Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2363343

Some posts to start us off:

I think we're on the same page here. It's not an easy decision. Bryan little is a great player though. He's not slowing down. If anything last year was the best year of his career. He's scored at a 60 pt pace for the last 4 seasons and is a terrific 2 way player. If you can get him signed for anything that starts with a 5, you do it imo.

Probably, but contract values have been moderating somewhat with the flat cap.

The point is that the Jets should probably give extra term to get a lower AAV from Little at this point.

5M is definitely low but 6 years is definitely long. The question is, does it take 24-28M, 28-32M or 32-36M? JMO but I think that 30+-2 range is about right. Does 5yx6M sound more reasonable to you? Especially when a player is looking at what is likely his last contract I think the total $$$ is the most important thing. 6x5 will take him to 37 YO. Is Little likely to be a player who is still competitive past 35 years old? 5M will be a bargain for the first couple of years, about right for a couple and way more than he is worth the last couple. Probably.

Not a bad point then back dive it to make it more portable in the last couple of years. Different than Buff where they went high AAV but low term with movement after 3 years. With BLitts having a lower AAV it makes it more cap friendly in the next 3 years.

They should, which should result in the AAV being comparable to Oshie's.



6 years is not long in this context. Oshie (46M), Ladd (38.5M), Eriksson (36M), Lucic (42M), Okposo (42M), Dubinsky (35.1M) all got over 35M, none of them signed for less than 6 years. 30M is what was given to a 32yo Backes coming off a 45-point season, on a 5-year contract for ages 32-37 worth 6M AAV. 31yo Radulov came in at 31.25M, on a 5 year contract for ages 31-36 worth 6.25M AAV.

Assuming that he plays a "normal" season, if Little hits the free market, he'll definitely receive offers north of 35M. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. The market will be there. Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton will be free agents, and really old ones. Calgary has Backlund expiring, St. Louis has Stastny expiring, Minnesota Koivu. Montreal hasn't found their guy yet. Columbus could use another guy. Nashville is trying Bonino right now. Rangers' situation down the middle isn't clear. I'm sure there's more.

So, if Little doesn't give us a big "hometown" discount, the numbers are pretty clear. A five-year deal under 6.25M AAV just doesn't happen without a discount. On an 8-year deal, the AAV might become as low as 5.25-5.5M. But that also means that he's locked up until the age of 38. That's what the market tells us. We can complain about the facts, we can post "I would sign him 5 years, 5 million" on this board, won't change anything about the market.

5 years, 6.25 - 6.75M AAV
6 years, 5.75 - 6.25M AAV
8 years, 5.25 - 5.75M AAV

These are the interesting contracts. We shouldn't discuss whether they are fair - they are in line with everything we've seen in the past, there are lots of comparables, these offers are market value (or at least close). We can discuss whether it's the right move to offer one of those, and which one.

don't think we can keep both little and wheeler. i'd probably rather keep wheeler since players of his caliber decline slower

Idk about you but I would take the 2 Stanley Cups myself.

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[Bob E]

If Little wants and gets $6 mill/yr, I don't see how Wheeler is resigned.

If Trouba gets $6+ mill/yr, I don't see how Buff is retained in a year or two afterwards.

This veteran core lineup may look quite a bit different in 2-3 years.

 

[Say What]

If Little wants and gets $6 mill/yr, I don't see how Wheeler is resigned.

If Trouba gets $6+ mill/yr, I don't see how Buff is retained in a year or two afterwards.

This veteran core lineup may look quite a bit different in 2-3 years.

IMO, I see the Bryan Little contract coming in at 5 years/$29.0625M or 6 years/$33.75 (maybe even $34M -maximum). I believe that TNSE would've started negotiating at
4 x $6M, expecting that Bryan will opt for term, structure and clauses.

In my opinion, an extra $375K per (on the open market), is insignificant to someone that believes in the direction of the organization; and those that are running it. Time will tell.

 

[mcpw]

IMO, I see the Bryan Little contract coming in at 5 years/$29.0625M or 6 years/$33.75 (maybe even $34M -maximum). I believe that TNSE would've started negotiating at
4 x $6M, expecting that Bryan will opt for term, structure and clauses.

