Is it me...

[thestonedkoala]

Or do the top end goalies this year feel like they are going to fall, especially if Los Angeles trades the pick for a team with a lot of goalies? The reason I ask is I was doing a mock and the Schwarz and Montoya always drop out of the first and almost down to the middle of the first round. It feels way to low for them to go...

Click to read more...

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

Or do the top end goalies this year feel like they are going to fall, especially if Los Angeles trades the pick for a team with a lot of goalies? The reason I ask is I was doing a mock and the Schwarz and Montoya always drop out of the first and almost down to the middle of the first round. It feels way to low for them to go...

IMO, more and more teams are going to realize what I have said for a while: it's futile to draft goalies too early because the overall quality of goaltending across the board is very high AND because this quality often comes from guys who were drafted very late.

It's just pointless and utterly stupid to waste a high draft pick on a guy who will be ready when he is 24-25 years old when you can draft guys who will jump on the top 6 forwards in 1 to 3 years sometimes.

There is the odd exception, but it's just profudly dumb to draft guys like Leclaire, etc. in the top 20. It's a waste of precious ressource on several levels. Keep in mind that goaltending requires extra care as far as development. If you draft North Americans, you must find them a place to play. With a skater it's never really an issue ever. You can also get handcuffed, as the jackets were in 2002 when they had to upgrade their pick because they didn't want to end up with Kari Lehtonen at 3rd overall when they already had Denis/Leclaire.

In the next few years the quality of goaltenders in the draft is going to continue to shine but people are going to figure out it's futile to draft them this early unless they are truly specials. And if they're all that great, they ain't that special anymore.

You can always make room for a quality D or quality forward but goaltenders? There is a limit on your needs. Not saying they aren't valuable but how much is enough? They don't even have great trade value because once again, the league is shining with quality goalies almost everywhere.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

That's one reason mock drafts are a waste of time...

 

[BrettNYR]

IMO, more and more teams are going to realize what I have said for a while: it's futile to draft goalies too early because the overall quality of goaltending across the board is very high AND because this quality often comes from guys who were drafted very late.

It's just pointless and utterly stupid to waste a high draft pick on a guy who will be ready when he is 24-25 years old when you can draft guys who will jump on the top 6 forwards in 1 to 3 years sometimes.

There is the odd exception, but it's just profudly dumb to draft guys like Leclaire, etc. in the top 20. It's a waste of precious ressource on several levels. Keep in mind that goaltending requires extra care as far as development. If you draft North Americans, you must find them a place to play. With a skater it's never really an issue ever. You can also get handcuffed, as the jackets were in 2002 when they had to upgrade their pick because they didn't want to end up with Kari Lehtonen at 3rd overall when they already had Denis/Leclaire.

In the next few years the quality of goaltenders in the draft is going to continue to shine but people are going to figure out it's futile to draft them this early unless they are truly specials. And if they're all that great, they ain't that special anymore.

You can always make room for a quality D or quality forward but goaltenders? There is a limit on your needs. Not saying they aren't valuable but how much is enough? They don't even have great trade value because once again, the league is shining with quality goalies almost everywhere.

Great post. You are completely right, unless you're getting Patrick Roy the second, you shouldn't draft a goalie in the top 20, or the first round for that matter.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Exactly, good post Vlad, but if you saw Schwarz at like 30th would you have a ehart attack?

 

[Cabin Mirror]

I agree with Vlad. You can get an Andrew Raycroft or David Aebischer after the first round. Personally, I think the best bet is to draft a defenseman.

 

[cagney]

While I agree with Vlad's take on this I'd have to say that I don't really expect the trend of drafting goalies early to change. It's true that in a lot of the mock drafts around here the goalies tend to fall (often as far as out of the top 20) but OTOH, I've seen a number of rankings done by professional services where goalies stay inside the top 10 or 15 (THN, McKeens etc.). I'd be more surprised to see Schwarz there at 30 than I would be to see both him and Montoya gone by the 10th pick.

