Jake Allen

Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
9,363
3,854
Lisle, IL
It all goes back to why Elliott was dominant here, and had a good number of shutouts. He’s a far more positional goalie, and given our team structure and elite team defense, he looked amazing. Elliott even stole some games for us in the playoffs despite not being that good of a goalie on other teams.

If Allen can be come more positionally sound, then we’ve got an elite goaltender on or hands. On the bright side, you can’t teach athleticism, but you can teach positioning. It’s the next step for him, and if he can take it, he can start getting some shutouts and steal games for us when it matters. Until then, he will be consistently inconsistent to the tune of some streaky play - on the whole good.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
No, he is absolutely better than the two worst stretches he has had. However, is "better than Really Bad" going to be our standard? "C'mon guys, I know he was bad, but we can't be upset because he wasn't 'really bad'". My standards are a bit higher. I want zero "really bad" starts, and to minimize the number of simply bad starts as well. Maybe that is wishful thinking, but that's where I am. I am not trying to argue against anybody saying he's improved from his worst stretches. He was so bad last year, people were willing to give up picks to move his contract. He is not anywhere near that bad this year. That goes without saying. Still he hasn't improved far enough, or probably more accurately proven it long enough to have full faith in him at this point , imo. you said it yourself, its not ideal. That is all I am arguing.

I think that's absolutely wishful thinking. No goalie is going to live up to that standard. Almost every goalie in the league is going to have a stretch like that every year if they start 60 games. Carey Price was worse to start the year than Allen was through his bad stretch. Go look at some game logs for Rinne, Lundqvist, etc and you'll find 1 or 2 similar stretches last year. Hell, Bobrovsky won the Vezina last season despite a 10 start stretch where his SV% was .880 or lower 7 times.

Not a single goalie in the league who started 50+ games last year had fewer than 5 really bad starts (defined as an .850 or lower). There was exactly 1 goalie with 60+ starts who had fewer than 7 really bad starts (Bobrovsky). Allen is on pace to start 66 games and finish with 5.3 really bad starts. Judging him against league wide trends, this slump should absolutely not be concerning. Now, if he has a couple more of them, then it is an issue. That remains to be seen. But nothing about that stretch of play is anything that doesn't happen to every goalie every year. He is on track to be an average to above average starter who is limiting the peaks and valleys better than he used to. This roster is good enough to win a Cup with the version of Jake Allen we have this season.
 

Celtic Note

Living the dream
Dec 22, 2006
16,838
5,560
Man Im glad you guys do all the investigative work for some of us, makes me sound super smart to my friends :laugh:
Lol.

You can certainly beef up on your hockey IQ around here. If only there were a place like this where we could get IQed up on other things...say taxes and sexual harassment. Oops! Too soon?
 

Majorityof1

Registered User
Mar 6, 2014
8,261
6,796
Central Florida
I think that's absolutely wishful thinking. No goalie is going to live up to that standard. Almost every goalie in the league is going to have a stretch like that every year if they start 60 games. Carey Price was worse to start the year than Allen was through his bad stretch. Go look at some game logs for Rinne, Lundqvist, etc and you'll find 1 or 2 similar stretches last year. Hell, Bobrovsky won the Vezina last season despite a 10 start stretch where his SV% was .880 or lower 7 times.

Not a single goalie in the league who started 50+ games last year had fewer than 5 really bad starts (defined as an .850 or lower). There was exactly 1 goalie with 60+ starts who had fewer than 7 really bad starts (Bobrovsky). Allen is on pace to start 66 games and finish with 5.3 really bad starts. Judging him against league wide trends, this slump should absolutely not be concerning. Now, if he has a couple more of them, then it is an issue. That remains to be seen. But nothing about that stretch of play is anything that doesn't happen to every goalie every year. He is on track to be an average to above average starter who is limiting the peaks and valleys better than he used to. This roster is good enough to win a Cup with the version of Jake Allen we have this season.