In my opinion, an extra $375K per (on the open market), is insignificant to someone that believes in the direction of the organization; and those that are running it. Time will tell.

That 5 year contract is ridiculously low, that's like Trouba signing for 6 years, $4.5M AAV. That 6 year contract might not be ridiculous, but still very low, that's 4.75M less than Andrew Ladd's contract, for one less year, when Ladd was coming off 46 points in 78 games and clearly playing worse than usual, while Little scored on a >60 pace for the last 4 seasons straight. There's no forward comparable to Little who has signed a contract like that in the last five years, and while the cap hasn't gone up all that much, it still has gone up.

 

[Say What]

That 5 year contract is ridiculously low, that's like Trouba signing for 6 years, $4.5M AAV. That 6 year contract might not be ridiculous, but still pretty low. There's no forward comparable to Little who has signed a contract like that in the last five years, and while the cap hasn't gone up all that much, it still has gone up.

Yes, I totally agree. Let's wait and see.

 

[bumblebeeman]

Maybe a good comparable for Little is Tyler Johnson? Last 4 years they each score 205 points (Little in 26 less games, but his injury concerns should affect his contract value imo). Johnson just signed a 7 year x 5 million a year contract with one rfa season. It could certainly be argued that Little is superior defensively, but he is also older with more injury concerns.

 

[mcpw]

What are those injury concerns with Little? That's a term I'd use for Ladd or Kulikov, who played worse after their last surgery, or Myers, who hasn't played since. Little got injured, healed, then played the rest of the season scoring on a 65-point pace. No reports on lingering stuff like herniae or chronic back issues. After 7 seasons of missing an average of 5 games per season, he appeared in 11 less games than McDavid in the last two seasons.

Johnson's deal came with only one RFA year, but he only had one team to negotiate with, and he averaged 50 P/82 over the last two seasons, while Little averaged 64 P/82. Seven years 5M would be well below market value for Little.

 

[Bob E]

If we can sign Little for 4x$5.5-$5.75, wouldn't that deal be done by now. Even at 5 yrs at that aav, the pens at TNSE would be out, imo.

If they are currently negotiating, Little may want more $, or more term like Ladd got.

Not mid-August yet. I'm not concerned yet.

 

[mcpw]

If we can sign Little for 4x$5.5-$5.75, wouldn't that deal be done by now. Even at 5 yrs at that aav, the pens at TNSE would be out, imo.

It probably would, but why would Little leave $10M or more on the table?

 

[ffh]

Little gets 7 years on the open market next summer from a dozen teams at least. We need to do a ladd type of contract with him. And he is worth it. 7x5.5 is what i see it taking to sign him. Dont see him slowing down at all till maybe the last year. Well worth it.

 

[Constable]

unpopular opinion time: if we do not make substantial progress into the playoffs (3rd round/SCF) within 2 years, they should look at moving byfuglien/wheeler/little for more cost effective options/fringe prospects.

come 2019 assuming every player we re-sign comes in at their expected value or a bit below; we will have over 50% of the salary cap locked up in 7 players. that does not sound bad at all, but only 2 of those players are defenseman, and one of them will be an old, old, dustin byfuglien, who will likely only be a 2nd pair guy at that point; which means that the jets will need to fill 4 defensive slots, with 2 of them being 2nd pair and up guys- which alone costs another 10 mil+.

what i am saying is, you need to capitalize on those 3 while they are still relatively young. little could fetch a young center prospect like kunin or beauviller or buchnevich or fabbri, someone younger who could conceivably reach little's peak performance at a younger age who we could sign long term for cheaper; wheeler alone could get us a mountain, and byfuglien we could flip to a team for picks+a RHD.

we are entering the years now where there is no reason for us to not be winning playoff series. anaheim is cap crunching and will crumble soon. LA hasn't been a good team since 2014. chicago is falling, and the only real large threats i see are st louis and nashville. i understand that we might not make it far into the playoffs, but the only way to extend our window is to keep our guys young; not bank on veterans who are going to be 33/34/35.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

unpopular opinion time: if we do not make substantial progress into the playoffs (3rd round/SCF) within 2 years, they should look at moving byfuglien/wheeler/little for more cost effective options/fringe prospects.

