Jim Coleman Conference Quarterfinals: (1) Kenora Thistles vs (2) Vancouver Millionaires

[jarek]

@papershoes @Habsfan18

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[Hawkey Town 18]

Kenora THISTLES
1907 Stanley Cup Champions

Home Rink: Thistle Rink (1920), Kenora, Ontario
GM: papershoes & Hawkey Town 18
Coach: Cecil Hart
Captain: Steve Yzerman
Alternates: Toe Blake, Butch Bouchard, Daniel Alfredsson



#14 Woody Dumart - #19 Steve Yzerman (C) - #5 Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion
#6 Hector "Toe" Blake (A) - #71 Evgeni Malkin - #11 Daniel Alfredsson (A)
#9 Clark Gillies - #8 Igor Larionov - #10 Tony Amonte
Dave Andreychuk - #10 Edgar Laprade - #6 Floyd Curry

extras: Neal Broten, Tommy Smith, #44 Stephane Richer

#4 Leonard "Red" Kelly - #3 Emile "Butch" Bouchard (A)
#3 Vladimir Lutchenko - #2 Jimmy Thomson
#20 Jimmy Watson - #76 PK Subban

extras: #7 Gennady Tsygankov

#1 Walter "Turk" Broda
#1 Roberto Luongo

Powerplay:
PP1: Dave Andreychuk - Steve Yzerman - Evgeni Malkin - Red Kelly - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Toe Blake - Igor Larionov - Daniel Alfredsson - PK Subban - Vladimir Lutchenko

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Edgar Laprade - Floyd Curry - Vladimir Lutchenko/Red Kelly - Butch Bouchard
PK2: Toe Blake - Steve Yzerman - Red Kelly/Jimmy Watson - Jimmy Thomson
PK3: Igor Larionov - Daniel Alfredsson​

Forwards
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
T. Blake	14	2	2	18
S. Yzerman	14	4	2	20
B. Geoffrion	14	4		18
W. Dumart	16.5			16.5
E. Malkin	13	5		18
D. Alfredsson	13	3	1	17
C. Gillies	12			12
I. Larionov	12	2	1	15
T. Amonte	12			12
D. Andreychuk	3.5	5		8.5
E. Laprade	7		4	11
F. Curry	7		4	11
TOTAL	138	25	14	177

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defense
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
R. Kelly	19	5	2	26
B. Bouchard	17		4	21
V. Lutchenko	14	2	3	19
J. Thomson	17		3	20
J. Watson	13		2	15
P.K. Subban	12	3		15
TOTAL	92	10	14	116

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Habsfan18]

General Manager: Habsfan18

Vancouver Millionaires

Head Coach: Hap Day

Captain: Milt Schmidt
Assistant Captain: Maurice Richard
Assistant Captain: Fern Flaman

Roster:

Anatoli Firsov - Milt Schmidt - Maurice Richard
Alexander Yakushev - Eric Lindros - Rick Middleton
Esa Tikkanen - Guy Carbonneau - Danny Gare
Mats Naslund - Pit Lepine - Reggie Leach
Extras: Bernie Nicholls, Brian Bellows

Marcel Pronovost - Al MacInnis
Barry Beck - Fern Flaman
Sandis Ozolinsh - Jean-Guy Talbot
Extras: Wade Redden, Craig Ludwig

Bill Durnan
Eddie Giacomin

PP1: Firsov-Lindros-Richard
MacInnis-Pronovost
PP2: Yakushev-Schmidt-Middleton
Ozolinsh-Beck

PK1: Carbonneau-Tikkanen
Beck-Flaman
PK2: Lepine-Firsov
Pronovost-Talbot​

 

[ResilientBeast]

Two crazy talented top lines going head to head

 

[Habsfan18]

I think this is going to be a fantastic series! Two impressive teams. I do like how my offense stacks up against Kenora.

Good luck!

 

[jarek]

I don't see much of an answer for Vancouver's top line from Kenora. It's a good thing they have Kelly.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't see much of an answer for Vancouver's top line from Kenora. It's a good thing they have Kelly.

I'd go power on power honestly. I really like Kenora's top 2 lines but they don't exactly have any line that you could peg as a "shutdown" unit. Toe Blake was a good defensive winger and Yzerman was Selke good the 2nd half of his career. They're honestly the best option to operate both ways equally well in the series and may have to regardless.

Red Kelly needs to have a monster series. I do really like that top pairing though.