Fair points. Granted we at less than halfway through the season and Allen already has 7 starts under .880, and a couple more between .880 and .890. I guess he has been less than good at times, but not truly terrible much. I'd be interested to see the stats for sub .880, .890 or .900 games league wide, as I doubt he'd be below trend. Moot point though, as my standards are obviously too high given the data you provided. As our defense is one of the best in the league, I just would prefer a systems goalie who I think could take better advantage of that. That clearly clouds my expectations. Good points, fair points. I grudgingly concede the round to you.
 

TruBlu

Registered User
Feb 7, 2016
6,784
2,923
Fair points. Granted we at less than halfway through the season and Allen already has 7 starts under .880, and a couple more between .880 and .890. I guess he has been less than good at times, but not truly terrible much. I'd be interested to see the stats for sub .880, .890 or .900 games league wide, as I doubt he'd be below trend. Moot point though, as my standards are obviously too high given the data you provided. As our defense is one of the best in the league, I just would prefer a systems goalie who I think could take better advantage of that. That clearly clouds my expectations. Good points, fair points. I grudgingly concede the round to you.

The problem is that just using numbers alone means nothing without context. One of those sub .900 games you mentioned was the game against Edmonton where we blew them out 8-3. Jake was lights out until the third period when all three goals were scored; Largely in part to the fact that our forwards just started playing pond hockey to run up the score instead of helping on the defensive side. That's not the only case of it either, just the only one that comes to mind. Stats are great when used properly, but can also be misleading. I remember when my netflix subscription went from 8 dollars to 10 dollars. If I just walked up to you and told you Netflix raised my rate by 25% you'd tell me that was crazy. In reality, though, they raised my rate by 2 ******* dollars.
 

Majorityof1

Registered User
Mar 6, 2014
8,261
6,796
Central Florida
The problem is that just using numbers alone means nothing without context. One of those sub .900 games you mentioned was the game against Edmonton where we blew them out 8-3. Jake was lights out until the third period when all three goals were scored; Largely in part to the fact that our forwards just started playing pond hockey to run up the score instead of helping on the defensive side. That's not the only case of it either, just the only one that comes to mind. Stats are great when used properly, but can also be misleading. I remember when my netflix subscription went from 8 dollars to 10 dollars. If I just walked up to you and told you Netflix raised my rate by 25% you'd tell me that was crazy. In reality, though, they raised my rate by 2 ******* dollars.

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Very good point as well. Statistics can intentionally and unintentionally be very misleading. But they are the easiest way to provide a common frame of reference. Eye tests are very subjective. And while stats can be manipulated, they can only be manipulated so much given the raw data stays the same. Stats also tend to normalize over bigger samples as well. For every game like the one you described, there are games where the goalie might be off, but through luck doesn't get scored on. Goalie gets beat but the shooter hits post or misses an open net, defenders block open looks, etc.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
Fair points. Granted we at less than halfway through the season and Allen already has 7 starts under .880, and a couple more between .880 and .890. I guess he has been less than good at times, but not truly terrible much. I'd be interested to see the stats for sub .880, .890 or .900 games league wide, as I doubt he'd be below trend. Moot point though, as my standards are obviously too high given the data you provided. As our defense is one of the best in the league, I just would prefer a systems goalie who I think could take better advantage of that. That clearly clouds my expectations. Good points, fair points. I grudgingly concede the round to you.

I agree completely.

I really like watching Allen play because he plays a fun style to watch. Goaltending has gotten insanely technical and I appreciate the absurd edge work and movement conservation of a guy like Carey Price. But watching him is like watching a clinic to improve my own game. Watching Allen is just fun because he is more unpredictable and exciting. From an entertainment standpoint, I'll watch a game between Quick and Allen over Price and Lundqvist every time.

But while that style is fun to watch, I do think the Blues would be better off with a 'calmer' goalie in net. I was part of the group that would have extended Elliott and dealt Allen a couple summers ago. I'm happy to say that I was wrong with the benefit of hindsight. I firmly believe that Allen is a better goalie than Elliott. His age fits our window much better than Elliott's and the last couple years of his contract are very likely better than anything we would have signed Moose to. However, in a perfect world, I'd prefer a systems goalie of equal ability over Allen. Based on Allen's play over the last 15ish months, I don't think Elliott is that guy and it is very difficult to obtain the perfect fit in net from outside the organization.