come 2019 assuming every player we re-sign comes in at their expected value or a bit below; we will have over 50% of the salary cap locked up in 7 players. that does not sound bad at all, but only 2 of those players are defenseman, and one of them will be an old, old, dustin byfuglien, who will likely only be a 2nd pair guy at that point; which means that the jets will need to fill 4 defensive slots, with 2 of them being 2nd pair and up guys- which alone costs another 10 mil+.

what i am saying is, you need to capitalize on those 3 while they are still relatively young. little could fetch a young center prospect like kunin or beauviller or buchnevich or fabbri, someone younger who could conceivably reach little's peak performance at a younger age who we could sign long term for cheaper; wheeler alone could get us a mountain, and byfuglien we could flip to a team for picks+a RHD.

we are entering the years now where there is no reason for us to not be winning playoff series. anaheim is cap crunching and will crumble soon. LA hasn't been a good team since 2014. chicago is falling, and the only real large threats i see are st louis and nashville. i understand that we might not make it far into the playoffs, but the only way to extend our window is to keep our guys young; not bank on veterans who are going to be 33/34/35.

I like this plan, would have moved Buff last year. I think if we miss the playoffs this year I would deal Wheeler.


I don't see Chicago and Anaheim crumbling yet, but in two years they have enormous struggles. You can't ignore how Dallas has improved as well.

 

[KingBogo]

It probably would, but why would Little leave $10M or more on the table?

If it is going to cost $10 M more than a 5 year $5.5-5.75 AAV a deal isn't likely to get done with Little. The Jets need to keep Little at a number starting with 5 otherwise they will need to choose between him and Wheeler.

 

[ffh]

If it is going to cost $10 M more than a 5 year $5.5-5.75 AAV a deal isn't likely to get done with Little. The Jets need to keep Little at a number starting with 5 otherwise they will need to choose between him and Wheeler.

Little can play to 36 easy. And will get a contract for 7 years even easier. Doubt he is offered or would ever sign a 5 year contract. Something like 6 or 7 x 5.5 . Top 2 centres at under 12 million works just fine.

 

[mcpw]

If it is going to cost $10 M more than a 5 year $5.5-5.75 AAV a deal isn't likely to get done with Little. The Jets need to keep Little at a number starting with 5 otherwise they will need to choose between him and Wheeler.

Oshie signed 8 x 5.75. That's a number starting with 5. Deal or no deal?

 

[KingBogo]

Oshie signed 8 x 5.75. That's a number starting with 5. Deal or no deal?

Deal at 8 X $5.5 AAV. I'd do term with Little over AAV. Only way to keep him and Wheeler on the roster as we start having to pay the big contracts to the younger core.

 

[mcpw]

Deal at 8 X $5.5 AAV. I'd do term with Little over AAV. Only way to keep him and Wheeler on the roster as we start having to pay the big contracts to the younger core.

That's my line of thinking as well (at the moment, could always change, especially once the season starts). One thing to keep in mind is that it might not be necessary to choose between Little and Wheeler in case Trouba won't sign a long-term deal -- the days of the holdouts are surely gone with arbitration rights in place, but there's a chance that Trouba's camp informed Chevy that he won't sign any contract beyond 2020, when Trouba is first eligible for unrestricted FA. In that case, no matter whether he's traded this or next or the 2019 offseason, or any trade deadline, or not at all, we don't have to attach a big cap number to his name.

 

[KingBogo]

That's my line of thinking as well (at the moment, could always change, especially once the season starts). One thing to keep in mind is that it might not be necessary to choose between Little and Wheeler in case Trouba won't sign a long-term deal -- the days of the holdouts are surely gone with arbitration rights in place, but there's a chance that Trouba's camp informed Chevy that he won't sign any contract beyond 2020, when Trouba is first eligible for unrestricted FA. In that case, no matter whether he's traded this or next or the 2019 offseason, or any trade deadline, or not at all, we don't have to attach a big cap number to his name.

