Player Discussion: J.T. Miller

[Sky04]

"The worst possible thing is we throw a top-6 roster player away for nothing who we could easily re-sign and have contributing for us his entire prime and the Russian guy stays in Russia"

 

[The Macho King]

What's Gusev's reasonable upside - Dadonov-esque production? Which is pretty close to Miller's production without the other benefits (faceoffs, physical play, fairly responsible defense)?

I hate family guy, but this is that mystery box sketch all over again.

 

[These Are The Days]

"The worst possible thing is we throw a top-6 roster player away for nothing who we could easily re-sign and have contributing for us his entire prime and the Russian guy stays in Russia"

Where did I say nothing? The negotiation rights would be an additional asset on top of something else. He'd go for like a 2nd round pick AND the negotiation rights.

If you want to fork over another $4 million for another Killorn then I can't stop you. Gusev is infinitely better and will come nowhere near that pricetag

 

[CupsOverCash]

What's Gusev's reasonable upside - Dadonov-esque production? Which is pretty close to Miller's production without the other benefits (faceoffs, physical play, fairly responsible defense)?

I hate family guy, but this is that mystery box sketch all over again.

Or the mystery box from ebay. Look it up for a good laugh. There are real world "Peter Griffens" out there.

 

[The Macho King]

Where did I say nothing? The negotiation rights would be an additional asset on top of something else. He'd go for like a 2nd round pick AND the negotiation rights.

If you want to fork over another $4 million for another Killorn then I can't stop you. Gusev is infinitely better and will come nowhere near that pricetag

Show your work.

 

[Sky04]

Where did I say nothing? The negotiation rights would be an additional asset on top of something else. He'd go for like a 2nd round pick AND the negotiation rights.

If you want to fork over another $4 million for another Killorn then I can't stop you. Gusev is infinitely better and will come nowhere near that pricetag

I'm still wondering how you think back to back 50 point seasons aren't worth 4m+ even 5m+ for near 60 points and the different thing he brings to the lineup, how is he Killorn 2.0?

How is Gusev definitely better when he's proven nothing in the NHL? Gusev will get nowhere near 4.5-5.5m? What world do you live in? His buddy Shipachyov signed for 4.5m, Dadonov for 4m, Gusev would come in younger and better than either players if he were to come to the NHL, what's he going to sign? a 3m contract that he could get back home easily? lol.

 

[The Macho King]

I'm still wondering how you think back to back 50 point seasons aren't worth 4m+ even 5m+ for near 60 points and the different thing he brings to the lineup, how is he Killorn 2.0?

How is Gusev definitely better when he's proven nothing in the NHL? Gusev will get nowhere near 4.5-5.5m? What world do you live in? His buddy Shipachyov signed for 4.5m, Dadonov for 4m, Gusev would come in younger and better than either players if he were to come to the NHL, what's he going to sign? a 3m contract that he could get back home easily? lol.

This is a more clear way of saying what I meant the post above.

Also - let's put it out there. Killorn's production is perfectly in line with his pay. He's frustrating because he's inconsistent, but if he was more consistent he'd be making more than what he does. The issue with him is the term on his contract, not the dollar amount.

 

[Sky04]

JT Miller 55-60pt player not worth 4.5m, Gusev who will not only produce more then that but will also sign for nowhere near that price? Count me in chief, where do I sign?

 

[Sky04]

This is a more clear way of saying what I meant the post above.

Also - let's put it out there. Killorn's production is perfectly in line with his pay. He's frustrating because he's inconsistent, but if he was more consistent he'd be making more than what he does. The issue with him is the term on his contract, not the dollar amount.

Lets also make it clear that I'm not advocating for giving Miller a huge contract based on 7 games so far either, I just think the premise is terrible to trade him away for rights and hope that an overseas player slots in perfectly like Miller has so far while taking a sweatheart deal at the same time.

Just like Killorn I'd be weary of giving depth guys term but Yzerman has been handing out term like candy so far.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Gusev is the star in Russian hockey. He takes pride in playing in the motherland and for SKA, a successful club that is well supported by a lot of people with a lot of money, and even Putin is... let's just say he's a big fan. Nobody knows what he's really earning in Russia. And I think it's fair to say he's at least reluctant to leave Russia and its benefits (being a super star in your home country, endorsements, etc.). So if (big if) he comes over he'll look for a big contract. He knows his value (been the best player in the KHL, he's been a huge part of Team Russia's success) and he has leverage (he does not need to leave). And then there's the fact that Yzerman wouldn't have thrown him in to get rid of Garrison if Gusev had said he'd come over.

