Player Discussion Jack Eichel - Switching from #15 to #9

Status
Not open for further replies.

valet

obviously adhd
Sponsor
Jan 26, 2017
8,975
5,144
buffalo
My assumption is that these extreme branding techniques are a good sign contractually speaking, but who knows. Plenty of time to get a deal done.
 

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
It would be great if some posters understood that Eichel' deal, just like McDavid's and Draisatl's, is based largely on potential and that they will be going forward. They are not based on a player "earning" them with just their play to date as the basis for them.

Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.

He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.

He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.

Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.

I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.
 

AustonsNostrils

Registered User
Apr 5, 2016
7,409
2,533
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.

He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.

He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.

Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.

I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.

He is the most important part of the #1PP, you seem to be implying he's freeloading easy points. The Sabres PP was 11th in the league when Eichel was out until nearly December. When he came back the PP improved 32% to go to #1.

He is absolutely frightening on the PP.
 

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
He is the most important part of the #1PP, you seem to be implying he's freeloading easy points. The Sabres PP was 11th in the league when Eichel was out until nearly December. When he came back the PP improved 32% to go to #1.

He is absolutely frightening on the PP.

He benefits the players around him and they benefit him. I don't think it matters whether you give him 100% credit for the PP or what, the point is that part of his production has hit its ceiling.

He scored 33 ESP, and 24 PPP. The PPP aren't going to improve except as a product of playing a full season. McDavid only got 27 last year. If he's going to be, say, a 90 point forward, it's going to be from improving his even strength points per game by, like, 40%.

That's the kind of paying him for his future production I wouldn't assume.
 

joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,462
39,915
Hamburg,NY
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.

He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.

He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.

Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.

I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.


Wow. The idea that there is any argument to be made for Eichel getting 6mil per on a 8yr deal is just....... :help: Even the argument for 8mil per, with the market reset by McDavid and Draisaitl, doesn't make any sense either. It comes down to where you think Eichel falls between McDavid and Draisaitl. 8mil is not in that range.

Also the idea that Eichel has to basically be McDavid if he gets 10mil or 11mil, etc makes little sense either. A 10mil per deal is 80% of what McDavid got. 11mil is 88% of what McDavid got. He certainly needs to close the gap but he doesn't need to be the same player.
 
Last edited:

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
Wow. The idea that there is any argument to be made for Eichel getting 6mil per on a 8yr deal is just....... :help: Even the argument for 8mil per, with the market reset by McDavid and Draisaitl, doesn't make any sense either. It comes down to where you think Eichel falls between McDavid and Draisaitl. 8mil is not in that range.

They're getting paid for their future production, too. Not that it matters so much, since they both may have just hit their career highs for points.

And I would argue they are overpaid.

If Draisaitl set the market, Eichel is worth $10M, for sure. So is ROR, and Reinhart's over $7M.
 

AustonsNostrils

Registered User
Apr 5, 2016
7,409
2,533
They're getting paid for their future production, too. Not that it matters so much, since they both may have just hit their career highs for points.

And I would argue they are overpaid.

If Draisaitl set the market, Eichel is worth $10M, for sure. So is ROR, and Reinhart's over $7M.

And why I laugh at those who mocked us for giving ROR the money we did, he's been good value and he will be even better value as the team improves.
 

joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,462
39,915
Hamburg,NY
He benefits the players around him and they benefit him. I don't think it matters whether you give him 100% credit for the PP or what, the point is that part of his production has hit its ceiling.

He scored 33 ESP, and 24 PPP. The PPP aren't going to improve except as a product of playing a full season. McDavid only got 27 last year. If he's going to be, say, a 90 point forward, it's going to be from improving his even strength points per game by, like, 40%.

That's the kind of paying him for his future production I wouldn't assume.

Where did you get the idea that if our PP isn't #1 that means Eichel's PP production automatically goes down?
 

joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,462
39,915
Hamburg,NY
They're getting paid for their future production, too. Not that it matters so much, since they both may have just hit their career highs for points.

And I would argue they are overpaid.

Yeah I know, thats why I said that in the post you initially quoted.


If Draisaitl set the market, Eichel is worth $10M, for sure. So is ROR, and Reinhart's over $7M.


Too bad for ROR that he's not up for a new deal at the moment.
 

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
Where did you get the idea that if our PP isn't #1 that means Eichel's PP production automatically goes down?

Eichel's production probabilistically goes down, is that better?

What I really said: His PP points overall are not going up substantially more than you would expect from just playing more games, and his PPP/gm may even go down. I'm not saying he's getting 23 PPP or less guaranteed. I'm saying that if posters are projecting him getting to, say, 90 points, the vast majority of the difference is coming from ES.

Where does his even strength points per game rank in the league?
 

