Is the NBA draft lottery rigged?

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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Cleveland did have the highest lottery odds (well, tied with Denver) in 2003 with 22.5% for the top pick.

As with any conspiracy theory threads about the NHL lottery, it doesn't take much imagination to come up with a conspiracy reason for pretty much every team. The NBA eventually went to the lottery system that it uses today (NHL uses the same procedure); Ernst and Young draws four balls out of 14 and assigns the 1,000 possible combinations.

Unless you think there's a Saul Goodman level of rigging certain balls. Realistically, there haven't been enough drawings to create a significant sample size.
 

Terry Yake

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Aug 5, 2013
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Ewing and 2012 are the ones that i believe were actually rigged. 2014 was kind of sketchy too with the cavs having a 1% chance of winning the lottery

i really don't think '03 was rigged. the cavs had been absolutely awful for a while leading up to '03
 

Voight

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Ewing and 2012 are the ones that i believe were actually rigged. 2014 was kind of sketchy too with the cavs having a 1% chance of winning the lottery

i really don't think '03 was rigged. the cavs had been absolutely awful for a while leading up to '03

2014 was 100% sketchy. It helps those draft lottery truthers when they say the plan was for LBJ to leave for four years while the Cavs sucked and gained assets for his return.

Ewing one was so obvious :laugh:

Knicks are a joke... star center consensus #1 pick.... too much money at stake to make this fair :laugh: :laugh:

IMO if it was truly rigged, the Lakers - the NBA's marquee franchise - would have won one of the last 3 lotteries instead of coming in 2nd every time.
 

Vamos Rafa

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Boston ( through Brooklyn - again thank you Billy King ) had the best odds in the last Draft Lottery so I'm not sure what you're referring to. :dunno:

This year might've been a blessing for them. Lonzo Ball looks to be the first legit baller (pun intended maybe) that was drafted 2nd overall since Durant.
 

Quid Pro Clowe

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I dunno if it is or not, but the Kings almost always draft lower than what they finish. Had the best odds the year Blake Griffin came out and ended up picking 4th
 

Neutrinos

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I dunno if it is or not, but the Kings almost always draft lower than what they finish. Had the best odds the year Blake Griffin came out and ended up picking 4th

The only year the Kings moved up in the draft was '89, the year they took Pervis Ellison #1

I believe Minnesota has never moved up in the draft

Toronto has only moved up in the draft once and that was the year they drafted Bargnani


But, when hometown phenom Derrick Rose is draft eligible, somehow the struggling Bulls win the lottery despite having only a 1% chance


Food for thought: I've heard it wouldn't be illegal if the NBA rigged the lottery since it is in fact their own lottery
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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Cleveland did have the highest lottery odds (well, tied with Denver) in 2003 with 22.5% for the top pick.

As with any conspiracy theory threads about the NHL lottery, it doesn't take much imagination to come up with a conspiracy reason for pretty much every team. The NBA eventually went to the lottery system that it uses today (NHL uses the same procedure); Ernst and Young draws four balls out of 14 and assigns the 1,000 possible combinations.

Unless you think there's a Saul Goodman level of rigging certain balls. Realistically, there haven't been enough drawings to create a significant sample size.

I wonder if they just keep doing it until they get the desired result


The Lakers have moved up twice in the last 3 years to land the 2nd overall pick

Combined the Raps, Kings and Wolves have moved up twice since '89 - despite obviously having far more chances in the lottery
 
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Neutrinos

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As a Wolves fan I can definitively say that the they have never moved up in the draft lottery or gotten the first overall pick. Since 1990 the Wolves have had 15 chances in the lottery. In those years they had the worst record 2 times, the second worst 2 times, the third worst record 3 times, and the fifth-seventh worst record 7 times (so it is not like they were limited by late lottery odds).

They have gotten a top 3 pick in the lottery three times. In 1992 they had the worst record and ended up with pick #3; in 2008 they had the third worst record and kept pick #3; and in 2011 they had the worst record and moved down to pick #2.

Overall they've moved down in the draft 9 times due to the lottery. They moved down one spot 5 times (falling out of the top 3 once), two spots 3 times (twice falling out of the top 3), and three spots 1 time (also out of top 3).

Looking at the statistics, the probability that the Wolves should have gotten the first overall pick at least once is 86.7%. The probability that they should have moved up (or kept the #1 pick) in the draft at least once is 98.3%.

- some frustrated Wolves fan over at RealGM back in '13


Wolves have since drafted Towns with the 1st overall pick, but they had the best odds that year, so it stands that the Wolves have yet to move up in the lottery
 

VoluntaryDom

Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
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I wonder if they just keep doing it until they get the desired result


The Lakers have moved up twice in the last 3 years to land the 2nd overall pick

Combined the Raps, Kings and Wolves have moved up twice since '89 - despite obviously having far more chances in the lottery

We are happy with Towns though.
 

Brodeur

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I wonder if they just keep doing it until they get the desired result



They (Ernst & Young) does the lottery drawing with team representatives present backstage as witnesses. Ie, not the same people who are representing the teams for the TV reveal. Seems a bit much for a third party firm to rig a drawing and have every lottery club give the thumbs up.