 

[These Are The Days]

Lets also make it clear that I'm not advocating for giving Miller a huge contract based on 7 games so far either, I just think the premise is terrible to trade him away for rights and hope that an overseas player slots in perfectly like Miller has so far while taking a sweatheart deal at the same time.

Just like Killorn I'd be weary of giving depth guys term but Yzerman has been handing out term like candy so far.

Keep in mind I'm talking about trading Miller for an asset not JUST the rights to Gusev. I'm not only not confident in him I'm equally not confident in the cap crunch. I know you argue that Gusev is a redundant skill set but I feel the same about Miller. We have Killorn, Palat, Erne, Callahan and Paquette. Sure Miller scores more but that's not my concern. My concern is we are down and need a spark and there goes Miller being a bozo. The NYR fans are not wrong about him. I don't know how Yzerman is gonna pull off signing him. If I knew I'd just be here saying don't give him too much too long and trade clauses.

Gusev is one of the best in the world and if we get his rights back on top of whatever asset we get for Miller, he either signs for what we say or he goes back to Russia. I don't see Yzerman paying him more than Miller.

People are misunderstanding my principle here. If we HAVE TO trade Miller then lets do it with the Knights and see if we can get Gusev's rights back so he signs for what Yzerman says.

This is an attempt at a contingency plan not an attempt at a solution to a problem that isn't there.

If Miller can be signed then why trade him? I just don't think he will be able to be signed.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm still wondering how you think back to back 50 point seasons aren't worth 4m+ even 5m+ for near 60 points and the different thing he brings to the lineup, how is he Killorn 2.0?

How is Gusev definitely better when he's proven nothing in the NHL? Gusev will get nowhere near 4.5-5.5m? What world do you live in? His buddy Shipachyov signed for 4.5m, Dadonov for 4m, Gusev would come in younger and better than either players if he were to come to the NHL, what's he going to sign? a 3m contract that he could get back home easily? lol.

I'm not dissecting this entire thing. You're going to say it's too long and accuse me of talking out of my ass like I was with Boucher (who needs to be fired) Filppula (who Flyer fans can't stand) the chemistry of the offense (suddenly better due to Point and Gourde) and pretty much everything about Cooper.

I've said three times now I don't think Miller can be re-signed. If he must be traded let's get an asset as well as the rights to Gusev. We would hold his rights indefinitely and therefore sign him to what WE want. If you think Yzerman would pay Gusev as much as Miller then why get the rights back at all?

I'm not going to debate you on arguably the best KHL player for years now versus a guy who has been with us half a dozen games, has a worse playoff track record than Callahan and cannot stay focused for the duration of a season on a roster that has trouble staying focused.

If I'm crazy for exchanging a potential cap casualty by this summer for an asset and rights to a player who is one of the best in the world who would have no one else competing for him then lock me up.

There's a whole thread here with all the film you could ever want on why Gusev is better than Miller.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'll put it in a flow chart

Can Miller be signed?

Yes

Sign Miller for a friendly deal

Can Miller be signed?

No

Trade him for the best offer we can get. Attempt to get the rights to Gusev back if we can trade with Vegas.

Could we do it?

No

Take the best offer we can minus Gusev rights

 

[HoseEmDown]

Keep in mind I'm talking about trading Miller for an asset not JUST the rights to Gusev. I'm not only not confident in him I'm equally not confident in the cap crunch. I know you argue that Gusev is a redundant skill set but I feel the same about Miller. We have Killorn, Palat, Erne, Callahan and Paquette. Sure Miller scores more but that's not my concern. My concern is we are down and need a spark and there goes Miller being a bozo. The NYR fans are not wrong about him. I don't know how Yzerman is gonna pull off signing him. If I knew I'd just be here saying don't give him too much too long and trade clauses.

Gusev is one of the best in the world and if we get his rights back on top of whatever asset we get for Miller, he either signs for what we say or he goes back to Russia. I don't see Yzerman paying him more than Miller.

People are misunderstanding my principle here. If we HAVE TO trade Miller then lets do it with the Knights and see if we can get Gusev's rights back so he signs for what Yzerman says.

This is an attempt at a contingency plan not an attempt at a solution to a problem that isn't there.

If Miller can be signed then why trade him? I just don't think he will be able to be signed.

What asset, a 2nd round pick? Miller is worth way more than that. Tatar got a 1st, 2nd and 3rd with Miller being similar if not better. Gusev will be a UFA next year so if you don't sign him this offseason his rights are useless as every team can sign him. I don't see him leaving this offseason so would be a waste to try to get his rights. He's also going to want close to Miller money so makes no sense as I think Gourde is a better NHL player than he would be and we aren't paying him 5mil.

