TSN: Jets hoping to re-sign Stastny

[Mortimer Snerd]

Who's someone you "don't" want to move?

Any one of: Trouba, Wheeler, Ehlers, Connor, Scheifele, Laine, Morrissey, Hellebuyck. Or all of Lowry, Armia, Copp. Moving Mason and Kulikov might help a bit but they are pretty much immovable right now.

If we keep all of those players there is no room for Stastny or any other addition who costs more than about 2 mil or who needs longer than 2 years term unless we move an equivalent amount of cap hit out. The cap crunch has arrived.

 

[Maukkis]

We can afford Stastny with Myers gone.

Myers would be traded to avoid having performance bonus overage penalties in 19-20, not to add Stastny. Signing Stastny for similar money than Myers is making would put us back to square one. (note: trading Stastny in the 2019 offseason will not solve this problem)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We can afford Stastny with Myers gone.

No we can't. Not even close. The effect of moving Myers only lasts 1 year. A lot of big raises kick in the year after.
Show me how we can do it without moving big money out.

2018/2019 2019/2020 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $3,200,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,500,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $37,710,832 $50,510,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 Chiarot $1,400,000 $1,600,000 Morrow $850,000 $850,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $28,108,333 $27,908,333 Hellebuyck $5,750,000 $5,750,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,850,000 $6,950,000 23 Players Subtotal $75,469,165 $85,569,165 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $272,500 + Total $79,364,165 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If we also move Perreault we could offer to pay him 4.5 mil but only for one year. That leaves no money to pay injury replacements. In the 2nd year we are already looking at being over the cap. I don't know where Chevy is going to squeeze out 2.5-3 mil in that year but he will have to - unless the cap jumps pretty high.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort why not sign Stastny and trade him next year if we can't solve the CAP issue? That way we has a valuable asset for lets say, Montreal? Seems to me that's a reasonable way to get real value out of the Trade with St. Louis.

Will he sign with no trade protection? Could work if he will but it seems like a pretty risky strategy for a player turning 33 in 6 months. Pretty unlikely he would agree to that.

I don't think it is good practice to sign contracts that you have no intention of honouring. That isn't the same as signing one that doesn't work out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There will have to be moves to make it happen. I read somewhere Perrault may be movable. The other obvious move would be to move Little out.

I know if there was a choice between Statsny or Little, most would choose Stastny.

Recency bias plus small sample.

Over the last 4 years:

	Games	Points	ppg
Stastny	286	188	.6573
Little	268	184	.6866

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

They are virtually the same player except that Little is 2 years younger. Little had an off year but was still pretty good.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We'd need to move Myers +Mason and then likely Perreault next summer to make it work mid to long term. We have to extend Wheeler, Laine and Connor next summer and it's doubtful the cap makes as big of a jump as it will this off season.

Honestly, Mason has to be pretty much immovable. If he could be moved we could do it for 1 year.

If we moved Perreault next year though there still isn't enough room. We would need to move at least another couple of mil.

 

[Neuf]

Loved Paul. Will remain one of my highlights of the Jets, but it's not realistic to keep him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think we covered that. But when the modified NT kicks in, the Jets can. This is the point. I am not saying the Jets are or are not going to move him. Maybe he outplays his contract and they won't. Maybe the Jets do not sign Statsny. This is the thread. I created it. The Jets would like to have him. But part of understanding this, is in a cap world. You can't keep everyone. So The Jets are not moving Scheifele, they are not moving Ehlers. They will sign Laine, they will try to extend Wheeler and keep one or 2 of their RFA and UFA pending D men. So part of looking at the picture is seeing who will likely be moved if the Jets want Statsny. And Chevy as the article states would like that very much.

Fair enough - but the earliest the Jets could move Little would still be at least 1 year too late - even by the most optimistic estimates. It would have to be before the 2nd season from now, not after.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Don't want to really get into a Cap discussion. But this is why I also mentioned trading Perrault. Which was mentioned by Lebrun if I recall should not be a problem. In 2 years Mason and Myers will be coming off the books. I am going by memory. But the point I was making. If you want to be creative, and you are tight to the cap, trading Little if one wants to really have Statsny has to be an option. Now if Statsny is not signing. It won't matter with Little.

On that note, since we started talking about the Cap. My priority would be to sign Morrissey, Trouba, and Laine. These are the core guys that are invaluable going fwd.

This is a cap discussion. How can it not be?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You're guessing , but your guess is not what we have witnessed from Stastny in the past, at least from my perspective. His wife would be living and staying in Canada, which is not a preferred destination for many who have lived their lives in the US. I know that we dance around it at times, but I think it is an issue for Winnipeg and perhaps Edmonton at times.

Also, flying from St. Louis to Denver is not the same as flying from Winnipeg to Denver. You are not flying to another country and having to go through the processes and procedures. It takes longer.

I think that all the discussion of one location over another is entirely speculative, however interesting it may be. But I also think that we can all agree that a good shot at the cup will be a significant consideration for Stastny. So, I think the likely destinations will be teams that are contenders and that can fit his contract within their cap plans.