 

[West]

Or do the top end goalies this year feel like they are going to fall, especially if Los Angeles trades the pick for a team with a lot of goalies? The reason I ask is I was doing a mock and the Schwarz and Montoya always drop out of the first and almost down to the middle of the first round. It feels way to low for them to go...

I think that everyone agrees that Schwarz and Montoya while good are a step below Luongo, Fleury, Lehtonen(sp) which would drop them a bit. Secondly most posters here have a very high opinion of their teams goalteading depth and talent level.

ex. Carolina will not take a goaltender because they have Cam Ward, while I've always liked Ward I'd say that he's fifty fifty to become a true number one goalie due to the fact that not many excellent junior goalies can.

Or people saying Minnesota won't take a goalie because of Josh Harding. While Harding has done really well in the WHL I couldn't help but notice that Dustin Slade but up great numbers after replacing him and nobody is calling Slade a sure fire NHLer.

You can make a pretty good arguement like the above for just about 2/3 of the teams in the league.

Personally I feel anywhere from say 8-18 is reasonable place for them to go.

 

[MacDaddy TLC*]

The fact there is a good number of quality netminders available may see them drop if teams think they can grab another position and still get a quality keeper later.

 

[SeLaine]

[/QUOTE]
ex. Carolina will not take a goaltender because they have Cam Ward, while I've always liked Ward I'd say that he's fifty fifty to become a true number one goalie due to the fact that not many excellent junior goalies can.

Or people saying Minnesota won't take a goalie because of Josh Harding. While Harding has done really well in the WHL I couldn't help but notice that Dustin Slade but up great numbers after replacing him and nobody is calling Slade a sure fire NHLer.

You can make a pretty good arguement like the above for just about 2/3 of the teams in the league.

Personally I feel anywhere from say 8-18 is reasonable place for them to go.[/QUOTE]
Totally agree with this. I would be shocked if either Schwarz or Montoya were available after pick # 20.

 

[Bluenote13]

Picking goalies too high has been a trend in the last decade. Some are totally worth the price of admission - Lehtonen, Fleury, Luongo. Others get overrated, especially on size. If this was a few years back, Devan Dubnyk would go top 15. But since the Desrochers, Finley & Krahn picks i think it's becoming apparent that a tall goalie does not necessarily mean a good one, or at least one worthy of a top 1st round pick.

That being said, I love both top goalies this year. I think they are both very good and worthy of a pick anywhere from #7 to #20. Schwarz's physical attributes are well documented, but I think Montoya will surprise alot of people. He's a money goalie.

 

[Jungle Boy]

IMO, more and more teams are going to realize what I have said for a while: it's futile to draft goalies too early because the overall quality of goaltending across the board is very high AND because this quality often comes from guys who were drafted very late.

It's just pointless and utterly stupid to waste a high draft pick on a guy who will be ready when he is 24-25 years old when you can draft guys who will jump on the top 6 forwards in 1 to 3 years sometimes.

There is the odd exception, but it's just profudly dumb to draft guys like Leclaire, etc. in the top 20. It's a waste of precious ressource on several levels. Keep in mind that goaltending requires extra care as far as development. If you draft North Americans, you must find them a place to play. With a skater it's never really an issue ever. You can also get handcuffed, as the jackets were in 2002 when they had to upgrade their pick because they didn't want to end up with Kari Lehtonen at 3rd overall when they already had Denis/Leclaire.

In the next few years the quality of goaltenders in the draft is going to continue to shine but people are going to figure out it's futile to draft them this early unless they are truly specials. And if they're all that great, they ain't that special anymore.

You can always make room for a quality D or quality forward but goaltenders? There is a limit on your needs. Not saying they aren't valuable but how much is enough? They don't even have great trade value because once again, the league is shining with quality goalies almost everywhere.

AGREED!

 

[thestonedkoala]

Minnesota will 'probably' take a goalie in the 2nd or definitely 3rd round.