If we have to trade Miller we need to target a RD. Someone like Faulk, not some rights we have away and a pick which we don't really need with a good team and pipeline, we need another top 4 RD.

Why can't we sign Miller? We have the cap to do it especially for next year, after that it gets dicey but there's nothing holding us back from giving him 5 this summer.

 

[Sky04]

I'll put it in a flow chart

Can Miller be signed?

Yes

Sign Miller for a friendly deal

Can Miller be signed?

No

Trade him for the best offer we can get. Attempt to get the rights to Gusev back if we can trade with Vegas.

Could we do it?

No

Take the best offer we can minus Gusev rights

Show me how we can't.

 

[Sky04]

I'm not dissecting this entire thing. You're going to say it's too long and accuse me of talking out of my ass like I was with Boucher (who needs to be fired) Filppula (who Flyer fans can't stand) the chemistry of the offense (suddenly better due to Point and Gourde) and pretty much everything about Cooper.

I've said three times now I don't think Miller can be re-signed. If he must be traded let's get an asset as well as the rights to Gusev. We would hold his rights indefinitely and therefore sign him to what WE want. If you think Yzerman would pay Gusev as much as Miller then why get the rights back at all?

I'm not going to debate you on arguably the best KHL player for years now versus a guy who has been with us half a dozen games, has a worse playoff track record than Callahan and cannot stay focused for the duration of a season on a roster that has trouble staying focused.

If I'm crazy for exchanging a potential cap casualty by this summer for an asset and rights to a player who is one of the best in the world who would have no one else competing for him then lock me up.

There's a whole thread here with all the film you could ever want on why Gusev is better than Miller.

Well you do talk out of your ass a lot, so it's hard not to accuse you of it. You've yet to see Miller perform in the playoffs in a Lightning sweater yet you're so sure of his result, if you had taken the word of NYR fans then why is Miller outperforming every expectation so far? It's almost as if results should be taken after the event has happened, it's funnier when you're comparing him to a guy with no NHL experience at all.

Gusev has been the best KHL player for years now? lol well ok then. If we did trade Miller due to cost it sure as hell would be for more than Gusev's rights and whatever else you proposed.

And we could hold his rights forever, doesn't mean he'll sign with US for what WE want...... you assume Yzerman has the leverage in this, how do you come up with this?

 

[These Are The Days]

Show me how we can't.

Because apparently this guy is the bum diggity. He's gonna get 50 points in back to back seasons. Surely Miller's agent is super nice and won't seek to capitalize on it nor this playoff run I'm supposed to wait for that's gonna be totally different this time around. I mean surely we're dealing with someone who will not want a similar salary to guys like Palat and Johnson -who were considered to be on team friendly deals at the time of their signing. We don't have a backup goaltender, Koekkoek, Erne and Paquette to sign as well and only $6 million to do it in 4 months. And surely we don't have Point, McDonagh, Kucherov and half our defense up for new deals in 2 years either. Infeasible! And SURELY there's just no way this guy could ever get an offer sheet.

 

[These Are The Days]

Well you do talk out of your ass a lot, so it's hard not to accuse you of it. You've yet to see Miller perform in the playoffs in a Lightning sweater yet you're so sure of his result, if you had taken the word of NYR fans then why is Miller outperforming every expectation so far? It's almost as if results should be taken after the event has happened, it's funnier when you're comparing him to a guy with no NHL experience at all.

Gusev has been the best KHL player for years now? lol well ok then. If we did trade Miller due to cost it sure as hell would be for more than Gusev's rights and whatever else you proposed.

And we could hold his rights forever, doesn't mean he'll sign with US for what WE want...... you assume Yzerman has the leverage in this, how do you come up with this?

Uh huh... whatever helps you sleep at night.

I call out the team for being complacent and Kucherov goes public saying the same thing. Boucher did so much with so little and yet Senators fans would laugh you out of the building with how badly he f***ed everything up when he got yet another team to quit on him and you crowed Coop to get fired AGAIN but this time you went ahead and did it after 2 games in a season where we probably finish with the league's best record.

But nevermind folks this is just Sunny talking out his ass again. Let's all just agree courting a superstar is just a bad idea because Yzerman has no leverage when he hands said superstar the only possible NHL deal he can be offered and Yzerman faces no consequence of said superstar goes back to Russia.

