Speculation: Jets FA/Trade goalie options

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, there's a reasonable chance we'd be buying low on Elliot. He has had some very good seasons in the past, but is coming off a tough one.

I would really rather not cheap out on this one. I think Elliott is more of a gamble than I would like. But truth is that any of the available options are gambles.

It wouldn't surprise me too much if we signed Elliott and waived Hutch that Hutch would go someplace else and outplay Elliott. Not predicting that of course but it wouldn't surprise.

According to the numbers supplied above by Gm0ney, (thanks BTW) Elliott was not bad 5v5. Maybe if we can just cut down on the penalties we can get decent goaltending. I think cutting down on penalties is easier to achieve than a good PK but maybe that is wishful thinking too.

I don't care how it is achieved, I just want the same kind of goaltending the other kids have. Is that too much to ask?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That or Elliot isn't interested in staying there.

It really comes down to what the Jets are looking for this summer. If it's a proven starter that can log a lot of games than its not Elliot they want. If it's a potential young starter to compete with Helle than Elliot doesn't fit either. If however they want to bring in a proven veteran mentor that can work well and contribute positively in a platoon then you probably can't do much better than Elliot.

I don't know what the best course of action is myself but imo the Jets may lean the mentor way.

Ditto the bold.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would be willing to give him longer at that value

He's 32. I wouldn't give him any longer. I'd rather give him a little more if necessary but not longer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The more I look into this the more it appears that you are either rolling the dice on a youngish backup or getting a older veteran goalie. The younger option is definitely the more exciting as people have pointed out great success stories like Talbot, Jones etc. We also need to be mindful that it's also the more risky option as the failings of Lack and Scrivens can attest to.

Unless your getting Bishop (And even he hasn't been noticeably better than the following counterparts the last four years) your getting a veteran type acquisition. While this can be construed as a status quo type move it really is likely the safest bet to make if your looking at getting league average goaltending. There isn't a lot of future upside (Jets have that in Helle and Comrie) but a quick look at the last 4 years of each of Mason, Elliot, MAF, Halak show a strong likelihood on greater than .915 goaltending (All have fairly compatible stats across that time period). Elliot would likely be the most receptive of potentially a platoon role if Helle outplays him.

Bernier has a higher career sv%, is coming off a much better year and is still young enough to be a long term solution (3.5 years younger than Elliott). He would not come as cheaply.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Could be an optic based decision based on how the playoffs went. Perhaps they over think it a bit (Believe better is out there and can be had) and not brig him back.

Most of the speculation I've seen, FWIW has had Flames going after Bishop.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My first choice is Antti Raanta if the cost isn't stupid.

I am fine with Elliott if we can get him for the right price and term. I echo what most of the others have said and believe he can be part of the solution.

Raanta is intriguing. My first choice I think is Bernier. He was only bad that one season in TO. He will cost more than Elliott but not in the the Bishop/MAF range. He could be a mid/long term solution instead of a stopgap. If Helle develops into a starter we would have a good problem instead of a bad one.

Raanta also has that potential to be a long term solution but is less proven.

Elliott has Chevy written all over him because he is the compromise solution. Don't spend much. Don't commit much. Hope it works out.

I wouldn't be too unhappy if we got Elliott. He is probably an improvement. Probably. But I would be disappointed. We wait 6 years to address this issue and then get a halfhearted effort? ****!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's not how SV% works.

True but sample size really matters with sv%.

It may be more indicative if we add all of his play-off performances together but is still probably too small a sample to be taken as gospel. Better yet just add his play-off performances into the rest of his body of work.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

That's not how SV% works.

It is. The type of shots a goalie face matter.

True but sample size really matters with sv%.

It may be more indicative if we add all of his play-off performances together but is still probably too small a sample to be taken as gospel. Better yet just add his play-off performances into the rest of his body of work.

It's been fairly well proven (from a scientific standpoint anyway) that Sv% after 3000 shots is pretty indicative of what type of goaltender you've got on your hands.

 

[JetsFan815]

With Rinne playing so good maybe Saros asks for an opportunity somewhere else. I'd love to have him

Yes please! If Saros is even a remote possibility, Chevy should move heaven and earth to acquire. I am talking Roslovic+. He could be a solution to our goaltending problems for a decade

 

[gbill2004*]

It's been fairly well proven (from a scientific standpoint anyway) that Sv% after 3000 shots is pretty indicative of what type of goaltender you've got on your hands.

Has your scientific analysis factored in different defensive systems and its impact on save%?

 

[gbill2004*]

Yes please! If Saros is even a remote possibility, Chevy should move heaven and earth to acquire. I am talking Roslovic+. He could be a solution to our goaltending problems for a decade

I'd think they will try to sell high on Rinne first.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Has your scientific analysis factored in different defensive systems and its impact on save%?

Mine hasn't, since I haven't done this. The ones more informed on this subject than me have though. It's not my research. Google is your friend.