Sabresfansince1980

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Sep 29, 2011
10,833
5,190
from Wheatfield, NY
This is a different issue but I wonder how the rest of the GMs think about Edm "setting the market" with the contracts to McDavid and Draisaitl. Does one team paying too much actually "set the market" if other GMs stay tough and grind out their next contract talks. Does it require another team paying too much to set the trend? I'm pretty sure 25 or so GMs (and their owners) thought Edm did a stupid with those deals, but probably also understand that Edm felt it was necessary to keep McDavid (we all know he didn't want to get drafted there).

I'm sure front offices are well aware of the bad contracts handed out over the last ten years and how they contributed to work stoppages. I imagine they might push back more than in the past when players/agents start trying to keep up with the Jones's (McDavids). Teams shouldn't be handcuffed when one team goes outside the parameters on a contract, and one high contract (maybe McDavid's but certainly Draisaitl's) shouldn't be the comparable that leads the entire salary structure over a cliff.
 

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
Yeah I know, thats why I said that in the post you initially quoted.

I know, so why ignore it when I'm clearly agreeing with your own argument to say we should look forward? Everybody gets paid based on what they're expected to do going forward. My $6M figure is just the result you'd get if you got what you're accusing me of: nonsense analysis where one only pays Eichel based on a career year of 57 points.

My point is, if I were doing THAT kind of nonsense analysis, as you're saying I am, I'dd be getting a much lower figure than what I'd even like to see here.

But yeah, $8M already ****ing factors in that he's going to improve. $9M factors in that he can ask for more than he's worth because he's got the franchise over the barrel. $10M is just paying for a different player.
 

cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
2,451
246
Western NY
Eichel's production probabilistically goes down, is that better?

What I really said: His PP points overall are not going up substantially more than you would expect from just playing more games, and his PPP/gm may even go down. I'm not saying he's getting 23 PPP or less guaranteed. I'm saying that if posters are projecting him getting to, say, 90 points, the vast majority of the difference is coming from ES.

Where does his even strength points per game rank in the league?

Where did the team's ES PPG rank? With their effectiveness on the power play, I think it's logical to assume that they would see significant offensive improvement with a better 5 on 5 system, in which Eichel doesn't spend minutes at a time in his own zone.
 

haseoke39

Registered User
Mar 29, 2011
13,938
2,490
Where did the team's ES PPG rank? With their effectiveness on the power play, I think it's logical to assume that they would see significant offensive improvement with a better 5 on 5 system, in which Eichel doesn't spend minutes at a time in his own zone.

If it's gonna improve his ESP/g by like, 40% over last year, that's the kind of thing I'd like to test out before paying for it.
 

Royal Thunder

Frolunda Mode
Feb 21, 2012
4,406
3,425
If it's gonna improve his ESP/g by like, 40% over last year, that's the kind of thing I'd like to test out before paying for it.

Well if you want to play armchair GM you need to use a little foresight. The team was lost at even strength and we got shelled in 90% of our games. Things we rarely did at ES under Bylsma: We rarely dictated the pace of a game, we rarely had a clean execution of a breakout, we rarely established possession and hemmed teams in, and we rarely scored. The scheme was atrocious and the players had no idea what to do or where to be. It was arguably the worst coached team in the league and a roster that should not have been so inept at even strength.

Housely is an unknown. But if all goes well I don't think anything is out of the realm of possibility for him, including doubling his even strength production. 40% does not seem like a massive jump at all if the team actually plays smart, organized, attacking hockey again. Housely doesn't need to come in here and make miracles, we already have the talent to be good if players are used properly.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,632
34,451
Rochester, NY
https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/dreger-sense-eichel-okay-starting-season-without-extension-place/

“They’re still going back and forth,†said NHL Insider Darren Dreger during a Friday morning conversation on Buffalo’s WGR 550. “I wouldn’t say that it’s a strained negotiation by any sense. Obviously Jack and his representatives feel that based on what the market has proven in this off-season that he’s a key piece and needs to be shown that market value. So there has to be an understanding here that they haven’t quite reached. But I don’t think that we should read into that in a negative fashion either.

“My sense a week or even two weeks ago was that they were still very hopeful that they would get a settlement done here, they would reach an agreement prior to the start of the season. There’s still that possibility, but I’m now getting the sense that – certainly from the player’s perspective – he’s okay starting the season without this contract extension in place. I know that that’s not best case for a lot of guys because who wants to talk about it through training camp and obviously a good part of the regular season. And it’s not just the questions that you face in Buffalo. I mean, you face that in pretty much every city that you visit. Every reported wants to hear the same thing: ‘Is the contract negotiation a distraction?’

“So because of all of those things, I think it would be preferred to get a contract extension done prior to the start of the year. But as I said, I don’t get – from the player’s perspective – that he’s losing any sleep over it at this point. So that just means that it’s still a healthy dialog going back and forth between the club and the player.â€

With Eichel being OK with a deal not being in place to start the season, it sure seems to me that there is a sizable gap between team and player on the money side of the equation.
 