This Miller guy is a sure fire badass and Sunny should know better after years of watching Ranger games with his Ranger friends and was personally there for game 6 when he saw Miller score 25% of his career playoff points in a single night. This clearly is NOT the case of a small sample size that every agent in the world would not be sure to take advantage of

 

[Werewolf]

Sunny what does your lineup look like?

...from Hose and I largely agree. We are fine next year. The below would be '19-'20 roster. My changes would include moving Callahan's salary. Re-signing Stralman. Re-signing RFA Erne to cheap contract. Its totally doable to keep every single performing contract on this team.

Hose:
Palat(5.3) - Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(9.5) = 23.3
Miller(5.0) - Point(4.5) - Gourde(3.5) = 13
Killorn(4.45) - Johnson(5.0) - Callahan(5.8) = 15.25
Joseph(728k) - Cirelli(728k) - Stephens(833k) = 2.289

Hedman(7.88) - Sergachev(894k) = 8.774
McDonagh(6.5) - Foote(900k) = 7.4
Masin(900k) - Cernak(698k) = 1.598

Vasilevskiy(3.5) - Ingram(759k) = 4.259

Total: $75.87

Werewolf - Expected '19-'20 Cap: ~$80M
Miller(4.8) - Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(9.2) = 22.5
Killorn(4.45) - Point(4.5) - Gourde(4.1) = 13.05
Palat(5.3) - Johnson(5.0) - Joseph(728k) =11.028
Stephens(833k) - Cirelli(728k) - Erne (1.1) = 2.661

Hedman(7.88) - Foote(900k) = 8.78
McDonagh(6.5) - Cernak(698k) = 7.198
Sergachev(894k) - Stralman (3.8) = 4.694

Vasilevskiy(3.5) - Domingue (1.1) = 4.6

Total: $74.511
*above roster needs one forward to serve popcorn - Paquette for $900k
*above roster needs one defenseman on popcorn duty - Vet FA for $1.2M

 

[These Are The Days]

Sunny what does your lineup look like?

...from Hose and I largely agree. We are fine next year. The below would be '19-'20 roster. My changes would include moving Callahan's salary. Re-signing Stralman. Re-signing RFA Erne to cheap contract. Its totally doable to keep every single performing contract on this team.

Hose:
Palat(5.3) - Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(9.5) = 23.3
Miller(5.0) - Point(4.5) - Gourde(3.5) = 13
Killorn(4.45) - Johnson(5.0) - Callahan(5.8) = 15.25
Joseph(728k) - Cirelli(728k) - Stephens(833k) = 2.289

Hedman(7.88) - Sergachev(894k) = 8.774
McDonagh(6.5) - Foote(900k) = 7.4
Masin(900k) - Cernak(698k) = 1.598

Vasilevskiy(3.5) - Ingram(759k) = 4.259

Total: $75.87

Werewolf - Expected '19-'20 Cap: ~$80M
Miller(4.8) - Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(9.2) = 22.5
Killorn(4.45) - Point(4.5) - Gourde(4.1) = 13.05
Palat(5.3) - Johnson(5.0) - Joseph(728k) =11.028
Stephens(833k) - Cirelli(728k) - Erne (1.1) = 2.661
Hedman(7.88) - Foote(900k) = 8.78
McDonagh(6.5) - Cernak(698k) = 7.198
Sergachev(894k) - Stralman (3.8) = 4.694

Vasilevskiy(3.5) - Domingue (1.1) = 4.6

Total: $74.511
*above roster needs one forward to serve popcorn - Paquette for $900k
*above roster needs one defenseman on popcorn duty - Vet FA for $1.2M

That depends, are you asking about this year or the year following?

Based on your figures that's 4.8 million (Miller) + 1.1 million (Erne) + 1.1 million (Domingue) + 900k (Paquette) for a total of $7.9 million when we've got $6.2 million in cap space next year. Now I assume Dotchin, Budaj and Koekkoek are gone but that's not gonna bring it lower than the previous figure.

Unless the cap goes up about another $2 million that is a very hard squeeze and that 2019 defense scares the hell out of me. Makes me think we're gonna be in the market for another experienced defender. I don't think we're gonna roll with a defense where 1/3 of the players are rookies or nearly rookies. We're doing it now with guys like Dotchin, Koekkoek and Sergachev and the results have been brutal at times.

$4.8 million for Miller sounds about right but no matter what way you slice it he's gonna chomp up over half of our remaining cap space for the year. I just don't know if he comes back because of that. Especially if it means him making more than Point ($4.5 million) when he is practically the most important player on our offense not named Kucherov at the moment.

 

[Werewolf]

Whichever year you want to show why we can’t afford the contracts. Specifically you don’t think we can sign Miller. I think we can easily. He wanted $5 in New York. Here in Tampa the same contract nets you more than NY. So he comes in lower than that just cause Taxes.

