Confirmed with Link: Jets sign Hellebuyck to 1 year $2.25M contract

Unholy goalie

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Jul 11, 2011
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I didn't see the Mtl game you saw. I saw Helle be amazing and be abandoned by his team. He let in 4 when most would have let in 10.

I think you're right to an extent that things beyond Helle's control led to more goals against (we can throw reffing into it as well), but there were many elements to his game that night that were less than inspiring. The first Shaw goal and the Plekanec goal he was too deep in his net (and not totally square), and on the Petry goal he was too busy tripping Danault and didn't track the puck properly. Don't get me wrong, Helle also made some great high danger saves that kept the Jets in the game, but just because it could have been worse doesn't make his performance better than it was. I'm also not saying it was a bad game by Helle.. I mean, he got peppered with 50 shots and was hung out to dry a few times... but I think overconfidence for both Helle and the team started to creep in and focus dropped from the Dallas game through the Montreal game. Remember, the Jets were up 4-2 in the third against MTL. I feel like had Mason been in net, the team would have been a bit sharper and we would have had a goalie in net who was much more focused on proving himself.

At the end of the day, Helle let in 5 goals and he had a pretty average game (by league-wide standards).
 

Unholy goalie

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Just looked at the sked, Philly up in two games so there goes my theory of Mason playing again Tuesday. Now I think he rotates the next two, Helly Yotes and then Mason former team. Id roll Mason out next game and go from there.

Unless he plays Mason for both :amazed:

By Mo's own logic he should play Mason tomorrow, and then if playing against a former team is important he'll go back to him for Philly.

I agree with you that Mase should get the next start, then reevaluate. Looking ahead at this month there's a number of things that could happen:


If we group by difficulty of opponent we have

ARI/PHI (less difficult)

NJ /NSH/LAK (more difficult)

ANA (less difficult)

SJS (more difficult)

MIN/COL (less difficult)

There are other contextual factors, like the b2b with ANA/SJS and the fact that ANA generally beats us no matter where they are in the standings. In any case, there are a number of ways these games could get split. Assuming both goalies are playing above league average in things like sv%, xsv%, GSAA, I'd like to see the following:

ARI/PHI/NJD (Mason), NSH/LAK (Helle), ANA (Mason), SJS/MIN (Helle), COL (Mason)

This would need to be reevaluated after each game of course, but if everyone is firing on all cylinders I think we get the most points out of this rotation.
 

Adam da bomb

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I think you're right to an extent that things beyond Helle's control led to more goals against (we can throw reffing into it as well), but there were many elements to his game that night that were less than inspiring. The first Shaw goal and the Plekanec goal he was too deep in his net (and not totally square), and on the Petry goal he was too busy tripping Danault and didn't track the puck properly. Don't get me wrong, Helle also made some great high danger saves that kept the Jets in the game, but just because it could have been worse doesn't make his performance better than it was. I'm also not saying it was a bad game by Helle.. I mean, he got peppered with 50 shots and was hung out to dry a few times... but I think overconfidence for both Helle and the team started to creep in and focus dropped from the Dallas game through the Montreal game. Remember, the Jets were up 4-2 in the third against MTL. I feel like had Mason been in net, the team would have been a bit sharper and we would have had a goalie in net who was much more focused on proving himself.

At the end of the day, Helle let in 5 goals and he had a pretty average game (by league-wide standards).
The first goal was because Morrissey was cross checked behind the net so Shaw was wide open. The last goal was because Helle could not foresee Enstrom and Buff being that useless. Then there was two goals that should have been called back because Helle's hand was slashed and goaltender interference. Having said that I am well aware you know 100x more about goaltending than I would learn in 5 lifetimes.
 

Unholy goalie

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Jul 11, 2011
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The first goal was because Morrissey was cross checked behind the net so Shaw was wide open. The last goal was because Helle could not foresee Enstrom and Buff being that useless. Then there was two goals that should have been called back because Helle's hand was slashed and goaltender interference. Having said that I am well aware you know 100x more about goaltending than I would learn in 5 lifetimes.

Don't sell yourself short. I'm no expert. We can have different takes on things without anyone having to be necessarily right: talking about those differences often leads to better understanding for everyone.

I'm not sure about the first goal as I didn't see a crosscheck that impacted the play. Morrissey looks to me like he had a chance to pick up Shaw, although he also seemed preoccupied with Pacioretty. I noticed that just before Drouin snapped his shot, Helle did a quick check and dropped back in the crease likely in anticipation of a one-timer from Weber. Drouin instead wrists it against the flow and Shaw gets enough of a tip to send it sideways. Helle almost had it, and would have likely gloved it if he stayed at the top of his crease (even in spite of the gnarly screen).

I don't blame Helle for the OT goal, or the goal that Shaw got from hitting the puck out of his glove, and as such didn't reference those in my assessment of his play. So I guess we agree on those, but that doesn't change my argument.