To Allen's credit, he is light years better positionally than he was 24 months ago. He is oversliding significantly less and doing a much better job of closing the holes between his body and arms when he is moving. He has gotten better at stopping the first shot and is making significantly fewer mistakes that are clearly the result of lapses in focus. He is inching closer towards a systems guy who can utilize athleticism when things go poorly and if he can take one or two more steps in that direction he will be a top end starter. Even if he doesn't get there, he has hit the point where he is good enough for us to make a playoff run and is better than any realistic external replacement.

Edit: From a long term standpoint, I still think that Husso is likely the Blues starter by the time Allen's contract ends. I've been high on Husso for a while and he has looked fantastic in the (admittedly few) times I've watched him. His style fits the Blues better, but he won't take the job until he proves that his talent/ability is on par with Allen's. If I was putting money on it, I'd wager that the future Blues goalie situation will mirror what the Lightning just went through with Bishop and Vasilevski.
 

Alstdw

Registered User
Jan 6, 2018
1
0
Allen is garbage same head case every year. Let give Hutton the “starting title” see how it goes.
 

thedustman

Registered User
Jun 19, 2013
4,198
1,246
Out of all the tenders to ever play for the blues in front of my eyes, Allen is by far the most fun to watch.
 

Dbrownss

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
31,359
8,734
There isn't a controversy. Allen is still the guy, he just sucks right now. He's shown a high level of play before, he has the talent. He's struggling and unfortunately the skaters aren't doing him any favors either. Perfect shit storm right now
 

MissouriMook

Still just a Mook among men
Sponsor
Jul 4, 2014
7,816
8,147
There isn't a controversy. Allen is still the guy, he just sucks right now. He's shown a high level of play before, he has the talent. He's struggling and unfortunately the skaters aren't doing him any favors either. Perfect **** storm right now
Yes, he has the physical talent and has proven many times in the past that he can be dominant at times. He just doesn't seem to have the mental game to be effective over the long haul.

I've been following this team for almost as long as it has existed. I've seem a lot of goalies come and go and I can count on one hand the number of goalies that had more physical talent (wearing the Blue Note) than Allen. I've seen a lot of goalies come and go with this team and throughout the league. It takes a certain type of mental toughness to be able to stand there facing 100 mph projectiles night after night and still do all of the things you need to do to be successful in that job. Allen doesn't have that. When he is "off" it is almost always between the ears. He gets lazy covering the short side post because he assumes "good enough" positioning, which is never good enough. He drops his glove hand because keeping proper positioning with his glove affects his ability to move his lower half the way he wants. This is more symptomatic of than causation to what I see as his biggest problem.

Jake Allen likes to slide. A lot. I'm not sure what drives this, though. Maybe he just likes to do it. Maybe he wants everyone to remember how athletic he is. Maybe he just really wants to get on the Top 10 saves highlights. Whatever the reason, it makes him a worse goalie. He does things because he can, without recognizing that he shouldn't. He is 27 years old, so he should be mature enough, physically and mentally, to be able to do the job he was trained to do, the way he was trained to do it. I think he lacks the focus and maturity to do the things he should do, and instead does the things he wants to do. I have 3 kids his age and one even younger. They're all like this, too. When making a save (or attempting to make a save) takes you out of reach of the blue paint when the puck is already in close, you've given up your net. No goalie should ever give up his net with the puck in close. Period.

