed a lot of time during his best seasons, like Crosby, gets penalized for it, since 2011 and 2013 are given less weight than, say, 2007, 2014 and 2015).
  • The years don't need to be consecutive.
For me, points per game is a tie-breaker for similar players.

Yes, scoring at a higher rate per game is a good thing, but so is playing more games. Let's use Dickie Moore as an example, he seems to get double punished in a per-game measurement. He was inured a lot. He played through numerous injuries that would have sidelined most players. *the following is an educated assumption* While he was playing injured, his scoring rates were lower than normal. A player who didn't play hurt would get the benefit of a per game boost. Not only does Moore not get that per game boost, he also gets a loss because his scoring rates were down during the time another player would have sat.

1st Lines
Geoffrion: 1.01
Yzerman: 0.94
Sakic: 0.94
Drillon: 0.90

Blake: 0.86
Moore: 0.84

Kenora: 2.81
New Jersey: 2.68


Looks about like I expected, except Moore. I just kind of assumed that Moore missed more games during his prime. I guess he just played through everything.

2nd Lines
Malkin: 1.00
Maltsev: 0.90
Alfredsson: 0.85
Iginla: 0.84
Gottselig: 0.74

Dumart: 0.71

Kenora: 2.56
New Jersey: 2.48


Again about what I expected. Though, Maltsev missed quite a few gamed. Let me go through and try to figure him out.[/quote]
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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PPGVsX shouldn't be weighted at all, and I had a conversation with HO about this some time ago.Not sure if the new numbers are weighted, even if he said they were in his post.Maybe he updated them, maybe not.

Anyway, not very important in a single series like this, but just a general point.Weighting the PPGVsX numbers is only distorting what we are trying to see with the method: how players produced on a per-game level.VsX already covers the ''punishing players for missed games'' aspect, so PPGVsX shouldn't do that, since the main purpose of the method is to compare it with the VsX numbers side by side to reveal a more complete picture.
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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This series might be an opportunity for a Moore vs. Geoffrion discussion, would be interesting.

Sakic vs. Yzerman is a nice touch too.
 
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Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
Alright, here's the breakdown of Alexander Maltsev for the PPG vs. X.

1969 and 1974 were his only healthy seasons.

1970 - missed 2 of 44 games
1971 - missed 3 of 40 games
1972 - missed 6 of 32 games
1973 - missed 5 of 32 games
1975 - missed 4 of 36 games
1976 - missed 7 of 36 games
1977 - missed 3 of 36 games
1978 - missed 12 of 36 games
1979 - missed 36 of 44 games
1980 - missed 8 of 44 games
1981 - missed 10 of 48 games
1982 - missed 9 of 46 games
1983 - missed 12 of 44 games
1984 - missed 12 of 44 games

Based on Soviet league percentages, his best 7 seasons were 1970, 71, 72, 73, 74, 76, and 77.
If you go by per game average, his 1981 season replaces 1970.

If you just apply the per game difference to his best 7 seasons, his score goes up by 1.12. That turns his 90.0 into a 100.8.

If you take his best per game seasons, his score goes up by 1.13. That turns his 90.0 into a 101.7.
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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It seems that Top 6 offense is splitting hair between those two teams at first glance.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
Sakic vs. Yzerman is a nice touch too.

Here's a nice touch.....

Sakic has a 7 season vs. x score of 97.7. Yzerman has a 7 season vs. x score of 93.2.

Both guys were highly tilted towards power play scoring, but Sakic more.

Sakic scored 58.6% of his points at even strength. Yzerman scored 61.5% of his points at even strength.

Sakic..... 97.7 x 0.586 = 57.3
Yzerman..... 93.2 x 0.615 = 57.3
 
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Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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This series might be an opportunity for a Moore vs. Geoffrion discussion, would be interesting.

Geoffrion is pretty clearly the better offensive player. It depends how much people value Moore's all-around game. I mean, he was an overall monster, and he's very valuable, and I would draft him before Geoffrion every day of the week... but, I'm not sure if he's actually a better player in a vacuum.

Both guys were total money in the play-offs too. Compared to regular season, it looks like Moore actually raised his game while Geoffrion seemed to stay the same, but just managed to avoid missing games like he did in regular season.
 

VMBM

And it didn't even bring me down
Sep 24, 2008
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Is Maltsev usually favoured as a center rather than a winger (RW) in the ATD?

I’m asking this because except for the late ‘60s/early ‘70s, the Soviet national team coaches heavily preferred Maltsev as a RW, so much so that at the 1980 Olympics, for example, a forward who was probably more known as a winger, Yuri Lebedev, centered the line with Krutov and Maltsev. (I remember a some sort of discussion about this… was it a year ago?)

In his book, Kharlamov writes that when Maltsev superseded Firsov at C on the line with Kharlamov and Vikulov on the national team during the 1971-72 season, the line suffered defensively (although possibly gained offensively?).

Not saying that Maltsev would be a liability at C or the only heavily offensive-minded C here, but maybe more of a natural winger?
 
Last edited:

Sprague Cleghorn

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Aug 14, 2013
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Is Maltsev usually favoured as a center rather than a winger (RW) in the ATD?