Durnan and Broda are about equals all time but I give the edge to Broda since he's an all time great postseason goalie and we're in the best of 7 section. Close though.

 

[Habsfan18]

I may be biased, but looking at lines 1 through 4 I feel I have the edge each time. I also feel my PP is one of the deadlier ones in the ATD. MacInnis and Richard on the same PP is absolutely lethal.

I can also have guys like Carbonneau, Lepine and Tikkanen shadow star players if need be.

Really, the only win I give Kenora is their top D pairing. I like my team in this series.

Also, Schmidt and Lindros are 2 of the most physical Centers in the ATD. As a 1-2 punch, they will be extremely hard to play against in a playoff series.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Didnt Dumart have some success matching up against the Rocket in real life?

 

[ImporterExporter]

Didnt Dumart have some success matching up against the Rocket in real life?

I think it was Gordie Howe actually, early 50's, IIRC.

Just food for thought but what about moving Dumart down to the 3rd line and Gillies up? Sure you're losing a good bit of offense there but Malkin and Alfredsson are both strong 2nd line players (Malkin especially) so Gillies can focus on doing what he does best there. Dumart, Larionov and Amonte would give the Thistles more of a checking line, but still apt enough to counter attack.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Congrats to Vancouver on making the playoffs, here's to a good series!

My schedule is jam packed this weekend, so I likely won't get to lineup changes/comparisons until Monday. Also the NHL regular season will be over by then, so we'll know exactly where Malkin's vs.X score is for this season (at the time of this post he's sitting at 99.0).

I will quickly address Habsfan's comments about the PP. While Vancouver does have a good top PP unit, I think you are severely underrating Kenora's top unit.

MacInnis is an elite PP point man, but Geoffrion is also in that class. Geoffrion was the big point shot on what is generally considered the best PP of all time. Please see the following from Joe Pelletier:

With Maurice Richard headlining a who's who of hockey, the Montreal Canadiens had an outstanding power play for years. But when Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion perfected his slap shot from the point, the NHL was forced to take action. With Richard, Jean Beliveau and Dickie Moore up front and Doug Harvey and Geoffrion on the points, the Canadiens often scored two or even three goals during a single minor penalty, so the rules were changed to allow the penalized player back on the ice after a power play goal was scored.

It was "Boom Boom's" dynamic shot that became his trademark. He perfected the now-common slap shot. Firing little discs of frozen rubber at speeds upwards of 100 mph put fear into the hearts of enemy goaltenders as never seen before.

I'm not saying Geoffrion is better than MacInnis in that role, but it's likely close.

As we move on to the other point men, there is a huge advantage for Kenora. Red Kelly is likely the 3rd best offensive/rushing defenseman of all time after Orr and Coffey. Pronovost is average at best for a #2 PP point man, Kelly is a strong #1.

Looking at the forwards, Richard is clearly the best offensively, but both Yzerman and Malkin are well ahead of Firsov/Lindros. While Dave Andreychuk is by far the worst overall player on either unit, he is a strong net front presence on a PP.

Vancouver has a strong top PP unit, but I'd say Kenora's is even better, primarily based on the massive edge Kelly has on Pronovost.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I have to agree with HT. The Thistles 1st unit PP is damn good. Pronovost would seem to the weakest power play specific player on either 1st units. Andreychuk isn't going to get a lot done at ES here but on the PP he's actually got a really good resume.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Its is it unreasonable to think that Malkin is the 2nd best offensive* player in the series and the best one on Kenora?

*he obviously doesnt bring the overall game of Yzerman, Blake, Schmidt, or Firsov

 

[BenchBrawl]

Its is it unreasonable to think that Malkin is the 2nd best offensive* player in the series and the best one on Kenora?

*he obviously doesnt bring the overall game of Yzerman, Blake, Schmidt, or Firsov

Reasonable.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

***LINEUP CHANGE***

I'm swamped at work today, still in the office and not close to leaving, so I won't be getting to any analysis until tomorrow. However, I do have a lineup change to announce...

Woody Dumart will be moving up to the 1st line (Toe Blake down to the 2nd line) in order to check Maurice Richard...obviously Kenora's strategy will be to match 1st lines, IMO the easiest type of matchup to accomplish.

