Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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Also enjoyed Briseboise comment on the trade:
Essentially says picks are worthless to us beyond what they can get us in a trade.
I suspect they have tabulated the exact probabilities of those picks turning into exact tiers of players, and... I did this over a decade ago but haven't revisited it lately... it really puts the value of picks into perspective. Because everybody loves to cherry pick the times you get a steal. But it's actually soooo rare. The numbers say the Preds will need a fair bit of luck to get even 1 player as good as Jeannot out of that whole heap of draft picks. If they do, great, but if they do... then they beat the odds.
So Brisebois' take is pure moneyball truth for his team where they are.
At the same time, I am a big proponent of the approach of stockpiling as many picks as you can and throwing as many darts as you can, like folks attribute to Carolina recently, so taking all those picks is still a good move for our organization where we are too, even while understanding just what the odds are of any of those individual picks providing us an NHL player.