 

[The Macho King]

I think you guys are underselling what McD and Miller get by about 1 million a piece, but we should still be fine with the cap even considering that.

 

[These Are The Days]

Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(8.5) = 17
Killorn(4.45) - Point(6.5) - Gourde(4.1) = 13.05
Palat(5.3) - Johnson(5.0) - Joseph(728k) =11.028
Stephens(833k) - Cirelli(728k) - Erne (1.1) = 2.661

50% retention on Ryan Callahan for a trade because NO ONE is gonna pay his full salary (2.9)

Hedman(7.88) - Dotchin (2.5) = 10.38
McDonagh(7.0) - Foote (900k) = 7.9
Sergachev(894k) - Stralman (3.8) = 4.694
Cernak(698k)

Defense total = 23.762

Vasilevskiy - (3.5) Dominuge (1.25) = 4.75 million

Grand total is $77.1 million leaving 2.9 million for Miller to sign assuming a $80 million cap. We must also account for Erne and Domingue's extensions into next season's $6 million limit too leaving a $2.9 million AAV as an ideal hit for Miller

For shits and giggles I am assuming we roll with Dotchin going forward and NOT a vet FA, that we do not re-sign Conacher and we trade Koekkoek and Paquette for futures.

Bold = up for extension the next year

The only way we're fitting Miller is if he doesn't want a big raise, McDonagh doesn't think he's a $7 million player and Point takes sweetheart deal to be paid like Johnson and Palat despite being clearly better. Or if the cap is up another couple million then there ya go. But I cannot assume that's what is gonna happen here.

I don't think it's impossible nor do I think I have the correct figures.

I just think it'll be difficult

 

[These Are The Days]

And let's just shove the whole Gusev thing under the bed. The thread is about Miller. I only suggested we re-acquire Gusev's rights because Miller would do nicely on the VGK if we HAD to trade him and it would allow us to negotiate with Gusev indefinitely. Just because his contract expires in Russia during our cap crunch doesn't mean he can sign a 1 year deal and then come over after. He didn't just stop being one of the best players in the world just because we traded his rights. It's like everyone forgot how we used to follow his games.

I want Miller back. But I just don't see it unless everyone cooperates. Especially Point, McDonagh and Kucherov

 

[HoseEmDown]

Stamkos(8.5) - Kucherov(8.5) = 17
Killorn(4.45) - Point(6.5) - Gourde(4.1) = 13.05
Palat(5.3) - Johnson(5.0) - Joseph(728k) =11.028
Stephens(833k) - Cirelli(728k) - Erne (1.1) = 2.661

50% retention on Ryan Callahan for a trade because NO ONE is gonna pay his full salary (2.9)

Hedman(7.88) - Dotchin (2.5) = 10.38
McDonagh(7.0) - Foote (900k) = 7.9
Sergachev(894k) - Stralman (3.8) = 4.694
Cernak(698k)

Defense total = 23.762

Vasilevskiy - (3.5) Dominuge (1.25) = 4.75 million

Grand total is $77.1 million leaving 2.9 million for Miller to sign assuming a $80 million cap. We must also account for Erne and Domingue's extensions into next season's $6 million limit too leaving a $2.9 million AAV as an ideal hit for Miller

For ****s and giggles I am assuming we roll with Dotchin going forward and NOT a vet FA, that we do not re-sign Conacher and we trade Koekkoek and Paquette for futures.

Bold = up for extension the next year

The only way we're fitting Miller is if he doesn't want a big raise, McDonagh doesn't think he's a $7 million player and Point takes sweetheart deal to be paid like Johnson and Palat despite being clearly better. Or if the cap is up another couple million then there ya go. But I cannot assume that's what is gonna happen here.

I don't think it's impossible nor do I think I have the correct figures.

I just think it'll be difficult

If you don't waste 2.5 on Dotchin you'd have plenty of money to sign Miller. Why are you giving Point 6.5 too? Do you think this season and next will be better than the two Kucherov had prior to his bridge deal? Or close to what Stamkos did before his first extension? I like Point but he doesn't have the results to ask for 6.5 yet. Why is Erne getting 1.1? He hasn't done nothing to get a raise on what he makes now, he will sign a 1 year 1 way deal for 800-850k like Koekkoek did last year. We have space for Miller next year, there's no reason we can't resign him.

I also don't see how we are trading Callahan even if we do retain 50%. Unless we are adding to him we aren't getting rid of him that easily unless he puts up 40 points next year.