As per the minutes chart, Dumart has no special teams duties, so he will have extra minutes to be sent out with other lines if necessary to cover Richard. For example, right after a PP, where Yzerman and Geoffrion are tired and can't go back out, Dumart will be fresh to fill in on another line. Both Dumart and Blake will take several of Andreychuk's ES shifts.

Some support for Dumart in this role...

Who's Who in Hockey

The Boston Bruins' crack Kraut Line usually spotlighted center Milt Schmidt or right-winger Bobby Bauer. But it's left-winger, Woodrow Wilson Clarence ''Woody'' Dumart, packed a hard shot and did the less flashy checking that kept him more in the shadows than his pals.

One of Dumart' least-publicized but most effective performances occured during the 1953 Stanley Cup semifinals against the first-place Detroit Red Wings. Woody, an aging veteran, was asked to shadow the inimitable Gordie Howe, Detroit's crack right wing. Dumart accomplished his task so well that the Bruins upset the Red Wings in six games and Howe was limited to only two goals.

In the Game

An excellent two-way performer, at he 6'1, 190 lb. Dumart was a five-time 20-goal scorer and was named to the NHL Second All-Star Team three times in 1940, 1941 and 1947. Not only was he a dangerous offensive performer, but Dumart often drew the task of shadowing opponents' top snipers.

​

Legends of Hockey

Known as the one of the best two-way players in the game

, Woody Dumart played 16 years in the National Hockey League with the Boston Bruins.

An outstanding defensive left winger with an above-average scoring touch, Woodrow "Woody" Dumart played nearly 800 regular-season games for the Boston Bruins between 1935 and 1954. He was best known for his achievements with Milt Schmidt and Bobby Bauer on the feared Kraut Line. His leadership and high standard of play made Dumart a fan favorite and helped the Bruins win the Stanley Cup twice.

He proved to be a determined competitor who relished the chance to perform a checking role. Dumart also chipped in with a respectable 27 points in 48 games that year.

​

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Forward Lines

1st Lines

Kenora: Dumart - Yzerman - Geoffrion
Vancouver: Firsov - Schmidt - Richard

Overall ranking:

Geoffrion < Richard*
Yzerman > Schmidt
Dumart << Firsov

*Richard's advantage over Geoffrion is larger than Yzerman's over Schmidt

Offense basis 7yr Vs.X

We obviously don't have a score for Firsov, but perhaps we can look at some other LW's to get an idea?
Doug Bentley: 86.6
Toe Blake: 86.3
Paul Kariya: 84.9
Luc Robitaille: 84.2
Ilya Kovalchuk: 83.9

I'm going to use a score of 85 to evaluate Firsov (the last 3 players on the list clearly are not as good defensively as Firsov and therefore usually get drafted later, but offensively seem like good comparables)

Richard: 102.4
Yzerman: 93.2
Geoffrion: 89.9
Schmidt: 86.9
Firsov: 85.0
Dumart: 72.7

Total/Average per player
Kenora: 255.8 / 85.3
Vancouver: 274.3 / 91.4


Defensive Play (gaps intentional)
Dumart

Schmidt
Yzerman


Firsov


Richard/Geoffrion


Kenora has an edge defensively


Line Construction
Both lines are constructed well, I see nothing lacking on either line.


Matchup
Vancouver's best scoring threat and the best offensive players in the series, Maurice Richard, is being shadowed by a player who was capable of shutting down Gordie Howe in real life. Dumart, however, is very lacking in offense compared to the others, the counter-attack will have to come from his linemates or elite offensive Dman Red Kelly.

Up the middle we have 2-way guys on both teams, Yzerman is better offensively, Schmidt better defensively. These two will check each other well, but for my money Yzerman is the better player and will get an edge in this matchup, although not large.

Geoffrion is the better offensive player, and strictly by the numbers is better than Yzerman on a per game basis (although Geoffrion surely had better teammates). Geoffrion will not provide any defensive help against Firsov, although Firsov is not the caliber of player that requires a shadow (he's a fine 1st liner, but average 1st liners don't need shadows, this is reserved for more elite roles). Firsov is some kind of a plus defensively and will provide some help against Geoffrion, but surely isn't capable of shutting him down.


Overall
Vancouver has the better line, which is not surprising, Vancouver has their best player at each position playing on their top line, while Kenora has their 2nd best LW on the top line for matchup reasons. Kenora does however have a good setup to limit Vancouver's biggest strength, while still providing enough offense to be a serious counter-attack threat.