I’m asking this because except for the late ‘60s/early ‘70s, the Soviet national team coaches heavily preferred Maltsev as a RW, so much so that at the 1980 Olympics, for example, a forward who was probably more known as a winger, Yuri Lebedev, centered the line with Krutov and Maltsev. (I remember a some sort of discussion about this… was it a year ago?)

In his book, Kharlamov writes that when Maltsev superseded Firsov at C on the line with Kharlamov and Vikulov on the national team during the 1971-72 season, the line suffered defensively (although possibly gained offensively?).

Not saying that Maltsev would be a liability at C or the only heavily offensive-minded C here, but maybe more of a natural winger?

Maltsev was a C pretty much full time with Dynamo Moscow.
 

Theokritos

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Apr 6, 2010
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In his book, Kharlamov writes that when Maltsev superseded Firsov at C on the line with Kharlamov and Vikulov on the national team during the 1971-72 season, the line suffered defensively (although possibly gained offensively?).

Not saying that Maltsev would be a liability at C or the only heavily offensive-minded C here, but maybe more of a natural winger?

You get the same impression from other Russian sources.

1969-1970:

Vyacheslav Starshinov [on Maltsev's performance at the 1970 WCH]: " think that Maltsev's successful performance was in part made possible by moving him from center to the wing, in other words: freeing him from the work load of defensive duty. At the center position he easily got tired in the past so that he was not always ready to follow through with an attack. In the role of a winger all of his energy went into the attack."

1970-1971:

In Aleksandr Gorbunov's book "Anatoly Tarasov" it is said that Chernyshov and Tarasov were concerned about the "weak defensive play" of the Maltsev line (with Firsov and Vikulov as wingers and Ragulin as one of the defencemen) at the 1971 World Championship. Ragulin is singled out as not playing up to his usual level. Tarasov suggested that Maltsev should be made to play a more defensive role to make the unit more balanced, but Chernyshov argued that Maltsev's strength lied in attacking, not in defending. The coaches settled on taking a calculated risk of letting the line continue to play a rather one-dimensional offensive game: "the Maltsev line may concede goals against, but there is a chance they will score more than the other lines." And indeed, Firsov - Maltsev - Vikulov ended up with 27 goals scored between the three of them. For comparison: the troika of Kharlamov - Petrov - Mikhailov scored 20 goals.
 
Last edited:

Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
18,552
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Orillia, Ontario
Is Maltsev usually favoured as a center rather than a winger (RW) in the ATD?

I’m asking this because except for the late ‘60s/early ‘70s, the Soviet national team coaches heavily preferred Maltsev as a RW, so much so that at the 1980 Olympics, for example, a forward who was probably more known as a winger, Yuri Lebedev, centered the line with Krutov and Maltsev. (I remember a some sort of discussion about this… was it a year ago?)

In his book, Kharlamov writes that when Maltsev superseded Firsov at C on the line with Kharlamov and Vikulov on the national team during the 1971-72 season, the line suffered defensively (although possibly gained offensively?).

Not saying that Maltsev would be a liability at C or the only heavily offensive-minded C here, but maybe more of a natural winger?

Yeah, he usually plays wing in the ATD, but it’s usually because there are many more good centers than wingers.

Actually, that was our plan for a long time. We had a first line of Moore-Sakic-Maltsev pencilled in for the longest time. It wasn’t until Drillon dropped, and the top center we looked at was Stamkos that we decided to keep him at center.
 

Hawkey Town 18

Registered User
Jun 29, 2009
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Chicago, IL
Moving on to defensive ability on the top 2 lines...

1st Lines (gaps intentional)
Yzerman/Sakic/Moore*

Blake**


Geoffrion

Drillon

*Yzerman's best defensively was better than Sakic's best, but Sakic was better able to combine is best offense and best defense, so I think it's fair to call them about even.
**Not including Blake's great PK ability


2nd lines (gaps intentional)
Dumart

Alfredsson

Gottselig*
Iginla


Malkin/Maltsev

*Not including Gottselig's great PK ability


I have to run, will come back discuss this further when I'm free
 

Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
18,552
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Orillia, Ontario
Moving on to defensive ability on the top 2 lines...

1st Lines (gaps intentional)
Yzerman/Sakic/Moore*

Blake**


Geoffrion

Drillon

*Yzerman's best defensively was better than Sakic's best, but Sakic was better able to combine is best offense and best defense, so I think it's fair to call them about even.
**Not including Blake's great PK ability


2nd lines (gaps intentional)
Dumart

Alfredsson

Gottselig*
Iginla


Malkin/Maltsev

*Not including Gottselig's great PK ability


I have to run, will come back discuss this further when I'm free

Other than Toe Blake's penalty killing ability, this is pretty fair.

Not sure I'd have a gap between Alfredsson and Gottseilig, but that's probably splitting hairs.
 

Hawkey Town 18

Registered User
Jun 29, 2009
8,244
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Chicago, IL
Not sure if this is what you were getting at, but I'm fine admitting Blake is not as good a penalty killer as Gottselig. I think Blake is fine on an ATD 2nd PK unit. See the below which coincidentally is from TDMM's bio...

"Blake is a coach who lives to get out on the ice and show his players just what he means. He took the odd turn with the team, sometimes at defence...Now old Toe has to get out there and do his stuff, aching dogs and all, but still a canny player and a wizard at killing off penalties."
 

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