Prospect Info: 2014 NHL Draft / Pick #118 - Igor Shestyorkin (G) - Part II

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Levitate

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Jul 29, 2004
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If gaa is the only stat line you look at you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how goalies actually effect the game. Hank faced tougher shots then every other goalie in the NHL last year from a defense that was easy to beat 1 on 1. Shots against ins a horrible indicator of how a goalie is preforming. Goalie ONE takes 40 shots and saves 38 of them. However 38 were from the outside and not off a pass. Goalie TWO faces 15 shots and lets 4 in. 10 of those shots were from the outside while 2 were on the break away and 3 off one timers from in close. Which goalie had the tougher game? Which goalie does save % and GAA say had the tougher game?

I love Hank and think he's certainly the best goaltender the Rangers have ever had in the modern era, but he was not good or his usual self last season. He's always had to face a lot of tough shots and he usually does a better job than he did last year. It was an obvious down year for him, no question. He has to rebound or the Rangers could be in trouble.

I don't think it'd be rushing Shestyorkin to come over next year and be Lundqvist's backup. He's going to be getting plenty of games over the rest of Lundqvist's contract if he does because they'll need to lighten Lundqvist's load. Hell, Shestyorkin could even take over the starting spot in a couple of years in that case. There's a lot up in the air with goaltending at the moment.

Regardless, Shestyorkin is playing in the second best league in the world and putting of phenomenal numbers, he's getting plenty of games and experience, I'm not sure he needs more years to develop in the KHL at this point...can't learn how to play in the NHL if you don't actually play in the NHL and at this point it looks like his biggest obstacle will be adjusting to the NHL.

So, we'll see, I'm not really expecting him to buy out his contract and come over, but you never know.
 
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SlapshotTheMovie

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Jan 18, 2013
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I also watched our games. He was really bad last season. Do you disagree with that?

You can't have it both ways. Either you apply the same standards to Hank as you do to Staal (and previously Girardi) or you don't apply any standards, and any previous team legend gets a free ride. A late 30's goalie who's struggling to even put up average numbers can not go uncontested for a team thats trying to win. Doesn't matter what you've accomplished, gotta get rid of sentiment when you haven't won a Championship in over 20 years. You have to let results decide your decisions. There's no good option right now, so Hank will have another season to show what he can do, but another season like last season, and his starting job should be every much on the line as Staal's is this season.


Hank had his worst season the NHL last year. However his worst year was still better then about 23 other starting goalies. How am I trying to have anything both ways? The numbers don't lie. You are just using flawed numbers. I explained how they are flawed in the last post and you ignored them.

Using a hero system of last year Dan Girardi was in the bottom 4 defenders in the NHL. I don't mean that as a group. He was literally the worst defender with arguably 3 worse then him.
girardi.png

This is the hero chart for him vs the average 3rd line defenders. Icetime for a player with his other numbres shows how bad AV was at understanding where the talent on his team was. However everything else is garbage. His assist got a buff because he was playing with the best players on our team. He earned those numbers but his shotgen and shotsup are a f***ing joke.

Marc Staal is a 6m dollar below average 3rd liner.
staal.png


These arnt having it both ways. This is them playing some of the worst hockey in the NHL vs Hank playing the worst of his career behind them but still playing a much more complete and better game of hockey then most Goalies in the NHL. Everyone says Raanta had the better season. Raanta faced far less difficult shots. Most coming from the outside. The rangers blocked almost twice as many shots on ice with Raanta as they did with Hank. AKA they were playing more defensively to protect the goalie. If you measure the OpS% for the season they are the same. Hanks worst season saves are the same as Raanta's best season saves. Thats also with Hank having worse defense in front of him.

Now if you want to look at how stats affect the rest of the team when Raanta was in net the rangers player more defensively and had almost a 24% chance of break out LESS then when Hank was in net. Meaning the rangers got out of the zone faster and more frequently with Hank in net. Because they are able to break out more frequently they were able to score more goals. The rangers score more goals off the break out then almost every other team in the NHL so that is kind of a really important stat don't you think?

Stats don't lie. Your eyes do. You are watching a game and you see someone out of position and get beat easily and a goal is scored. Your eyes tell you the player out of position was at fault on the play. However what the stats see and your eyes almost always miss is the the player out of position that got beat was covering the wrong player because someone else missed their coverage and they had to adjust on the fly but was unable to. Your eyes see a player turn over the puck every game and you label them a turn over machine. What the stats see is they make 200 passes and 20 of them were intercepted meaning they have a 90% success rate and 10% failure rate. Then you have another player who doesnt play an offensive game and makes 1 turnover. You think its no big deal. However they only made 1o passes so its the same success vs failure rate the difference being the first player who gets trashed for being a turn over machine added so many more completed passes. When I say YOUR eyes i don't mean you as a person but YOUR as more of a EVERY hockey fan. I am no different. However I have come to embrace the fact that the way most people look at goalies is extremely flawed.