2nd Lines

Kenora: Blake - Malkin - Alfredsson
Vancouver: Yakushev - Lindros - Middleton

Overall ranking:

Blake > Yakushev
Malkin > Lindros
Alfredsson > Middleton

Offense basis 7yr Vs.X

Again, we don't have a score for Vancouver's Soviet player, Yakushev. I think it's generous to call him equal to Alfredsson offensively (82.3), who has a similar score to Paul Thompson (82.6), Marian Hossa (82.4), Theo Fleury (82.0), John Leclair (81.7). So to keep things simple I'm going to give Yakushev the exact same score as Alfredsson.

Malkin: 93.8 (includes 2017-18)
Toe Blake: 86.3
Lindros: 85.0
Alfredsson: 82.3
Yakushev: 82.3
Middleton: 74.1

Total/Average per player
Kenora: 262.4 / 87.5
Vancouver: 241.4 / 80.5


Defensive Play (gaps intentional)
Alfredsson
Middleton
Blake*

Lindros
Yakushev

Malkin

*Not factoring in Blake's great PK abilities

Close defensively, slight edge to Kenora


Line Construction
Again, both lines are constructed well, I see nothing lacking on either line.


Matchup
Lindros is not good enough defensively to handle Malkin, and at this point Malkin is a much better offensive player. Lindros obviously has a physical edge on Malkin, but Malkin has size, he doesn't use it aggressively to go after people, but he is not easy to push around, and does not get intimidated. Lindros will not be able to impose his will like he could against a smaller and/or softer center.

Blake and Middleton are both two-way guys, who will help check each other, but Blake is easily the better offensive player.

Alfredsson and Yakushev are similar offensively, but Alfredsson should be more effective back checking. Yakushev does have some size advantage on Alfredsson, but Alfie is a pretty gritty player, and will not be intimidated, but there is some advantage size-wise for Vancouver.


Overall
Kenora has the much better line here, and the one elite offensive 2nd liner, Malkin, does not have someone to shadow/strongly check him.


Scoring Lines Summary
Vancouver has the advantage on the 1st line while Kenora has the advantage on the 2nd line. The offensive advantage for Kenora's 2nd line (21.0 vs.X pts) is actually slightly higher than Vancouver's 1st line (18.5 vs.X pts). Further, Kenora's 1st line is better set up to limit Vancouver's advantage on the 1st line than Vancouver's 2nd line is set up to limit Kenora's 2nd line advantage. A lot of this is due to the fact that Dumart is shadowing Richard, while Vancouver doesn't really have an answer for Malkin.




That is all I have time for today. I hope to get to the 3rd/4th lines tomorrow.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Forward Lines continued...

3rd Lines

Kenora: Gillies - Larionov - Amonte
Vancouver: Tikkanen - Carbonneau - Gare

Overall ranking:

Gillies < Tikkanen*
Larionov > Carbonneau
Amonte > Gare

*Gillies-Tikkanen is closer than the other two


Even Strength Offense basis 7yr ES Vs.X
Another Soviet player to deal with here. This is tough, here are some comparables for Larionov...

Darryl Sittler: 57
Eric Staal: 57
Jeremy Roenick: 55
Jacques Lemaire: 55
Henrik Zetterberg: 55
Nicklas Backstrom: 54
Pat Lafontaine: 53
Bernie Nicholls: 53
Ralph Backstrom: 52

My guess is that Larionov belongs somewhere in this range, so I'm going to use a score of 54 for him.

Amonte: 54
Larionov: 54
Gare: 46
Gillies: 41
Tikkanen: 41
Carbonneau: 30.3

Total/Average per player
Kenora: 149 / 49.7
Vancouver: 117.3 / 39.1

Kenora's 3rd line is much better offensively.


Defensive Play (gaps intentional)
Carbonneau

Tikkanen


Larionov
Amonte/Gillies/Gare

Vancouver's 3rd line is much better defensively.


Line Construction
Kenora has a two-way 3rd line built in a more traditional sense, while Vancouver has a shutdown type line, which at this level is very little to zero threat to score.


Matchup
When these lines go head to head Vancouver will limit Kenora's offense for sure, but Vancouver really is not going to score themselves. Gillies should keep Tikkanen's antics in line somewhat.


Overall
We have a two-way line vs. a shutdown line, so their coaches will likely try to use them in different roles. Kenora easily has the better line overall and will win a head-to head matchup when these two are on the ice against each other.


