Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by exHornet, Apr 27, 2018.
yeah I fully expect it to be in the 6-7 mil range.
Jake has more playoff points than
PLAYERPTSBryan Rust, RW3Riley Sheahan, C3Carl Hagelin, LW3Derick Brassard, C3Dominik Simon, C3Olli Maatta, D2Conor Sheary, LW2Zach Aston-Reese, C1Chad Ruhwedel, D0Carter Rowney, RW0Jamie Oleksiak, D0Tom Kuhnhackl, RW0Combined!
Says a lot about both ends of that comparison
I think you float the idea of a 6 year, $5.5M/yr deal and hope like Hell he takes it. The cap will go up another few million, Sheary and Hunwick are easy cap space if/when we prune them off the roster, and Jake-Sid needs to be written in stone for the next foreseeable future.
not gonna lie, Jake would be dumb to sign for under 6 I think.
I think he should sign for one jakezillion dollars... or in other words the going rate for a star Jake
I remember the Sheary signing and I posted that was great for Sheary, but did not think it was so great for the Pens. Unfortunately, especially in the NHL with it's disregard for safety, smaller players are vulnerable. Minor injuries can significantly reduce their effectiveness, more so than heavier players that are also less likely to get them.
Jake has played for just a season and a half, plus 6 (admittedly excellent) playoff series.
I would not go 5 million, never mind 6, for any length at this point.
Guentzel's contract is probably going to be similar to Palmieri's contract, which was 5 years at $4.65 million. He signed that contract after getting 30 goals and 57 points in 82 games in 2015-2016, when he was 25 years old. What may hurt Guentzel even more is that he has more RFA years left than Palmieri had left when he signed his deal, too.
I can't see him breaking $5 million unless the Penguins wait and he explodes next season.
Edit: Why did I type Pirates instead of Penguins
You might not have a choice if he hits arbitration.
Empoleon uses the Palmieri contract as a comparable - its not a bad one, but the cap's (probably) gone up 5m since that was signed, and will probably be higher again for the season Guentzel's new contract kicks in. Palmieri's contract would in terms of cap percentage would be nearly 5m next season already.
If he doesn't sign a deal this summer and goes another season, then a 50-60 point estimate is roughly sober. That puts him roughly in the neighbourhood (little less, little more) of Galchenyuk, Drouin and Huberdeau prior to signing a contract - and their contracts are 4.9-5.9m. Put Jake at the low end of that, add a little extra for the cap increase and again, we're pretty close to 5m, give or take...
As much as I hope Jake signs a deal in that range, his playoff performance truly distinguishes him, and it's not like the NHL awards where you just ignore what happens after the regular season (uh, other than the Conn Smythe).
There's a case for the guy being the best playoff performer in the league over the last 2 years. I don't think that will have a negligible effect on his bargaining power.
Then again, JR's shown he's capable of magic and Guentzel may put a premium on winning and being in the fortunate position of playing on Sid's wing.
I'm going to combine Guentzel's regular season and playoff stats, which essentially combine into 2 regular seasons. That puts him at 61 goals and 123 points in 159 games, which turns into 31 goals and 63 points per 82 games. Even just looking at this year, he had 32 goals and 69 points in 94 games, which turns into a pace of 28 goals and 60 points per 82 games. So I think it's fair to compare him to 30-30 players, which includes guys like Palmieri. The best comparables I can find for Guentzel are:
Wennberg: 6 years at $4.9 million, after getting 13 goals and 59 points in 80 games at age 22
Nyquist: 4 years at $4.75 million, after getting 27 goals and 54 points in 82 games at age 25
Trocheck: 6 years at $4.75 million, after getting 25 goals and 53 points in 82 games at age 23
I think you're looking at a Trocheck type of contract for Guentzel, I think that's a really good comparable for him. I think the players who get a lot more than that (such as Huberdeau) were either super high draft picks or they had a lot more NHL experience than Guentzel. Huberdeau, for example, had 5 years of NHL experience when he got his $5.9 million AAV extension and also was a #3 pick overall back in the day. He also won the Calder in his rookie year.