True. But keeping your payroll as down as much as possible adds flexibility on what you can take back if you need to move Trouba. Chevy will need to extract as much value as possible if it comes to that.

 

[Guffman]

unpopular opinion time: if we do not make substantial progress into the playoffs (3rd round/SCF) within 2 years, they should look at moving byfuglien/wheeler/little for more cost effective options/fringe prospects.

come 2019 assuming every player we re-sign comes in at their expected value or a bit below; we will have over 50% of the salary cap locked up in 7 players. that does not sound bad at all, but only 2 of those players are defenseman, and one of them will be an old, old, dustin byfuglien, who will likely only be a 2nd pair guy at that point; which means that the jets will need to fill 4 defensive slots, with 2 of them being 2nd pair and up guys- which alone costs another 10 mil+.

what i am saying is, you need to capitalize on those 3 while they are still relatively young. little could fetch a young center prospect like kunin or beauviller or buchnevich or fabbri, someone younger who could conceivably reach little's peak performance at a younger age who we could sign long term for cheaper; wheeler alone could get us a mountain, and byfuglien we could flip to a team for picks+a RHD.

we are entering the years now where there is no reason for us to not be winning playoff series. anaheim is cap crunching and will crumble soon. LA hasn't been a good team since 2014. chicago is falling, and the only real large threats i see are st louis and nashville. i understand that we might not make it far into the playoffs, but the only way to extend our window is to keep our guys young; not bank on veterans who are going to be 33/34/35.

I wouldn't call that an unpopular opinion. I agree with that.

 

[HannuJ]

IMO, I see the Bryan Little contract coming in at 5 years/$29.0625M or 6 years/$33.75 (maybe even $34M -maximum). I believe that TNSE would've started negotiating at
4 x $6M, expecting that Bryan will opt for term, structure and clauses.

In my opinion, an extra $375K per (on the open market), is insignificant to someone that believes in the direction of the organization; and those that are running it. Time will tell.

Simple logic.
Overpay half of your players by $500k each and that's a $5 mil/year player you have to let walk

 

[bumblebeeman]

What are those injury concerns with Little? That's a term I'd use for Ladd or Kulikov, who played worse after their last surgery, or Myers, who hasn't played since. Little got injured, healed, then played the rest of the season scoring on a 65-point pace. No reports on lingering stuff like herniae or chronic back issues. After 7 seasons of missing an average of 5 games per season, he appeared in 11 less games than McDavid in the last two seasons.

Johnson's deal came with only one RFA year, but he only had one team to negotiate with, and he averaged 50 P/82 over the last two seasons, while Little averaged 64 P/82. Seven years 5M would be well below market value for Little.

So since Little and Johnson have the same number of points the last 4 years, but Little has a much higher p/82 is because he was hurt more. The fact the he has a higher p/82 shouldn't make him more valuable because his overall impact (measured in points) is the same. I agree tho he doesn't have any chronic injuries, but he is a small player so might be at risk, and hasn't hit 60 games the past two years.

Anyways I think he'll give a bit of a hometown discount and sign somewhere around 5-6 million a year for 6 years.

 

[Gm0ney]

Simple logic.
Overpay half of your players by $500k each and that's a $5 mil/year player you have to let walk

Kulikov is overpaid by about $2M by himself.

 

[10Ducky10]

Rather overpay than do nothing at that spot.
We were complaining for Chevy to do somehting and we complain when he does it.
Let's not forget he is only 26 years old and probably wanted a deal for at least 5 years.

 

[Jetsetter]

Rather overpay than do nothing at that spot.
We were complaining for Chevy to do somehting and we complain when he does it.
Let's not forget he is only 26 years old and probably wanted a deal for at least 5 years.

Ducky you're right on!!

 

[mcpw]

The fact the he has a higher p/82 shouldn't make him more valuable because his overall impact (measured in points) is the same.

It does make him more valuable, though. Byfuglien scored more points than McDavid in 15-16 -- a mildly interesting, but pretty useless factoid.
He's also a UFA. If a team seriously brings up his "injury history", he can always move on and talk to another team. RFA contracts are negotiated, UFA contracts are offered.