4th Lines

Kenora: Andreychuk/Blake/Dumart - Laprade - Curry*
Vancouver: Mats Naslund - Lepine - Leach

*Andreychuk is only taking half the shift (or likely less in the post season) with Dumart and Blake filling in

Overall ranking:

Andreychuk/Blake/Dumart >> Naslund
Laprade < Lepine
Curry < Leach


Even Strength Offense basis 7yr ES Vs.X
ES Vs.X only goes back to 1960, so several of these players do not have scores: Blake, Dumart, Laprade, Lepine, and Curry
For the remaining guys...
Andreychuk: 46
Naslund: 45
Leach:41

I think Lepine is better offensively than Laprade, and this is why I ranked him as the better player above, they are about the same defensively.

Curry is hard to judge, he was mostly used in a shutdown role but does have some offensive skill. In 1952 he tied with Howe and Lindsay for the playoff scoring lead in a losing effort. In 1955 he took the place of an injured Maurice Richard and put up 12 points in 12 games.


Defensive Play (gaps intentional)
Dumart/Laprade/Lepine
Curry


Blake*

Andreychuk/Naslund
Leach

*Not factoring in Blake’s great PK ability

Kenora’s 4th line is much better defensively.


Line Construction
Lepine is doing all the defensive work for Vancouver’s 4th line, I don’t see much help from Leach or Naslund in winning pucks/corner work, this appears to be a weakness on this line. Kenora’s is fine as defensive line, don’t expect much offense, although Blake will be a threat the other way when out there.


Matchup
When these lines go head to head it will depend on who plays the left side for Kenora, but generally Vancouver has more offensive power and Kenora is much better defensively.


Overall
I wouldn’t call Vancouver’s 4th line a two-way line as Lepine is the only one with any notable defensive ability. Kenora has a strong shutdown line when Dumart is out there, a slightly lesser verseion when Blake is out there with more of a threat on the counter attack, and a good defensive line when Andreychuk is out there.


Bottom 6 Summary
Vancouver has 2/3’s of a very strong shutdown line, but they will provide virtually zero offense. If the Vancouver coaches chase matchups to deploy this line overall team offense could suffer as minutes are taken away from other lines. I think Vancouver’s 4th line is a weakness for them. If they are deployed against any of Kenora’s top 3 lines they will be heavily outmatched, and they aren’t good enough defensively to limit the scoring. Kenora has a two-way 3rd line that will be at an advantage facing either of Vancouver’s 3rd/4th lines. They will be outmatched if they happen to find themselves out against either of Vancouver’s scoring lines, but with 3 players that are a plus defensively and a counter-attack threat, it’s not a terrible situation. Kenora’s 4th line is a good second option to match against Vancouver’s 1st line when the power vs. power matchup can’t be had. They can be trusted to face any line, but will provide very little offense.

 

[Thenameless]

Bottom 6 Summary
Vancouver has 2/3’s of a very strong shutdown line, but they will provide virtually zero offense. If the Vancouver coaches chase matchups to deploy this line overall team offense could suffer as minutes are taken away from other lines. I think Vancouver’s 4th line is a weakness for them. If they are deployed against any of Kenora’s top 3 lines they will be heavily outmatched, and they aren’t good enough defensively to limit the scoring. Kenora has a two-way 3rd line that will be at an advantage facing either of Vancouver’s 3rd/4th lines. They will be outmatched if they happen to find themselves out against either of Vancouver’s scoring lines, but with 3 players that are a plus defensively and a counter-attack threat, it’s not a terrible situation. Kenora’s 4th line is a good second option to match against Vancouver’s 1st line when the power vs. power matchup can’t be had. They can be trusted to face any line, but will provide very little offense.

I like to think of Vancouver's 4th line as a bit of a "high risk/high reward" line. While they may not be a traditional goon or checking type 4th line, Mats Naslund was a pretty nifty playmaker and Reggie Leach was a two-time fifty goal scorer. I imagine they would get theirs too, especially when going up against other fourth lines. Every member of this line also won a Stanley Cup.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I like to think of Vancouver's 4th line as a bit of a "high risk/high reward" line. While they may not be a traditional goon or checking type 4th line, Mats Naslund was a pretty nifty playmaker and Reggie Leach was a two-time fifty goal scorer. I imagine they would get theirs too, especially when going up against other fourth lines. Every member of this line also won a Stanley Cup.