Jame

Registered User
Sep 4, 2002
52,673
9,037
Florida
Projections are based on results to date, so it's a mix of both.

He's "earned" a deal that assumes he can put up 60 points a year, play mediocre in his end, put up half the ES PPG of McDavid and thrive off of being on the #1PP in the league. $6M player.

He projects to be able to keep up his better pace from last year, put up 75 points (improving his ES scoring marginally, and probably not enjoy being on the #1PP two years in a row), improve his play away from the puck enough to be considered our #1C, and take this team to the playoffs if the D dramatically improves. $8M player.

Then, in some poster's minds, he also projects to dramatically improve his even-strength scoring, by like 66%, compete for the Hart, and be the #1C on a team that advances in the playoffs. $10M player, accounting for the long-term nature of the deal and the cap rising.

I think I and everybody else are already building in a safe degree of projection into what we're comfortable paying him. It's just that the $10M+ figure might incorporate projections that just aren't this player.

He benefits the players around him and they benefit him. I don't think it matters whether you give him 100% credit for the PP or what, the point is that part of his production has hit its ceiling.

He scored 33 ESP, and 24 PPP. The PPP aren't going to improve except as a product of playing a full season. McDavid only got 27 last year. If he's going to be, say, a 90 point forward, it's going to be from improving his even strength points per game by, like, 40%.

That's the kind of paying him for his future production I wouldn't assume.

I know, so why ignore it when I'm clearly agreeing with your own argument to say we should look forward? Everybody gets paid based on what they're expected to do going forward. My $6M figure is just the result you'd get if you got what you're accusing me of: nonsense analysis where one only pays Eichel based on a career year of 57 points.

My point is, if I were doing THAT kind of nonsense analysis, as you're saying I am, I'dd be getting a much lower figure than what I'd even like to see here.

But yeah, $8M already ****ing factors in that he's going to improve. $9M factors in that he can ask for more than he's worth because he's got the franchise over the barrel. $10M is just paying for a different player.

Nailed it.
 

SackTastic

Registered User
Mar 25, 2011
7,829
1,915
With Eichel being OK with a deal not being in place to start the season, it sure seems to me that there is a sizable gap between team and player on the money side of the equation.

Or there's enough trust on both sides that they're negotiating in good faith and neither one needs to set an arbitrary deadline to try and create leverage.
 

cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
2,451
246
Western NY
Nailed it.

Nailed what? Nitpicking over a couple million? The scale for franchise players is already $4m wide with an $8m floor. Arguing about $10m being too much because they'd be "paying for different player" is a waste of breath. There's no list of qualifications or expectations that declares a players value- he's worth what the market has determined for his situation. McDavid set the high end, Johansen set the floor, and Eichel benefits from the rising tide.
 

DapperCam

Registered User
Jul 9, 2006
5,833
3,183
I think the Sabres are going to regret not locking him up now. He's going to put up stupid numbers this year and make them pay for it.

They'll be happy to shell out the cash then because he "earned it". Still could be had for less now though.
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
16,619
7,847
In the Panderverse
Haseoke has well-summarized the factors/arguments which should bracket Eichel's deal.

I've advocated 8 x $8M prior to the Draisatl signing and a max of 8 x $8.8M after.

I freely admit my hypothetical pay-back analysis in the prior thread part 3 improperly low-balled the cost of a 2-3 year AAV on a bridge deal.

Will the bridge deal advocates in turn admit there is no value to the Sabres to offering (or settling) at a 3-year $8, 8.8, 10M bridge deal just for the privilege to pay Eichel more when it expires?

Will the "8 x $10M is the floor" advocates admit that just because EDM inked their two contracts so highly, and likely overpaid for Draisaitl at current market rates for players not wearing #97, that BUF must follow suit and pay more than their cap structure might permit for roster balance / Cup contention?

There remains no incentive for either party to sign a bridge deal, unless Jack has already decided he'll bolt for Boston when a UFA and has similarly convinced the Sabres of the same.

If Jack won't sign for 8 years, then start dialing back the AAV. Draisaitl gave up 2 years of UFA; Eichel will only be giving up 1.
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
16,619
7,847
In the Panderverse
Nailed what? Nitpicking over a couple million? The scale for franchise players is already $4m wide with an $8m floor. Arguing about $10m being too much because they'd be "paying for different player" is a waste of breath. There's no list of qualifications or expectations that declares a players value- he's worth what the market has determined for his situation. McDavid set the high end, Johansen set the floor, and Eichel benefits from the rising tide.
$2M savings on a 2018-19 $75M cap with ~half or ~$37M tied up with 7 skaters, with Eichel and Reinhart due, and expecting </= $6M total in goal. Yes, I'd prefer to save the $2M per.

I think the Sabres are going to regret not locking him up now. He's going to put up stupid numbers this year and make them pay for it.

They'll be happy to shell out the cash then because he "earned it". Still could be had for less now though.
"Now" lasts for at least another month.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->