Finally, I think we all need to recognize the fact that he is not getting better. Oddly, I have read before that he typically has a higher than average high danger save percentage than an average goalie but a worse SP on low danger shots than the average goalie. This passes the eye test with me, as he seems like he is always making the hard saves look easy and the easy saves look hard. The $64,000 question is "Can he get better?" Will he get better? I would argue that he can get better, but he won't because he doesn't want to change the way he plays. He may someday become a reliable NHL goalie, but I don't think losing starts to a backup is going to get him to change. I think the only way he does what he needs to do to be the goalie he needs to be is to be forced to move on. Coaching hasn't seemed to be able to get him focused in any sustainable way, so I think the only thing that will get him where he needs to be mentally are those five words an athlete dreads - "Son, you have been traded."
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vincenzo Arelliti

Reality Czech

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
4,893
7,801
I think that's absolutely wishful thinking. No goalie is going to live up to that standard. Almost every goalie in the league is going to have a stretch like that every year if they start 60 games. Carey Price was worse to start the year than Allen was through his bad stretch. Go look at some game logs for Rinne, Lundqvist, etc and you'll find 1 or 2 similar stretches last year. Hell, Bobrovsky won the Vezina last season despite a 10 start stretch where his SV% was .880 or lower 7 times.

Not a single goalie in the league who started 50+ games last year had fewer than 5 really bad starts (defined as an .850 or lower). There was exactly 1 goalie with 60+ starts who had fewer than 7 really bad starts (Bobrovsky). Allen is on pace to start 66 games and finish with 5.3 really bad starts. Judging him against league wide trends, this slump should absolutely not be concerning. Now, if he has a couple more of them, then it is an issue. That remains to be seen. But nothing about that stretch of play is anything that doesn't happen to every goalie every year. He is on track to be an average to above average starter who is limiting the peaks and valleys better than he used to. This roster is good enough to win a Cup with the version of Jake Allen we have this season.

Thanks for pointing out that some fans are just not realistic when it comes to Allen. Sure, we'd all like him to play better and more consistently but expecting him to never have a really bad start from time to time is just unrealistic. Allen will never please this fan base unless he turns into playoff Jonathan Quick 100% of the time, I guess.

And just because he is struggling now, how can some fans be so sure he will never figure it out? I'm sure he's not the first goalie with mental issues to get sorted out during his career.
 

Dbrownss

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
31,359
8,734
Yes, he has the physical talent and has proven many times in the past that he can be dominant at times. He just doesn't seem to have the mental game to be effective over the long haul.

I've been following this team for almost as long as it has existed. I've seem a lot of goalies come and go and I can count on one hand the number of goalies that had more physical talent (wearing the Blue Note) than Allen. I've seen a lot of goalies come and go with this team and throughout the league. It takes a certain type of mental toughness to be able to stand there facing 100 mph projectiles night after night and still do all of the things you need to do to be successful in that job. Allen doesn't have that. When he is "off" it is almost always between the ears. He gets lazy covering the short side post because he assumes "good enough" positioning, which is never good enough. He drops his glove hand because keeping proper positioning with his glove affects his ability to move his lower half the way he wants. This is more symptomatic of than causation to what I see as his biggest problem.

Jake Allen likes to slide. A lot. I'm not sure what drives this, though. Maybe he just likes to do it. Maybe he wants everyone to remember how athletic he is. Maybe he just really wants to get on the Top 10 saves highlights. Whatever the reason, it makes him a worse goalie. He does things because he can, without recognizing that he shouldn't. He is 27 years old, so he should be mature enough, physically and mentally, to be able to do the job he was trained to do, the way he was trained to do it. I think he lacks the focus and maturity to do the things he should do, and instead does the things he wants to do. I have 3 kids his age and one even younger. They're all like this, too. When making a save (or attempting to make a save) takes you out of reach of the blue paint when the puck is already in close, you've given up your net. No goalie should ever give up his net with the puck in close. Period.