The thing though about playing "what if" or "shoulda" with some goals that go in (ie. that shoulda been interference, or what if Buff made a better play) is that to be fair, you have to also play that game with all the pucks Helle saved. I'm not sure that applying the what if/shoulda test to all the shots he saved as well as the goals he let in puts Helle in a better spot statistically than he ended up. For example, his GSAA for the game was 0.08 meaning he wasn't exactly stealing any goals from the Habs (compared to what a league average goalie would do). His sv% for the game was below league average, so if you wanted to credit Helle for being better than .900 you could easily say he played more like an average starter (around .911). That increase still doesn't put him close to his personal average (at the time it was .938 but is now .926) and it still supports the downward trend that began against Dallas.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I get it. But when a coach sees all those points pile up with one tendy he's willing to wait for that one loss and can live with it. That's what Pmo was thinking and I bet he told Mason your turn to take a run.

No, I don't think you quite get it yet. It isn't one loss. It is one to start but then you don't know if that was just one off game so you try another. You lose that one but maybe it wasn't the goalies fault. So you give it one more and then finally recognize that the streak is over. That's what I mean by 1 too many. That is human nature. Everybody does it that way. That's why we can't all become billionaires in the stock market.

I think you have a #1 and a #2. Roughly speaking, 1 gets 3 starts and 2 gets 1. Adjust for the sched, etc. When/if #2 starts playing better than #1, he becomes #1. Repeat. Trying to ride a hot hand is futile. JMO.
 

puck stoppa

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No, I don't think you quite get it yet. It isn't one loss. It is one to start but then you don't know if that was just one off game so you try another. You lose that one but maybe it wasn't the goalies fault. So you give it one more and then finally recognize that the streak is over. That's what I mean by 1 too many. That is human nature. Everybody does it that way. That's why we can't all become billionaires in the stock market.

I think you have a #1 and a #2. Roughly speaking, 1 gets 3 starts and 2 gets 1. Adjust for the sched, etc. When/if #2 starts playing better than #1, he becomes #1. Repeat. Trying to ride a hot hand is futile. JMO.
Nope. I have coached enough teams and goalies. You never look ahead and worry about how many games each plays. I play it one game at a time, don't commit to anything, and it has worked for me as a coach. Riding a hot hand is a gut feeling, lots of factors obviously factor in too, but I think it's more complex than what you say and also different than what you think Im saying. It's tough to gauge, but you literally play it one game at a time. I would have done it different than Pmo, and I would do it different than you, and to finish, I don't want to give up my secret cause how else will I make the show as coach ;)
Man this is pathetic, Im starting to talk in riddles like garret
edit: and I should say, quit using stock market as example, Ive always felt Ive had a good grasp on goalies when Ive played, coached and watched the game. It's not the same, you can see and feel certain things as coach that can lead you a certain way much unlike your lame stock market example. Oh and did I say....... I get it.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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Nope. I have coached enough teams and goalies. You never look ahead and worry about how many games each plays. I play it one game at a time, don't commit to anything, and it has worked for me as a coach. Riding a hot hand is a gut feeling, lots of factors obviously factor in too, but I think it's more complex than what you say and also different than what you think Im saying. It's tough to gauge, but you literally play it one game at a time. I would have done it different than Pmo, and I would do it different than you, and to finish, I don't want to give up my secret cause how else will I make the show as coach ;)
Man this is pathetic, Im starting to talk in riddles like garret
edit: and I should say, quit using stock market as example, Ive always felt Ive had a good grasp on goalies when Ive played, coached and watched the game. It's not the same, you can see and feel certain things as coach that can lead you a certain way much unlike your lame stock market example.

:laugh: I can go along with a coach's gut feeling. That is a different story than the riding a hot hand. Gut feeling is how we describe an instinctive blending of experience factors. How was the goalie last game, in practice and everything else you know about him and the game. Of course some coaches will do it well and some will be terrible.

Sorry you don't like my analogy. I think it is pretty good. :) Not for a coach's game to game instinct but for trying to guess streaks - they are not the same thing.
 

puck stoppa

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:laugh: I can go along with a coach's gut feeling. That is a different story than the riding a hot hand. Gut feeling is how we describe an instinctive blending of experience factors. How was the goalie last game, in practice and everything else you know about him and the game. Of course some coaches will do it well and some will be terrible.

Sorry you don't like my analogy. I think it is pretty good. :) Not for a coach's game to game instinct but for trying to guess streaks - they are not the same thing.
Gut feeling and streaks do go hand in hand my friend. You can ride a hot hand and still plug in the other goalie in that streak, that's my point. Pmo chose to play Helly till he lost, but there is another way to do it and you can play hot hand and give him a night off and go back to him. Schedule can dictate this. Guessing streaks is tough lots goes into deciding who starts at least for me. Pmo is not always the best, and I wouldn't have done it same way as him, but he went with guy till he lost so be it. Knowing how to handle goalies is an art no doubt. You guys keep saying goalies are voodoo, so leave the voodoo to the voodoo lol
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Gut feeling and streaks do go hand in hand my friend. You can ride a hot hand and still plug in the other goalie in that streak, that's my point. Pmo chose to play Helly till he lost, but there is another way to do it and you can play hot hand and give him a night off and go back to him. Schedule can dictate this. Guessing streaks is tough lots goes into deciding who starts at least for me. Pmo is not always the best, and I wouldn't have done it same way as him, but he went with guy till he lost so be it. Knowing how to handle goalies is an art no doubt. You guys keep saying goalies are voodoo, so leave the voodoo to the voodoo lol

I think we aren't far apart on this. If chicken bones can point you in the right direction I won't criticize - as long as it works.
 