Again, the sample size just isn't that great. Even if you have the best odds, you still have a 70+% chance to get bumped back. Last year's result has no bearing on the next drawing.

The odds for the NBA lottery have changed over the years. Let's take Minnesota in 1992. They had a 11/66 chance of winning the top pick, or roughly an 83% chance of not getting the top pick. That was the year Orlando got lucky and won with a 1/66 chance. So Minnesota had a 11/65 chance of getting the second overall pick. Still an 83% chance of not getting the second pick.
 

Terry Yake

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i'm fine with the lakers getting the #2 pick the past two years because it got them ingram and ball

i'm bummed they didn't get it in '15 because KAT is a beast and I wish he was a laker
 

Voight

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i'm fine with the lakers getting the #2 pick the past two years because it got them ingram and ball

i'm bummed they didn't get it in '15 because KAT is a beast and I wish he was a laker

Granted if they picked KAT that year they probably wouldn't of ended up being bad enough to pick Ingram and Ball. But as a UK fan it would have been sick to see him join the long line of HOF Laker centers.
 

VoluntaryDom

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- some frustrated Wolves fan over at RealGM back in '13


Wolves have since drafted Towns with the 1st overall pick, but they had the best odds that year, so it stands that the Wolves have yet to move up in the lottery

Part of the reason I am suspicious. ;)
 

Brodeur

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Part of the reason I am suspicious. ;)

Here are the T-Wolves odds throughout the year:

1990: 10.61%
1991: 7.58%
1992: 16.67%
1993: 15.15%
1994: 16.4%
1995: 18.2%
1996: 12.98%
1999: 8.9%
2005: 0.5%
2006: 5.3%
2007: 5.3%
2008: 13.8%
2009: 7.6%
2010: 19.9%
2011: 25%
2012: 1.1%
2013: 1.7%
2014: 0.6%
2015: 25% (they won)
2016: 8.8%

Even with 25% odds, you still have a 75% chance of getting knocked down. Some people will claim conspiracy. I will claim math.
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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Here are the T-Wolves odds throughout the year:

1990: 10.61%
1991: 7.58%
1992: 16.67%
1993: 15.15%
1994: 16.4%
1995: 18.2%
1996: 12.98%
1999: 8.9%
2005: 0.5%
2006: 5.3%
2007: 5.3%
2008: 13.8%
2009: 7.6%
2010: 19.9%
2011: 25%
2012: 1.1%
2013: 1.7%
2014: 0.6%
2015: 25% (they won)
2016: 8.8%

Even with 25% odds, you still have a 75% chance of getting knocked down. Some people will claim conspiracy. I will claim math.

Mathematically speaking, what are the odds the Lakers would go from 4th to 2nd, hold at 2nd and move from 3rd to 2nd in consecutive years?
 

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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San Diego
Mathematically speaking, what are the odds the Lakers would go from 4th to 2nd, hold at 2nd and move from 3rd to 2nd in consecutive years?

Again, look at it as an individual result rather than a combination. Coincidence is not the same as conspiracy.

2015: Odds of going from 4th to 2nd: 12.6%
2016: Odds of holding 2nd: 18.8%
2017: Odds of going from 3rd to 2nd: 15.7%

2015:
Odds of moving up: 37.8%
Odds of staying put: 9.9%
Odds of moving down: 52.3%

2016:
Odds of moving up: 19.9%
Odds of staying put: 18.8%
Odds of moving down: 61.3%

2017:
Odds of moving up: 30.3%
Odds of staying put: 15.6%
Odds of dropping: 53.1%

Maybe you're playing poker and you shove all-in three times where you're getting slightly worse than 50/50 odds. Maybe you're lucky and get the better end all three times.
 

VoluntaryDom

Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
Oct 31, 2016
23,285
5,532
Tampa FL
Here are the T-Wolves odds throughout the year:

1990: 10.61%
1991: 7.58%
1992: 16.67%
1993: 15.15%
1994: 16.4%
1995: 18.2%
1996: 12.98%
1999: 8.9%
2005: 0.5%
2006: 5.3%
2007: 5.3%
2008: 13.8%
2009: 7.6%
2010: 19.9%
2011: 25%
2012: 1.1%
2013: 1.7%
2014: 0.6%
2015: 25% (they won)
2016: 8.8%

Even with 25% odds, you still have a 75% chance of getting knocked down. Some people will claim conspiracy. I will claim math.
At some point in 92-96 or 2010-11 you would expect us to win...
 

Brodeur

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
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15,276
San Diego
At some point in 92-96 or 2010-11 you would expect us to win...

Odds of not winning #1 (92-96): .83333 * .8485 * .846 * .818 * .8702 = .4258

From a purely mathematical standpoint, 57.42% chance they should have hit at least once during those five drawings. It's not like 42.58% of not winning is an unlikely outcome.

If something which had a 42.58% chance happens, I wouldn't claim it was rigged. And again, each year is an independent drawing. You aren't going to see a normal statistical distribution from 20+ lotteries.
 

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