How many of those points came on the PP? These guys are playing ES only and as you can see their scoring is not great, much lower than a guy like Amonte. Leach in particular looks very poor for an offense only type of player, on the same level as Tikkanen and Gillies who both bring loads of non-offensive skills to the table.

 

[Thenameless]

How many of those points came on the PP? These guys are playing ES only and as you can see their scoring is not great, much lower than a guy like Amonte. Leach in particular looks very poor for an offense only type of player, on the same level as Tikkanen and Gillies who both bring loads of non-offensive skills to the table.

You need to do your homework.

In Leach's best season he scored 61 goals (this would have won a retro-Richard Trophy by the way), which is much higher than anything Tikkanen, Gillies, or Amonte ever produced. Only 10 of those were on the power play - around 16%. In Leach's second best season he had 50 goals, only 5 of which were on the power play - 10%, while 4 came shorthanded. Amonte's 3 best goal scoring seasons were 41, 44, and 43 with 9, 14, and 11 coming on the power play respectively. Those percentages work out to 22%, 32%, and 25%. The Riverton Rifle was a much deadlier goal scorer, AND relied less heavily on the power play than did Amonte. If you want to include Leach's 3rd best season we have 45 goals, 12 of which were scored on the PP, for about 27% - still lower than Amonte's highest, and close to his second highest.

Reggie Leach still holds the record for most goals in one playoff season with 19. He also won the Conn Smythe Trophy that same year, more impressively so while on the losing team.

As I said before, expect this line to score, and get scored on.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

You need to do your homework.

In Leach's best season he scored 61 goals (this would have won a retro-Richard Trophy by the way), which is much higher than anything Tikkanen, Gillies, or Amonte ever produced. Only 10 of those were on the power play - around 16%. In Leach's second best season he had 50 goals, only 5 of which were on the power play - 10%, while 4 came shorthanded. Amonte's 3 best goal scoring seasons were 41, 44, and 43 with 9, 14, and 11 coming on the power play respectively. Those percentages work out to 22%, 32%, and 25%. The Riverton Rifle was a much deadlier goal scorer, AND relied less heavily on the power play than did Amonte. If you want to include Leach's 3rd best season we have 45 goals, 12 of which were scored on the PP, for about 27% - still lower than Amonte's highest, and close to his second highest.

Reggie Leach still holds the record for most goals in one playoff season with 19. He also won the Conn Smythe Trophy that same year, more impressively so while on the losing team.

As I said before, expect this line to score, and get scored on.

Here's some homework for you...

For some reason you are only talking about goals above. The analysis I was referring to is based on the best 7 years of even strength point scoring, which is a much better indicator of offensive production than even strength goal scoring (this should have been clear when I mentioned points instead of goals in my reply). That analysis also makes adjustments for changes in league scoring levels over time and is therefore a better metric to compare players of different eras. For example, without looking, I would bet that league scoring levels were much higher the year Leach scored 61 goals than one of those years you listed for Amonte. I'm sure you can see that it is unfair to simply use the raw numbers.

I appreciate your participation, but please don't be so quick to tell someone to "do their homework" unless you're sure you understand how their analysis works. If you'd like a more detailed understanding of the vs.X metric there are threads on the history board and numbers board which should suffice.

 

[Thenameless]

Here's some homework for you...

For some reason you are only talking about goals above. The analysis I was referring to is based on the best 7 years of even strength point scoring, which is a much better indicator of offensive production than even strength goal scoring (this should have been clear when I mentioned points instead of goals in my reply). That analysis also makes adjustments for changes in league scoring levels over time and is therefore a better metric to compare players of different eras. For example, without looking, I would bet that league scoring levels were much higher the year Leach scored 61 goals than one of those years you listed for Amonte. I'm sure you can see that it is unfair to simply use the raw numbers.

I appreciate your participation, but please don't be so quick to tell someone to "do their homework" unless you're sure you understand how their analysis works. If you'd like a more detailed understanding of the vs.X metric there are threads on the history board and numbers board which should suffice.

In my original post I specifically said that Mats Naslund was a nifty playmaker and that Reggie Leach was a two-time fifty goal scorer. How the points are scored matter as much as raw totals and vs.X metrics. These two look to me like they would complement each other nicely from an offensive standpoint (with Lepine doing all of the defensive work as you've already mentioned).