Eyeseeing

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Gut feeling and streaks do go hand in hand my friend. You can ride a hot hand and still plug in the other goalie in that streak, that's my point. Pmo chose to play Helly till he lost, but there is another way to do it and you can play hot hand and give him a night off and go back to him. Schedule can dictate this. Guessing streaks is tough lots goes into deciding who starts at least for me. Pmo is not always the best, and I wouldn't have done it same way as him, but he went with guy till he lost so be it. Knowing how to handle goalies is an art no doubt. You guys keep saying goalies are voodoo, so leave the voodoo to the voodoo lol
PMO’s record indicates he’s right a bit less than 1/2 the time
So he flips a coin I guess
 

kylbaz

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I know I'm the fun killer, but Helle has been rather mediocre the past three games, save % of .871, .885, .895. Letting in a few soft goals which we haven't really seen all year. Coincidentally since Mason got hurt. Bit of stretch thinking but maybe subconsciously he doesn't feel like he's competing for a spot anymore and isn't as focused.
 

PhilJets

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It's most likely not about competition, it's his conditioning. He is well condition if compared to normal person like us.
But for athletes with high end games every 2nd day? His body doesn't seem to be in peak condition - he is still skinny under those pads.
Same as last year he seem to get tired as he plays longer stretches of consecutive games. His recovery period might not be as quick.
Also goalies today should not play more than 60 games. The grind will take its toll.

All goalies goes into a bad stretches, though he needs to snap out of it the soonest.

Last game looking at all the goals, I think only the 3rd legit goal is the soft one.
The first 1 hit his stick I think and bounced off towards LV player. It's unlucky bounced as it skipped 2 JETS player right in front also.

The other goal was a deflection. Deflections are not soft goals, as a goalie you line up to block that shot from the point with that speed and suddenly it changes direction. No human can think fast enough and quick enough to change position at that speed. The only way you save deflection shots is if you are already in that position.

High glove side goals. A lot of goalies get scored on that side. All NHL players are pretty good at scoring, reason they are playing in the best hockey league in the world. Leave them space and they put it their.

Helly probably just need to watch his game videos again to see himself and his positioning.
 

RRenegade

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Connor is currently projected to Win 53, lose 7, OTL 11, the current record for wins by a goalie is 48.
Top 5 single-season win totals by goalies in NHL history - Sportsnet.ca
Even if he doesn't come near the record, he should have earned himself a huge new contract.
I believe he has 3 RFA seasons left. There aren't any real comparables to him for contract purposes.
If he doesn't want another 2 year bridge for 4-5M per, I'm guessing the Jets can sign him for $6M X 7 or 8 years.
 

Gm0ney

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The average cap hit of the top 30 goalies is $5.2M, ranging from a high of $8.5M (Lundqvist) to a low of $3.4M (Reimer).

Hellebuyck is currently 8th in SV% .925. Last year + this year combined: 25th / .912.

Schneider's got the 8th highest goalie cap hit at $6M. Lehner's 25th at $4M.

Can the Jets afford Mason at $4.1M and Hellebucyk at $6M next year? They currently have $53.5M committed for 2018-19 and need to sign or replace current roster players Trouba, Morrissey, Lowry, Armia, Enstrom, Matthias and Hendricks. Say it's an $80M cap, so there's $26.5M in space...
 

mcpw

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perspective:

Goalie A
25yo
last season -- 73GP, 0.923
career -- 178GP, 0.921

Goalie B
25yo
last season -- 67GP, 0.925
career -- 149GP, 0.917

Goalie A is Braden Holtby 2015, signed a 5 year, $6.1M extension that offseason.
Goalie B is Connor Hellebuyck 2018, using pro-rated (for games played and shots faced) numbers for 17-18
 

kylbaz

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I know I'm the fun killer, but Helle has been rather mediocre the past three games, save % of .871, .885, .895. Letting in a few soft goals which we haven't really seen all year. Coincidentally since Mason got hurt. Bit of stretch thinking but maybe subconsciously he doesn't feel like he's competing for a spot anymore and isn't as focused.

.885% in last eight games now.
 

Channelcat

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I hope he plans on spending the christmas break with the guy who trained him in the summer

Yes, he needs a reset.He's taken a major nosedive, already down to a .917! Thats not good at all. I'd be transitioning Mason into the starter role at this point, if for no other reason than to give Helle some time to reset.
 

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