Finally, I think we all need to recognize the fact that he is not getting better. Oddly, I have read before that he typically has a higher than average high danger save percentage than an average goalie but a worse SP on low danger shots than the average goalie. This passes the eye test with me, as he seems like he is always making the hard saves look easy and the easy saves look hard. The $64,000 question is "Can he get better?" Will he get better? I would argue that he can get better, but he won't because he doesn't want to change the way he plays. He may someday become a reliable NHL goalie, but I don't think losing starts to a backup is going to get him to change. I think the only way he does what he needs to do to be the goalie he needs to be is to be forced to move on. Coaching hasn't seemed to be able to get him focused in any sustainable way, so I think the only thing that will get him where he needs to be mentally are those five words an athlete dreads - "Son, you have been traded."
So trade Allen? What does that do for Stl? Brodeur doesn't want to be the goalie coach, but he needs to be invovled more. Allen post Corsi was good for the Blues. While Alexander might be friends or whatever with Allen, he may be reintroducing those bad habbits back to Allen. He was too good for too long to not be that guy more consistently
 

MissouriMook

Still just a Mook among men
Sponsor
Jul 4, 2014
7,816
8,147
So trade Allen? What does that do for Stl? Brodeur doesn't want to be the goalie coach, but he needs to be invovled more. Allen post Corsi was good for the Blues. While Alexander might be friends or whatever with Allen, he may be reintroducing those bad habbits back to Allen. He was too good for too long to not be that guy more consistently
At what point does Allen accept the responsibility for reverting to his own bad habits, for his own lack of focus, and his generally weak mental approach. How many coaches do we have to hang this on before it becomes Jake's problem to solve?
 

Dbrownss

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
31,359
8,734
At what point does Allen accept the responsibility for reverting to his own bad habits, for his own lack of focus, and his generally weak mental approach. How many coaches do we have to hang this on before it becomes Jake's problem to solve?
His job is to listen to the coach. I'm not at practice and have zero insight into the situation outside of assumptions. Im just going off of what I saw him do under Brodeur. Technically sound with ability to make those Athletic saves.

My point is he/they have to figure it out with him wearing the Note. Your not going to get a hockey trade for him. Internal options aren't great, so it's Allen or nothing.
 
Apr 30, 2012
21,007
5,358
St. Louis, MO
Allen is 27 years old. He’s a grown ass man. Goalie coaches aren’t around to hold a guy’s hand. Mitch Korn himself can’t fix Allen’s issue, which is between the ears. There’s only so much they can do. They can identify slight technical flaws but it’s up to the goalie to actually fix it. He’s on his third goalie coach and still having the same problem. At what point do we admit this is on Allen?
 
  • Like
Reactions: MissouriMook

Dbrownss

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
31,359
8,734
Allen is 27 years old. He’s a grown ass man. Goalie coaches aren’t around to hold a guy’s hand. Mitch Korn himself can’t fix Allen’s issue, which is between the ears. There’s only so much they can do. They can identify slight technical flaws but it’s up to the goalie to actually fix it. He’s on his third goalie coach and still having the same problem. At what point do we admit this is on Allen?
So why was Brodeur effective with him?
 

Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
9,363
3,854
Lisle, IL
Allen's just helping me out by lowering the odds that the Blues win it all this year. As soon as we come back from break, it will be a good time to place a small bet.
 
Apr 30, 2012
21,007
5,358
St. Louis, MO
So why was Brodeur effective with him?

I don’t have an answer. It could be as simple as Allen just going on a hot streak. Regardless, we can’t even fully judge that streak because it was only the second half of the season. He’s always had the same bad habits and is showing them again this year. The fact that he’s not shown significant improvement should be a big concern for everyone.
 

Dbrownss

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
31,359
8,734
I don’t have an answer. It could be as simple as Allen just going on a hot streak. Regardless, we can’t even fully judge that streak because it was only the second half of the season. He’s always had the same bad habits and is showing them again this year. The fact that he’s not shown significant improvement should be a big concern for everyone.
I'd argue half a season+playoffs is a good sample though. I do agree this is absolutely a concern. I think there's just a few more factors this slump. The team has been bad defensively and there have been some bad bounces that's gone against Allen. Couple that with his bad play and he looks really bad. Im just not on the the only solution is trade him bus.


As stupid as it is......lets see how the team looks after Schwartz comes back.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vincenzo Arelliti

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->