It is also speculative to talk about him taking discounts. It may be reasonable but it is still speculative. My guess is that he will take a bit of a discount. Some people are talking about him leaving tens of millions on the table. I can't see that happening.

I'll throw in a dark horse candidate. Pens are rumoured to be trying to move Kessel. If he goes they can fit Stastny in.

 

[TS Quint]

Well this is going to take some good moves by Chevy. Hopefully he doesn't go full Bowman and trade all his players and prospects for nothing just to get cap space.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

No we can't. Not even close. The effect of moving Myers only lasts 1 year. A lot of big raises kick in the year after.
Show me how we can do it without moving big money out.

2018/2019 2019/2020 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $3,200,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,500,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $37,710,832 $50,510,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 Chiarot $1,600,000 $1,600,000 Morrow $850,000 $850,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $28,108,333 $28,108,333 Hellebuyck $5,750,000 $5,750,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,850,000 $6,950,000 23 Players Subtotal $75,669,165 $85,569,165 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $272,500 + Total $79,564,165 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If we also move Perreault we could offer to pay him 4.5 mil but only for one year. That leaves no money to pay injury replacements. In the 2nd year we are already looking at being over the cap. I don't know where Chevy is going to squeeze out 2.5-3 mil in that year but he will have to - unless the cap jumps pretty high.

Your salaries for many players are completely out to lunch.

Poolman won't get 1.2
Armia won't get 1.8
Morrissey won't get 5.5
Chiarot makes 1.4 not 1.6
Don't need Morrow
Tanev better not get 925k

 

[Jeti]

Your salaries for many players are completely out to lunch.

Poolman won't get 1.2
Armia won't get 1.8
Morrissey won't get 5.5
Chiarot makes 1.4 not 1.6
Don't need Morrow
Tanev better not get 925k

I would add that I don't think Laine is worth anywhere near 9.5 million. Until he learns to skate and actually engages in puck battles, he's not worth more than 7. I might be alone in this but I'll be really disappointed if they sign him for 8 years at over 9 M per year.

 

[JetsHomer]

Your salaries for many players are completely out to lunch.

Poolman won't get 1.2
Armia won't get 1.8
Morrissey won't get 5.5
Chiarot makes 1.4 not 1.6
Don't need Morrow
Tanev better not get 925k

Copp at 1.5 and Lowry at 3.2m? yuck.

Sure we wont have capspace if you have an obsession with overpaying easily replaceable players. Luckily I don’t think Chevy will do so

 

[DJBiffWPG]

I would add that I don't think Laine is worth anywhere near 9.5 million. Until he learns to skate and actually engages in puck battles, he's not worth more than 7. I might be alone in this but I'll be really disappointed if they sign him for 8 years at over 9 M per year.

Well if you think Laine is getting less than 9 million good luck with that. Under 10 is best case scenario.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Copp at 1.5 and Lowry at 3.2m? yuck.

Sure we wont have capspace if you have an obsession with overpaying easily replaceable players. Luckily I don’t think Chevy will do so

Yeah winning teams don't overpay 4th liners and 3rd pair d men.

 

[Vitto79]

Someone will give him way too much

 

[kylbaz]

Well if you think Laine is getting less than 9 million good luck with that. Under 10 is best case scenario.

I would trade him then. Too many areas need work for that much money

 

[steveat]

I would add that I don't think Laine is worth anywhere near 9.5 million. Until he learns to skate and actually engages in puck battles, he's not worth more than 7. I might be alone in this but I'll be really disappointed if they sign him for 8 years at over 9 M per year.

Heard a bunch of the guys on TSN radio talking contracts and they said Marner was looking @ 10m and that Laine should get more than Marner based on goal production, but the one factor that was missing was that these wingers aren't worth that much....the thing is....these kids don't understand that others are getting paid that much because they are centres....wingers, by default get paid less.

bottom line Marner is worth 7-8 mill and Laine is worth 8-9 mill.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your salaries for many players are completely out to lunch.

Poolman won't get 1.2
Armia won't get 1.8
Morrissey won't get 5.5
Chiarot makes 1.4 not 1.6
Don't need Morrow
Tanev better not get 925k

That shows me nothing. You need to come up with totals and show the room.

Why won't Poolman get 1.2? He is already getting 925k + bonuses. Are you expecting him to take a cut?
Why won't Armia get 1.8? He is coming off his 2nd pro contract and has played very well. Maybe, just maybe he will get a little less - call it 1.5 then. It could just as easily be more.
What, you think Morrissey gets 6?
Correct, Chiarot makes 1.4 now. I gave him 1.6 in the second year. Typo.
What do you mean "Don't need Morrow"? If not him there then someone else, probably someone making more. I've only got 23 players.
Tanev is a regular. He's proven himself. He gets at least that much, probably more.

That is not "completely out to lunch". It is not even partly out to lunch. There might be small changes to some of my numbers. They are just estimates. For every one that goes down a bit, another likely goes up a bit.

