GDT: Jets vs Canucks - Rogers Arena - Oct 12, 9:00pm CT

Status
Not open for further replies.

Peggy

Registered User
Aug 6, 2016
5,274
1,307
Still think that bottom 6 is really bad

As long as Maurice keeps playing lines like this I'll probably remain pessimistic
 
  • Like
Reactions: thegr8one66

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
For some reason I can handle looking at the lineup a little better if I mentally picture the Petan/Copp/Dano line as line 3 and the Matthais/Lowry/Tanev line as line 4. I know the minutes won't shake out that way though.

Looking forward to watching Poolman again and seeing if he continues his play. Long shot prediction, I think he's going to score trailing on a rush with a blast after receiving a drop pass. ;)

Why?

Dano/Copp/Petan looked like hot garbage with their minutes against the Oilers. Think they had like 1 shot attempt for and 12 against. They were also sheltered when they could be.

Meanwhile, Matthias/Lowry/Tanev were quite effective with much tougher minutes and just about 0 sheltering. Over 50% corsi for Lowry.

I don't understand why people think that possessing "skill" (whatever that means) makes you a more effective NHLer than guys who actually produce consistent results (Lowry anyways, not always sure how he carries around the Tanev's and Matthias' of the world and doesn't sink)

Having whatever "skill" that Petan/Copp/Dano do that Lowry does not doesn't seem to make them more effective NHLers at this point.
 

pucka lucka

Registered User
Apr 7, 2010
5,913
2,581
Ottawa
Why?

Dano/Copp/Petan looked like hot garbage with their minutes against the Oilers. Think they had like 1 shot attempt for and 12 against. They were also sheltered when they could be.

Meanwhile, Matthias/Lowry/Tanev were quite effective with much tougher minutes and just about 0 sheltering. Over 50% corsi for Lowry.

I don't understand why people think that possessing "skill" (whatever that means) makes you a more effective NHLer than guys who actually produce consistent results (Lowry anyways, not always sure how he carries around the Tanev's and Matthias' of the world and doesn't sink)

Having whatever "skill" that Petan/Copp/Dano do that Lowry does not doesn't seem to make them more effective NHLers at this point.

Hmmm. You know that Petan is pretty great when he is playing with talented players? I am still trying to figure out how a fan of the team wouldn't want to at least test Petan with better players. Every measure we have for Petan says playing him with plugs is bad. Playing him with talent increases his performance significantly while also improving his line mates performance.

Your new claim is that Lowry is being dragged down by Matthias? Matthias has a history of being a far superior scorer. Lowry is a bad 5on5 scorer. He only scored in junior as a 19 year old.

Agreeing with the coach doesn't make you right, it just means you agree with the coach.
 

csk

Registered User
Nov 5, 2015
2,682
269
Winnipeg, MB
Hmmm. You know that Petan is pretty great when he is playing with talented players? I am still trying to figure out how a fan of the team wouldn't want to at least test Petan with better players. Every measure we have for Petan says playing him with plugs is bad. Playing him with talent increases his performance significantly while also improving his line mates performance.

Your new claim is that Lowry is being dragged down by Matthias? Matthias has a history of being a far superior scorer. Lowry is a bad 5on5 scorer. He only scored in junior as a 19 year old.

Agreeing with the coach doesn't make you right, it just means you agree with the coach.

Matthias is a Corsi anchor though
 

Huffer

Registered User
Jul 16, 2010
16,672
6,243
Why?

Dano/Copp/Petan looked like hot garbage with their minutes against the Oilers. Think they had like 1 shot attempt for and 12 against. They were also sheltered when they could be.

Meanwhile, Matthias/Lowry/Tanev were quite effective with much tougher minutes and just about 0 sheltering. Over 50% corsi for Lowry.

I don't understand why people think that possessing "skill" (whatever that means) makes you a more effective NHLer than guys who actually produce consistent results (Lowry anyways, not always sure how he carries around the Tanev's and Matthias' of the world and doesn't sink)

Having whatever "skill" that Petan/Copp/Dano do that Lowry does not doesn't seem to make them more effective NHLers at this point.

