Jets Magic Number?

[Wolf357]

with just over a month to go in the regular season.. im currious as to when there will be a magic number to make the playoffs? Or is there one now?
My math skills are way to bad to figure it out myself

Click to read more...

 

[Aavco Cup]

I've been tracking them in a the 6 in 5 thread. I don't update them daily though.

6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

 

[Moe Mantha]

I don't know how reliable it is, but I enjoy Sports Club Stats - it claims (if I'm reading it right) that it will update our playoff chances to 100% with 8 more wins.

Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

 

[Gabe Kupari]

83 points... Gotta think 96 gets us a spot at the very least so 6 7 wins.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I don't know how reliable it is, but I enjoy Sports Club Stats - it claims (if I'm reading it right) that it will update our playoff chances to 100% with 8 more wins.

Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

99 points = 8 more wins.

I think 96 is probably enough to get in... Jets likely finish with over 100 points tho.

 

[Aavco Cup]

^those aren't magic numbers though. The current magic number with the 9th place team CGY is 27. I'll update them all after the games tonight.

 

[Moe Mantha]

Sorry! My bad!

 

[Aavco Cup]

Magic number update (tiebreakers not considers)

COL - 29
STL - 26
CGY - 25
CHI - 18
EDM - 14
VAN - 10
ARI - 4

 

[Say What]

WPG vs ANA & COL = Any combination of 14 wins by the Winnipeg Jets or losses by those two teams.

WPG vs St.L & CGY = Any combination of 13 wins by the Winnipeg Jets or losses by those two teams.

*This takes into account, a worst case scenario of a 2nd Wild Card position being secured*

 

[Aavco Cup]

March 2 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

COL - 27
ANA - 26 * currently 2nd wild card
STL - 24
CGY - 21
CHI - 14
EDM - 10
VAN - 7
ARI - 2

 

[Aavco Cup]

March 3 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

COL - 27
ANA - 26 * currently 2nd wild card
STL - 23
CGY - 21
CHI - 14
EDM - 8
VAN - 7
ARI - 2

 

[The Blue Baron]

But what is the Jets magic number?

 

[Aavco Cup]

But what is the Jets magic number?

What is posted above is the Jets magic number vs those seven teams. Once it is achieved with 7 of them then missing the playoffs is mathematically impossible.

Right now the number would be 26 to do that.

 

[ERYX]

I apologize if this has been answered before but I can't find it anywhere ... How does this magic number work? What is the "magic number"? It seems to get higher as team's rank in standings goes up so its not # of points or wins required to be in the playoffs ... I can't figure it out. Please illuminate me. Thanks.

 

[SLAYER]

I apologize if this has been answered before but I can't find it anywhere ... How does this magic number work? What is the "magic number"? It seems to get higher as team's rank in standings goes up so its not # of points or wins required to be in the playoffs ... I can't figure it out. Please illuminate me. Thanks.

Magic number (sports) - Wikipedia

 

[Aavco Cup]

I apologize if this has been answered before but I can't find it anywhere ... How does this magic number work? What is the "magic number"? It seems to get higher as team's rank in standings goes up so its not # of points or wins required to be in the playoffs ... I can't figure it out. Please illuminate me. Thanks.

Definitions (using Jets perspective to illustrate)

Magic number - combined total of points gained by Jets and points lost by competing team where playoffs are mathematically assured.

Tragic number - the opposite of Magic number. Combined total of points lost by the Jets and points gained by the competing team that would mathematically eliminate the Jets from playoffs contention.

It's extremely unlikely tragic number will ever come into play this year. It was something to pay attention to in past seasons.

The way you calculate a magic number is:

1. Calculate the maximum number of points the competing team can achieve if they win every remaining game

2 Calculate the number of points the Jets need to gain to finish 1 point above that maximum. This number is the magic number the Jets need to guarantee to finish higher in the standings.

In some cases (which is actually most teams right now) the Jets will control the tiebreaker. As long as that doesn't change then the real magic number would end up being one point less.

Her's an example using St Louis

GR - 16
Points - 75
Max points possible - 107
Jets points - 85
Magic number - 23 (+85= 108)
Magic number with tie breakers - 22

The Jets currently controls the tie breaker with the Blues (ROW 36-32)

Every Jets win reduces the number by 2.
Every Jets OTL or SOL reduce the number by 1.
Every Jets regulation loss does not change the number
Every Blues regulation loss reduces the number by 2
Every Blues OTL or SOL reduces the number by 1
Ever Blues win does not change the number.

8 teams make the playoffs and 7 do not. Once the magic number reaches zero for 7 teams the Jets will have mathematically clinched a playoff spot. Once we get closer to the end I'll start factoring in tie breakers to be more realistic

 

[ERYX]

So one more win (2 points) and it’s impossible for Arizona to catch us even if we lose every remaining game for the season?

And likewise if we get another 27 points Colorado can’t catch us no matter what they do (like go on a 18 game winning streak to finish the season)?

 

[Aavco Cup]

So one more win (2 points) and it’s impossible for Arizona to catch us even if we lose every remaining game for the season?

And likewise if we get another 27 points Colorado can’t catch us no matter what they do (like go on a 18 game winning streak to finish the season)?

But also don't forget the points lost. If Arizona loses 1 game the same point is reached.

If Colorado lose and the Jets win today the magic number with them would fall to 23.

 

[ERYX]

Thanks @Aavco Cup i understand now!

 

[Aavco Cup]

March 4 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

COL - 24
LAK - 23* currently 2nd wild card
STL - 21
CGY - 19
CHI - 10
EDM - 6
VAN - 5
ARI - clinched

 

[YWGF18]

This site also seems to have a nice grid of magic numbers for the conference
NHL Western Conference Winning Magic Numbers

 

[Whileee]

March 4 - Magic number update (tiebreakers not considered)

COL - 24
ANA - 24 * currently 2nd wild card
STL - 21
CGY - 19
CHI - 10
EDM - 6
VAN - 5
ARI - clinched

I suppose this doesn't consider that points have to be dropped when teams play each other? In other words, teams can't all run the table with wins if they play each other.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I suppose this doesn't consider that points have to be dropped when teams play each other? In other words, teams can't all run the table with wins if they play each other.

No I haven't even looked at who's playing who yet. I might consider that stuff once it gets closer to the end.

 

[YWGF18]

Assuming every team in the current top 9 (excluding Jets) in the Western conference won every game (impossible I know) how many wins would the Jets need to finish 8th? I'm coming up with 23 pts, or 11.5 wins and a point total of 110

Central	GP	GR	PTS	Pts available	Max	Seed	Magic Number	Wins Needed
Nashville	65	17	93	34	127	1	41	20.5 NH
Vegas	65	17	89	34	123	2	37	18.5NH
Minnesota	66	16	81	32	113	3	27	13.5
San Jose	65	17	79	34	113	4	27	13.5
Dallas	65	17	79	34	113	5	27	13.5
Anaheim	66	16	78	32	110	6	24	12
Colorado	65	17	76	34	110	7	24	12
Los Angeles	66	16	77	32	109	8	23	11.5
Winnipeg	65	17	87	34	121
St. Louis	66	16	75	32	107
Calgary	66	16	73	32	105			NH = Need Help

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Pretty sure there is a thread every year on the main board tracking this.