I think the draft pick factor is a big factor here, because you pretty commonly see higher draft picks getting a lot of money or shorter term on their first deals.
I think you have to put playoff success into this context rather than just raw numbers.
Also, a cap increase and term.
I think the Pens can.bridge him at that amount, but long term he is pushing 6.
Trocheck was 2 years ago and Nyquist was 3 years ago. As with Palmieri, express their contract as a percentage of the cap and you're getting pretty close to 5m if not over. And I think that yeah, these are better comparables than Huberdeau - but they still point at Guentzel getting 5m.
That would no longer be at this point though. He would have solidified some of the expectation.
There is absolutely no immediate need to give him 5 million for any length of contract. The risks outweigh the potential for it to be higher later. He is a small player that is vulnerable to drop off after a few minor injuries build up.
Agree.....smarter to give him a bridge deal, even at the risk of paying him more on his next contract.....
Dude just had back 2 back crazy playoffs. I think 5.5mm is the floor for a long term deal and more likely 6-6.5mm. Can’t seem him getting 7mm like pixies thinks since he hasn’t yet put up a significant full season. If he wants to wait and explodes next year, then 7mm is possible but for both parties, signing this summer makes the most sense.
For the team yes, but if Jake prefers a long term at 5.5-6, I sign the moment it’s available.
I don’t know that he necessarily would...kinda like Kucherov who took a 3-yr deal...maybe he’s betting he can get a bigger pay day after showing he can consistently put up 50-60 points and be a factor in the POs....
5.5 - 6 would be good anything over that Jake should prove to the league that he can be lights out without Sid, we really really forget how good Sid and Geno are,
Hard to know but to me Jake isn’t in the same class as Kucherov. He certainly can make over 7mm after the bridge deal, but he could also struggle through injuries and inconsistency that keeps his next number down. All depends what he wants to do.
I don’t think the Pens will make him an offer this summer, assuming they make one this summer, that exceeds what Horny just signed for....Horny’s been a very consistent player at 50 points a year and has earned that money....even if Jake gave them more term, I don’t see them exceeding that...if he wants potentially more later, he should sign a bridge that covers his RFA years so that he can be a FA at 27 and bet on himself.....I think that also would benefit the team since who knows where Sid, G, Murray, Schultz will be after three years...the latter two might regress and be coming off the books for all we know and there’ll be even more money for Jake....
Much as I'm a fan of Trochek, Jake's a more accomplished player than him at this point.
Throw out a 5x5 extension this summer and see what happens. He’s worth it.
If you're talking about at the time Trocheck signed his last contract, that's probably true.
Trocheck now? Trocheck now is a near-PPG player who eats big minutes, gets nearly 2 minutes/game on the PK, plays great defense, is physical, and is a plus faceoff guy. He is the complete package and would be a #1 center on a fairly substantial number of teams. There's a lot of similarities between their games, but it isn't an insult to Jake to say that Trocheck right now is a more polished and complete player. We should feel lucky about having the player we have, but also be honest about where his development is at.
I think Guentzel has the ability to develop into a bigger regular season scorer than he is now, and he's already adding a great two-way game, but he's not quite at the level of 2018 Trocheck. He is almost exactly 2015 Trocheck though, or even slightly better. So 2015 Trocheck's contract with a little bump to account for the higher cap seems fine. 6 x 5 or 6 x 5.25 seems about right, and if we jettison Sheary that basically takes care of most of the raise. More than that would be overpaying for being a clutch playoff guy; you pay it if you have to, but you don't go looking to pay it.
Can we pay him in Schrute bucks?
Still too early to tell what he'll come in at.
I think i'd take a good run at him at 5-something to 5.5'ish as soon as you can negotiate his next deal.
I think him and his agent jump at that cuz there'd be a full year to potentially decline in output which could hurt him.