I like Lowry, but I don't think this team is going anywhere with guys like Matthais and Tanev playing any sort of significant role in the middle 6. I think we've seen good corsi numbers in the past with the MLA line, but they still couldn't score much if I remember correctly. Ideally I'd love to have a more skilled 2 way 3C as well, and have Lowry as the 4C and main PK.

It's true that Dano/Petan/Copp could not be a good line. I'd rather move a different winger into the top 6 and bring Perreault down to the 3rd, but that might not happen unless they bring Connor back. I do think though that over time, that our skill guys like Petan, Dano, etc, can improve more on defense than guys like Matthais and Tanev can improve on offense. Personally, I think to succeed we're going to need a third line that can contribute offensively (while being good at defense as well). I don't see that happening with Matthais and Tanev, but I think there's a chance with the other guys.
 

DashingDane

Paul Maurice <3
Dec 16, 2014
3,359
5,102
Los Angeles
I'm kind of worried about this one.. They weren't great against teams that should be "easy" wins last season. I think it will be close with Laine hopefully getting us the OT win.
 

DRC

WestJet
Feb 23, 2015
768
594
Vancouver Island
Lost my travel bag and my "buddy" gave me this for the boat over...

Picture didn't upload. It's a nucks bag when I'm decked out jets gear
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
10,538
7,218
Why?

Dano/Copp/Petan looked like hot garbage with their minutes against the Oilers. Think they had like 1 shot attempt for and 12 against. They were also sheltered when they could be.

Meanwhile, Matthias/Lowry/Tanev were quite effective with much tougher minutes and just about 0 sheltering. Over 50% corsi for Lowry.

I don't understand why people think that possessing "skill" (whatever that means) makes you a more effective NHLer than guys who actually produce consistent results (Lowry anyways, not always sure how he carries around the Tanev's and Matthias' of the world and doesn't sink)

Having whatever "skill" that Petan/Copp/Dano do that Lowry does not doesn't seem to make them more effective NHLers at this point.
Lowry is damn consistent - it is the usage that rubs people the wrong way. The one in game 1, that is. He has no place in any line in which he would have to produce points consistently, for he lacks the talent to do that. In a shutdown role, on a shutdown line, he is a great, great player to have. He has all the tools a shutdown center ever needs.

Now, whether your third line is supposed to have Lowry in it, that's debatable. I personally think that he shouldn't be there, but Maurice seems to disagree.
 

TorJet

Registered User
Jun 27, 2016
313
201
I feel like if the movie “Rudy” were to play out today, many on this board would be arguing vehemently against using Rudy in the last scene of the movie against Georgia Tech due to his negative possession numbers...

I’m a major proponent of advanced stats - however we need to remember that they’re one tool in the arsenal but they still miss wide swaths of information and data, as anyone in that community would agree.

A player like Tanev is not a great hockey player, as borne out by the statistics. However, he works his arse off, brings full effort every shift and forces the other players in the bottom 6 to bring a similar effort. His very presence means that players like Armia, Copp, Petan, etc can be realistically threatened with the press box as Armia is seeing now. This is a valuable tool for the coaching staff - a lightning rod for effort.

This board takes far too much of a micro-analysis despite obstensibly relying on macro statistics. This is not how the team will look at the end of the season, so why are we so concerned about the makeup of the bottom 6 in game 4? Perhaps it’s a necessary evil to play a guy like Tanev over a better player like Armia at this point In the year in order to underline the effort required night in and night out in order to find success.
 

Eyeseeing

Fagheddaboudit
Sponsor
Feb 24, 2015
22,090
36,557
Hope we win because this place is fun to be at when we are winning.
Last game everyone got along and had some laughs.
GJG
Except I’m concerned about Sip’s drinking issues.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
Lowry is damn consistent - it is the usage that rubs people the wrong way. The one in game 1, that is. He has no place in any line in which he would have to produce points consistently, for he lacks the talent to do that. In a shutdown role, on a shutdown line, he is a great, great player to have. He has all the tools a shutdown center ever needs.