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

In my original post I specifically said that Mats Naslund was a nifty playmaker and that Reggie Leach was a two-time fifty goal scorer. How the points are scored matter as much as raw totals and vs.X metrics. These two look to me like they would complement each other nicely from an offensive standpoint (with Lepine doing all of the defensive work as you've already mentioned).

I agree that the playmaking/goalscoring of the line is fine, I did not criticize that aspect of the line in my analysis, the concern was a lack of puck winning/corner work.

Surely you can see that my last post was referring to yours right before it which contained a numerical analysis of raw goal totals, and had no mention of points. I stated that Leach had poor ES point production based on an analysis of each player's best 7 years adjusted for league scoring level, to which you countered with an analysis of only goal scoring of only each player's 3 best years, not adjusted for league scoring level, and also told me to "do my homework." Which of those sounds like a more accurate way to analyze ES offensive ability for players of different eras?

You are correct that when analyzing offensive ability how points are scored matters, but it doesn't trump a large difference in point production. If 2 players in the same season/situation score about the same amount of points then generally I would consider the player with more goals to be better offensively.

I think we can end this, the voters should have enough information to decide for themselves which is the better metric.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Defense Pairs

1st Pair
Kenora: Red Kelly - Butch Bouchard
Vancouver: MacInnis - Pronovost

Kelly > MacInnis*
Bouchard < Pronovost

*I have the difference between Kelly and MacInnis as larger. It is also more important as they are the #1's.

Kelly is an above average/elite #1, while MacInnis is a below average #1.
Pronovost is an average #2, while Bouchard is high-end #3

Kelly and Bouchard compliment each other well, a highly offensive rushing Dman paired with a stay-at-home defensive Dman

MacInnis and Pronovost don't compliment each other as well as Kenora's duo, but I don't see it as a large issue. Pronovost was known to play a rushing/kamikaze style, and MacInnis was primarily offensive. Both players transitioned to more of a two-way style later in their careers.

Edge Kenora


2nd Pair
Kenora: Lutchenko - Thomson
Vancouver: Beck - Flaman

Thomson > Flaman
Lutchenko > Beck

Thomson as an above average #3 and Flaman as an average #3.
Lutchenko is a border-line #3/#4, while I have Beck as an average #4.

Kenora's pairing is more focused on defense, they are lacking rushing, but can move the puck.
Vancouver's pairing is also more focused on defense. They are more rugged/physical than Kenora's pairing.

Edge Kenora


3rd Pair
Kenora: Watson - Subban
Vancouver: Ozolinsh - Talbot

Subban > Ozolinsh
Watson = Talbot

Subban has been in the NHL for 9 years and is building a pretty solid resume. He has been his team's #1 or Co-#1 in 7 of those seasons, with 2 1st Team AS's and a 1st and 3rd in Norris voting. Subban has had a strong season this year, a Co-#1 with Josi on the best team in the league, finishing only 5 points off the team lead in points and 9 points behind the league's top Dman scorer. It's fairly likely Subban will add a top 5 Norris finish this season.
Ozolinsh only has one significant Norris/AS finish (3rd and 1st Team AS), although he was also a #1 Dman on a Cup winner. Ozolinsh obviously has a lot more years in the league than Subban.
Watson was a two-way Dman with a short career, but was Philly's #1 for 3 consecutive trips to the Finals and 2 Cup Wins.
Talbot has a 3rd place finish in Norris voting and was part of 7 Cup Winners, but never his team's #1, and most likely not even the #2 behind guys like Harvey, Johnson, Bouchard, Tremblay, Laperriere

Small edge Kenora

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Goaltending

Durnan has the better regular season resume in terms of AS finishes, although some of those are war years and there is a pattern during this era where the 1st team AS always went to the lowest GAA. Broda has a much better post season resume and is one of the best money goaltenders of all time. Broda also has a huge longevity advantage as he played quite long for his era, whereas Durnan only played 7 seasons.

Durnan's team's finished 1st in the regular season 4 times and 2nd once, but only managed to win 2 Cups, and made it to the Final only one other time. One of Durnan's Cup wins came in a full war year (44) and the other came in a partial war year (46).

Broda played 12 full seasons, and a small part of 1 other, with 44, 45, and most of 46 missed due to WWII. Not including those 3 war years, Broda's teams finished 1st in the regular season 2x and 2nd 4x. Over that same time span they won 5 Cups and made it to the Finals 3 other times.

In a 7-game playoff series I give the edge to Broda.