Jets Magic Number?

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by Wolf357, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. Wolf357

    Wolf357 Registered User

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    with just over a month to go in the regular season.. im currious as to when there will be a magic number to make the playoffs? Or is there one now?
    My math skills are way to bad to figure it out myself :)
     
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    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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  3. Moe Mantha

    Moe Mantha Registered User

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  4. JetBlue420

    JetBlue420 Registered User

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    83 points... Gotta think 96 gets us a spot at the very least so 6 7 wins.
     
  5. JetBlue420

    JetBlue420 Registered User

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    99 points = 8 more wins.

    I think 96 is probably enough to get in... Jets likely finish with over 100 points tho.
     
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    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    ^those aren't magic numbers though. The current magic number with the 9th place team CGY is 27. I'll update them all after the games tonight.
     
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  7. Moe Mantha

    Moe Mantha Registered User

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    Sorry! My bad!
     
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    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    Magic number update (tiebreakers not considers)

    COL - 29
    STL - 26
    CGY - 25
    CHI - 18
    EDM - 14
    VAN - 10
    ARI - 4
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2018
  9. Say What

    Say What what say you?

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    WPG vs ANA & COL = Any combination of 14 wins by the Winnipeg Jets or losses by those two teams.

    WPG vs St.L & CGY = Any combination of 13 wins by the Winnipeg Jets or losses by those two teams.

    *This takes into account, a worst case scenario of a 2nd Wild Card position being secured*
     
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    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    March 2 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

    COL - 27
    ANA - 26 * currently 2nd wild card
    STL - 24
    CGY - 21
    CHI - 14
    EDM - 10
    VAN - 7
    ARI - 2
     
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  11. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    March 3 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

    COL - 27
    ANA - 26 * currently 2nd wild card
    STL - 23
    CGY - 21
    CHI - 14
    EDM - 8
    VAN - 7
    ARI - 2
     
  12. The Blue Baron

    The Blue Baron Registered User

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    But what is the Jets magic number?
     
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    What is posted above is the Jets magic number vs those seven teams. Once it is achieved with 7 of them then missing the playoffs is mathematically impossible.

    Right now the number would be 26 to do that.
     
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  14. ERYX

    ERYX 'Pegger in Exile

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    I apologize if this has been answered before but I can't find it anywhere ... How does this magic number work? What is the "magic number"? It seems to get higher as team's rank in standings goes up so its not # of points or wins required to be in the playoffs ... I can't figure it out. Please illuminate me. Thanks.
     
  15. SLAYER

    SLAYER PLAYOFFS?

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    Magic number (sports) - Wikipedia
     
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    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    Definitions (using Jets perspective to illustrate)

    Magic number - combined total of points gained by Jets and points lost by competing team where playoffs are mathematically assured.

    Tragic number - the opposite of Magic number. Combined total of points lost by the Jets and points gained by the competing team that would mathematically eliminate the Jets from playoffs contention.

    It's extremely unlikely tragic number will ever come into play this year. It was something to pay attention to in past seasons.

    The way you calculate a magic number is:

    1. Calculate the maximum number of points the competing team can achieve if they win every remaining game

    2 Calculate the number of points the Jets need to gain to finish 1 point above that maximum. This number is the magic number the Jets need to guarantee to finish higher in the standings.

    In some cases (which is actually most teams right now) the Jets will control the tiebreaker. As long as that doesn't change then the real magic number would end up being one point less.

    Her's an example using St Louis

    GR - 16
    Points - 75
    Max points possible - 107
    Jets points - 85
    Magic number - 23 (+85= 108)
    Magic number with tie breakers - 22

    The Jets currently controls the tie breaker with the Blues (ROW 36-32)

    Every Jets win reduces the number by 2.
    Every Jets OTL or SOL reduce the number by 1.
    Every Jets regulation loss does not change the number
    Every Blues regulation loss reduces the number by 2
    Every Blues OTL or SOL reduces the number by 1
    Ever Blues win does not change the number.

    8 teams make the playoffs and 7 do not. Once the magic number reaches zero for 7 teams the Jets will have mathematically clinched a playoff spot. Once we get closer to the end I'll start factoring in tie breakers to be more realistic
     
  17. ERYX

    ERYX 'Pegger in Exile

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    So one more win (2 points) and it’s impossible for Arizona to catch us even if we lose every remaining game for the season?

    And likewise if we get another 27 points Colorado can’t catch us no matter what they do (like go on a 18 game winning streak to finish the season)?
     
  18. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    But also don't forget the points lost. If Arizona loses 1 game the same point is reached.

    If Colorado lose and the Jets win today the magic number with them would fall to 23.
     
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  19. ERYX

    ERYX 'Pegger in Exile

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  20. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    March 4 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

    COL - 24
    LAK - 23* currently 2nd wild card
    STL - 21
    CGY - 19
    CHI - 10
    EDM - 6
    VAN - 5
    ARI - clinched
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2018
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  21. Rsyl84

    Rsyl84 Registered User

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  22. Whileee

    Whileee Registered User

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    I suppose this doesn't consider that points have to be dropped when teams play each other? In other words, teams can't all run the table with wins if they play each other.
     
  23. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    No I haven't even looked at who's playing who yet. I might consider that stuff once it gets closer to the end.
     
  24. Rsyl84

    Rsyl84 Registered User

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    Assuming every team in the current top 9 (excluding Jets) in the Western conference won every game (impossible I know) how many wins would the Jets need to finish 8th? I'm coming up with 23 pts, or 11.5 wins and a point total of 110


    CentralGPGRPTSPts availableMaxSeedMagic NumberWins Needed
    Nashville6517933412714120.5 NH
    Vegas6517893412323718.5NH
    Minnesota6616813211332713.5
    San Jose6517793411342713.5
    Dallas6517793411352713.5
    Anaheim6616783211062412
    Colorado6517763411072412
    Los Angeles6616773210982311.5
    Winnipeg65178734121
    St. Louis66167532107
    Calgary66167332105NH = Need Help
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2018
  25. Tom ServoMST3K

    Tom ServoMST3K Hockey Professor in Training

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    What's your excuse?
    Pretty sure there is a thread every year on the main board tracking this.
     

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