Now, whether your third line is supposed to have Lowry in it, that's debatable. I personally think that he shouldn't be there, but Maurice seems to disagree.
Jets don't score much when Lowry is on the ice, but they also don't give up much, despite having him face good competition and a high proportion of D zone starts. If his line can consistently play his opponents to a standstill, then the Jets' top 2 lines should be able to carry the advantage.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
Hmmm. You know that Petan is pretty great when he is playing with talented players? I am still trying to figure out how a fan of the team wouldn't want to at least test Petan with better players. Every measure we have for Petan says playing him with plugs is bad. Playing him with talent increases his performance significantly while also improving his line mates performance.

Your new claim is that Lowry is being dragged down by Matthias? Matthias has a history of being a far superior scorer. Lowry is a bad 5on5 scorer. He only scored in junior as a 19 year old.

Agreeing with the coach doesn't make you right, it just means you agree with the coach.

Petan was playing with Copp and Dano. Those weren't the types of players that Petan traditionally struggled playing with. Not sure how anything you said discounts that. Maybe we should create a special line just for Petan, We can play him with Chef and Wheeler so he doesn't become a boat anchor.

Matthias might score but surprise that's not the only way we evaluate players! He's generally thought of as being a poor Corsi performer. Tanev in his limited sample is also terrible with shot metrics.

Time and time again Lowry takes tough minutes with questionable linemates and generally keeps his head above water.

How else do you want me to explain this? Just because the coach does something you don't agree with doesn't mean the method you'd prefer he deploys/composes lines would garner a better result from the team.
 
Last edited:

Mathil8

▌▌▌│▌▌│▌▌▌│▌▌│▌▌▌
Jul 24, 2011
1,687
929
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Gameday!

Looking forward to tonight's game. Let's get on a roll and keep the winz coming pls.
I believe we get Beyak & Ray Ferraro tonight on the TSN broadcast! I was hoping Ray would do all our TSN west coast games. Suck it sportsnet.

Last game, I liked having a fully rested, non pp, fully intact Lowry line to put on the ice right after our PP to go against the opposition's best. It didn't feel disjointed and they can usually handle a pushback from the other teams best.

Roll 4 lines, make all the saves, score all the goals, take all the points!

Go:jetsGo!

Can anyone tell me who was our colour guy during the Edmonton game?
 

ffh

Registered User
Jul 16, 2016
8,362
5,073
Hmmm. You know that Petan is pretty great when he is playing with talented players? I am still trying to figure out how a fan of the team wouldn't want to at least test Petan with better players. Every measure we have for Petan says playing him with plugs is bad. Playing him with talent increases his performance significantly while also improving his line mates performance.

Your new claim is that Lowry is being dragged down by Matthias? Matthias has a history of being a far superior scorer. Lowry is a bad 5on5 scorer. He only scored in junior as a 19 year old.

Agreeing with the coach doesn't make you right, it just means you agree with the coach.
if this is true then petan better think of getting into a new line of work because he will only be playing with these so called plugs for the rest of his career.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,557
5,258
Winnipeg
Ehlers Scheifele Wheeler
Perreault Little Laine
Matthias Lowry Tanev
Petan Copp Dano

Morrissey Trouba
Kulikov Myers
Enstrom Poolman

Hellebuyck

So we have a top 6 that is supposed to provide offence, yet both Ehlers & Laine are placed on their natural sides for defensive purposes.

Meanwhile the bottom 6 that is supposed to be playing shutdown hockey has Tanev & Dano playing their off wings.

...sigh
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
In another thread (now closed), there was reference to an article by Dellow that cited how bad the Jets 3rd line was last year in goal differential.

I had a quick look at Corsica data to investigate, and thought the results were interesting.

Here are the on-ice goal differentials (5v5) for lines centered by Jets' centres last season. Note, for Perreault and Burmi I only looked at the data for the lines on which they played with two wingers, to isolate lines on which they played C. Occasionally, it was ambiguous (e.g. Copp with Burmi), so I omitted those data from the summary.