 

[gbill2004*]

Mine hasn't, since I haven't done this. The ones more informed on this subject than me have though. It's not my research. Google is your friend.

Didn't think so. Thanks.

 

[Weezeric]

Didn't think so. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure he just said yes....

 

[gbill2004*]

I'm pretty sure he just said yes....

How about instead of a snarky "google is your friend" actually posting a reference to backup your claim? I've had posts deleted in the past for doing that.

 

[surixon]

Bernier has a higher career sv%, is coming off a much better year and is still young enough to be a long term solution (3.5 years younger than Elliott). He would not come as cheaply.

I'd be ok with Bernier but I'd worry if the pressure of being a starter in a Canadian market would get to him. He pretty much melted down in Toronto. I'm not sure he's a legit starter or just a real good backup. With regards to Elliot his recent history as a startwr is better. Also if we are to hold his last season against him then we should also hold them against Bishop, MAF, Mason and Halak against them as well. There really isn't a can't miss option on the table. Most are aging, many have had a strong of excellent years with a down year here and there.

 

[gbill2004*]

I'd be ok with Bernier but I'd worry if the pressure of being a starter in a Canadian market would get to him. He pretty much melted down in Toronto. I'm not sure he's a legit starter or just a real good backup. With regards to Elliot his recent history as a startwr is better. Also if we are to hold his last season against him then we should also hold them against Bishop, MAF, Mason and Halak against them as well. There really isn't a can't miss option on the table. Most are aging, many have had a strong of excellent years with a down year here and there.

Bernier really interest me too but I think you might be right. Just a really good backup.

 

[surixon]

How about instead of a snarky "google is your friend" actually posting a reference to backup your claim? I've had posts deleted in the past for doing that.

Here you go:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...nders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

Short answer good coaches with good defensive schemes have very little impact on save percentage. I.e Elliot likely goes from a .921 on the Blues to a .918 (Still above average) on the Jets on a large enough sample size and Helle goes to .909 on the Blues.

 

[Flair Hay]

Bernier would be a sick pickup for us. If he performs, of course... No one is going to make a huge push to get him I don't think. Had one meltdown year in TO when they started the rebuild and gave up midseason. Did the same thing to Reimer at the time, no?

No way I'll ever dismiss team play having an effect on save percentage. Some goalies have it much worse than others. Different goalies have different strengths and weaknesses and gel with different teams better at different times. And they run hot and cold on top of that year to year. Some of it means something and some of it doesn't. Only thing I really know is you know when you have a great one.

But...I can get on board with a goalie's career percentage being indicative enough of how good he is. Bernier and Elliot are about even. Halak could be better. Or worse? Any one would be a decent gamble. I'm worried none will be a saviour behind our young squad that seems to let off the gas too often. And has a typically bad PK.

 

[thegr8one66]

Marc Andre Fleury would be an absolute horrible choice. Lol. I've been a Pens fan since 2005. Fleury is mentally weak and all of those Fleury-lovers will see why we don't want him after this series against WSH. He's a regular season goalie who chokes when it counts.

I'd rather go after an elite goalie that we know what we're getting, then to acquire some short term mentor to help us with a goaltender that "could be" elite.

Look at EDM & TOR. Worse than us last season and we're watching them on tv in the playoffs.

[mod]

 

[gbill2004*]

Here you go:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...nders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

Short answer good coaches with good defensive schemes have very little impact on save percentage. I.e Elliot likely goes from a .921 on the Blues to a .918 (Still above average) on the Jets on a large enough sample size and Helle goes to .909 on the Blues.

Thank you. So it does have an impact, but not as big as I expected.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Thank you. So it does have an impact, but not as big as I expected.

surixon is your friend

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Bernier has a higher career sv%, is coming off a much better year and is still young enough to be a long term solution (3.5 years younger than Elliott). He would not come as cheaply.

Bernier was better than Elliot last year, but worse the two previous seasons. Then they were back and forth before that. True that Bernier's career sv% is slightly better. But I think if you summed up more recent seasons (say 3 or 5 year averages), Elliot comes out on top.

By the numbers, Bernier doesn't strike me as any better than Elliot.

 

[surixon]

Bernier was better than Elliot last year, but worse the two previous seasons. Then they were back and forth before that. True that Bernier's career sv% is slightly better. But I think if you summed up more recent seasons (say 3 or 5 year averages), Elliot comes out on top.

By the numbers, Bernier doesn't strike me as any better than Elliot.

The last 4 seasons Bernier posted a respectable .915 whereas Elliot posted a .919. Bishop FYI posted a .920 over that period.

Getting Elliot would be a good buy low and more than likely be surprised with the results type pickup. That is if you feel he isn't going to start regressing quickly which he might die to being 32.

 

[Flair Hay]

Question: Is Frederick Andersen a better goalie than Jonathan Bernier?