Even if I agreed with all of your statements, which I don't (except "Don't need Morrow" which doesn't affect the total) we might save 7-800k. We need to come up with 5-6 million. You need to move someone out who makes at least 5-6 million in the first year and we need to find another 2-3 million in the second year.

We could bridge Morrissey and save 2-2.5 mil for those 2 years but then it gets even worse in the 3rd year.

Feel free to copy my table. Put your own numbers in and come up with totals that include Stastny. Make sure you have 23 players.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

I would trade him then. Too many areas need work for that much money

Lol

 

[DJBiffWPG]

That shows me nothing. You need to come up with totals and show the room.

Why won't Poolman get 1.2? He is already getting 925k + bonuses. Are you expecting him to take a cut?
Why won't Armia get 1.8? He is coming off his 2nd pro contract and has played very well. Maybe, just maybe he will get a little less - call it 1.5 then. It could just as easily be more.
What, you think Morrissey gets 6?
Correct, Chiarot makes 1.4 now. I gave him 1.6 in the second year. Typo.
What do you mean "Don't need Morrow"? If not him there then someone else, probably someone making more. I've only got 23 players.
Tanev is a regular. He's proven himself. He gets at least that much, probably more.

Poolman received max entry level because he was months from being a free agent. He doesn't have the games played, points or resume to demand more money. Tanev signed as a free agent for 925k and has taken a pay cut every year. Last year he made 700k. I'd expect Poolman to sign for around 800 - 850k 2 years.

Armia is a 4th line winger at most and is a classic case of a guy who will probably want more opportunity elsewhere to play farther up the lineup. He should be moved and that's what good teams do they cycle out the bottom 6 in return for assets.

On a long term deal Morrissey would be in the 4.5 - 5 mil max range in my opinion. I think it's very likely he does a bridge deal similar to Trouba.

If you have Chiarot you don't need Morrow because with Kulikov that's three 3rd pair d men. I'd like to move Chiarot out and sign morrow for half the price but for some reason Pomo loves Chiarot.

Tanev is a regular 4th liner who made 700k last year. If he signs for under a mil on a 2 year deal I'm fine with having him back but good teams don't give 4th line players term and dollar especially with all the bodies that could play there.

 

[stl76]

Why is there not more talk about buying out/dumping Kulikov (4.33 M)...what am I missing?

 

[Maukkis]

Poolman received max entry level because he was months from being a free agent. He doesn't have the games played, points or resume to demand more money. Tanev signed as a free agent for 925k and has taken a pay cut every year. Last year he made 700k. I'd expect Poolman to sign for around 800 - 850k 2 years.

Armia is a 4th line winger at most and is a classic case of a guy who will probably want more opportunity elsewhere to play farther up the lineup. He should be moved and that's what good teams do they cycle out the bottom 6 in return for assets.

On a long term deal Morrissey would be in the 4.5 - 5 mil max range in my opinion. I think it's very likely he does a bridge deal similar to Trouba.

If you have Chiarot you don't need Morrow because with Kulikov that's three 3rd pair d men. I'd like to move Chiarot out and sign morrow for half the price but for some reason Pomo loves Chiarot.

Tanev is a regular 4th liner who made 700k last year. If he signs for under a mil on a 2 year deal I'm fine with having him back but good teams don't give 4th line players term and dollar especially with all the bodies that could play there.

Your evaluation is way off, but the course of action you're suggesting is actually a very logical one.

I cannot help but think of a certain Andrew Shaw, who fetched the Blackhawks DeBrincat and Krys, right before receiving a bloated contract. Armia is not important enough to warrant anything near what his comparables have gotten over the years, which is actually very close to 3m AAV and not under 2. We already got great value out of his bridge deal, but now is the time for him to get paid.

(to make the paragraph above a bit clearer: we don't really need Armia enough to give him the raise he deserves based on his play, hence why it would be best to trade him and recoup some assets)

Agree with you on Poolman and Tanev; we need to fill the roster, so if they are down for taking small enough deals, they can return. In Poolman's case, this is more obvious due to very limited playing time, but Tanev actually contributed and might receive a bit more as a result. Morrow belongs to this category as well, and chances are he'll be kept as an insurance in case Niku struggles to adapt to the NHL game.

We. Do. Not. Bridge. Morrissey. Stop. He's getting 5+ on a long-term deal, but that is far from being a problematic contract.


And even still, with some careful penny pinching and making sure that our depth guys aren't getting paid crazy amounts, we still cannot afford Stastny. Enough people have done the math and calculated with different levels of optimism, and the vast majority has ended up with no room for Stastny, unless there is a discount big enough to be considered unrealistic.

 

[Maukkis]

Copp at 1.5 and Lowry at 3.2m? yuck.

Sure we wont have capspace if you have an obsession with overpaying easily replaceable players. Luckily I don’t think Chevy will do so

Any Jets fan who has watched this year's team cannot possibly call Lowry easily replaceable with a straight face.