5v5 on-ice goal differential (2016/17):

Scheifele +15
Little -1
Lowry -2
Copp -2
Burmi -5
Perreault -11

What's clear is that a lot of the poor goal differential 5v5 happened when Perreault was at C. But GD only tells you what happened, and isn't a very good way of forecasting what will happen. So I dug a bit deeper into Perreault's role as a C and looked at the total raw Corsi (5v5) for line combinations where he was C.

Perreault at C: CF 177 CA 210 CF% 45.7

Given Perreault's remarkable performance on the wing, clearly the most important message is that Perreault should not play C.

Oh, and Little needs a bounce-back season if the Jets are going to make a lot of noise.

clearly the most important message is that Perreault should not play C

That GD was accumulated in a relatively short TOI.

My gut feeling is that Little and Laine do not mesh. That can change of course but I think the solution is for Laine and Wheeler to switch lines. Without that I'm not confident that Little bounces back. May be hard to argue that point after the game ESW just had but it might have been as good or even better with ESL. No way to know. Meanwhile both Little and especially Laine appear lost.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
Just to be clear. Ideally Lowry isn't my 3rd line center. However, I don't trust Petan, Copp or Roslo at that spot taking the same kind of matchups.

I'd love to drop MP down to the third line to help out but then we loose our best play driver in the top 6. I want Laing playing with MP for now to help him spend more time in the offensive zone. That leaves Ehlers as a candidate to drop to the 3rd line but I don't want to break up one of the leagues best lines in ESW.

Although I prefer not having Lowry as a 3C, until we don't need to shelter or support a Petan/Copp/Roslo type with one of our high end wingers I'm okay with Lowry where he is.

Lowry gets the minutes he does because he doesn't need to be sheltered. They aren't gifted to him by the coaching staff.
 
  • Like
Reactions: roccerfeller

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
I'm still also not sure what the obsession is with regards to uniting Ehlers/Scheifele/Laine.

Besides a couple of point scoring sprees all the other numbers suggested they were being fed their lunch more often than not. They had bad underlying numbers that implied they were going to get outscored badly if left together.

This problem was especially prevalent on the road when PoMo couldn't control match ups.

A ESL line and a PLW line puts our 3 best play drivers together and 2/3 of our best scorers together.

What's most confusing is that the same reasoning to spread out our talent across 3 lines doesn't ever seem to enter the equation when we talk about a top 6 that has ESL and PLW.

Why wouldn't you want a play driver on each line?
 
Last edited:

Huffer

Registered User
Jul 16, 2010
16,672
6,243
Just to be clear. Ideally Lowry isn't my 3rd line center. However, I don't trust Petan, Copp or Roslo at that spot taking the same kind of matchups.

I'd love to drop MP down to the third line to help out but then we loose our best play driver in the top 6. I want Laing playing with MP for now to help him spend more time in the offensive zone. That leaves Ehlers as a candidate to drop to the 3rd line but I don't want to break up one of the leagues best lines in ESW.

Although I prefer not having Lowry as a 3C, until we don't need to shelter or support a Petan/Copp/Roslo type with one of our high end wingers I'm okay with Lowry where he is.

Lowry gets the minutes he does because he doesn't need to be sheltered. They aren't gifted to him by the coaching staff.

I think this is all fair Dogs (except even mentioning Ehlers and the 3rd line in the same sentence. Blasphemous! ;))

I think a lot of us are hoping that Roslovic can become a skilled 3C at some point soon, which could move Lowry to 4C. Agree that Roslo isn't quite there yet though.

I do have a hope that both Connor (who is close if not there), and Roslovic are ready for the jump sooner rather than later. That would really give us a skill infusion in the top 9. Someone would likely have to go, but that's another story.
 
  • Like
Reactions: roccerfeller

Blue Shakehead

because lol Jets
Mar 18, 2011
3,038
1,591
www.becauseloljets.com
I wonder which team shows up tonight? On the one hand, they are coming off a huge win and plenty of rest.

On the other hand, they've had several days off to work on their game with Paul Maurice filling their heads with all kinds of details and nonsense - similar to the small break between the end of pre-season (great) and the start of the regular season (i.e., nightmare).

I expect we will know in the first 15 minutes.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->