GAA and Save % are the 2 worst ways to measure a goalie. Difficulty of shot can be measured now. Distance of shot can be measured now. Quality of shooter can be measured now. You rather take 15 shots from crosby and ovi or 15 shots from tanner glass and jasper fast? Every logical person would conclude the goalie facing fast and glass would have the better GAA and save % but does that make them the better goalie?
 

haveandare

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Jul 2, 2009
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Really hope he can somehow come over next year. What more can he do there? IMO the only question now is how much of his success comes from being on a very strong team in a league with poor parity? Won’t find out for certain until he’s here.
 
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Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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Couldn't watch the first 2 periods, but Shesterkin is doing reasonably well here, though SKA is obviously dominating Loco. The Czar just stopped a breakaway with an athletic move on the Loco forward who made multiple moves to get Shesterkin to go right, but then he stuck his left leg out and blocked the shot.

EDIT: 36 saves on 37 shots. .973 save percentage for the day, so he improved on his mediocre 1.20GAA and .954% from before the game.
 
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Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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He really is something. I'm very curious how he will translate to the NHL, and exactly how good he will be.

The KHL is a better league than the AHL. I watch both regularly and it's not even close when it comes to the quality of play. SKA can easily compete in the NHL. Won't win the Stanley Cup, but would be a borderline playoff team, maybe even win a round. CSKA, Dynamo Moscow, a few other teams could hold up evenly against non-playoff NHL squads. A team like Dynamo Riga, which always seems to be at the bottom, still has a bunch of former AHL players. The KHL parity is terrible, but mostly because the top teams are good, not because the bottom teams are awful. What I mean is that SKA is much better than top AHL teams, while Riga is probably on par with bottom AHL teams. Naturally if you play an equivalent of an average NHL team vs an equivalent of a terrible AHL team, the result is very one-sided. However, that still does not mean that the KHL is in any way inferior to the AHL, no matter how you slice it, no matter the opponent.

If Shesterkin was putting up these kinds of numbers in the AHL, he may have been regarded as the NHL's top prospect outside the NHL who was already drafted or at least top 5. Granted there are issues moving from Europe to North America, but there's the fact that he plays against stronger competition than he would've in the AHL.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Dec 8, 2013
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He's wasting his time and we are wasting a player who is already an NHL'er playing any more than just this season in the KHL. Let him buy out the final year of his contact, put bonuses in that are really easy to reach so he gets that year back, and then he starts next season with Hank as our two goalies. He was the best goalie in the KHL last season, got robbed of goalie of the year. This year it seems like he won't be getting robbed of that, two years dominating this league is enough.
 

Levitate

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Jul 29, 2004
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He's wasting his time and we are wasting a player who is already an NHL'er playing any more than just this season in the KHL. Let him buy out the final year of his contact, put bonuses in that are really easy to reach so he gets that year back, and then he starts next season with Hank as our two goalies. He was the best goalie in the KHL last season, got robbed of goalie of the year. This year it seems like he won't be getting robbed of that, two years dominating this league is enough.

It's up to him...I wouldn't be surprised if the Rangers were happy to have him come over but he's gotta make that choice.

Goalies on top teams put up stupid numbers in the KHL. Sorokin and Samsanov are also killing it this year. Coming to NA will be an adjustment for him.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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I find it curious how he started these last two games. Koskinen is backing him up, so he theoretically is available to play. Shestyorkin had played a lot of games in a row, yet he has kept playing, so maybe he has completely taken over the #1 job? Or maybe Koskinen starts the next few games and the rotation will start again from there.
 

Rangers in 7

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Dec 17, 2015
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Granted there are issues moving from Europe to North America, but there's the fact that he plays against stronger competition than he would've in the AHL.

my only disagreement with what you wrote would be his issues moving across the pond...do you mean in a comfort level sense or a play sense. I only ask because goalies have the least transition, the nets are the same size :help:
 
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The Crypto Guy

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Jun 26, 2017
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Feel like that's kind of a slap in the face, they don't let him play in potentially the record breaking game? Which they did win but c'on, guy just won the last 8 straight games for SKA and 11 of those 15 games to get to that game. Kinda wish Mikko and SKA ended up losing. Which they almost did.
 
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